The Mental Militia Forums

Special Interest => Money, Commerce, and Taxation => Topic started by: Silver on April 27, 2004, 05:33:54 pm

Title: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 27, 2004, 05:33:54 pm
Edited December 2014: there have been some changes in reputable gold dealers; I've put strikeouts on old info and [ these brackets ]  around updated info in the text below.
-Silver


I'm deliberately not going to try and convince anyone to buy gold.  There's plenty of information on that topic, excellent web sites include 321Gold (http://www.321gold.com), Kitco (http://www.kitco.com), The Daily Reckoning (http://www.dailyreckoning.com) especially the rantings of the Mogambo Guru (despite the name and the attitude, this guy speaks a lot of truth) and the book Financial Reckoning Day (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0471449733/102-2999383-4990549?v=glance).  Just don't read the book at night, you'll have nightmares.

My premise, based on conversations and correspondence, is that there are many people who want to buy gold, but don't know how, and are afraid to make mistakes.  Gold is expensive, and no one wants to lose their money.  So here's a very short take on how to buy gold.  I'll be glad to answer questions.

1) Buy American Eagle gold coins.  Why?  Well, there are the patriotic reasons, and all proceeds go to pay the national debt rather than funding new madness, and they are made from gold mined in America, and they are darn pretty.  The primary reason to buy Eagles: the IRS. 

Gold coin sales (TO you) are not reported to the IRS.  If you redeem (sell to a dealer) more than 20 coins (the law seems to state 20 coins,  not 20 troy ounces) in a year, dealers must report the transaction to the IRS, UNLESS the coins in question are Eagles.  Then there is no reporting.  You are still responsible for reporting the capital gains on your self-incrimination form, but the dealer won't automatically rat on you.

My second favorite, for diversity and if you have objections to Eagles, are Canadian Maple Leafs.  Unlike Eagles, which are alloyed with silver and copper to make the metal harder and the coins more durable, Maple Leafs are .999 fine gold, the pure product.  They are soft and easily scratched or blemished.  The Eagles actually weigh more than face value; a 1 oz Eagle weighs more than 1 oz. but has exactly 1 oz of gold in it.

Krugerands are alloyed and demand less of a premium than Eagles.  Gold is gold, the only difference is the tax treatment.  Congress passed these laws and Congress can change them, but those are the rules today.

2) Buy from a reputable dealer.  My favorite is Burt Blumert and his Camino Company.  You can find his telephone numbers via LewRockwell.com (http://www.lewrockwell.com), click on "Gold Price" in the upper left corner of the page. [Burt died in 2009.  Contact Camino at www.caminocompany.com]

Why Burt?  Because he is an honorable man with decades of experience in the coin business.  When you send a bank check for hundreds or thousands of dollars to some stranger, you need to know that they will give you the gold, no matter what.  Burt has been put to the ultimate test while shipping gold to me: the entire shipment was stolen.  Camino Coin sent a replacement almost before I noticed the delay and found out what had happened.  He was able to cover a $100k loss from his own pocket while the insurance claim was processed. 

Most gold coin dealers play the gold market, buying futures and such.  It's weird, but more of them go out of business when gold is going up (as it is today) than going down.  When a small, new dealer goes belly-up, people who haven't gotten their coins are out of luck, and out of their money.  Camino has been in business for years and will take care of you.  You need that kind of confidence in your gold dealer.

I've bought from Cheapergold.com, Tulving, GoldMasters.net, and others.  I don't recommend them.  CheaperGold played games with my bank checks, cashing them but waiting up to a month, in one case, to deliver the goods.  Not acceptable.  Tulving sent $8,000 worth of gold coins uninsured via UPS, who left the package laying on my front porch where anyone on the busy street could have scooped it up. (edited to add: I've since learned that Tulving carries private insurance on all shipments.  I'm still chapped at UPS for leaving a lot of gold laying on my front porch, but that's not Tulving's fault.  If you can swing a purchase of 20 oz of gold or 500 oz of silver, Tulving has by far the best prices.) [Tulving went bankrupt in 2014]  Goldmasters has been the second best after Camino, but why compromise when there is such a great resource?  The main advantage of Goldmasters is that they have a great web interface.  The main drawback is that they don't mess around; you send payment in 24 hours or else.

3) Buy regularly.  While I've converted a significant chunk of my liquid financial assets to gold and silver, I don't recommend that for everyone.  Believe it or not, the point of owning gold is to sleep better at night. It has value that won't vanish when the American Empire collapses.  A silver quarter will ALWAYS buy a loaf of bread.  That's peace of mind.  If you move everything into gold, you'll start watching the price like a hawk, and losing sleep.  It's not worth it.  Just buy a bit every month, and watch your hoard grow, and when the poop hits the propeller, you'll truly understand why owning gold is essential.

So make it a savings plan.  Figure out how much you can save in gold each month.  No matter how big or small that number, you can work with it.  Place an order every month or three.  Build your hoard. 

Everyone can afford gold, its only a question of how much.  Here are some current prices, approximate only:
April 27, 2004                                                                             UPDATE on April 28, after gold was hammered today
1 oz Eagle: $421  tube of 20 x 1 oz: $8,420                         1 oz Eagle $404 tube of 20 x 1 oz $8,080 
1 oz. Maple Leaf: $413.50                                                  1 oz. Maple Leaf: $404
1 oz. Krugerand: $407.49                                                   1 oz. Krugerand: $392

0.5 oz Eagle: $217
0.25 oz Eagle: $109
0.10 oz Eagle: $45

4000 pre-1964 US quarters, 90% silver, about 715 troy oz: about $5,000 delivered.  Heavy!

It's easy.  Camino coin doesn't even ask for bank checks, although they ship faster if you send one.
Just pick up the phone, talk to the nice folks, order your gold, send them a check redeemable for
worthless bits of green paper.  In a few days, the US post office will hand deliver a lovely, heavy,
insured and registered package to your doorstep, and ask you to sign for it.  You will have traded
paper for gold.  There's nothing quite like it.

Peace,

Silver
 
[edited May 13, 2008 to correct information on Tulving, update gold prices]

Gold coin price update on May 13, 2008
                                                                       
1 oz Eagle: $995.45  tube of 20 x 1 oz: $19,356 
1 oz. Maple Leaf: $986.19
1 oz. Krugerand: $986.19                                                   

0.5 oz Eagle: $565
0.25 oz Eagle: not available
0.10 oz Eagle: $133.60

Don't you wish you had bought some gold 5 years ago, when this post was written?

Just think how you will feel in 2014, after the coming hyperinflation has done its work!

Peace,

Silver

[edited December 8, 2014 to update information on Camino and Tulving]
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on April 27, 2004, 06:22:29 pm
Obligatory DittoHead: "Yeah, what he said."

Call me unpatriotic, but I think the Canadian Maple Leafs* are prettier. :o

For the curious:

The US, Mexico, Britain and South Africa produce 22 kt coins.
Canada, Australia and China produce 24 kt coins.

The less-than-pure coins that claim to be 1 troy ounce contain one net troy
ounce of gold. While they all are 22 kt, they may look different due the different
blend of metals used to make the 22 kt alloy. For example, the US Eagle is a pale
gold color and the Krugerand is coppery. I think this is due to greater or lesser
amounts of silver or copper.

Bear

*<PEDANTIC=ON> I know the plural of leaf is leaves, but leaf is part of the proper
name.</PEDANTIC>


 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: mantispid on April 27, 2004, 06:46:57 pm
I think the Australian and Chinese coins are prettiest. ;)


Now, the next thing to touch on.. how the heck should you store your gold?
Title: Got gold?
Post by: enemyofthestate on April 27, 2004, 08:01:12 pm
Quote
Tulving sent $8,000 worth of gold coins uninsured via UPS, who left the package laying on my front porch where anyone on the busy street could have scooped it up.
I've dealt with Tulving and never had problem.

Quote
  Now, the next thing to touch on.. how the heck should you store your gold?
A safe?  A pretty good safe can be bought for a couple hundred dollars.  I suggst bolting it to the floor unless it weighs about a zillion pounds or get one of those floor safes.  I know one fellow who keeps his gold in his gun safe.
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Galahad on April 27, 2004, 08:12:36 pm
I have also had a good experience with Tulving.
http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html#silver (http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html#silver)

Another good dealer is:
http://www.golddealer.com/bullionpage.html (http://www.golddealer.com/bullionpage.html)

 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: mantispid on April 27, 2004, 08:13:40 pm
Quote
A safe?  A pretty good safe can be bought for a couple hundred dollars.  I suggst bolting it to the floor unless it weighs about a zillion pounds or get one of those floor safes.  I know one fellow who keeps his gold in his gun safe.
Hmm.. what about a bank or credit union's safe deposit boxes?
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: enemyofthestate on April 27, 2004, 11:22:35 pm
Quote
Hmm.. what about a bank or credit union's safe deposit boxes?
My personal preference is not to use a safe deposit box.  A safe deposit box is a safe place but it is also under the control of the institution that owns it.  That means it is only accessible during regular hours and, while that may not be a paticular burden, it also means that law enforcement and the tax man has access it it.   Most banks are very good at respecting your everyday privacy but they will not fight the federals over it.  If the IRS shows up with seizure papers your safe deposit box is toast.  If you think there is any danger of becoming a 'person of interest', a safe deposit box may not be a good place to keep your gold and silver.  Especially if you think you may need to vacate in a hurry.

OTOH, a safe deposit box may be a good idea if you live in an area with a high rate of burglarlies or home invasions and the local laws mandate victim disarmament.  I don't live it such an area (yet)  so I prefer to keep my few gold coins close to hand.

If you die, your widow cannot get into the box without someone there to inventory the contents.  That was a show stopper for me.  I've left instructions with my wife that, in the event of my death or disappearance, she is to empty anything valuables from the safe, throw in a couple of old guns, and claim I was using it as gun safe.  I've already paid all the taxes on the money and valuables in there and I'll be damned if I'll make it easier for the feddies to f**k over my heirs.

As usual YMMV.
Title: Got gold?
Post by: rockchucker on April 27, 2004, 11:44:36 pm
Quote
A safe?  A pretty good safe can be bought for a couple hundred dollars.  I suggst bolting it to the floor unless it weighs about a zillion pounds or get one of those floor safes.  I know one fellow who keeps his gold in his gun safe.
Brown Safe Mfg. (http://www.brownsafe.com/index.html) has info on what the various safe ratings (http://www.brownsafe.com/brownsafe11.htm) actually mean, and other tips.

Also consider a cheaper safe as a decoy.

There's also Ragnar Benson's burial approach (http://www.fetchbook.info/Modern_Weapons_Caching.html).

I'd have my stash split among several locations (if I had a stash, that is :( ). I heard about one guy who built a stash of Kruggerands into his jeep. Remember the movie Day of the Jackal, where the Jackal mods his car to hold his rifle kit under the chassis? I wouldn't use something like a car, which after all, is a target for theft all by itself.
Title: Got gold?
Post by: rick on April 28, 2004, 04:59:42 am
In the funny country where I am living I have to store gunpowder in a safe, so I bought a good-looking one with a complicated lock and which looks really worth stealing. It is filled with six pounds of gunpwder though. THe more precious things as silver and gold coins are stored in a simple cardboard box, displayed in the open. Don't think a burglar will strech for a cardboard box almost at the ceiling when he can have a safe (75 lbs, not more) which really yells "steal me, steal me now". Hope the burglar uses a torch..
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 28, 2004, 06:02:22 am
I think they are all pretty coins, and I have some of each.  Most of my stash is Eagles and Maple Leafs, but I have Krugerands, Pandas, and a few others.  For someone starting out, I think Eagles are safe, easy, and the tax treatment justifies the small premium.

A safe buys time, nothing more.  A high-quality safe is rated to withstand professional attack for 15 minutes.  A really great safe is rated to withstand attack for 30 minutes.  I don't know about you, but that's just not enough time for me.

A good safe costs thousands of dollars.  Nothing wrong with that, it's just how much they cost.

A cheap safe is worse than nothing for storing truly valuable items.  It will attract attention while not protecting your goods.  Using one as a decoy is a fine idea.  Cheap safes are really nothing more than fireboxes, they do a good job of protecting the contents against fire. There have been court cases where foolish people sued a firebox company after a thief opened the safe with a crowbar and stole his coin collection.  He lost the lawsuit.  

Law requires storing gunpowder in a safe?  Yikes!  Gunpowder is only dangerous when it is in a sealed container.  I was taught to store gunpowder in a flimsy container so that, in a fire, it just fizzles and sparks.  The depths of government stupidity will never cease to amaze me.  

I have a firebox.  I got it free because the owner had forgotten the combination.  I picked the lock.  That should scare you, as I am no one's idea of a safecracker.   Now I keep negatives, diplomas, and other personally valuable papers in it.

My gold is hidden elsewhere, not all in one place.  I keep some where I can look at the pretty coins and show them to friends.  Some is hidden in plain sight, some is in safe deposit box, some where it will never be found. Its really not that hard to hide something where you can find it but even a determined attacker would have a terrible time locating it.  Just avoid the common pitfall of storing something valuable inside something that might get thrown out.  Another hint: a search by the authorities will destroy your home.  They use metal detectors and rip open walls and floors.  Think about it.

As for Tulving, I had several shipments that were fine, then I had the one where uninsured coins were left on a public way.  Once is enough.  Post Office insured delivery really is best for this kind of thing unless a long-established dealer can show you proof of private insurance.  Tulving shipped UPS, uninsured, without telling me, and it was only dumb luck that I got the coins before someone passing by did.   I also have some unpleasant experiences with Tulving's display and honor of prices, but 'nuff said.  How many shipments are you willing to lose?

I recommend Camino because they've been in buisiness for almost 40 years, they are honest, and they made good, immediately, on a stolen shipment that would have put lesser firms out of business.  They also happen to be very nice and will be happy to explain things to you.  They also sell collectible gold coins; I don't do those but some folks like them.  All around, Camino is the best I've found, and I've tried a dozen or more.

Peace,

Silver
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: NortonRyder on April 28, 2004, 07:52:08 am
Don't forget the 'Poor Man's Gold' - Silver. For those of us without the huge resources to acquire thousands of dollars of gold, silver is, to my thinking, a reasonable substitute. WIth a conversion value of about 50 Oz of Silver, to 1 Oz of gold, you've got a bit more to carry. OTOH, in a survival situation, buying a tank of gas using a Gold Eagle would not be desirable. It all depends on your view of what is coming, after the collapse.
I've used Kitco for both their Silver Pool, and actual delivered metal. The Silver Pool is a way of acquiring a silver holding a little bit at a time. Then, when you are ready, you can convert the Pool contents into actual metal, by paying the minting premium. I have a group of Canadian Maples. They are rated .9999, which is about as close to absolutely pure as it is possible to get. Another option is the Silver Liberties, offered by Norfed. There is a bit higher premium, though.
All in all, Metal in the hand is worth much more than FRNs in the bank. Even Copper has intrinsic value. Notice when the FedGov stopped making pennies out of pure copper? About the time people started hoarding pennies, because one penny contained more than one cent's worth of copper.  
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 28, 2004, 12:09:32 pm
Forget it?  It's my screen name! :D

Seriously, I didn't forget it, and I own almost my weight in silver.  But it's different than gold.
Valuable, yes.  But it gets used, really used and not recovered, whereas we can account for
about 98% of gold mined since the dawn of man.  The industrial uses and the fact that keeping
the price of silver low suits the interests of many powerful people distorts its price and its market
in ways that are both interesting and dangerous to the small investor.

Look at the price of silver today (April 28), it's below $6.  Earlier this month, it was above $8.  That
kind of thing gives people heartburn and insomnia.  There's almost certainly manipulation going on,
and those of us who think we understand the long-term fundamental forces take these dips as buying opportunities.  But if you've just laid down $1000 for silver that is now worth $750, it hurts.

Gold is variable and subject to manipulation as well, but the swings aren't so wild.  Gold's price
has dropped about 7 or 8% this month versus 25-30% for silver.  If you've got the guts, by all
means load up on cheap silver and ride the price to the moon.  But I think most folks, on this
forum particularly, are buy-and-hold types, who want the metal as much for insurance and
get-away and gulching purposes more than as an speculative investment.  

Gold, IMHO, is a better match to those needs.  Portable, valuable, stable.  You can hold $100,000 worth in the palm of your hand, if you can hold 17 lbs or so.  The same value of $6/oz silver would weigh over half a ton.

Rich or poor, if you've got $50, you can own gold, or silver.  Owning both is great if you can afford it. I hold both silver dollars and pre-1964 silver quarters in addition to my gold bullion coins.
A silver quarter will always buy a loaf of bread.  When times get tough, and they will, that can become very important.  Even if the person in line behind you has a fistful of FRNs, you'll get the bread.

Peace,

Silver
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on April 28, 2004, 12:09:59 pm
You know.......I have a stash of silver coins, and I do believe in holding some "hard money" and all that good stuff, yet I've got a question.

Quote
A silver quarter will ALWAYS buy a loaf of bread.
How do you know without any shadow of a doubt that gold or silver will "always" be accepted as money other than by pointing to tradition in a semi stabilized society?
During hard times that which is considered as currency is that which is most needed at that time, and this very well could not be either gold or silver.

As I've said before, I have a few coffee cans full of "junk silver" and I feel they have "a" value but I'll not bet my future on that value by placing all my eggs into a silver basket anymore than I'll believe that there is any silver bullet available with which to procure freedom........
Good common sense would dictate that a person preparing for an uncertain future would accumulate a little of this and a little of that and perpare for all crises, and not trust their future to the price of chicken feathers...... or of gold and silver
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 28, 2004, 12:24:28 pm
Quote
How do you know without any shadow of a doubt that gold or silver will "always" be accepted as money other than by pointing to tradition in a semi stabilized society?
During hard times that which is considered as currency is that which is most needed at that time, and this very well could not be either gold or silver.
I don't know beyond a shadow of a doubt.  I only have 12,000 years of human history to guide me.  During that time, people always have wanted gold, have traded gold, and hoarded gold.  Silver too, but not so much as gold.

In hard times, the value and demand for gold tends to go up, way way up, even as civil society disintegrates.  Gold's value goes so high in such times that it all disappears, goes underground, as Gresham's Law works its cruel logic.  Bad money drives out good money, and when the poop has really hit the fan, gold is the best money there is, so it vanishes.  That doesn't mean you can't trade it, just that there won't be a lot circulating.  If you give someone a gold coin, they will hoard it, not spend it, in truly hard times.

I would never suggest putting all your money into gold or silver.  I certainly didn't.  First it was food and a secure water supply, then ammo, then medical supplies.  I've only turned to serious gold purchases in the past year or so.  First things first; you can't eat gold.

I can't see the future.  But I can read history, and everything I learn from that tells me we are heading for a big, big fall.  Probably sooner rather than later, but who knows?  I'll be very, very happy if nothing bad happens and my bullion sits quietly in its hiding place until I die or decide to spend it.  But I'll have a better chance of living if things get bad and I've stocked up.
It's a no-lose proposition; the downside of gold is much, much less than the downside of any stock purchase or fiat currency stash.

Is gold the only thing to hold?  Of course not.  Is it very, very important to have some?  I think so.

Peace,

Silver
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on April 28, 2004, 12:40:26 pm
Silver,

May I ask what determines the price of gold and silver "today" and what if anything would you or could you do to affect the price of that gold and silver?
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 28, 2004, 01:33:25 pm
Quote
May I ask what determines the price of gold and silver "today" and what if anything would you or could you do to affect the price of that gold and silver?

Supply and demand, of course, but there is almost certainly manipulation as well.

What could I do?  Nothing.  I'm way too small to have any effect.  Right now, I buy the dips.

But if I were a large criminal enterprise dating back 2 or 3 centuries, and I had access to
a few hundred tons of silver or gold, or even better central banks would "lend" me a few
hundred tons of gold for 1% per year, I could do a lot of things.  I could sell a bunch of the
gold and invest the proceeds in financial instruments returning 5% or more.  Zero-risk money,
with profits measured in billions.  Now, I have to pay, at least in theory, that "loaned" gold
back someday, so it's important to make sure that the price of gold doesn't go too high, or
all my profits are wiped out.

The easiest way to hold down the price of a commodity is by naked short selling.  That means
you promise to sell someone a bunch of stuff that you don't have.  It's not legal, and it's certainly
not ethical, but it's a great way to drive down prices.  Joe Blow, the little investor, says "I'll pay
$100 today for the right to pay $7 an ounce to buy 5,000 ounces of silver next month."  Criminal
Enterprise says "I will sell anyone who wants it for $50 per 5,000 ounce contract the right to buy
10 million ounces of silver next month for $6 an ounce."
No one takes the bet, as no one wants to buy 10 million ounces, but the price gets driven down to
the neighborhood of $6, even though there are people who are willing to pay $7.

There are lots more subtle and complicated ways to fix commodities markets, that's just a simplistic
example.  It also happens to be close to the present reality of silver markets, where 8 huge short-sellers
in the silver commodities market hold positions equivalent to several years mine output of silver.  They
almost certainly don't have it, but they have enough money, and just enough silver, to make the bluff work.
For now.

Other things that can be done, not by me, but by some, to affect prices of silver and gold:
1) Claim that inflation is low when in reality it is dangerously high.  People move to gold
during times of inflation, moving the price up.
2) Continually denigrate and insult any and all who buy or own gold.  Sneer at "gold bugs."  Call gold a "barbarous relic" and pooh-pooh its utility as money.  
3) Have central banks announce that they plan to sell large, like 500 ton, quantities of gold every year for the next 5 or 6 years.  Dumping big quantities of any commodity on the market lowers the price.  No other commodity owner tips their hand by publicizing what they plan to sell or buy, but central banks routinely do so.They are clearly not acting to get the best value for their assets, so what are they trying to do?
4) Make it illegal to own gold.  Confiscate it, then devalue the currency.

The list is long, but my time is short.  I need to earn some money so I can buy some more gold.

Peace,

Silver
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Dull'Hawk on April 28, 2004, 02:10:32 pm
So, is this what is happening to the price of precious metals now?  What if someone (like me) wanted to buy silver (or gold), but could only scrape up $50 or so?  Am I just out of luck?

Kent
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 28, 2004, 02:38:59 pm
Quote
So, is this what is happening to the price of precious metals now? 
Perhaps.  Perhaps not.  I can't be sure.  No one, except those practicing the manipulation, can be sure.

Quote
What if someone (like me) wanted to buy silver (or gold), but could only scrape up $50 or so?  Am I just out of luck?

Absolutely not.  In fact, you are in luck, as both gold and silver took big drops in price today.  Call Camino, tell them you want to buy a 0.1 troy oz gold Eagle, and you'll spend about $50.  I don't know what they have for small orders of silver.  I imagine that they could sell you some 1 oz Silver Eagles, for $8 each or so, but I really don't know for sure.

The gold and silver manipulations wreck the fortunes of "small" speculators, small being people who can afford to lose $10k or more and not take a lifestyle hit.  Think of it as a money pump, moving money from speculators to bullion banks.  For micro buyers like you and me, the manipulation lets us buy for less than if the free market were at work.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on April 28, 2004, 02:55:40 pm
Quote
The gold and silver manipulations wreck the fortunes of "small" speculators, small being people who can afford to lose $10k or more and not take a lifestyle hit. Think of it as a money pump, moving money from speculators to bullion banks. For micro buyers like you and me, the manipulation lets us buy for less than if the free market were at work.

The important word here is speculator. Don't do it. No one on this board is likely
to be well connected enough to get the important info, or get it soon enough, to be
useful. You will end up being fodder for the bigger concerns.

OTOH, buying small amounts over time for the purpose of preserving the value of your
savings, is a good idea. Both the gold and the silver markets have been manipulated,
but as more people get into buying precious metals, the manipulators have less
effect. Also note that the manipulations are NOT permanent. Market forces eventually
correct the price.

If you have $50 to spend, you might consider getting 1 oz silver ingots "rounds" from
some place like California Numismatic Investments. http://www.golddealer.com (http://www.golddealer.com) These
are not coins but .999 fine silver ingots that happen to be round. :)

If you bought silver rounds with your $50, you could "spend" some of it without having
to use all of it at once. This is something you can't do with a single 1/10 oz eagle.

Bear



 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 28, 2004, 03:26:11 pm
I agree completely.  I am not a speculator and I advise everyone I know not to be.  They don't listen, and speculate in stocks and mutual funds with "equity" taken from their bubble-priced house, but I tell them anyway.

Speculation is for people with so much money that they can afford to lose big chunks.  

As for investing $50, while I like gold, I note that Goldmasters (http://www.goldmasterscoins.com/silver.asp) sells $1 face value US silver coins (dimes and quarters minted before 1965) for $4.47, today, when silver took a big hit.  So you can buy about 7.15 troy ounces of silver for $44.47.  Shipping and handling will bump that up, so if you can afford more, go for it now, and spread that S&H charge across more coins.  But you can definitely spend $50 and get either silver or gold.

Peace,

Silver
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Delos on April 28, 2004, 09:53:21 pm

I just looked at www.kitco.com and guess what?

I think with gold falling to nearly $382 today, it's an excellent opportunity to strengthen your position. IMO, this is a green light to BUY!
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Hasher on April 28, 2004, 10:11:24 pm
I have long squirreled away a little silver here and there and it is starting to become a nice littel stash. As Silver mentioned I buy when the price dips. I am holding it for the long term say like 30 years. Recently i have begun to aquire the 1/10th oz gold Eagles. Not much of a start but it is somthing for the future.
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Nedda of the Hill on April 28, 2004, 10:33:52 pm
What about ordering coins thru a local jeweler's shop?

Has anyone else used the gold or silver pool at Kitco?  It sounds good to me since I only have a little bit of money here and there to play with, but I want to know if I can really trust them.
Title: Got gold?
Post by: NortonRyder on April 29, 2004, 12:03:43 pm
I was in the Silver Pool at Kitco for about a year. When I had acquired a couple of hundred ounces, and some spare cash I converted the pool into metal. I found them to be prompt, courteous, and very plesant to deal with. I did have a number of questions, on the insurance, and shipping, and they answered those via e mail, very promptly.

I don't know about other states, but I've talked with several dealers here in Arkansas and the big problem with buying local is the 8 - 9 % additional premium you pay in SALES TAX. In Arkansas, metal purchases are taxed, so buying over the internet is, in essence, purchasing at a discount.

I really haven't calculated the percentage for Insurance and Handling, but I believe their handing fee is a flat rate, so the more you buy the less you pay, as a percentage. I liked the idea of being able to build a 'stash' a little bit at a time. I'd by 10 or 20 ounces in the pool, when I had a little spare cash. Over the course of a year, it adds up.
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Delos on April 29, 2004, 01:45:36 pm

My gold dealer, a jeweler, doesn't charge me sales taxes on bullion purchases.

He is something of a self-governor!

:D  
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on April 29, 2004, 03:21:17 pm
Quote
What about ordering coins thru a local jeweler's shop?

Nedda, if the local jeweler will give you a good deal, then by all means, work with him and pay cash.
YMMV, but not all jewelers are interested in doing this.

Bear
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: enemyofthestate on April 29, 2004, 03:42:11 pm
Quote
Nedda, if the local jeweler will give you a good deal, then by all means, work with him and pay cash.
YMMV, but not all jewelers are interested in doing this.
Try local coins shops too.  I've bought quite a few gold coins thru a local dealer. He has better margins than most mail order or internet dealers, too.
Title: Got gold?
Post by: unstructuredreality on April 29, 2004, 03:48:13 pm
Just my 2 cents, or oz's?!

I'd say the best advice is to keep it as simple and straight forward as possible, like Bear says, bit by bit over time, consistently is a good idea.  Once it gets complicated you can guarantee your investments will be watered down.  Buy straight, not options and know that the fundamental value will remain through the fluctuations and manipulations.  People tend to get into big trouble working options.  Leave gold pure and simple.  I also have silver in case I need to "have change" for the loaf of bread.  I have a nice deep hidden floor safe to keep a bit of my accumulations that couldn't be seen even if you were actively looking for it, but spread most of it around in other places.   For the past couple of years I've been giving gold for birthday presents to my younger family members, while they won't know what to do with it now, I have a feeling it will be appreciated later on.  Besides it's shiny and kids love shiny.:)

Peace and Good Day
Title: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on April 30, 2004, 10:31:14 am
unstructuredreality,

Quote
Besides it's shiny and kids love shiny
Yeah but so do the crows of state, and those crows already made the personal possession of gold for investment a crime once in order to effectively rob the public to get themselves out of trouble.
And I myself believe they could and would do so again under the vestige of "terrorists are using gold as money" or some other such nonsense......

(edited in for clarity)
This is not to say that one shouldn't buy gold or silver, but only that one should be aware that at some point the crows of state might want "their" gold back, and therefore plans should be made to avoid being forced to do so.
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: rockchucker on April 30, 2004, 11:05:50 am
So far, my "precious" metal stash consists chiefly of various chunks of steel, tiny gilded cylindrical lead ingots, and short brass tubes. ;)  
Title: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on April 30, 2004, 11:32:32 am
rockchucker,

It's interesting to note that during times of civil strife those tiny lead ingots and other siniliar items very well could be considered as valid currency........
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on April 30, 2004, 11:46:32 am
Quote
unstructuredreality,
Quote


Besides it's shiny and kids love shiny

Yeah but so do the crows of state, and those crows already made the personal possession of gold for investment a crime once in order to effectively rob the public to get themselves out of trouble.
And I myself believe they could and would do so again under the vestige of "terrorists are using gold as money" or some other such nonsense......

(edited in for clarity)
This is not to say that one shouldn't buy gold or silver, but only that one should be aware that at some point the crows of state might want "their" gold back, and therefore plans should be made to avoid being forced to do so.


It's not likely that the Gov would dare outlaw gold wedding bands.

Have your friendly jeweler cast your "hoard" of gold coins into wedding bands, or shot glasses, or
some other item or artwork. Just remember to keep the 22kt and the 24kt stuff separate.

Better yet, take a metal casting class from your local community college and learn to do lost wax
casting yourself - in the privacy of your backyard.

The feds may be greedy and vicious, but they tend to be slow and not very ambitious. I think we can stay
a couple of steps ahead.

Bear
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: unstructuredreality on April 30, 2004, 03:16:35 pm
ZooT_aLLures said:
"And I myself believe they could and would do so again under the vestige of "terrorists are using gold as money" or some other such nonsense......"

If my memory serves me correctly in this instance, gold dealers are now financial institutions and are subject to new money laundering regulations as of the passing of parts of Patriot 2 tucked nicely into an Intelligence Spending Bill last year.  I guess when it all comes crashing down, gold will still have value- not like today's market value, but good value nonetheless- in transactions between people in need.  I can't think of anything else that would serve someone better in a pinch.

http://www.nccprivacy.org/handv/030228villain.htm (http://www.nccprivacy.org/handv/030228villain.htm)
Title: Got gold?
Post by: rockchucker on April 30, 2004, 04:46:27 pm
Quote
http://www.nccprivacy.org/handv/030228villain.htm (http://www.nccprivacy.org/handv/030228villain.htm)
Thanks for that link. I've got privacilla, epic, and privacyinternational, but hadn't heard of those guys.

Seems the only way to avoid the snoops is to deal only in private transactions, or mine/pan it yourself. I've done the latter (panning, anyway), and I will say that (in one particular case) never in my life have my fingers been so cold. :o

The ROI on your time isn't too great either, unless you get very lucky.
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Dull'Hawk on April 30, 2004, 05:04:10 pm
Yep, I've done panning before.  VERY cold!  Made my back ache from all the stooping over.  After many hours, I had found one, almost microscopic flake.  Woo hoo.  Next time, I will try to find a better spot....

Kent
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 30, 2004, 06:09:52 pm
While there is no limit to the depravity that our government will descend to, I doubt that gold confiscation would work very well in this day and age.  The population in the 1930s was looking to the government to solve their problems (sound familiar?) and they rather meekly went along with the demand to hand over gold for paper at $20 an ounce.  Only a short time later the evil FDR changed the exchange rate to $35 an ounce, devaluing the currency.  People remember that, and trust the government less.

The method of confiscation is unlikely to work very well again.  FDR posted armed guards at all banks, who went with every person who opened their safe deposit box, and made sure any gold was traded for worthless paper.  Lots of people owned gold then, and many kept their coins in bank safe deposit boxes.  Today, very few own coins, and those few tend not to trust banks very much.

Quite a bit of gold was never turned in; literally billions of dollars went into hiding and/or overseas.  You can still buy 1920s St. Guaudens coins at most coin dealers.

So don't keep most or all of your gold in a safe deposit box, and if you do, keep your eyes and ears open.  As pointed out earlier, these criminals don't move very fast, and they telegraph their intentions if you just pay attention.

If the government tells the citizens to turn in their gold coins, cries of "Molon Labe" will ring across the land, and those "tiny gilded cylindrical lead ingots, and short brass tubes" will ring out their own song as well.

Now's a great time to buy gold and silver; they are in the midst of a major correction, or manipulation, depending on what you know and believe, but the price is as low as one is likely to see for some time.

Peace,

Silver
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Desertrat on April 30, 2004, 07:41:43 pm
I've noticed that it is reasonably common that if you pay cash, rather than by check or credit card, the sales taxes are somehow forgotten...

:), 'Rat
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on May 09, 2004, 08:09:44 am
Gold is now below $380 for the first time in 6 months or so, who knows if or when we'll see it at this price again?
It took a major hammering on Friday, May 7, for reasons that are far from clear.  Seems like even the courtesan
press is finally noticing the rampant inflation, and gold always does very, very well during inflation.

As Mr. Russel of Dow Theory fame states, gold is "cheaper than dirt" right now.  It's come down almost $50 in the past month.

You can buy a 1 oz American Eagle for less than $400, or a 1/10th ounce Eagle for about $43.
Silver is low as well, you can get $100 face value of US pre-1965 silver quarters or dimes (90% silver) for about $430.  That's about 72 ounces of silver.

Call Camino Company at 800-982-7070 and change worthless bits of green paper for something with real, lasting value. No sales tax for anyone except the poor residents of Kalifornia, and they can escape that by buying more than $1000 worth.

Got money stuck in an IRA, and nothing to do with it but buy vastly overvalued stocks and manipulated mutual funds, or hold cash while Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan inflates away its value?

Buy Central Exchange Fund, CEF, they buy bullion, 1 part gold to 50 parts silver, and keep it nice and safe in a Candian bank vault.  Their price is also at a six-month low.

I have no financial reliationship with Camino or CEF.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on May 09, 2004, 10:18:00 am
Quote
rockchucker,
It's interesting to note that during times of civil strife those tiny lead ingots and other siniliar items very well could be considered as valid currency........

Zoot, this could be one of those circumstances where it is better to give than to receive. :o

Bear
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on May 09, 2004, 10:36:17 am
On a related note to gold and silver -

I've mentioned before that the Sacagewea dollar coins in uncirculated condtion seem to be worth a lot more
than face value. Here's some prices for uncirculated Sacs from Littleton.


Year   Mint    Value    %gain
2000     P      $3.95      295%
2000     D      $3.95      295%
2001     P    $10.95      995%
2001     D    $10.95      995%
2002     P      $6.95      595%
2002     D      $6.95      595%
2003     P      $3.50      250%
2003     D      $3.50      250%


Percent gain assume you paid face value for the coin, either getting it in change somewhere or getting it
from the bank.

Also note that these are NOT the proof prices. Proofs are even more expensive.

I was thinking about getting a bag of Sacs from the Mint, but they increased their mark up from 9% to 24.9%!

Bear
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: RN/MEDIC on May 09, 2004, 04:25:25 pm
For those with the resources to convert into gold/silver, that's certainly a good thing. Right or wrong, and as I can't do both, I am purchasing/storing ammo of common useable calibers. My guess (right or wrong) is that when the "BALLOON GOES UP/CRUNCH COMES" ammo will be accepted like FRN's are now only better. Just a thought.
Title: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on May 09, 2004, 04:57:19 pm
RNMEDIC,

There'll be quite a few things that will be accepted, and to determine those one only has to determine that which is needed to support life....
Title: Got gold?
Post by: rockchucker on May 09, 2004, 08:57:56 pm
Just out of curiosity, I looked up the formulation for gilding metal. Found 2: Copper/Zinc 85/15, and 95/5.

Now that makes me wonder about the formulation of old copper pennies. Of course, the new ones are zinc -- albeit hoarding new pennies is an expensive way to acquire zinc. (Or so I'd guess.)

Sierra says their jacketing alloy uses the 95/5 formulation.

Other materials which might wind up as currency: sulfur and saltpeter. Depending on where you live, maybe charcoal too?
Title: Got gold?
Post by: kbarrett on May 10, 2004, 05:35:16 pm
Quote
Yep, I've done panning before.  VERY cold!  Made my back ache from all the stooping over.  After many hours, I had found one, almost microscopic flake.  Woo hoo.  Next time, I will try to find a better spot....

Kent
Join the GPAA (http://www.goldprospectors.org/), and move out west.

We have a lot more gold out here.

And get something more efficient than a single pan. Even an unpowered sluicebox is an improvement over just panning.

 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Dull'Hawk on May 10, 2004, 05:53:42 pm
What, like Kalifornia?

Kent
Title: Got gold?
Post by: kbarrett on May 10, 2004, 06:05:55 pm
Quote
What, like Kalifornia?

Kent
Gack ....CA .... that's evil....


There are a few gold fields in CO, but better pickings in WY, MT, or SD. Or even OR or ID. If you pay for a GPAA membership, you do get to use their claims.



Some good GPAA contacts in CO are:

Colorado
Durango Chapter (Durango CO)
     Wayne Peterson nuggetbrain1@msn.com        (970) 385-7384
     Troy Hott hotsgold@hotmail.com                   (970) 883-2429
     
Western Slope chapter, (Olathe, Co.)
     Marlin Littlefield marlinlt@netzero.net       (970) 921-6211
     Bob Dodge rdodge1130@aol.com                 (970) 323-6381
     meets 3rd thurs. monthly @ 7 pm
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Dull'Hawk on May 10, 2004, 10:20:59 pm
I thought you meant further west than I am.   <_<

Kent

PS: I do know a good area now, but haven't gotten up there yet.  I knew someone who had a mine near there.  He did a lot of gold mining.
Title: Got gold?
Post by: DrillSgtK on May 20, 2004, 03:09:43 pm
I just got back from a field training exercise and was doing catch up on the files and saw this topic.

I’ve been buying gold and sliver for years, but never had the thousands most places seem to want up front. I’ve bought Gold Eagles and Silver (Eagles, Cir Dollars and 90% cir silver) from “The Lone Star Mint” in Plano Texas. [address at the bottom] as they have a minimum of $50 a month buy requirement. You can take possession of any whole amount any time. Since 1992 I’ve been buying, so I have made a good investment over the years as well as “dollar cost averaging” the price. The people are very nice and it’s in my price range.  You can send in more, of course, and I’ve gotten to that level now. But when I started, my income was much lower and $50 a month was what I could afford.

I’ve also found that if you have the time, look up local coin shops in the area, say 50 miles from home. Often they will be happy to sell you “junk silver” to get it off their hands. Don’t go for the Near Mint Peace Dollars, unless you’re a collector. Just get the circulated ones. Just last month I got an 1888 Dollar for 4% over it’s melt value. Could not avoid the sales tax in this state.

If you get to know the owner of these shops they can get you any mint coin you want for a moderate bit over spot. Though often they want full payment at one time. I’ve been able to get some of the smaller Gold Eagles from them (1/2 oz, 1/4 oz and my favorite 1/10 oz.) as they tend to be more in my cash range.

The nice thing about getting small quanties over time and from several places is that if “they” ever ban gold or try to get ya, “they” won’t know how much you have with out taking a lot of effort to find out. (They would have to talk to over 15 shops in 6 states about my buys over the last 14 years, to get a close number of what I may have)

I think it would show up more if you made a $1,200 buy each year vs. $50 buy twice a month for a year.

Just my thoughts

Drill Sgt K

Lone Star Mint
805 E. 15th Street
Plano, TX 75074-5805
972-424-1405
www.lsmint.com

It is called the “Prospector Club” but they don’t have any information on the web page, sorry.
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: unstructuredreality on May 20, 2004, 03:30:08 pm
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20031204...11437-5659r.htm (http://www.washtimes.com/national/20031204-111437-5659r.htm)
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/w.../2003/1209.html (http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/wallenwein/2003/1209.html)

Anybody have real world experience in this area yet?  This was a bill that was signed by the president that made gold dealers, pawn shops, casinos subject to reporting requirements like banks, coming under the definition of "financial institutions".  I haven't bought anything since, so it would be good to know if implementation is in effect.  This was the sly passing of parts of Patriot Act 2.
Thanks and,
Good Day
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on May 20, 2004, 04:27:48 pm
Good for you DrillSgtK!  I started my buying in the 1980s but let it slip some in the 90s when I got real busy starting my business.  Now I kick myself for having lost a great opportunity to dollar cost average, but no one is to blame but me.  Now is a great time to be buying, adjusted for inflation gold is a screaming bargain anytime it is below $400.  And I whole-heartedly agree that the best way to buy is as a savings plan, whatever you can do every month.  "Pay yourself first."

As for Unstructured's question, I'm not sure one can tell what effects this new brick in the foundation of the police state will have.

I felt a chill when Bin Laden was reported to have offered 10,000 grams of gold to the person who killed the head of the US occupation in Iraq.  I could just see the thugs and the courtesan press grunting out a big steaming pile of filth about how only terrorists use gold.  It may happen yet.

But as far as I can tell, these days once the thugs have their eyes on you, you don't get told, until they break down your door at 3 AM and kill you, or gitmo you, or whatever.  Even if they let you have a "trial," first they confiscate all your financial assets so that you can't defend yourself.  

Peace,

Silver
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: securitysix on May 20, 2004, 04:43:41 pm
OK, after having read the whole thread, I think I'm caught up.  I did want to comment on something posted by Silver...:

Quote
FDR posted armed guards at all banks, who went with every person who opened their safe deposit box, and made sure any gold was traded for worthless paper.  Lots of people owned gold then, and many kept their coins in bank safe deposit boxes.

Now, maybe I'm nuts (OK, I am, but ignore that for a second, kay?), but I'm thinking that keeping a little bit of precious metal in a safe deposit box might actually be an act of genious.  If they try to do this again, you cough up what might be a couple or three hundred dollars worth of gold or silver and go "Nope, boss, that's all I've got."  Well, they done looked in your safe deposit box, didn't see any there.  If you're creative about stashing the rest, you'll still have more than enough, but the JBTs (Jack Booted Thugs) will think they've gotten it all.

Of course, that brings about the possibility that it will not be LEGAL to have it, thus impossible to spend it, again in your lifetime, but your progeny might be able to do so.  Hrm...that brings about a delimma.  How to pass along not only that there IS a treasure, but where to find it, without tipping off the JBTs and having them find it first...?  Of course, a creative individual might borrow a chapter from Dan Brown's books, but then, there's guys like me who barely have the creativity to tie their shoes in the morning.
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on May 20, 2004, 04:57:26 pm
Well, maybe you're nuts, and I've lost my mind (don't worry, it's so sick it won't get very far) but we do think alike.

There are already a nice sacrificial bunch of coins in one of my safe deposit boxes, for that very reason.  Call me paranoid if you like, but in fact they are out to get us, and they always do the same thing over and over again, while expecting different results.

Being illegal to posses and being unable to spend it are two entirely different propositions, and I hope to spend every gram someday.  Laws to the contrary are null and void, and merely increase the care that must be taken when arranging transactions.  'Nuff said.

Peace,

Silver
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on May 20, 2004, 05:15:48 pm
Hmmm... a couple of ideas from novels:

1. There is a rumor of a buried treasure. The bad guys dig and find a buried treasure.
Maybe it isn't as big as they thought, but people do exagerate. The real treasure is
in a much larger box buried a couple of feet under the decoy. Who would keep
digging after they've found what they're looking for?

2. This takes place in France. In a will, after the usual verbage, there is a list of
uncommon words. The recipient of the will goes to the house of the deceased. In the
study is a Larouse encyclopedia. He decides to look up the words in the list from the
will. It turns out that there is a 1,000 Franc note taped to page next to each entry.
The deceased figured that if thieves broke into his house, the chances of them stealing
an encyclopedia is very small. Everybody wins except the tax man.

Bear
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: TFA303 on May 21, 2004, 03:51:25 am
I've liked gold ever since my mom got a necklace with a Kruggerand on in when I was a kid. I buy a little at a time, but steadily. It adds up.


Tom
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Roy J. Tellason on June 10, 2004, 09:15:05 pm
I just want to add a comment on the subject of safe deposit boxes,  since they've been mentioned a couple of times in this thread...

In a book I read some time ago (I *think* it was a Harry Browne book) it was mentioned that safe deposit boxes may not be a real terrific idea,  particularly if in a "time of crisis" they decide to declare a "bank holiday" for some reason.

The book also mentioned "safe deposit companies" that were basically the same sort of a setup but without the bank attached.  I've never seen such a thing,  any of you folks know of any?
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Desertrat on June 11, 2004, 10:11:44 am
I've not checked into it, tellason, but I know there's one in Tallahassee.  Might do a search under "private vault(s)" or some such...

However, if the feds go after bank boxes they'll go after the non-bank ones as well.  The only advantage is that the private vaults won't close for a "bank holiday".

'Rat
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Augustwest on June 14, 2004, 02:52:39 pm
A little late getting to this thread, but a couple/few thoughts (all opinions of mine, and I'm not particularly educated in these matters) -

-As far as "know your customer" rules for financial institutions, I believe they're only applicable to new customers, so if there are dealers you were doing business with prior to the rules taking effect, you should be left alone.

-I just made a fairly modest purchase of some silver coins last week from a dealer I hadn't dealt with before, and didn't have to provide proof of identity.

-Seems to me that the concern about being 1099'ed for selling a dealer more than 20 (or is it 25?) non-eagle coins would vanish if one were to spread one's sales out over multiple buyers. Not a huge issue for me, because if I get to the point where I need to convert my meager precious metals holdings into FRNs, capital gains taxes will be the least of my worries.

-As far as small fractional gold purchases go, buying Sovereigns or Francs from CNI, which Bear turned us onto awhile ago (thanks Bear!), is a much better deal, I think, than buying 1/10 eagles. Yes, you're paying more for them, but you're getting more gold, at a lower premium, and they're still under 100 bucks (before shipping).
Title: Got gold?
Post by: EconGeek on July 20, 2004, 05:31:52 pm

I'd like to suggest everyone here read Rothbards "What has the government done with our money?".   Its a short book, 50-70 pages and is downloadable free from the mises institute (www.mises.org).

It will explain what money is-- something that many gold bugs often don't quite get, and give a bit of the economics behind why gold is money.

For instance, on the face of it, it sounds like a good idea to stockpile ammunition instead of metal for some future catastrophe.   Certainly having enough for your own use is a no-brainer.

But will gold or bullets be a better form of money when the FRN is no longer taken?

The answer is gold or silver.  While you can't eat or shoot gold and silver, they are money-- because they have all the characteristics of money.  Money is a medium of exchange with specific characteristics.  Ammunition is not- its not divisable, and its value is not easily quantifiable... and there are a couple other characteristics that I think it may not suit well.

I'm not saying you shouldn't have extra ammo-- but if your'e stockpiling ammo because you expect TEOTWAWKI or whatever, you should have gold or silver as well.

Anyway, its a great book-- well worth the time, and its free!
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Mostly Harmless on July 21, 2004, 08:43:48 am
Quote
rockchucker,

It's interesting to note that during times of civil strife those tiny lead ingots and other siniliar items very well could be considered as valid currency........
Yeah. One could become quite the alchemist -- turning lead into gold. :ph34r:  
Title: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on July 21, 2004, 01:05:41 pm
Econgeek,

Quote
I'm not saying you shouldn't have extra ammo-- but if your'e stockpiling ammo because you expect TEOTWAWKI or whatever, you should have gold or silver as well.

Yes.....a well balanced portfolio always has and will continue to be a good idea, and I've never said that it wasn't *grin*
Title: Got gold?
Post by: RagnarDanneskjold on July 21, 2004, 04:25:32 pm
EconGeek @ Jul 20 2004, 05:31 PM
Quote
I'd like to suggest everyone here read Rothbards "What has the government done with our money?".

Some more very good reading about "our" money:
What Is A "Dollar"? (http://www.fame.org/HTM/Vieira_Edwin_What_is_a_Dollar_EV-002.HTM) An Historical Analysis Of The Fundamental Question In Monetary Policy by Edwin Vieira, Jr.
Quote
from the Foreword
Today, all thinking, informed Americans know their country is in trouble. Many haven't a clue as to what went wrong with their government, while others can recite a litany of reasons for their country's distress. Of course, no one reason is paramount; but surely a debased, corrupt, and inflationary monetary system must be placed near the top of the list of causes of America's woes.

What To Do About It?

This Monograph presents, in irrefutable fashion, the legal and economic history of the "dollar,” and of the "dollar's" role in America's monetary system, as originally devised by the Founding Fathers. It also analyzes the Coinage Act of 1792, signed into law by President Washington, which put into effect the monetary system the Founders had previously outlined in the Constitution.

This system helped make the United States "dollar" the safest, most sought-after currency in the world, leading to the well-known saying "sound as a dollar.” However, in 1913, Congress - in an unconstitutional act - relinquished its constitutional power and duty to "coin Money and regulate the Value thereof" to a private banking cartel, the Federal Reserve System.


and: Why Does The United States Need Constitutional Money? (http://www.fame.org/HTM/Vieira_Edwin_Why_Does_the_US_Need_Constitutional_Money_EV-001.HTM) Six Questions On Monetary Reform By Edwin Vieira, Jr.
Quote
This Monograph asks and answers six of the most important questions concerning America's monetary system.
1. What is the economic role of money?
2. Why is the relationship between money and government important?
3. Why is the Constitution important to money and banking?
4. What powers over money and banking does the Constitution delegate to the government?
5. Why should constitutional monetary and banking reform be an important issue today?
6. Why should Americans demand restoration of the constitutional systems of money and banking?



Actually, there is a lot of good info at the FAME.ORG (http://www.fame.org/ReadingList.asp) reading list.
 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on July 15, 2005, 09:51:44 am
Gold down to $420..418

Silver to $6.97..6.92
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on July 16, 2005, 07:02:11 am
Gold and silver down, but those who bought in early May 2004, as discussed on page 3 of this thread, are still ahead 10-11%.

This pattern will almost certainly repeat.  Time to buy.

 
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on July 18, 2005, 01:17:33 am
I started buying small amounts of gold when it was $330 an ounce. I'm not particularly woried daily fluctations.  ;)

Bear
 
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: purple kitty on September 03, 2005, 09:20:52 am
Nonya.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Claire on September 03, 2005, 11:44:14 am
Question for you guys...

I'd like to buy some gold and/or silver bullion, but I don't want to buy online. What kind of stores sell it locally? Would I find it in small (not chain) jewelry stores? Antique/collector stores??

Coin stores, usually (and not just for gold & silver coins, but for bars and rounds as well). Some pawn shops also deal in metal.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Shevek on September 04, 2005, 07:13:11 pm
What is the typical spot price for buying and selling bullion and non-numismatic gold coins?

What is the typical spot price for buying and selling numismatic gold coins?

Do coin dealers bat an eye when buying and selling in FRNs? For example, 10 gold coins at $400/coin would be $4,000 (FRNs), minus the spot price. Do such exchanges create paper trails?

I've gone through this thread and did not find any answers and I don't know how this thread has changed because of recent legislation.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Swein Asleifson on September 05, 2005, 12:24:30 pm
The spot price varies whenever the commodities markets are open.  I usually get my prices from Kitco or from here  http://www.golddealer.com/  That link also includes a good tutorial about buying bullion as well as numismatic coins.  Their prices on bullion are always competitve, often beating the local coin shops slightly.  They also discuss in one of the tutorials what the FRN and other limits are before any reporting to Uncle Sam is required.

The local shops hereabouts PREFER FRNs to any other form of payment.  In fact,  some will only accept FRNs.  All their prices vary by a dollar or two per ounce (gold) and a few pennies per ounce (silver).  I simply chose to do business with the store with the friendliest staff.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Alton Speers on September 05, 2005, 03:41:26 pm
What is the typical spot price for buying and selling bullion and non-numismatic gold coins?
Depends on the dealer and sometimes on the quantity. My dealers listed premium is $0.50/oz. for silver bullion @50 oz+ the premium is $10.00 = $0.25/oz. over the first 50 oz. and 100+ oz is negotiable. The premium per oz of gold bullion is $5  and the premium at 10 oz+ is negotiable.

Quote
What is the typical spot price for buying and selling numismatic gold coins?
check www.kitco.com daily for the current spot prices on silver, gold, platinum, palladium and rhodium. The dealer usually has these quotes online or are obtained with a phone call at the time of sale. The kitco chart looks like this:
(http://www.kitco.com/images/live/t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif)
In fact, if we could persuade the admins, this chart could be posted here at TCF daily. It's a javascript critter, completely self-updating and functions as a link to kitco. An admin could go to this link and get the permission and code to post a chart in the TCF header or wherever the admin thought most appropriate:
http://www.kitconet.com/indexes.html


Quote
Do coin dealers bat an eye when buying and selling in FRNs? For example, 10 gold coins at $400/coin would be $4,000 (FRNs), minus the spot price. Do such exchanges create paper trails?
Dealers do not bat an eye at such sales. However, the government does get antsy and upset when there are "large" transfers of FRNs. Reporting kicks in at $5000+ dollars. Beware! State laws DO vary. Check with your dealer first.


Alton
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on September 05, 2005, 06:59:37 pm
Quote
In fact, if we could persuade the admins, this chart could be posted here at TCF daily.

That's called "advertising".....and folks "pay" other folks to do that......some pretty serious money sometimes.......

Wonder how much Kitco would "pay" for this?

Wonder if www.barnyard-porn.com would pay more than that?

You really wanna' start opening such doors?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Shevek on September 05, 2005, 11:03:08 pm
Quote
check www.kitco.com daily
Quote
I usually get my prices from Kitco or from here  http://www.golddealer.com/

Looks like I'll have to do some online reading some day---. Thanks.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Alton Speers on September 06, 2005, 06:09:06 am
Quote
In fact, if we could persuade the admins, this chart could be posted here at TCF daily.

That's called "advertising".....and folks "pay" other folks to do that......some pretty serious money sometimes.......

Wonder how much Kitco would "pay" for this?

Wonder if www.barnyard-porn.com would pay more than that?

You really wanna' start opening such doors?

What advertising? It's simply a handy reference for the spot price of gold AND a link to the site for those who have interest in the current price of commodities, gold lease rates, the current avg's onin equities markets, market commentaries, oh yes, they also offer to buy or sell gold or silver. Not one damned thing is being sold or even offered for sale by the posting of the chart. No such activity is promoted until you actually go to the kitco site Yes, it does have the Kitco name on it and it does function as a link. Does that mean you're being urged to buy something? All the chart does is give the current price of gold and it functions as a link to further information. You don't have to click on it. And if the chart is so damned offensive to you you could just avert your eyes. There are others here who are interested in information about gold and I thought they might appreciate the handy info.

Alton
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on September 06, 2005, 10:27:24 am
*LMAO*....ahh a play on words substituting "convenience" for "advertising"....

This place, if you hadn't noticed this place  is  unique in that it "doesn't" wear a uniform, and the only agenda that it promotes is one of freedom.
Start sticking "conveniences/advertising" all over the place and it will then wear a uniform, and not only just any uniform, but one promoting products offered by some firm while ignoring similiar products offered by others, and thus one will have willingly joined into assocations with those firms and thus promote "their" agenda.

Quite frankly all the "gold bugs" here probably already check the spot at kitco and other places on a daily basis.......now shall we force other folks into checking the spot of some product or commodity that they very well could have "no" interest in for the priviledge of reading "content" here?

Chances are.....particularly for our dial-up readers.....this place could be painfully slow to load already....now do we want to add a bit more time to that under the handy label of "convenience"?

Convenient for who?........you?.....what about other folks?......is it a convenience, or merely an annoyance?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on September 27, 2007, 03:21:42 pm
Still noting...

Gold

Jan '07 $620
Sep '07 $740

at kitco charts (http://kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Jonas Parker on September 30, 2007, 01:34:12 pm
Download the desktop program from Kitco here and you can have up-to-date precious metal quotes in your status tray with no advertising...

http://kcast.kitco.com/
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on September 30, 2007, 04:39:58 pm
Keen! Thanks, Jonah.

More from the site:


NB: "We ask only that you spend a minute or so each day to provide us your feedback."

But still a nice option.
- - - - - -


& gold is now at ~$744
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: yorick on October 02, 2007, 07:52:47 pm
didn't read the whole thread so I don't know if it's been said yet...

You can't eat gold (or silver)  Make sure you have the essential other stuff before you sink your FRN's into gold.  If USA crashes and food/water/shelter becomes scarce all that shiny stuff ain't worth shit....
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Shrike on October 02, 2007, 11:18:42 pm
didn't read the whole thread so I don't know if it's been said yet...

You can't eat gold (or silver)  Make sure you have the essential other stuff before you sink your FRN's into gold.  If USA crashes and food/water/shelter becomes scarce all that shiny stuff ain't worth shit....
Hi Yorik,
With all due respect, sir, that shiny stuff will likely be worth all sorts of $#|t, especially silver, since both silver and gold are (and have been for thousands of years)
considered real money. Should things really deteriorate badly and the barter system returns, gold and silver will likely be readily accepted. If I have something
someone needs and they want to trade gold or silver for it, I'll accept it without question, if they don't have an acceptable barter item. "Good as gold" as they say.

While I agree with you that we should first secure essential necessities, I strongly recommend that anyone with investments based in USDs should partially diversify
at least a quarter of their investment portfolio/savings into gold and silver. Every day you hang on to those FRNs, you lose money. Every day you hang on to
gold and silver, at least since 2001 and likely for a long time to come, you earn money. Significantly! Gold and especially silver are expected to skyrocket over
the course of the coming years. It has already begun, in fact, with gold nearly tripling in value in only six years.

Do not wait to get into some gold and silver. This is - and I'm not kidding when I say it - the chance of a lifetime. Markets don't see PM bull runs like the one
we're seeing develop, more than once in several decades. Stock up on your food, water, ammo, etc. and buy gold and silver as often as you possibly can.
Yorik, please do not underestimate these two real forms of money. They're much more than barbarous relics, my friend.

Cheers,

Shrike
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on October 03, 2007, 03:09:21 pm
Aye. And we do have threads dedicated to stocking up on
all the needful. This one is for gold...for along with all the others.

And gold is helpful to avoid the %-age lost each year to govt
inflation of the dollar. It costs only ~3% to go in and out of
gold holdings or about 3 months worth of inflation in order
to break even on value.

So please, stock up on the needful, then inbetween or after,
stock up as well on gold or silver. My holdings expand to include
*all* I think is needful, including... Twinkies :-)

and Texas-style fruitcake!!
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Jonas Parker on October 06, 2007, 02:10:03 pm
Actually, gold may end up as a problem. Hypothetically, the US economy melts down, and the Federal Reserve Note ends up as worthless paper due to hyper-inflation. The price of gold hits $1,000/oz. (which is probably a gross underestimate considering that gold is at $741.30/oz right now). Then 1/10 oz gold coins are worth $100.00, which is a bit hard to use for a gallon of milk and a loaf of bread.

Pre-1965 silver coins are readily recognized as "money" by the population, and the weight in silver of each coin is well known. Today, a pre '65 dime contains $.9679 of silver, a pre-65 quarter contains $2.4197 of silver, and a pre'65 half dollar contains $4.8395 of silver (silver is, as of this writing $13.38/ oz.).

Even if the price of silver doubles (or triples), the 90% US silver coins will not be valued so highly that they will be difficult to use in common trade.

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on October 08, 2007, 10:59:23 am
Quote
Then 1/10 oz gold coins are worth $100.00, which is a bit hard to use for a gallon of milk and a loaf of bread.

Go to your local coin dealer and make change - to silver.  Or make changes with someone
else who was also forward thinking and bought precious metals, but happens to have more
silver than you.

This brings up a tacit assumption I see in most places - that whatever strategy you choose
for buying precious metals must be the best strategy for all circumstances. Why does this
need to be true? To begin with, I've bought a little gold and silver bullion. This is long term
savings for me. OTOH, if TSHTF looks more imminent, that changing my buying habits to
"junk" silver would make sense.

Was my earlier purchase wrong? Not necessarily. If TS does not HTF, the bullion coins are
easier to resell and convert back to cash. I think the thing we need to stay clear on is to
choose the right approach for the moment, and be willing to change our plans as circumstances
change. If TS does HTF, then all I my earlier purchases have done is to add a little incovenience.
I've traded convenience now for possible inconvenience later.

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DrillSgtK on October 15, 2007, 09:55:04 am
One benefit of holding silver (pre-64) is that you can pull it out slowly and not draw a lot of attention to yourself.

Think about that, for some reason TSHF, paper is worth less because it has green ink on it. You show up with a 1/10 oz gold eagle to buy those garden supply's you have put off getting for a while. Everyone will know. Gold is so seldom seen you would be marked as "the guy with the gold".  But if you show up to get some more seeds for the garden shop and pull out two 1959 quarters and three 1963 dimes you can pass that off as "I traded them for my DVD player" or my dad had these set aside when I was born, or something reasonable.

No point in becoming a mark for greedy unprepared mobs. Use gold carefully.

Well just my thinking. I don't like to stand out. (more than I do normally being so big)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Optimus on October 15, 2007, 02:38:14 pm
I am buying gold and silver bullion- coins and silver 10oz bars. I am also putting "speculative" money into gold and silver options as I would like to leverage up 5 or 10 or more to one besides just holding value. There are several homesteads up for sale and I add more to my watch list as the others get sold. I am hoping to buy outright one of these places and I'm sure they would not mind the bullion ( at least the bank would, if one was involved).

I have a Dec 07 700-750 gold call spread that I keep holding off on selling, and each week it gets juicier (of course I get nervous everytime it dips, but then my pda gives me a happy little Pavlovian beep when gold breaks 750). Will probably sell soon and turn it into a couple outright silver calls, as I think silver will increase at a greater rate. I also have 2 silver Dec 08 spreads, so have a lot of time on em.

Everthing is timing. One day it will all be dust, so I may as well enjoy the ride. 
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on October 15, 2007, 05:35:16 pm
One day it will all be dust, so I may as well enjoy the ride. 

Exactly. :-) Enjoy!
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Gypsy on October 16, 2007, 07:23:32 pm
I'm starting to buy gold this week (I know, I should have been buying all along). I need advice on where, how to and what size ( 1oz., 1/10oz.) got a little silver, maybe i should stay with that?

Thx
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on October 16, 2007, 09:21:38 pm
Until you have a lot of "junk silver", aka: "90% silver", aka pre-'65 US silver coins I wouldn't consider gold.

Silver is going to appreciate more than gold. Silver is easier to exchange, particularly old dimes and quarters.  Check out Northwest Territorial Mint.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Mr. Bill on October 16, 2007, 10:27:12 pm
I'm starting to buy gold this week (I know, I should have been buying all along). I need advice on where, how to and what size ( 1oz., 1/10oz.) got a little silver, maybe i should stay with that?

Here are some links to discussions on this forum (thanks to Junker for locating most of these):


Gold
Tell me about gold (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=1449.0) <5 pp>
Understanding gold (well..precious metals) (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=11619.0) <3 pp>
First-timer (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=9245.0) on Gold buying <2 pp>
Gold - Interesting Article (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=15123.0)
Where to buy gold and silver (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=8110.0) <2 pp>
Most liquid forms of gold, silver (or other money) for everyday use? (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=8101.0)


Silver
Is anyone here buying silver? (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=9390.0) <2 pp>

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Gypsy on October 17, 2007, 07:02:45 pm
The silver I have is in 1oz. and 10oz bars. Shgould I swap that for coins ?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on October 18, 2007, 01:37:49 am
Quote
. Shgould I swap that for coins ?

If you mind your P's and Q's and find a motivated buyer, you very well could turn a profit trading investment grade bar for "junk silver coins".....as well as trading those easy to identify as investor goods for not so easy to identify coins out of grandpa's coin books
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Gypsy on October 18, 2007, 07:01:24 am
Thanks Zoot, I think I'll start looking for coins. Ebay maybe. I'll let you know how well it works out.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on October 18, 2007, 08:47:32 am
Thanks Zoot, I think I'll start looking for coins. Ebay maybe. I'll let you know how well it works out.

Gypsy, if you have more time then cash, you can search through rolled coins for silver coins, and then turn the rerolled coins back in and get your money back.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Mr. Bill on October 18, 2007, 11:56:14 am
The silver I have is in 1oz. and 10oz bars. Shgould I swap that for coins ?

I don't see a big advantage in getting rid of what you have.  Especially if you've got to do it by mail, because the shipping costs will eat a lot, on top of the buy-sell spreads.

From an investment standpoint, the only reason to swap would be if you think the price of coins is unusually low at the moment, or the price of 1oz and 10oz bars is unusually high.  You'd probably need a little research on historical prices to figure that out.

From a "prepare for the collapse" standpoint, probably you want some smaller silver coins around.  Maybe you'd want all your future silver investments to be in small coins.  But that still doesn't make a good reason to get rid of your larger bars.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Jebur27 on October 18, 2007, 04:43:20 pm
Thanks Zoot, I think I'll start looking for coins. Ebay maybe. I'll let you know how well it works out.
Probably easier & quicker to go to a local coin shop (although, they may take offense at calling it "junk" silver  "We don't sell 'junk'."). 

Just ask for pre-1965 silver coins.  It will probably be based on the spot price of silver & no shipping. 
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on October 18, 2007, 11:50:57 pm
Quote
Thanks Zoot, I think I'll start looking for coins. Ebay maybe. I'll let you know how well it works out.

I didn't go that route.....instead I just let the word out that I buy silver coins and keep a pocket full of small bills handy.....

Hell.....it might even pay just to keep your bars stashed and start buying junk silver whenever and whereever it presents itself.....

"Junk silver"(meaning silver american coins) are so common that they won't even raise an eyebrow let alone set off the bells and whistles that bars and gold bullion will.....as almost everyone has a jar or can of "old coins" stashed away somewhere.....
And the best part is that each and every purchase could be claimed to be "the bottom of the barrel".....and that you really don't want to spend them.......but don't have much choice......

Think of it as trading todays chump change for tomorrows chump change  :laugh:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Phssthpok on October 20, 2007, 12:26:39 pm
I just picked up a $500 face bag of 'junk' and 3 Kruggerands on Friday.

I love being within driving distance of Goldmasters! :mellow:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on October 20, 2007, 12:31:37 pm
Yay! Good haul.  :mellow:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Gypsy on October 20, 2007, 01:59:22 pm
And 3 Kruggerands! Very nice. I'm gonig to start with "Junk" and work my way up. (unless I find deals like this).
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on October 20, 2007, 04:32:06 pm
Yes!

Good luck, Gypsy.

And...

keep yer powder dry!  :ph34r:

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Phssthpok on October 20, 2007, 08:18:23 pm
And 3 Kruggerands! Very nice. I'm gonig to start with "Junk" and work my way up. (unless I find deals like this).

It wasn't so much a 'deal' as I could have bought MUCH more. I just decided to diversify into some gold this time to complement the (now) 1K face in junk.

The $500 face bag was just over 5K FRN's, and the Kruggerands were 802 FRN's each.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DrillSgtK on October 23, 2007, 08:20:45 am
I've been very happy with the service I get from Lone Star Mint in Texas. They have an 'invester' program that for a minimum of $50 a month they set aside that amount of gold or silver for you.  I found it was easyer to come up with $50 a month than $500. You also get the benifit of "dollar cost averaging" in that your buying the gold/silver over time so market spikes and drops don't hurt as much. At any time you can ask (and pay for shipping) for any whole amounts to be sent to you.

In 12 years of this i've never had any problems. Very nice people.

I also set aside $40 a month for the local coin shops. I raid their beginners boxes and well circulated coins for nicer looking ones. Some times I splurge and get a neat looking three cent or the like.

It's not much but over time it adds up. then you start working on where to put it all.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Gypsy on October 23, 2007, 01:41:48 pm
Hey, this is working pretty good. Started looking for junk (old coins anyone had). Found a few people who work in grocery and convenient store that are pulling all the old coins they get in the registers. Two are in low income areas so they say they get alot them. So far 28 quarters and 3 half's at face value. Can't wait to see what they got by Sat.

Thanx for the ideas everyone!!!! :laugh:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on October 23, 2007, 01:45:00 pm
Hey, this is working pretty good. Started looking for junk (old coins anyone had). Found a few people who work in grocery and convenient store that are pulling all the old coins they get in the registers. Two are in low income areas so they say they get alot them. So far 28 quarters and 3 half's at face value. Can't wait to see what they got by Sat.

Thanx for the ideas everyone!!!! :laugh:

Nice Gypsy, qtrs are worth 2.00 or so..good catch.... :mellow:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on October 25, 2007, 10:16:17 pm


Don't look now but Silver is almost back up to it's previous high of over 14 dollars an oz.

Gold is creeping toward the 800 dollar mark as well.

Hmm,  :mellow:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on October 25, 2007, 10:37:58 pm
(Yup:-) I easy-check Burt Blumert's page (http://www.lewrockwell.com/blumert/burt-gold.html) since
I usually float through LRC on any given day. Currently it shows

G: 773.90
S: 13.98

but also since I'm saving rather than speculating, the short term changes don't
much mean anything to my plans.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on October 25, 2007, 11:44:06 pm
Quote
but also since I'm saving rather than speculating, the short term changes don't
much mean anything to my plans.

That's the way I feel about it too........
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Shrike on October 27, 2007, 06:00:18 pm
Gold closed Friday, Oct. 26 at 783.50, with silver breaking that pesky 14 Dollar barrier, to close at 14.17.
Bear in mind that both metals will probably correct sharply soon, so a great opportunity to buy is most
likely coming up soon. Both metals will, in the next 1-5 years, become VERY expensive. Gold would have
to break about $2300/0z to equal its 1980 high in today's inflation adjusted Dollars. Silver would have to
be about $150 and I believe both metals will surpass these numbers in the not too distant future.

Its best to own gold and silver coins, but rounds and bullion are fine for cashing in for FRNs. "Junk" silver
coins (pre 1965 dimes, for example) which are 90% silver, will be a most excellent "barter" tool (its true
money, after all).

www.kitco.com displays live current market prices, as well as a ton of general economic information and
commentary.

www.apmex.com (American Precious Metals Exchange) has about the best pricing I've found so far on
gold and silver.

At least 25% of your portfolio should be moved into PMs. I got out of bonds and tech stocks and I'm
getting into (highly volatile, but potentially the most rewarding) mining stocks. I have about $1000 worth
of "junk" silver for barter. I'm buying more gold and silver as often as I can afford it. You should do the
same.

Shrike
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on October 27, 2007, 08:34:17 pm


14.17?

Wow, I "think" the previous high was 14.64.

How much of a correction in silver though?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Gypsy on October 27, 2007, 08:46:58 pm
just got a few franklin halfs 1949 - 1953.. anybody know what the silvers worth?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Shrike on October 27, 2007, 08:50:57 pm
No telling, Padre. Silver has been demonstrating a bit of a disconnection from Gold recently.
However, I don't think we'll ever see it dip below 12.00 again. Doesn't matter anyway, since
Silver is headed to the Moon. We'll very likely see it hit $50.00/oz with the very real possibility
of it going to $150.00/oz. within ten years. Gold will go to $2200 minimum, with a possible
high of $3500/oz. We'll see.

Buy them both, while they're relatively cheap.

Shrike
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Shrike on October 27, 2007, 08:52:01 pm
just got a few franklin halfs 1949 - 1953.. anybody know what the silvers worth?

Gypsy,
Check www.apmex.com and see if they carry them. I think they do.

Shrike
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on October 27, 2007, 09:22:58 pm


50.00?

"Maybe" Silver hit 14+ the slid back to around 10.00, I say that with a view to maximize value of investment, it took silver quite some time to climb back over 14.+, so it if the trend is long term upwards, and I'm beginning to think that it might be, but I alos think that it will "correct" downward, I'm just trying to get a fell for how much downward.

I sold at 14+ the last time, got a good price on some booked sets of collectible silver, then bought some more on the dip, and ended up 4.00 and ounce ahead of the game = the collectible silver became a "throw in" now.

Talk about headaches though, I have 11/2 of odd ball weighted silver coins, do you think that I shoudl sell the mixed wieght foreign coins for silver rounds? The metal buyer in town is also a coin dealer and I have an inventory of what coin weighs what..
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Optimus on October 27, 2007, 10:09:05 pm
Just sold my gold dec 07 spread Friday for %150 gain. I like putting some money into speculation besides the hard asset in hand. This being the era of probably one of the greatest mutliple bubble burstings of all time, there is probably no greater leverage opportunity than now. Rolled 30% into cotton, will probably look at Yen and maybe more Silver options. I have a silver dec 08 18-19 spread.

I saw 6 Peruvian silver ounce coins at an antique store last week for $15. Think I'll putt up there for my Sunday bike ride and grab em.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Shrike on October 28, 2007, 05:46:17 pm


50.00?

"Maybe" Silver hit 14+ the slid back to around 10.00, I say that with a view to maximize value of investment, it took silver quite some time to climb back over 14.+, so it if the trend is long term upwards, and I'm beginning to think that it might be, but I alos think that it will "correct" downward, I'm just trying to get a fell for how much downward.

I sold at 14+ the last time, got a good price on some booked sets of collectible silver, then bought some more on the dip, and ended up 4.00 and ounce ahead of the game = the collectible silver became a "throw in" now.

Talk about headaches though, I have 11/2 of odd ball weighted silver coins, do you think that I shoudl sell the mixed wieght foreign coins for silver rounds? The metal buyer in town is also a coin dealer and I have an inventory of what coin weighs what..

Padre,
I'm not a big fan of numismatic/collectible coins, since in a time of crisis they'll serve little practical purpose.  I'm no expert and I can't legally make a recommendation
to you, but I can tell you what I'm doing and you can use that information to form your own choice. I going to sell all my inherited coin collection and turn it into silver
bullion rounds. I'll keep some Wheatback (real) pennies and all the "junk" silver, since those will serve as great barter power.

There's really no telling what Silver will do. I've heard so many scenarios, but the common belief is that it will soar on both commercial and investment demand.
Its cheap, currently plentiful (even though above ground supply growth is being slowly outstripped by demand), and the potential gains are much greater than
that of gold. I own mostly silver (rounds, with a bit in silver Liberties). I continue to buy both silver and gold as often as possible.

Shrike
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on October 28, 2007, 06:51:46 pm


Well, from my experience Shrike, people, even people with money, are easily led around by the latest tale of either greed or loss.

Thus I also expect a dual rise in both the price of silver, and the price of silver collectible coins, the tow are linked actually, so my "free" silver Danmark horde I expect to be able to either trade for "less' valuable rounds, the mark up is much higher on the Danmark coins, so it would not seem unrealistic to parlay that value into even more silver if there is a run up in the spot price.

However you may have misread my question, that was concerning the bastard weight foreign coins, like 1880's era Columbian dimes for example, would it be better to trade that for silver rounds or leave it in it's current state?

The foreign stuff has much less of an appreciation value IMO, to me it's just scrap silver.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Gypsy on October 28, 2007, 08:29:20 pm
And now the US dollar is worth less then the Canadian dollar.
 :angry:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on October 28, 2007, 08:58:42 pm
Silver and gold will zig-zag for an unforeseeable time. The trend will be upward. Silver has a lot farther to rise than gold, thus is a better investment. It also is less likely to be confiscated by political desperadoes - score another for silver.

One day the rocket will launch and both will take off in value leaving everyone who had been watching in the sidelines to kick themselves.  Don't be on the sidelines.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DrillSgtK on October 29, 2007, 09:01:02 am
Back in 1991 I started buying silver and gold, because "gold was going to hit $1,000 an oz soon!" It was around 380 and soon spiked to over 400! What a deal! I'm catching the wave...right at the crest. it then dropped to less than 350. All in one year. I was putting 50% of my income into this. I knew government was going to destroy the economy, if not Bush then the next president. Every time the price dropped I would get told it's just a correction! Buy more! (from me!).

I stopped buying in bulk, and started buying small amounts and mixed in silver and started putting "extra" money into some stocks. I watched the price of gold drop all the way down to 250, kept buying small amounts on a regular basis. I am still doing that. Yes, gold/silver may hit 50 and 2,000. Or it may not. I don't think it's a good idea to be sinking a lot of cash (never put it on credit!) into gold/silver that you need for paying bills and food. [if your paying cash for gold and credit for food it's the same as paying credit for gold if that is why you used the credit.]

Avoid the how high it's going to go stories. Most who push them seem to offer to sell you gold now, it's just a correction it's posed to go higher!

On a side note, the first two oz i bought in 1991 for 392 ea. when adjusted for inflation for 2006 FRN's would be 538. Since gold ran about 640 in 2006, I guess I've come out ahead...after fifteen years. So if your buying, think long term. The "junk" silver and less than an oz gold is a great idea. Throw in some old circulated dollars and silver eagles and your "collecting" coins not "hording". When in a coin shop, ask about the history of some of the coins, like "why a three cent nickle?" or "why did they change the designers so much on older coins?" You learn a lot about US history.

I recently got an Whitman book of quarters, half filled at a yard sale. $5 for the book and about half (15) were pre-1964.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Lenny on October 29, 2007, 09:42:08 am
Back in 1991 I started buying silver and gold, because "gold was going to hit $1,000 an oz soon!" It was around 380 and soon spiked to over 400! What a deal! I'm catching the wave...right at the crest. it then dropped to less than 350. All in one year. I was putting 50% of my income into this. I knew government was going to destroy the economy, if not Bush then the next president. Every time the price dropped I would get told it's just a correction! Buy more! (from me!).

I think you've hit the nub. I doubt anyone here disagrees that paper currency is heading for a day of reckoning, and that ultimately hard money is the only real money. The problem is that one can't "time the market." Even while the SHTF, some people will do pretty well for themselves while most others are doing very badly. And the process can take a long time, with ups and downs along the way--just as the gold market will have significant ups and downs along the way as well. Things aren't even as bad as the '70s yet--which forever in my mind recalls the guy on Barney Miller (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barney_Miller) who sold all his (wife's) possessions (http://www.tv.com/barney-miller/the-sighting/episode/4125/summary.html) to buy gold.

In the long run, it's sound advice--but there's no telling how long the "long run" is going to be.

--Len.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on October 29, 2007, 11:39:41 am
(http://toddmontanye.com/xg/au00.gif)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on October 29, 2007, 12:06:14 pm
Hmmm.  To a casual observer, there appears to be a pattern. 

Perhaps a government grant to study the situation would be good.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: iloilo on October 29, 2007, 12:58:51 pm
Hmmm.  To a casual observer, there appears to be a pattern. 

Perhaps a government grant to study the situation would be good.

 :sign10:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on October 31, 2007, 08:30:59 pm


Comex gold futures punctured the 800 dollar barrier today, they got up to 800.80.

In 1980, they got as high as 875 or so.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on October 31, 2007, 09:05:29 pm
Adjusted for inflation (the FED littering the world with paper dollars), the number is around $2,000 per ounce.  It has a long ways to go and may rush there.  I wouldn't recommend sitting your hands watching the show.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DrillSgtK on November 01, 2007, 09:24:51 am
Bill Bonner wrote yesterday (31 October) "Everyone thinks the stock market is doing well…but look what it has done in terms of real money - gold. Richard Russell reminds us that you could have bought an ounce of gold on January 18th, 1980, for $835. On that same day, the Dow was only a little higher, at 867. In other words, you could have bought almost the entire Dow for one ounce of gold.

Oh, if only we had been around then to give you a Trade of the Decade - sell gold, buy the Dow. You could have watched your stocks go over 13,000…while gold fell below $270, at which point you could have traded your Dow stocks for 43 ounces of gold! What a trade!

Unfortunately, the Internet hadn't been invented…The Daily Reckoning hadn't been imagined…and your editor hadn't the sense to make the call anyway. He was convinced, along with the rest of the gold bugs, that gold would keep going up. He was, of course, dead wrong. Gold fell and the Dow rose…not just for one decade…but for two!

But 20 years is a long time to suffer a bear market in your favorite commodity. It gives a man a reason to think…and time to do it. If he is still solvent…and still compus mentis…at the end of it, he has a great advantage over other mortals. He has made such a huge mistake for such a long time, the law of averages begins to work for him. Nobody can be that stupid forever.
Finally, the porch light comes on. 'Hey…' he says to himself. 'Markets go up…and down.'

And so, with the confidence of the recently humiliated, your editor gave his legendary Trade of the Decade signal in January 2000: sell the Dow, buy gold. Since then, price of gold has more than doubled…and the Dow has edged up a tiny bit. Instead of getting 43 ounces of gold for the Dow, today, you will not even get 18.

We are only about half way through this cycle, we reckon. The Dow and gold will meet again, somewhere in the future. Probably somewhere in the middle - around 7,000…when investors have been turned off to U.S. stocks, and the Dow has sunk…and when speculators have bid up the price of gold to dizzy heights.

Then, trust us this time, dear reader, we will remember to give the 'sell gold, buy the Dow' signal. At least, we hope so."

As for me, well if I had the money I would buy a lot of gold and silver. Since I dont' have a lot of money, I am buying small amounts of gold and silver. I'm also working to get rid of all the debt i've racked up over the years. That way I have more money to buy gold and silver with :) (one year and i've got rid of 20K of debt.)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on November 01, 2007, 11:42:52 am
I dunno... with inflation running 15% and accelerating, I'm more interested in silver than paying off 5% debt.  It seems some folks are willing to loan me money at a 10% annual loss to them.  Why would I pay it back now?

While the little Puritanical conservative in my head whispers "Be debt free", the little accountants and economists in my head keep shouting him down with "BUY SILVER".
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on November 01, 2007, 02:17:22 pm
I dunno... with inflation running 15% and accelerating, I'm more interested in silver than paying off 5% debt.
It seems some folks are willing to loan me money at a 10% annual loss to them.  Why would I pay it back now?

While the little Puritanical conservative in my head whispers "Be debt free", the little accountants and economists
in my head keep shouting him down with "BUY SILVER".

Pluses and Minuses... Always.

That inflation favors the debtor is well known.
Thus I've often wondered at the "no debt" advice.
The minus comes from losing the income stream that services the debt.
So I prefer to keep a FRN convertible handy to the amount of the debt,
even though, there is no longer debtor-prison.

Widening the scope...the bank creates the money as an accounting
slot incurring a 10% 'reserve debt' to the fed. Thus 5% on the
principal converts to 50% on the reserve debt minus the 15 points
of inflation or 35% (as compared to the 10-20% return on business or
stock). If the bank happens not to have the FRNs to cover that 10%,
they 'borrow' it from the fed at 5% and reduce profit by 5 points to
*only* 30%. Thus, by staying out of debt, one does not support the big
con, i.e., the banker's cartel. And that provides incentive to avoid
debt (or to start a 'bank' :-).

Returning to the 'other side', as there is not about to be a rush to the
freedom side of the political spectrum, there is as little chance of a rush
to stop banking or using FRNs. Based on that, I minimize debt and
FRN use, rather than be a supporter of the big lie.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Lenny on November 01, 2007, 02:28:38 pm
That inflation favors the debtor is well known...
The minus comes from losing the income stream that services the debt...

Yep. I'm all about debt reduction, primarily for the reason you give. If anything happens to my income, I don't want to lose my house. If the house is paid off (which it isn't yet), and the economy really tanks, I can always get a job doing whatever, and demand my wages in potatoes.

If the debts were paid off, I wouldn't mind storing up a year's pay or so in specie in case of a real rough patch. But I don't really base much financial planning on TEOTWAKI, because I figger in that case we'll all be eating tree bark, the only hard currency will be .30/06, and gold will only slow me down heading for the hills--especially considering the ammo I'd have to leave behind to make room for the gold.

--Len.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DrillSgtK on November 01, 2007, 03:17:31 pm
My debt is not something like a house or student loan with fixed intrest rates, it's bad choices with credit cards and CON-solidation loans all with adjustable rates. (the lowest is 9.89% and the highest is 23.79%)

If it was a house or they were fixed rates that would be different. Since as we approach TEOTWAKI people who let me have money will hike the rates and want to get something from me. Once TEOTWAKI hits it would not be a problem, but I don't see that as a one day event but rather stretched out over several years. The situation in Zimbabwe's did not happen over night.

I would argue that we still have a debtors prison, for those who have integrity. You get the letter saying "You owe X, we let you have it on the terms you agree with." Gosh, I feel bad when I can't pay what I agree to pay. I think it's worse than prison. That is why the wife and I chopped up the cards, went to cash only, careful budgetting, saving for emergency's, and trying to get rid of the (bad) debt as fast as we can. Our kids will be raised debt free and with a good understanding of Austrian economics!
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on November 01, 2007, 03:39:07 pm


IMO, gold and silver may take a large step up this week and next week, Gold opened sharply down today, 10 dollars down, then mid day rebounded on Citigroup's terrible credit problem, and Gold regained it's losses.

Same thing with silver, opened sharply down (60 cents or so) and rebounded back over 14.00 again, this is the longest that Silver has been over 14.00 in a while in this market.

To me, that means that some money is hedging their bets in PM's, the earnings reports for Banks are only going to get worse, so we may see a bit of a spike in PM prices his week and next.

Should be fun.
Title: Go for Gold
Post by: Junker on November 01, 2007, 04:29:38 pm
MvMI (http://www.mises.org)

Go for Gold (http://www.mises.org/story/2743) by Thorsten Polleit

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Mr. Bill on November 02, 2007, 03:05:26 pm
Not that it's a big surprise, but gold broke $800/oz today.  The end-of-week close for spot gold bid was $806, and $14.53 for silver.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Gypsy on November 05, 2007, 01:11:36 pm
I'm trying to find a suppler in the Northeast. Anyone know a reliable one?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on November 07, 2007, 07:47:46 am
Not that it's a big surprise, but gold broke $800/oz today.  The end-of-week close for spot gold bid was $806, and $14.53 for silver.


840 and 15.61 so far today, if oil crosses 100 bbl, we could see 900 dollar gold.

How cool, when I was a lad, I remember 800 gold, now here it is again, only it is climbing in value.

Silver seems to be lagging though, 2 dollars vs 50 an oz increases seems a bit "off" to me at least, silver still is a relative bargain if you are speculating, if buying to hold, not so much.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on November 07, 2007, 10:50:53 am
Quote
That inflation favors the debtor is well known.

It would be more accurate to say that increasing inflation favors the debtor.
Think about it: if there is a stable level of inflation, the lender just prices that
into the interest rate. If the inflation rate increases in some unpredictable way,
then the lender is caught flat-footed.

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Mr. Bill on November 07, 2007, 10:55:01 am
How will we know when the price of gold is realistic vs when it's too high due to an investment bubble?  Just a few thoughts:

The record high price of gold was about $850 in 1980.  According to the official CPI numbers (http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl) (if you believe them), that $850 is equivalent to about $2150 in 2007 dollars.  That price appears to have been partly a speculative bubble.

The record low price of gold in the post-bubble years was about $250 in 1999, or about $313 in 2007 dollars.  I think that price was unrealistically low.

The current price seems fairly realistic, although the unusual jump over the past week may be a bit of "irrational exuberance".

It's hard to predict what will happen because the big players (central banks) may well start dumping gold to take advantage of current prices.  On the other hand, if that doesn't happen, the speculators might take gold up to silly levels.  My feeling is that, if gold tops $2000 within the next year, that is very likely a speculative bubble.

Something I wrote here a couple years ago, about what the 1980 bubble looked like:
...I sure remember that period -- it's when my wife-to-be and I were shopping for gold wedding rings! The real bubble-mentality chaos was on display at the places where "cheap" gold jewelry was sold -- department-store jewelry counters and the like, where rings were marked with price codes and there was a daily price list that raised prices proportional to the spot gold price. This was silly: only a fraction of the cost of a gold ring is the gold in it -- the rest is the value of the workmanship that went into making the ring. The cheapo workmanship in department-store gold rings doesn't increase in value just because gold's price goes up! Yet there were dozens of customers urgent to buy this junk.

If you see that happening again, you'll know we're at the peak of a gold bubble.

[Edited for inabillity to spel.]
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on November 07, 2007, 11:51:08 am


The two things to keep in mind about Gold and Silver as investment are:

1. The market for both is relatively small, speculation in either doesn't cost much to engage in.

2. The central banks have for years "loaned" out gold to be used in carry trades, if they try to recapture their gold, it could cause further chaos and rising prices.

Silver is an industrial metal, but 95% of the silver market isn't industrial uses, so basically it has value as an investment medium only, if interest falls, that is the end of the silver bull.

But even still, it is somewhat nice to look at a pile of increasing in price silver rounds, and a mound of scrap gold..wondering "Should I sell into this strength"?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Shrike on November 07, 2007, 02:22:03 pm
I've been following silver and gold for about two years now but, while I'm no expert by any stretch, I've been reading
of a general consensus among well-respected economists and speculators that it is quite probable that silver will go to
at least $50.00/oz, with a very real possibility that it could go to over $100.00/oz. Estimates of $150/oz are not at all
uncommon. Above-ground silver inventories are nearly tapped and no significant mining operations are coming online
anytime soon, which will help drive the demand and thus the price of silver to new, uncharted heights. Just to break
even with an inflation-adjusted high, silver would have to go to around $120.00/oz. and I think its pretty safe to say that
today's economic landscape will push PMs to the Moon, along with many energy and food related commodities for which
our insatiable appetite will only grow.

Buy gold and silver while they're still within your financial grasp. Sooner than you think, they won't be. Especially when
they're dancing on the grave of the Dollar.

Shrike
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Gypsy on November 15, 2007, 02:40:26 pm
I need help. Where can I get silver rounds at decent price(not $2.00 over spot)??????


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on November 15, 2007, 03:34:30 pm
Quote
I need help. Where can I get silver rounds at decent price(not $2.00 over spot)


I'm sure you will get a lot of responses, but here's a start:

http://www.brokencc.com
http://www.golddealer.com

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on November 16, 2007, 12:23:06 am
There is plenty of healthy competition for gold and silver coin sales.  I like Northwest Territorial Mint. Great service, good prices, close enough I could drive there if lightening strikes my checkbook and I can buy gobs of it. I have both bought and sold from/to them and been happy on both ends.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on November 16, 2007, 01:49:17 pm
fyi links:

Googling (http://www.google.com/search?as_q=&hl=en&num=10&btnG=Google+Search&as_epq=Northwest+Territorial+Mint&as_oq=&as_eq=&lr=&cr=&as_ft=i&as_filetype=&as_qdr=all&as_nlo=&as_nhi=&as_occt=any&as_dt=i&as_sitesearch=&as_rights=&safe=images) gets 17,700 hits for "Northwest Territorial Mint":


Custom Minting - Military Challenge Coins - Northwest Territorial Mint
Specializing in minting custom coins, medallions and ... http://www.nwtmint.com

Northwest Territorial Mint Bullion Sales - a major dealer in gold, silver, platinum and palladium bullion in the US and Canada. We buy and sell precious metals, ...
http://www.nwtmintbullion.com

90% Silver Bags Bullion Sales - Northwest Territorial Mint, Silver Bullion Sales...
http://www.nwtmintbullion.com/silver_bags.php

Developing: Northwest Territorial Mint NIGHTMARE - Gold & Silver Forum
http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=12590

Northwest Territorial Mint Blog - http://northwestterritorialmint.net

Northwest Territorial Mint - http://northwestterritorialmint.org

About Northwest Territorial Mint - has served the precious metals bullion investment community for over 20 years, and is a dealer both buying and selling gold, ...
http://www.silverpa.com/about_nwtmint.html

Northwest Territorial Mint Web site is all gold - Puget Sound ... in Auburn and is the official mint for the Northwest. It is licensed to produce all kinds of precious metals ...
http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2003/03/24/focus6.html
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Shrike on November 20, 2007, 12:10:07 am
I need help. Where can I get silver rounds at decent price(not $2.00 over spot)??????



Gypsy,
American Precious Metals Exchange, or Apmex, sells silver rounds for between 20 and 85 cents over spot.
These are for .999 fine silver rounds, either generic or Apmex brand. I can attest to Apmex's very professional
service standard. They deliver very quickly, have about the best prices I've ever found on gold and silver and
you can even order online with a credit card (although that costs a bit more). I highly recommend them.

http://www.apmex.com

Shrike
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Gypsy on November 20, 2007, 07:30:03 am

Thanks Everyone!!!!
I placed an small order (25 1oz. coins) with AMPEX this morning. Starting to look like a good start. Any more suggestions would be greatly appreciated.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on November 20, 2007, 10:44:35 am

90% Silver Bags Bullion Sales - Northwest Territorial Mint, Silver Bullion Sales...
http://www.nwtmintbullion.com/silver_bags.php


Diversify. 

Get some pre-'65 US coins, aka "junk silver", also "90% silver".  I think the smaller increments of dimes and quarters will be necessary for more common transactions.

Get current-production nickels. Already worth 6.1 cents in metal content alone (see http://www.coinflation.com/) they will be going away soon, but today can be bought a few rolls at a time from your local bank for $2 each (worth $2.40 melted, but a lot more later).

Get current-production pennies. Though only copper-clad tin, they are worth 0.6 cents in metal.

In the likely scenario where the dollar goes the way of all prior fiat currencies, silver and gold could go up by 1,000 times (probably more, but so hard to believe).  Dollars become completely useless. You can't trade and barter for everything. Currency is crucial for productive specialization. A dime for a haircut, two cents for a cup of coffee, a nickel for a loaf of bread ...  a whole lot of pre-inflation transactions will again become the norm. 

It isn't that far fetched when you realize that since the founding of the Federal Reserve, the US dollar value has declined by 96%. Apply that factor to everyday transactions and you can see how effective a metal-based currency would be - will be.

Ah, and each community will have to have someone with quite a bit of real coins stashed just to meet the demand. When this gets figured out, prices as denominated in feral reserve notes will skyrocket.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Shrike on November 20, 2007, 10:00:29 pm
Gypsy,
Slideman's advice is sound. I've not invested in any junk silver yet, but planning on doing so
as part of my next purchase. The Slidenator isn't the only one giving this advice, either. Many
other well respected folk are recommending such action. Doesn't hurt to hedge your bets
whenever you can.

Thx Slideman,

Shrike
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Gypsy on November 21, 2007, 10:30:02 pm
I still have friends collecting "old" coins for me. It's working pretty good, mostly dimes and quarters but I got a few half dollars too. As soon as I can get the cash together I'll try to get a bag (250.00 face ?)of junk silver.

thanks again for all the help. maybe I'll figure all this out before I make to big of a screwup.

G
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on November 30, 2007, 10:19:25 pm
A Review of Figures: inflation v. cost of PM convertion


Dallas Fed Trimmed mean Personal Consumption Expenditures
MayJun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.
2.42.32.22.12.22.2

μ = 2.23%/mo or 26.76%/yr


 Au      Ag
$783.80 $14.03

you sellyou buy
781.60-2.20-0.28%785.30+1.50+0.19%3.700.47% Au
13.88-0.15-1.07%14.13+0.10+0.71%0.251.78% Ag

Au recovery days =  6.3
Ag recovery days = 23.9

Refigure with your costs to send & receive the FRNs for each conversion and you have "your" figures.

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Myrkul on December 01, 2007, 12:03:38 am
Wow, junker... that's the first time I've seen you post utter gibberish.

lol... Could someone make sense out of that for me?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on December 01, 2007, 01:39:39 pm
Quote
Wow, junker... that's the first time I've seen you post utter gibberish.

lol... Could someone make sense out of that for me?

Myrkul,

I'm not really sure either, but I'm guessing that Junker is making two points:

1) If you consider the increase in consumer spending to be a defacto measure
of inflation, inflation is a hell of lot higher than we're lead to believe (26% annualized).

2) Considering the real rate of inflation, it takes only a short time to regain
the real cost of buying or selling gold and silver. I.E, don't get hung up on the
price so much because you are not buying and selling with constant value dollars.

Junker, was I close?

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on December 01, 2007, 02:21:36 pm
Yes, exactly, Bear. :-)

Sorry, Myrkul.
The context is my previous postings about keeping out of dollars to avoid loss by inflation, and thus converting extra dollar holdings into PMs and back if you need/want to spend holdings/savings later.

- - - - -
A Review of Figures: inflation v. cost of PM convertion

Dallas Fed Trimmed mean Personal Consumption Expenditures (a CPI or measure of inflation)
MayJun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.
2.42.32.22.12.22.2

μ = 2.23%/mo or 26.76%/yr


 Au      Ag
$783.80 $14.03 (current oz. prices for gold=Au, silver=Ag)

12345678
you sellyou buy
781.60-2.20-0.28%785.30+1.50+0.19%3.700.47% Au
13.88-0.15-1.07%14.13+0.10+0.71%0.251.78% Ag

Notes:
1. you sell the PM, current sell price/oz
2. $Δ - dollar amount difference between current spot price and sale price
3. %Δ  - percentage difference between current spot price and sale price
4. you buy the PM, current buy price/oz
5. $Δ - dollar amount difference between current spot price and buy price
6. %Δ - percentage amount difference between current spot price and buy price
7.$Σ - total dollar cost to buy PM, than sell PM, i.e. cost to go in and out
8. % - total percentage cost to buy PM, than sell PM, i.e. cost to go in and out


number of days to recover conversion costs, a one-time in and out, by saving loss from inflation for those days
Au recovery days =  6.3
Ag recovery days = 23.9

Refigure with your costs to send & receive the FRNs for each conversion and you have "your" figures. (There are other costs in the conversion process, but they depend on an individual's choices/situation. First, the conversion of $s to PMs: The $s must be sent to the PM seller. That may be check by post, electronic transfer of funds, etc. So, choice & cost for the person doing it. I wire the funds at ~$15.00/wire. So add $15 to $Σ. Second, the conversion of PMs to $s: This depends on who your PMs are with. I get a check by post-cost to me is mostly zero, but there is a time delay. So no change in $Σ.)
- - - - -

Example:

'John' get paid for the month, $10,000. His monthly budget is $6,000 and so he has $4,000 to convert to PM in order to avoid the loss to inflation. So, $4,000÷781.60=5+ or 5 oz Au@$3908 leaving $92 for Ag. $92÷14.03=6.55+ and per his SOP, ups it to the next whol number or 7 oz Ag@$98.21. $3,908+98.21=4,006.21 total. He goes online and orders the 5ozAu and 7ozAg at his PM dealer and calls his bank to wire the $4,006.21 to his PM dealer costing $15 for the wire. Knowing the above-illustrated relationships, he is assured that he will recoup the costs in a short time and avoid losing ¼ of his savings for the month (some $1,000!) over the next year.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Myrkul on December 01, 2007, 02:44:27 pm
Ah... Well, that makes sense now. Thank you, Junker.

Now, I was wondering, What would happen, in the best case scenario, RP gets elected, and succeeds in erasing the Fed?

Is the Dollar's purchasing power going to JUMP back up to the pre-1913 standard, or will it be a steady climb? (Although Dr. Paul himself has said that he'd most likely simply introduce a competing, PM-backed currency, and let the Market sort it out.) Would it be more advantageous to continue purchasing PM, or start getting rid of it?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on December 01, 2007, 04:28:02 pm
Good, I'm glad to add. I too often leave detail out, as I type too slowly.

Now, first post on

Now, I was wondering, What would happen, in the best case scenario, RP gets elected, and succeeds in erasing the Fed?

Is the Dollar's purchasing power going to JUMP back up to the pre-1913 standard, or will it be a steady climb? (Although Dr. Paul himself has said that he'd most likely simply introduce a competing, PM-backed currency, and let the Market sort it out.) Would it be more advantageous to continue purchasing PM, or start getting rid of it?

This, my first post is my short, to-the-point answer to "Is the Dollar's purchasing power going to JUMP back".

No, unequivically, no. Physically impossible.


Even given the strongest position= one person is *completely* in charge of US govt, this one person is totally devoted to increasing the value of the US dollar, AND is totally smart, it would still take years to significantly increase the value of the US dollar.

And in the sense of the US dollar price vs. the PM prices, a person would have those years to see what was happening and reconvert from PMs to $s, costing the convert price at that time, still prolly about 1%.


Having written that, I am less interested in writing the 'long' version. So, I'll wait for further Q's or such.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on December 01, 2007, 11:10:20 pm
Quote
Even given the strongest position= one person is *completely* in charge of US govt, this one person is totally devoted to increasing the value of the US dollar, AND is totally smart, it would still take years to significantly increase the value of the US dollar.

Maybe, maybe not. I don't think the value will ever 'jump' back, but it could spring back faster
than we might think (taking months instead of years).

Consider -- with a fiat currency, if a bank writes off a bad real-estate loan in default, the
money ceases to exist. If the money ceases to exist*, the total pool of money shrinks,
increasing the value of each remaining dollar. Granted, it would take a global financial
tsunami to get the dollar anywhere near where it was when the Fed was created. (It would
require something like the destruction of 95% of existing dollars to get there.)

Bear

* Here's my thinking about that: If the loan is in default, the loan is worthless and has no
value. At a minimum, the present value of the loan ceases to exist. In normal times, the
bank would forclose and resell the property to recoup some of their capital. Since property
values are generally declining, it's not likely that the banks will get all, or even a significant
fraction of their money loaned. The money is gone.

The home owners don't have the money either, since their property's value has tanked,
and it's been repossed anyway.

The new buyer of the property doesn't have the money, since his purchase price
(much lower than the original) is his reference point. The only equity he has in the property
is the equity he put in at the purchase by a deposit. He is neither ahead nor behind at the
moment he purchases the property.

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Jonas Parker on December 02, 2007, 11:12:17 am
Quote
Even given the strongest position= one person is *completely* in charge of US govt, this one person is totally devoted to increasing the value of the US dollar, AND is totally smart, it would still take years to significantly increase the value of the US dollar.

Maybe, maybe not. I don't think the value will ever 'jump' back, but it could spring back faster
than we might think (taking months instead of years).

Consider -- with a fiat currency, if a bank writes off a bad real-estate loan in default, the
money ceases to exist. If the money ceases to exist*, the total pool of money shrinks,
increasing the value of each remaining dollar. Granted, it would take a global financial
tsunami to get the dollar anywhere near where it was when the Fed was created. (It would require something like the destruction of 95% of existing dollars to get there.)

Bear

* Here's my thinking about that: If the loan is in default, the loan is worthless and has no
value. At a minimum, the present value of the loan ceases to exist. In normal times, the bank would foreclose and resell the property to recoup some of their capital. Since property values are generally declining, it's not likely that the banks will get all, or even a significant fraction of their money loaned. The money is gone.

The home owners don't have the money either, since their property's value has tanked,
and it's been repossessed anyway.

The new buyer of the property doesn't have the money, since his purchase price
(much lower than the original) is his reference point. The only equity he has in the property is the equity he put in at the purchase by a deposit. He is neither ahead nor behind at the moment he purchases the property.

Fortunately or unfortunately, the financial "tsunami" is roaring at us. The large banks and brokerage houses have billions (perhaps trillions) of dollars of nearly worthless derivatives carried on their balance sheets as assets priced in worthless fiat dollars. What we have here is a financial game of "hot potato", where the last one holding it (the potato or the fiat dollar) is stuck with it.

So let me trot out another scenario. The Federal Reserve declares itself (or is declared by a Federal judge to be) bankrupt. Not only are all FRNs now valueless, but all those holding them are simply out of luck. US Treasury Bills, having been issued by the US government rather than the Federal Reserve Bank, are not affected. Take the scenario a bit further. The US Government (not the Federal Reserve Bank, which is neither Federal nor has any reserves) re-institutes the US dollar, backed by US Government gold at Ft. Knox, land holdings, and mineral rights, based on a realistic current value of gold and silver. Now we no longer have a fiat currency.

A whole lot of "foreign investors" are going to be left holding the bag, but then again, they were dumb enough to accept fiat FRNs in the first place. A whole lot of brokerage houses will "go broke" (pun intended) as their fraudulent "assets" are seen as such. Will the US government "redeem" FRNs?  I hope not! It will take a few months or years to shake out, but the US economy will certainly be stronger, and the strength of a "real" dollar will, in the long term, benefit us all...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on December 02, 2007, 01:36:14 pm
Jonas,

That's an interesting idea. However, I can't see the Federal government going back to
a special dollar (gold backed or silver backed) until two things happen:

1.The complete destruction of the dollar as we know it is an accomplished fact, and,
2.The people themselves have learned to distrust ANY fiat currency.

If TPTB try to institute a specie dollar before then, they could end up causing the
complete collapse of the economy while trying to solve the problem. I don't think
any politician wants to be associated with a disaster like that. The other reason
for keeping the game going is that a fiat dollar allows them to keep cheating by
inflating the currency. They like doing that, and the way they work depends on
being able to continue doing that.

The other fly in the ointment is that if you took all of the gold in Fort Knox and used
it to back up all of the dollars that now exist, gold would $10,000 an ounce. If you
were to do that right now, it means an instant devaluation of the dollar, such that
it would only be worth 800/10,000 of it's current value (That's 8%, or a 92% loss
of the current, nearly-already-worthless state.)

So, I think it's both safe and prudent to own gold. The dollar may make a come back,
some day, but it won't happen in any meaningful way without a huge amount of pain.

Bear
Title: 2007's gold chart. $650-$850
Post by: Junker on January 01, 2008, 01:14:16 pm
This was a graphic of gold chart-2007. Holding site is now gone,
see http://www.kitco.com/charts/
for current & historic silver, gold, etc graphs.

Edit: updated.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on January 01, 2008, 08:05:08 pm
I'll see your chart and raise you one:

(http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag1825nys.gif)
Title: Got gold? Or Hesitation Blues?
Post by: Junker on January 05, 2008, 11:30:42 am
Have You Got the Hesitation Blues? (http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north596.html) by Gary North

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on February 02, 2008, 06:50:07 pm
LRC (http://www.lewrockwell.com):

What Will You Do With Your Gold? (http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north600.html) by Gary North


Another golden Northy.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on February 04, 2008, 06:11:35 pm
Among the comments at

Rogers Rips Bernanke, Predicts Demise of Fed (http://blog.mises.org/archives/007726.asp)

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Apple on February 05, 2008, 02:49:07 pm
One wonders how Greenspan ever ended up being the head honcho of the federal reserve :headscratch:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bill St. Clair on February 05, 2008, 03:05:40 pm
Got a chance to photograph a 1 ounce Krugerrand:

http://billstclair.com/Krugerand-768x733.jpg
http://billstclair.com/Krugerand-reverse-768x731.jpg
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Roy J. Tellason on February 06, 2008, 01:25:39 am
Got a chance to photograph a 1 ounce Krugerrand:

http://billstclair.com/Krugerand-768x733.jpg
http://billstclair.com/Krugerand-reverse-768x731.jpg

Nice pics...

I wanna go someplace and feel the heft of one in my hand!  :-)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Phssthpok on February 06, 2008, 05:30:00 am
Got a chance to photograph a 1 ounce Krugerrand:

http://billstclair.com/Krugerand-768x733.jpg
http://billstclair.com/Krugerand-reverse-768x731.jpg

Nice pics...

I wanna go someplace and feel the heft of one in my hand!  :-)


You gunna be a GCMIV this summer? I got one I can bring. (or we meet for that beer in P-town beforehand like we discussed last year.)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Roy J. Tellason on February 09, 2008, 03:02:22 am
Got a chance to photograph a 1 ounce Krugerrand:

http://billstclair.com/Krugerand-768x733.jpg
http://billstclair.com/Krugerand-reverse-768x731.jpg

Nice pics...

I wanna go someplace and feel the heft of one in my hand!  :-)


You gunna be a GCMIV this summer? I got one I can bring. (or we meet for that beer in P-town beforehand like we discussed last year.)

Not likely,  unless things get *very* weird and life throws some really unexpected stuff my way!  :-)

Maybe someday.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bill St. Clair on February 09, 2008, 04:46:26 am
I took a couple of photos of a 1999 Silver Eagle, too. More beautiful than the Krugerrand to my eye, though not to my pocket.

http://billstclair.com/coins.html

I have a whole bunch of foreign coins that I've collected over the years, but I think they're all worthless tokens, sorta like US coins since 1965, so I doubt I'll bother to photograph them.
Title: Got gold? global financial system about to collapse
Post by: Junker on February 19, 2008, 10:20:18 am
Why the global financial system is about to collapse (http://www.rayservers.com/blog/why-the-global-financial-system-is-about-to-collapse)

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on February 19, 2008, 11:12:16 am
So er uh.......just what is anyone going to do with all this gold and silver if no one produces anything to buy or sell?

Folks buying gold and silver is just dandy.......but without people producing products or providing services you're living on borrowed time.......
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: TooTallDawkins on February 19, 2008, 11:15:28 am
   Even if we revert to an economy similar to the Middle Ages, gold/silver will be needed. Products will be made, but perhaps of a different nature, satisfying needs, not wants.

Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Mr. Dare on February 19, 2008, 12:22:41 pm
   I would also point out that if the economy "reverts to the middle ages", it will be the LATE middle ages, right before the Renaissance. With the knowledge base that would be preserved I really don't think it would be all that bad in the long run. Quite to the contrary, if the people are returned to more equal economic footing when the repressive world banking system collapses, we would have the opportunity to rebuild rather quickly to a more decentralized world in which we might be free to live with considerably more autonomous control over our lives. Converting assets away from fiat currency is always a good idea, so is buying books and tools, as well as learning "trades" that could be useful when the restrictive practices which force centralization of industry are shaken to the foundations.
   The only thing really in danger of collapse is the centralized power structure and it's insanely precarious fiscal management of our lives. We should all be better off shortly after the collapse if the survivalist mentality of killing everything that moves and taking their resources left over from the old economy don't hold sway. A scenario which I don't see as probable.
  I am greatly encouraged by the lack of looter type of survivalist mentality which prevails on these forums. By being smart and with careful planning we can turn this into an opportunity to reclaim our freedom on the outside not just from within.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on February 19, 2008, 01:06:18 pm
Quote
I am greatly encouraged by the lack of looter type of survivalist mentality which prevails on these forums. By being smart and with careful planning we can turn this into an opportunity to reclaim our freedom on the outside not just from within.

Yup that's the road of human beings.....the looter mentality is one of the things that scares the hell out of folks.....including me....and in my arrogant opinion.......it's not helping the freedom movement......not one goddamn bit...


I personally believe that a "friendom movement" will go MUCH further than a freedom movement....and that's what I works towards.....every day.......
Strangers aren't my enemies until they prove themselves to be.....until then they're just friends I haven't met yet.....


I will NOT allow the nasty bastards in DC to "divide and conquer" me.......
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: iloilo on February 19, 2008, 02:07:42 pm
The state has, in order to control us, introduced division into our thinking, so that we come to distrust others and look to the state for protection!  But the roots of our individualism remind us that what we are is inseparable from the source from which all others derive; that coercive practices that threaten our neighbor also threaten us.
-Butler Shaffer
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Apple on February 20, 2008, 04:14:26 am
One thing I haven't seen discussed here is how to get your life savings in gold (or silver) across the border. If you have emigration plans, or simply decide that life has become unlivable under the heel of your nation-state's thugs, what options are there for your precious metal holdings? They seem incompatible with border checkpoints (especially those inside airports) in today's world.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on February 20, 2008, 04:55:19 am
SA,

And awful lot of folks have asked me about that.........but this is MY fucking country......and I'm not leaving........
if the statists don't like it....well then they can get out.....
My lineage is traceable back to the 1700's...........in New Hampshire.........my family name is respected and important there.......french and indian........I guess there's some big lake there....and my family owns a lot of the land on that lake.....My Dad told me bout it years ago......he showed me a "tin type" of great granny....with her corncob pipe and bottle of whiskey....and told me how they smuggled booze in during prohibition...and kept it cold via trapdoors the dropped into underground springs around that lake.....and the "old man of the mountain" and a glimmer in his eye.......and what that meant.....


Ghandi said it best when he said........they can kill me.....but they won't have my obedience.....all they'll have is my dead body.....
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Apple on February 20, 2008, 06:10:57 am
Zoot,

I'm glad you and yours are in the place where you want to be. Unfortunately the situation is different for me. Most importantly, this place is overcrowded, and in the case of a major SHTF event, it won't be able to support itself at the current population levels. I don't want to be here when the population is forcibly reset to sustainable levels.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on February 20, 2008, 10:49:04 am
I don't want to be here when the population is forcibly reset to sustainable levels.

Better start moving.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 20, 2008, 09:11:25 pm
One thing I haven't seen discussed here is how to get your life savings in gold (or silver) across the border...

Well, depending on your current situation... If you don't mind interacting with the banking system, and getting lots of suspicious activity reports filed about you by your bank, you could send money to an overseas bank and have them buy gold for you.

There are a ton of obvious disadvantages to this.  Like, the gold is not in your hands where you can see it and get to it.  But for some people it might be a useful option.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: iloilo on February 20, 2008, 09:19:50 pm
In the past few weeks, I have had a couple of good friends who converted everything they owned to gold, one drove her packed to the top pick up down to Panama, the other one shipped the gold to her via a secure courier service ( yes, they still exist) then he packed the other pickup and followed her down once they had the gold secure in another country.
There they are, and they have land on a beach, and they took tools, including their computers, and so, I hope to hear from them soon.  Took them about six months to pull the plan together and execute it, because their watch system told them the signs were there - it was time to go.
For them, they were right, and they got their fortune safely to their new home, anonymously.
ff
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on February 20, 2008, 09:44:18 pm
Gad zooks!

What a good story of planning, execution, and success. Thanks, ff. Best to them.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on February 21, 2008, 01:08:51 am
SA,

I'm about a thousand miles from there, and have never met any of the relatives there.....I just mentioned it because like I said.....this is my country.....I don't own it.....but I've been here all my life......and I'm not leaving....
Now I can't make choices for other people.....but in my opinion it's better to fight than to run...because if you run, chances are you'll just keep running as the slavers close in.....and if the american consumer driven economy crashes n' burns....it's going to take down the economies of half the world.....and things are going to get ugly everywhere as governments everywhere start sacking locals pockets because their welfare check ain't coming from uncle sam.....
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Jebur27 on February 23, 2008, 06:30:57 am
.....this is my country.....I don't own it.....but I've been here all my life......and I'm not leaving....
I'm with you, Zoot.  Live or die, I'm an American (but, not a United Statesian).  I may visit other places, but this is where I live. 
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: iloilo on February 23, 2008, 09:22:39 am
Gad zooks!

What a good story of planning, execution, and success. Thanks, ff. Best to them.
Yes, I now have more than a dozen friends in Panama: many moved there after extensive research, which I won't go into here.  remember, this is the small nation where, a few years ago when the politicians voted themselves a raise, then entire private workforce went of strike in protest, and the raises were immediately rescinded.  Everyone I know down there has cached gold and silver and weapons out of sight, but the weapons laws, etc are more open there.  After the fall of puppet Noriega, the country became a lot more anarchistic. 
I plan on staying put in the USA and working for liberty, but I empathize with people who have watched events and made informed decisions based on their own level of tolerance.  I also have several friends in Africa, Thailand, Switzerland, Belgium, Scotland and Greenland now.  And many, many more living on their boats.  All of these friends are very well-armed, and I feel blessed that I have a few invitations of sanctuary if I need to cut and run quickly.  Nice.
What I find highly interesting is how most of these people made the decisions, and then how they executed that decisions: the same set of "exit signals" should be operating for those still in urban/gunless sectors of this nation, and who need to move on.  I think it is time to do it.
I know I worked two full-time jobs, lived very frugally, sold all I was not planning to bring with me, saved every FRN and gold bit I could get stashed away, and it still took me three years to escape.  It isn't easy, but it can be done. 

 And I do think that holding gold, even purchasing it now, is still a very, very good idea. The gold I saved prior to my escape, most of which I still have, has increased in value about 5-fold.  Actually, of course, the dollar has fallen to about 1/5 of the value it had when I moved out here.
ff
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on February 23, 2008, 11:51:05 am
... the same set of "exit signals" should be operating for those still in urban/gunless sectors of this nation, and who need to move on.  I think it is time to do it...

Counting on a continuation of today's luxury economy is not planning for your future.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on February 23, 2008, 12:01:35 pm
And I do think that holding gold, even purchasing it now, is still a very, very good idea. The gold I saved prior to my escape, most of which I still have, has increased in value about 5-fold.  Actually, of course, the dollar has fallen to about 1/5 of the value it had when I moved out here.

Yes, buy and hold-- a savings plan for those rainy days. :-)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Apple on February 24, 2008, 03:36:13 am
ZooT,

We all have our own decisions to make. I need a place where I will be able to defend myself. I need more time. So I plot my escape. To a place where I can own guns. A place with some Land to grow my own food. A place that's not too crowded so I won't have to do battle with hordes of hungry people who never saw it coming :ph34r:
That place does not exist within these borders.
And, if nothing bad happens in the near future, I need a place where the little Strange Attractions won't be taken away from me at gunpoint for mandatory state schooling :ph34r: and where they won't make an entry in a government database each time they fart. :ph34r:

Quote
and if the american consumer driven economy crashes n' burns....it's going to take down the economies of half the world.....and things are going to get ugly everywhere as governments everywhere start sacking locals pockets because their welfare check ain't coming from uncle sam.....

Oh please. :rolleyes:  Two words: Trade Deficit.

Anyway, I can handle an economic crash, or anything else I can see coming. I have a standing invitation, but I'd have to be able to Go there. If the bird flu broke out tomorrow, I'd be in deep bird doodoo :ph34r:

Well, depending on your current situation... If you don't mind interacting with the banking system, and getting lots of suspicious activity reports filed about you by your bank, you could send money to an overseas bank and have them buy gold for you.

There are a ton of obvious disadvantages to this.  Like, the gold is not in your hands where you can see it and get to it.  But for some people it might be a useful option.

Well mr. Bill, those suspicious activity reports could be a problem when I need to nicely ask some country's permission to be allowed in. Also, saving under the radar is out of the question that way.

In the past few weeks, I have had a couple of good friends who converted everything they owned to gold, one drove her packed to the top pick up down to Panama, the other one shipped the gold to her via a secure courier service ( yes, they still exist) then he packed the other pickup and followed her down once they had the gold secure in another country.
There they are, and they have land on a beach, and they took tools, including their computers, and so, I hope to hear from them soon.  Took them about six months to pull the plan together and execute it, because their watch system told them the signs were there - it was time to go.
For them, they were right, and they got their fortune safely to their new home, anonymously.
ff

Fae,

A heartening story to read. :)  It's good to know that such things are possible, and there are still places where one can go. On the other hand, I am reminded of how some of the jews saw the writing on the wall and decided to pull up roots and get the hell out of Germany :ph34r:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on February 24, 2008, 02:49:23 pm
Quote
Anyway, I can handle an economic crash, or anything else I can see coming. I have a standing invitation, but I'd have to be able to Go there.

Well then don't wait......sell all your stuff and go.....and within a month or so this'll all just be a memory....but whether good or bad remains to be seen

Forget about this country, and forget about everyone in it.....just stop caring about this country and the people in it.......if you can....

I can't do that......and I consider it be to be both a blessing and a curse......but it's my blessing and it's my curse....and just another part of me, and to deny this blessing/curse would be to deny a part of me......

And yeah.....it's illogical.......but one doesn't live by logic alone.....through logic one survives......but one lives through emotion....

I sometimes wonder what the jews that left germany thought when they found out that their old friends and neighbors were being slaughtered........and I wonder if "never again" isn't plural..........

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Apple on February 24, 2008, 05:13:55 pm
Well then don't wait......sell all your stuff and go.....and within a month or so this'll all just be a memory....but whether good or bad remains to be seen

Well…
It's more complicated than that.

Wish I were at liberty to explain here, but it's too personal :ph34r:
Anyway, I'm working on it, and I already have an option right now for any event that doesn't immediately preclude international overland travel.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on February 25, 2008, 12:09:48 am
Quote
It's more complicated than that.

I'd certainly hope so.....hell just making such a decision is more complicated than that.....but then again......that's what this is all about isn't it?.....indecision?

Quote
Wish I were at liberty to explain here, but it's too personal

Yeah.......I know how that goes.....

It's a curse going through life feeling like an alien that doesn't fit in this world.......isn't it?
To feel like some last remnant of what being human once was, or some precursor to what being human will be...or maybe just a broken machine.......but still feeling all alone........
And yeah.......I feel it too......all the time.....



Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Apple on February 25, 2008, 02:26:12 pm
Quote
It's more complicated than that.

I'd certainly hope so.....hell just making such a decision is more complicated than that.....but then again......that's what this is all about isn't it?.....indecision?

Not really. I made the decision to leave a while ago now… I can't really call in my favor before the poop actually goes flying. Like I said, it's complicated. I'm currently in the planning stage. Anyway, looks like I won't be buying gold and converting my stuff into it. No way to take it with me.

It's a curse going through life feeling like an alien that doesn't fit in this world.......isn't it?
To feel like some last remnant of what being human once was, or some precursor to what being human will be...or maybe just a broken machine.......but still feeling all alone........
And yeah.......I feel it too......all the time.....

The torture never stops :ph34r:
Well, it's not that bad, really. I feel a lot better since I came to understand the nature of the system we're in. It's somehow reassuring to be able to see it in its full monstrosity. Before that, I never made sense, even to myself. Seemingly my subconscious "got it" long before the rest of me ever did. This caused no small amount of stress. I am not broken. The fact that state schooling never managed to completely take hold of me proves this.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on February 26, 2008, 01:09:38 am
Well I know I'm not broken either......unless I compare myself to the folks around me.....and then either they're all broken or I am....

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bennie on February 26, 2008, 03:20:16 am
A woman  from viet nam used gold thread in the clothes she wore/brought into this country. An ounce of gold can be made into thread several miles long.

In the book "Hide Your Assets and Disappear", a story is told about a fugitive in Mexico. He made a living by being a one person pawn shop. He purchased gold and silver jewelry from locals. Every 3-4 months his lady friend (wearing the jewelry) walked across the border into Arizona and sold the jewelry.

One way to carry  5oz of gold at one time would be to put it into 1/10 oz denominations. Make it into a bracelet with the rounds hanging like a charm bracelet would. Dip the bracelet into a pale egg color latex paint. It appears like some sort of cheap looking shell jewelry.

The ways to carry things in plain sight only requires a little creativity. It's like the old joke about the guy who crossed over the border on a bicycle every morning. The authorities were sure he was a smuggler. They searched him and his bike every morning certain they would eventually catch him. He was smuggling bicycles.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Apple on February 26, 2008, 03:48:30 am
Thanks for the tips Bennie.

I'm sure I could manage land crossings. It's those pesky airport metal detectors and x-ray scanners that I'm worried about.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: NuclearDruid on February 27, 2008, 08:05:26 am
Gold Hits Historic High on Surging Oil, Euro (http://www.cnbc.com/id/23360598)

Quote
"Gold seems to be reacting to the general weakness in the dollar and of course the fact that oil prices are now trading above $100 a barrel consistently," said Darren Heathcote of Investec Australia in Sydney.

"Let's just say $970 is not inconceivable. As I guess $1,000 is not inconceivable. There doesn't seem to be much reason to sell gold," he said.

ND
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Armageddon2012 on February 27, 2008, 09:03:47 am
America Over-populated ?  Yeah Right !!! America & Austraila have a lot more land per citizen than most other Countries !!!
 
  On Subject ;  Man I knew I should have Maxed all my Credit Cards 3 months ago when Gold was $ 660 an once , Then sold half of it Now !!!  The bad thing is , If I dont buy Now , Gold will go to $1250 in 6 months  !!!  :huh:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 27, 2008, 03:32:15 pm
Quote
"Let's just say $970 is not inconceivable. ...

Considering that today's high was $962.20, I'd tend to agree.  :mellow:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Claire on February 27, 2008, 03:37:57 pm
America Over-populated ?  Yeah Right !!! America & Austraila have a lot more land per citizen than most other Countries !!!

Not to go too far off topic ... but it's not just a question of how much land. It's a question of how livable, arable, graze-able, well watered, etc. that land is. The middle of Australia and the middle of the U.S. tell their own stories.

Lotta sagebrush out there. Not much water that anybody would want to drink.


Ahem, to go back on topic ... I'm amazed at how little news & discussion there's been as gold heads for $1,000 and silver aims at $20.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on February 27, 2008, 04:27:14 pm
Quote
Ahem, to go back on topic ... I'm amazed at how little news & discussion there's been as gold heads for $1,000 and silver aims at $20.

I discovered yesterday that I've got a small windfall coming in the middle of next month. I was wondering whether to buy
a little gold, or some silver, or a tiny bit of both. I was kicking ideas around with my wife about what to do with the money,
and she suggested getting some cold frames/small green house to put on the roof to do some serious vegetable gardening.

This is brilliant. This has been a blind spot in our preparedness plans. While I'd love to get more gold and silver, but we need to
prioritize this spending so our preps are more even. The work I did last Summer on the garden behind the retaining wall was a good
start, it isn't really large enough, nor does it have the best sun exposure. 

Bear

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Armageddon2012 on February 28, 2008, 08:56:05 am
Yeah , I would like to buy a little Gold & Silver too , When the Big Collapse happens they will DOUBLE in price the NEXT DAY !!! 
 
 I dont want a whole lot , Cause you cant Eat Gold or Silver , I got other things to buy right now !!!
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on February 28, 2008, 11:40:16 pm
Bear,

The means to earn more gold and silver, or avoid having to trade gold or silver for something else is always a great idea.....


Quote
When the Big Collapse happens they will DOUBLE in price the NEXT DAY !!!

Yeah.....and that ounce of gold might buy you a case of generic Mac n' cheese and a 50 hit box of .22LR......,metals most probably will double in  price......but I've got this feeling that commodities and neccessities ARE going to be money after the big collapse......at least for a while until things start to stabilize....

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: iloilo on February 29, 2008, 12:14:20 am
ZooT, I have been thinking the same thing: I bought a couple cases of good whiskeys and vodka, rum, brandy, etc, to complete the wine cellar which is already well-stocked.  Also bought more staples to have on hand.  I need to get more seeds and find out how to properly preserve them on a rotating cycle for 3-4 years.  I am researching this now.

I also got a couple gallons of honey and more rice: it seems I am becoming rather gluten-intolerant, so I will be divesting my shelves of wheat, oats and barley, except for small reserves for others.

Yes, we are seeing gold and silver go up, and that was to be expected.  What I don't think people were thinking of seeing, in many instances, is the rise in food costs.  I am buying more beans next week when I have some extra funds.  A variety of beans, and more cornmeal and masa harina as well.

I have had success rotating goods by simply dating everything with little stickers.  So far, nothing has been abandoned and not rotated.  I hope it keeps working.
ff
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: NuclearDruid on February 29, 2008, 08:54:29 am
Gold Powers to Record on Oil, Eyes $1,000 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/23399808)

Quote
Record high oil and expectations of more interest rates cuts in the United States add to inflation pressures, elevating gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation, while volatile stock markets have encouraged investors to shift some of their money into gold and other precious metals.

"The target is $1,000. I personally hope it will be $1,000 within a month," said Yukuji Sonoda, precious metals analyst at Daiichi Commodities in Tokyo, adding that gold was likely be driven by movements in oil in coming weeks.

Crude oil rallied to another record above $103 a barrel as Ecuador shut a key export pipeline and a fire hit a major European natural gas plant.

ND
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ShortyDawkins on February 29, 2008, 11:16:19 am
Silver just hit $19.78

Shorty
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on February 29, 2008, 11:17:05 am
Quote
I have had success rotating goods by simply dating everything with little stickers.

We use a black felt tip pen to write the purchase date on the ends of cans. Doesn't work so
well on boxes with a glossy surface, though.  :thinking:   We don't buy a lot of boxed stuff,
so it hasn't been a problem. If we do buy more boxed stuff, I'll use the sticker idea.

Thanks.

Bear

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on February 29, 2008, 02:29:43 pm
I like wide masking tape with black Sharpie's writing dates on it... and contents, when appropriate.  I use that in my freezer for meal-sized portions of my big-pot recipes (chili, enchaladas, meat loaf, etc.). I also use the tape and Sharpie in my reloading room.

Masking tape is cheap, comes off easy,  and is easy to use.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on February 29, 2008, 02:56:50 pm
Quote
Masking tape is cheap, comes off easy,  and is easy to use.

I would have thought that masking tape comes off in the freezer. Huh.

Bear

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on February 29, 2008, 04:28:19 pm
Gold Powers to Record on Oil, Eyes $1,000 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/23399808)

Quote
Record high oil and expectations of more interest rates cuts in the United States add to
inflation pressures, elevating gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation, while volatile stock markets
have encouraged investors to shift some of their money into gold and other precious metals.


Oil does not drive gold.

An increase in dollars (by the govt, "interest rates cuts"=more loan money creation), dillutes the
value of the dollar against all commodities, oil and gold included.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on February 29, 2008, 05:06:08 pm
Quote
Oil does not drive gold.

Maybe what's left unsaid is that high oil prices cause fear and uncertainty which increases
the demand for gold.

What you said about diluted dollars affecting the price of all commodities is true also.

Bear

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on February 29, 2008, 06:34:38 pm
Quote
Oil does not drive gold.

Maybe what's left unsaid is that high oil prices cause fear and uncertainty which increases
the demand for gold.

What you said about diluted dollars affecting the price of all commodities is true also.

Bear

Yeah, I thought of those windy trails—A effects B, B to C & D... but oh! it complicates the post.

Inflation does not raise all prices simultaneously. Both commodities change price for their own
situations regardless of inflation. And that of oil can involve that of gold. All of which makes
accurate prediction... difficult. I'm saving in gold & silver and I stock up on all my odds & ends,
like toilet paper, foods, ...

All good to keep in mind.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on February 29, 2008, 08:26:14 pm


I've seen a chart that lists conversion weights for gold jewelry, I skimmed it over one time, but haven't seen it again since.

For example a 7 gram 10k ring has "X" amount of actual gold.

14k has Y amount etc

Has anyone else seen such a chart or know where it could or can be found?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on March 01, 2008, 01:16:36 am
I would have thought that masking tape comes off in the freezer. Huh.

Masking tape holds fine in the freezer if you put it on the containers before you freeze them.  It doesn't stick to frozen containers if you try to apply it after freezing.

If you take all the commodities that are rising and make line charts out of their dollar value over time, it may appear that they are rising in cost.  Quite assuredly, market forces affect them all differently.  However the trend is clear when you take gold, silver, oil and food charts, rotate them clockwise until their dollar cost is horizontal.  They all tell you that the dollar is dropping in value while real goods remain constant.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Apple on March 01, 2008, 02:08:09 am
I've seen a chart that lists conversion weights for gold jewelry, I skimmed it over one time, but haven't seen it again since.
For example a 7 gram 10k ring has "X" amount of actual gold.
14k has Y amount etc
Has anyone else seen such a chart or know where it could or can be found?

Why do you need a chart for that? Pure gold is 24K. Everything else is a linear fraction thereof. So, a 7 gram 10K ring contains 7*10/24 = 2.92 grams of actual gold.

A child could do it. (If properly homeschooled.)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on March 01, 2008, 04:55:57 am
I've seen a chart that lists conversion weights for gold jewelry, I skimmed it over one time, but haven't seen it again since.
For example a 7 gram 10k ring has "X" amount of actual gold.
14k has Y amount etc
Has anyone else seen such a chart or know where it could or can be found?

Why do you need a chart for that? Pure gold is 24K. Everything else is a linear fraction thereof. So, a 7 gram 10K ring contains 7*10/24 = 2.92 grams of actual gold.

A child could do it. (If properly homeschooled.)

Well thanks Strange Attraction....I think.... :laugh:

I wanted the chart to put into a reference folder on a laptop that I'm assembling.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: iloilo on March 01, 2008, 08:29:16 am
I would have thought that masking tape comes off in the freezer. Huh.

Masking tape holds fine in the freezer if you put it on the containers before you freeze them.  It doesn't stick to frozen containers if you try to apply it after freezing.

If you take all the commodities that are rising and make line charts out of their dollar value over time, it may appear that they are rising in cost.  Quite assuredly, market forces affect them all differently.  However the trend is clear when you take gold, silver, oil and food charts, rotate them clockwise until their dollar cost is horizontal.  They all tell you that the dollar is dropping in value while real goods remain constant.

I use masking tape and sharpie for making most labels, including for those freezer items, as well as for taping shut and marking game packages.  I roll out long strips, write on the tape, then cut the sections of tape to apply.  That makes nice-looking labels, which is very good if I am going to trade any of these packages for other stuff.  I also bought a whole bunch of those freezer containers for soups and stews and such, since I make big batches, and those also get masking tape labels prior to freezing.  Sometimes, however, I freeze the liquids in the containers, then "decant" the frozen contents into large freezer bags which hold four frozen servings, and reuse the containers to freeze more stuff.  When I do the bad thing, I put the masking tape labels on prior to adding the contents.  I also use masking tape on the vacuum-sealer bags, which I use mostly for items such as spices, always in smaller zip bags within the larger vacuum bag.

 The little labels I got at an office supply close-out sale for ten cents per package, so I smiled and laid down my 80 cents and walked away with enough stickers for the food rotation plan for a long time.  And they are small and all match, which appeals to my totally organized sense of things. What can I say? The wine in the wine cellar has other shaped labels, from the same sale, and those tell me when the bottle will be ready to drink.

I don't drink much hard stuff, but just bought a lot: should whiskey be labeled with a "bought date"  ~ does it age after it has been bottled and is no longer in the casks?

And to bring this post back to topic, I have also found that a good way to hide metals in small quantities is to wrap a coin or three in bubble wrap making a cerrtain-shaped package, wrap that in freezer wrap, stick on a "ground elk 2007" label that matches the other "ground elk 2007" labels and stick it in the freezer.  I can find it because I put a small dot under the writing, or else spell "ground" as "gruond".  Because I am often away for months at a time, this has proven a super way to hide stuff.  Okay, so I only have had the opportunity to make one package, once.  But I still think it is a good idea. 
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Apple on March 01, 2008, 08:44:15 am
Well thanks Strange Attraction....I think.... :laugh:
I wanted the chart to put into a reference folder on a laptop that I'm assembling.

You're welcome padre.
You could put it in a spreadsheet and tune it to your needs :)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on March 01, 2008, 06:24:56 pm
Well thanks Strange Attraction....I think.... :laugh:
I wanted the chart to put into a reference folder on a laptop that I'm assembling.

You're welcome padre.
You could put it in a spreadsheet and tune it to your needs :)

The conversion formula is one of those odd things that I think would be handy to have available, like the chemical procedure to extract gold dust from black sand, just one of those odd things that come up.

Like the chart that plots how much daylight (sunrise and sunset) will be available on any given day.

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: NeoW0rm on March 02, 2008, 01:45:56 pm
I'd like some advise.

Would it make sense to buy gold now? I know it's high, but... I'm having a feeling we are not far from major economic crash
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on March 02, 2008, 03:36:46 pm
I'd like some advise.

Would it make sense to buy gold now? I know it's high, but... I'm having a feeling we are not far from major economic crash

Hi there, NeoW0rm, welcome here.

Buying gold is like saving money-- the standard FRNs. If you are saving FRNs, I would say
that it is prudent to save a big chunk of that in gold or silver. Inflation taxes your FRN savings
every year, now at about 12-15% or more. It costs less than 1% to move FRNs into and out
of metal. If the economy goes into crash mode and inflation goes to 100% per month or more
(see the high inflation counties as Zimbabwe at ~1,000% per day), you will conserve the value
of your savings. But don't forget stocking up on necessities (toilet paper, food, and such).

And read around here...lots of talk, plans, and advice to be found.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on March 02, 2008, 09:21:15 pm
FSK Reality Guide (http://fskrealityguide.blogspot.com):

The Gold and Silver Taxation Scam (http://fskrealityguide.blogspot.com/2007/12/gold-and-silver-taxation-scam.html)

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: NuclearDruid on March 03, 2008, 09:01:57 am
Gold Powers to All-Time High as US Dollar Falls (http://www.cnbc.com/id/23439845)

Quote
Spot gold powered to a record high in Asia on Monday as a fall in the dollar to a historic low against a basket of major currencies and the strength of oil prices prompted fund buying.

Gold jumped to a record high of $979.20 an ounce in electronic trading in Asia, surpassing the previous record of $975.90 reached on Friday.

ND
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: NuclearDruid on March 04, 2008, 10:54:28 am
Gold Trending To Hit $1200 in 2008 (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=3896)

Quote
As always best to focus on the medium to long term and the continuing strong fundamentals with uncertainty in equity and property markets, oil at over $100 a barrel, the dollar under continuing pressure and the credit crunch deepening. These will likely result in any correction in gold being of a short duration prior to challenging the inflation adjusted high of some $2,400 per ounce in the coming years.

ND
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Sphairon on March 04, 2008, 11:55:48 am
Quote
These will likely result in any correction in gold being of a short duration prior to challenging the inflation adjusted high of some $2,400 per ounce in the coming years.

Basically depends on how long people will still put their trust into paper currencies I'd say. As gold moves up, it just shows appreciation of that commodity as a storage of wealth or for any other purpose has grown.

And the more paper is being pumped out, the more people will resort to 'hard money' to avoid a loss of wealth. Buying gold at the moment is, from my perspective, actually a win-win situation.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on June 16, 2008, 10:58:18 am
Various items on...gold.


gold-eagle.com (http://www.gold-eagle.com):

Antal E. Fekete (http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/feketendx.html?page=1)

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: NuclearDruid on June 17, 2008, 08:27:04 am
The Bilderbergers: Paper Money & Paper Tigers (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1213682580.php)

Quote
The two-sided coin of credit and debt was substituted for gold and silver in an arrangement that served bankers and government, not producers and savers; and, much to the chagrin of the Bilderbergers and their bankers, the rest of the world, sic producers and savers, are now beginning to catch on to this increasingly obvious truth.

The recent rapid rise in the price of oil is a reflection of the intention of oil producers to no longer automatically trade their limited supply of oil for an unlimited and continually devaluing supply of paper money. 

The current volatility in the price of gold and silver is a reflection of the death throes of the Bilderberger’s regime of paper money. No paper money system has ever lasted, all have ended in failure and disaster and this present system will end the same way—no matter what efforts are exerted on the behalf of paper money.

ND
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on June 17, 2008, 08:00:54 pm
The Bilderbergers: Paper Money & Paper Tigers (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1213682580.php)

ND

Nice essay. Bucky is fuller than ever. Thanks, ND.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on June 17, 2008, 10:35:35 pm
Quote
I'd like some advise.

Would it make sense to buy gold now? I know it's high, but... I'm having a feeling we are not far from major economic crash

If you're inclined to day trade, forget it. If you can think of it as long term savings, then go for it.

A suggestion: rather than focusing how much it takes to buy one ounce, think about converting what you have into metal.
I have a friend who focuses too much on the price of an ounce, rather than thinking about preserving what he has, and
as consequence never has bought any metal. He's completely missed out on the run up to this price.

I suspect that the price will continue to climb again as the dollar craters further, but I can't tell you when it will start. I'm just
confident that it will happen, because the Federal Reserve and Congress have painted themselves into a corner and they lack
the courage to break the news to the public.

We're also likely to see high inflation and price controls, which will lead to shortages. So... plan your metal purchases in
context with the other things you need.

Bear



Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on June 22, 2008, 10:07:32 pm
End the War on Freedom (http://www.billstclair.com/blog) (Bill St. Clair):

PricedInGold.com (http://www.billstclair.com/blog/pricedingold_com.html)


I say keep your cash in gold and avoid losing a big % each year to Fed's inflation.



"Th-th-th-th- that's all folks! (http://www.billstclair.com/blog/zero_dollar_bill.html)"
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on June 28, 2008, 06:12:54 pm
"A silver quarter will ALWAYS buy a loaf of bread."

How do you locate the bread if no one has any to sell?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Dare2BFree on June 30, 2008, 08:44:54 am
Quote
How do you locate the bread if no one has any to sell?

Rely on yourself and learn to make your own.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: iloilo on June 30, 2008, 09:08:02 am
"A silver quarter will ALWAYS buy a loaf of bread."

How do you locate the bread if no one has any to sell?

Here in the backwoods of Montana, we have an excellent barter network.  I cannot imaging not being able to find most things I need from someone who wants something I have to barter.
Selling or buying is the last thing we consider.    :laugh: :ph34r: :laugh:
ff
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on June 30, 2008, 10:23:15 am
Quote
"A silver quarter will ALWAYS buy a loaf of bread."

That's an assumption besed on a  perception of relative values......
I think the quarter will buy the bread.....and thus everyone else should too

The reason "why" folks say such things, has nothing to do with logic......but instead is in the realm of faith.....they want to "believe" that that silver quarter will always buy that loaf of bread........because ONLY if that quarter will buy the loaf, does the quarter have any value over and above the metal in the quarter....in this case the value of the loaf......but even that is subject to change......

FF mentions barter......and that's probably the "truest" means of exchange.......bearing no preproposed or preassumed perceptions of relative value except among those actually engaged in barter........because anything is only worth  what the buyer and the seller agree that it's worth.....
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on August 05, 2008, 03:30:39 pm
(prices in FRNs:-)

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blumert/burt-gold.html

Au - 874.55 down 19.60
Ag - 16.44 down 0.60


http://www.kitco.com - see charts

Au: yr begin - ~850, high - ~1010 (Mar),  recent - ~900

Ag: yr begin - ~15, high - ~21 (Mar),  recent - ~17
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on August 05, 2008, 03:50:40 pm
(prices in FRNs:-)

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blumert/burt-gold.html

Au - 874.55 down 19.60
Ag - 16.44 down 0.60


http://www.kitco.com - see charts

Au: yr begin - ~850, high - ~1010 (Mar),  recent - ~900

Ag: yr begin - ~15, high - ~21 (Mar),  recent - ~17

Right now Gold is cratering Junker, I had looked at buying some more but not at the moment.

Silver is dropping as well..

Maybe time to sit and wait?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on August 05, 2008, 09:39:35 pm
(prices in FRNs:-)

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blumert/burt-gold.html

Au - 874.55 down 19.60
Ag - 16.44 down 0.60


http://www.kitco.com - see charts

Au: yr begin - ~850, high - ~1010 (Mar),  recent - ~900

Ag: yr begin - ~15, high - ~21 (Mar),  recent - ~17

Right now Gold is cratering Junker, I had looked at buying some more but not at the moment.

Silver is dropping as well..

Maybe time to sit and wait?

"Come-Padre".

With all due respect, it is the very reasons you cite that make it a time to buy...

And if AU goes lower? But more and consider the opportunity to be a blessing... For most in disguise..

The Krug is the best gold value. Period. Like the looks of others but if you are buying OZ's, buy Krugs.

Silver, one quarter is 25% of a Constitutional dollar which is ±.72 ounce/34X±$16/OZ/4=$2.88. Just about a loaf, a good one but not a great one. Look for higher AG and higher food over the next year.

I like silver, so does the market, I think....

BR/DS


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on August 05, 2008, 09:42:44 pm
(prices in FRNs:-)

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blumert/burt-gold.html

Au - 874.55 down 19.60
Ag - 16.44 down 0.60


http://www.kitco.com - see charts

Au: yr begin - ~850, high - ~1010 (Mar),  recent - ~900

Ag: yr begin - ~15, high - ~21 (Mar),  recent - ~17

Right now Gold is cratering Junker, I had looked at buying some more but not at the moment.

Silver is dropping as well..

Maybe time to sit and wait?

"Come-Padre".

With all due respect, it is the very reasons you cite that make it a time to buy...

And if AU goes lower? But more and consider the opportunity to be a blessing... For most in disguise..

The Krug is the best gold value. Period. Like the looks of others but if you are buying OZ's, buy Krugs.

Silver, one quarter is 25% of a Constitutional dollar which is ±.72 ounce/34X±$16/OZ/4=$2.88. Just about a loaf, a good one but not a great one. Look for higher AG and higher food over the next year.

I like silver, so does the market, I think....

BR/DS




What makes any bullion coin better than serial numbered bullion bars?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on August 05, 2008, 10:01:46 pm
If the bars are "deliverable on the COMEX", they are superior to a coin, in theory. Why "Theory"? Depends on the transaction. for instance, it may very well be that a Franklin half is superior to a bar OZ of AG because of it's weight and purity. It is worth about $6 today. As such it is more transactable than a 100OZ bar worth about $1,650 today.

Is the AG holding strategic or tactical? If strategic, buy $1000 face value coins. If tactical, buy 10OZ bars.

Myself, I like coins, 10oz and 100oz ag and Krugs.

Value driven...

BR/DS


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on August 05, 2008, 11:08:18 pm
(prices in FRNs:-)

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blumert/burt-gold.html

Au - 874.55 down 19.60
Ag - 16.44 down 0.60


http://www.kitco.com - see charts

Au: yr begin - ~850, high - ~1010 (Mar),  recent - ~900

Ag: yr begin - ~15, high - ~21 (Mar),  recent - ~17

Right now Gold is cratering Junker, I had looked at buying some more but not at the moment.

Silver is dropping as well..

Maybe time to sit and wait?

"Come-Padre".

With all due respect, it is the very reasons you cite that make it a time to buy...

And if AU goes lower? But more and consider the opportunity to be a blessing... For most in disguise..

The Krug is the best gold value. Period. Like the looks of others but if you are buying OZ's, buy Krugs.

Silver, one quarter is 25% of a Constitutional dollar which is ±.72 ounce/34X±$16/OZ/4=$2.88. Just about a loaf, a good one but not a great one. Look for higher AG and higher food over the next year.

I like silver, so does the market, I think....

BR/DS




In a cratering market? Not yet, not for some time.

One of the axioms of the last run up in Metals was that "gold is not coupled with oil" and that has proven to be not quite the case, of course I could be wrong on that, but it does appear that the steep decline in the price of oil has also taken gold down with it.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: khagler on August 07, 2008, 03:34:27 pm
What makes any bullion coin better than serial numbered bullion bars?

The fact that they can be bought one at a time by those of us who are not multimillionaires.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Apple on August 07, 2008, 04:10:39 pm
In a cratering market? Not yet, not for some time.

"Never grab a falling blade."
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on August 07, 2008, 05:11:20 pm
Quote
What makes any bullion coin better than serial numbered bullion bars?

Each has it's advantages.

The coin is easily recognizable and anonymous.

The serial numbered bars (some as small as 1 oz), have better theft
protection, in that the individual bars can be reported stolen and if
they ever show up somewhere, a trail back might be traced.

I just realized that I assumed we're talking about gold. Silver bars aren't
serialized until they get really big. Typically Comex Acceptable (1000+ oz?).

Bear

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on August 07, 2008, 05:48:11 pm
Quote
What makes any bullion coin better than serial numbered bullion bars?

Each has it's advantages.

The coin is easily recognizable and anonymous.

The serial numbered bars (some as small as 1 oz), have better theft
protection, in that the individual bars can be reported stolen and if
they ever show up somewhere, a trail back might be traced.

I just realized that I assumed we're talking about gold. Silver bars aren't
serialized until they get really big. Typically Comex Acceptable (1000+ oz?).

Bear



The 100 ounce silver bars I bought must be counterfeit.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on August 07, 2008, 06:10:00 pm
Quote
What makes any bullion coin better than serial numbered bullion bars?

Each has it's advantages.

The coin is easily recognizable and anonymous.

The serial numbered bars (some as small as 1 oz), have better theft
protection, in that the individual bars can be reported stolen and if
they ever show up somewhere, a trail back might be traced.

I just realized that I assumed we're talking about gold. Silver bars aren't
serialized until they get really big. Typically Comex Acceptable (1000+ oz?).

Bear



The 100 ounce silver bars I bought must be counterfeit.



Many 100 OZ bars are numbered including JM, Engelhard, Sunshine, Wall street and Pan American. I am uncertain if "all" 100's are numbered but many are. My guess is that most now are.

BR/DS


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on August 07, 2008, 06:11:17 pm
Quote
What makes any bullion coin better than serial numbered bullion bars?

Each has it's advantages.

The coin is easily recognizable and anonymous.

The serial numbered bars (some as small as 1 oz), have better theft
protection, in that the individual bars can be reported stolen and if
they ever show up somewhere, a trail back might be traced.

I just realized that I assumed we're talking about gold. Silver bars aren't
serialized until they get really big. Typically Comex Acceptable (1000+ oz?).

Bear



The 100 ounce silver bars I bought must be counterfeit.



Many 100 OZ bars are numbered including JM, Engelhard, Sunshine, Wall street and Pan American. I am uncertain if "all" 100's are numbered but many are. My guess is that most now are.

BR/DS




They're great for making the safe impossible to pick up:-)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Tahn L. on August 11, 2008, 02:00:39 pm
Monday, August 11, 08.    2:00 PM     

Gold is currently trading around $825. and Silver is $14.72. It hit a low today (so far) of around $819.  Gold was around $856. on Friday.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on August 11, 2008, 08:43:41 pm


gold is at 808.00 now, it appears to be heading below 800 dollars.

silver is down to 14.36 or so..

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on August 12, 2008, 11:04:56 am
Gold is still twice to three times what I paid for it.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on August 12, 2008, 12:42:01 pm
I hope (there's that 4 lettered word again) that it goes to 752 and shakes out the clingers.

An interesting interview:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/GoldReport/aug082008.html

DS
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on August 12, 2008, 03:25:14 pm
Gold is still twice to three times what I paid for it.

As is my Silver, if Silver drops to the 10.00 mark, I'll start buying again I think.

Silver's old floor of 5.00 or so makes 10.00 the target (IMO) if it drops below ten, then I've lost some purchasing power, not a whole lot though.

Hmm...what if I sold some Silver now in anticipation of it flooring at 5.00, that way I'd be able to buy triple the amount of silver I currently hold? (triple more or less)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on August 12, 2008, 06:47:36 pm
Gold is still twice to three times what I paid for it.

As is my Silver, if Silver drops to the 10.00 mark, I'll start buying again I think.

Silver's old floor of 5.00 or so makes 10.00 the target (IMO) if it drops below ten, then I've lost some purchasing power, not a whole lot though.

Hmm...what if I sold some Silver now in anticipation of it flooring at 5.00, that way I'd be able to buy triple the amount of silver I currently hold? (triple more or less)

Unless you are a direct, you'll probably lose any gain to premiums in the current bucking horse market.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on August 13, 2008, 01:53:19 pm
North on the Precious Metal price movement.

LRC (http://www.lewrockwell.com):
Why Have Gold and Silver Fallen? (http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north646.html) by Gary North

[added in:]
Some people speak of the intrinsic value of gold. Whenever you hear anyone say
this, you can know for sure that you are dealing with someone who knows nothing
about economic theory. There is no such thing as intrinsic value. There is only
imputed value. There can be historic value, but this historic value is based on
long periods of time in which people have imputed value to a particular good or
service. There is no intrinsic value, meaning a fixed market price, for any commodity.
Commodities are valuable only in so far as the output of commodities is valuable. This
was a fundamental insight of the founder of Austrian School economics, Carl Menger.
[/list]
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on August 13, 2008, 03:33:51 pm
http://www.kitco.com/ind/GoldReport/aug082008.html


Or 5,000 years.

Fun interview.

"We all love gold."®
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on August 13, 2008, 03:52:11 pm
North on the Precious Metal price movement.

LRC (http://www.lewrockwell.com):
Why Have Gold and Silver Fallen? (http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north646.html) by Gary North

    On August 11, the price of gold collapsed: down over $35. So did the price of
    silver, platinum, and palladium. A lot of people are asking why.
    ...

[added in:]


Some people speak of the intrinsic value of gold. Whenever you hear anyone say
this, you can know for sure that you are dealing with someone who knows nothing
about economic theory. There is no such thing as intrinsic value. There is only
imputed value. There can be historic value, but this historic value is based on
long periods of time in which people have imputed value to a particular good or
service. There is no intrinsic value, meaning a fixed market price, for any commodity.
Commodities are valuable only in so far as the output of commodities is valuable. This
was a fundamental insight of the founder of Austrian School economics, Carl Menger.
[/list]

Junker:

An old and favorite subject for me.

Intrinsic versus imputed.

"There is no such thing as intrinsic value. There is only imputed value."

Does water have intrinsic value or imputed value? If without it you would die is it not accurate to say it has intrinsic, or "natural value".

I believe that Menger and North have overlooked a relevant point. In a sense, were there not intrinsic value, how would we have established relative use or value?

I suggest that silver and gold have "natural value" as evidenced by an extensive and diverse array of societies discovering independently those intrinsic values in the form of "desirable physical" and some say "spiritual" characteristics. These inherent characteristics, durability, fungibility, divisibility, ductility as well as beauty in the form of reflectivity uniquely established these metals as the preferred human currency. Were it not for this universality of preference, Menger's argument would carry the weight it has been given by the Austrians. But with the existence of the overwhelming universal "original" preference, the relative value of gold and silver over other alternatives is "inherent" in their natural, or "intrinsic", characteristics. While the value of the metals in a relative sense is imputed, the elements themselves stand independent of the imputed values as possessing natural or intrinsic value that ultimately were chosen as the preferred currency for monetary use.

Just my own opinion...

BR/DS
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on August 13, 2008, 05:28:39 pm


The Stock Market will crash "if" Obama wins and Pelosi and Reid win strong majorities, the capital gains tax will go back to 28% or higher, and investors will sell to avoid the soaking.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on August 13, 2008, 05:39:19 pm


The Stock Market will crash "if" Obama wins and Pelosi and Reid win strong majorities, the capital gains tax will go back to 28% or higher, and investors will sell to avoid the soaking.

Is that a forecast, and is it yours?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on August 13, 2008, 07:41:10 pm


The Stock Market will crash "if" Obama wins and Pelosi and Reid win strong majorities, the capital gains tax will go back to 28% or higher, and investors will sell to avoid the soaking.

Is that a forecast, and is it yours?

That is straight up my own opinion, based on the disasterous 1989 "luxury tax" fiasco that drove boat makers and small aircraft makers bankrupt, wealthy people do not like being singled out for higher taxes and take real steps to avoid them.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on August 13, 2008, 08:01:44 pm


The Stock Market will crash "if" Obama wins and Pelosi and Reid win strong majorities, the capital gains tax will go back to 28% or higher, and investors will sell to avoid the soaking.

Is that a forecast, and is it yours?

That is straight up my own opinion, based on the disasterous 1989 "luxury tax" fiasco that drove boat makers and small aircraft makers bankrupt, wealthy people do not like being singled out for higher taxes and take real steps to avoid them.

Do you have a statistical reason to believe that a rich democrat would be harder on his fellow rich than a rich republican?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on August 13, 2008, 09:59:45 pm
An old and favorite subject for me.

Intrinsic versus imputed.

"There is no such thing as intrinsic value. There is only imputed value."

Does water have intrinsic value or imputed value? If without it you would die is it not accurate to say it has intrinsic, or "natural value".

I believe that Menger and North have overlooked a relevant point. In a sense, were there not intrinsic value, how would we have established relative use or value?

I suggest that silver and gold have "natural value" as evidenced by an extensive and diverse array of societies discovering independently those intrinsic values in the form of "desirable physical" and some say "spiritual" characteristics. These inherent characteristics, durability, fungibility, divisibility, ductility as well as beauty in the form of reflectivity uniquely established these metals as the preferred human currency. Were it not for this universality of preference, Menger's argument would [not] carry the weight it has been given by the Austrians. But with the existence of the overwhelming universal "original" preference, the relative value of gold and silver over other alternatives is "inherent" in their natural, or "intrinsic", characteristics. While the value of the metals in a relative sense is imputed, the elements themselves stand independent of the imputed values as possessing natural or intrinsic value that ultimately were chosen as the preferred currency for monetary use.

It seems to me that the word use here is key. For me "value" is there iff a valuer imputes it there. The "it" of value is a not a physical object, rather a set of relationships between objects, one of which must be the (here human, physical) valuer. That seems contained in the public meaning/usage of the word "value". But that does not exclude other uses including the one you've explained. There is a market for words and word usages, perhaps even a free market.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on August 13, 2008, 10:32:02 pm
An old and favorite subject for me.

Intrinsic versus imputed.

"There is no such thing as intrinsic value. There is only imputed value."

Does water have intrinsic value or imputed value? If without it you would die is it not accurate to say it has intrinsic, or "natural value".

I believe that Menger and North have overlooked a relevant point. In a sense, were there not intrinsic value, how would we have established relative use or value?

I suggest that silver and gold have "natural value" as evidenced by an extensive and diverse array of societies discovering independently those intrinsic values in the form of "desirable physical" and some say "spiritual" characteristics. These inherent characteristics, durability, fungibility, divisibility, ductility as well as beauty in the form of reflectivity uniquely established these metals as the preferred human currency. Were it not for this universality of preference, Menger's argument would [not] carry the weight it has been given by the Austrians. But with the existence of the overwhelming universal "original" preference, the relative value of gold and silver over other alternatives is "inherent" in their natural, or "intrinsic", characteristics. While the value of the metals in a relative sense is imputed, the elements themselves stand independent of the imputed values as possessing natural or intrinsic value that ultimately were chosen as the preferred currency for monetary use.

It seems to me that the word use here is key. For me "value" is there iff a valuer imputes it there. The "it" of value is a not a physical object, rather a set of relationships between objects, one of which must be the (here human, physical) valuer. That seems contained in the public meaning/usage of the word "value". But that does not exclude other uses including the one you've explained. There is a market for words and word usages, perhaps even a free market.

Junker:

I honestly am uncertain if I understand the point you seek to make. I believe the essence is in the statement "The "it" of value is a not a physical object, rather a set of relationships between objects, one of which must be the (here human, physical) valuer."

Perhaps, lets analyze the words of the sentence you profer.

The definition of "it" is one of physicality, at least in most accepted meanings. I used the word once in my description of "inherent" value. In that context I used "it" to represent a concept or abstract idea understood or previously stated, that being what I characterized as the "universality of preference".

If the value is imputed, meaning to attribute or ascribe, then the "values" would only exist through the act of attribution by the "valuer". This is clearly not the case in the attributes I described above, they are natural and inherent in the elements, au & ag. I strongly believe that these attributes or values, having been universally recognized, by all peoples known to me having access to these minerals, makes them inherent, at least in this physical world.

Is sunlight, a radiological emanation from our sun, an inherent value of the sun or only so because we attribute value to "it"? If it is not a value then what value is there to life as we know "it"?

BR/DS




Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Tahn L. on August 15, 2008, 11:18:11 am
Friday 8-15-08  11:17 AM CST   Spot gold is now $786.00   and Silver is $13.04
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on August 15, 2008, 11:44:22 am
Friday 8-15-08  11:17 AM CST   Spot gold is now $786.00   and Silver is $13.04

Apmex out of Krugs and 100 ox ag

Hommel say:

"Silver prices are dropping like a rock, down to $12.50/oz., and yet, none of my trusted, major, regular dealers have any silver to sell.

Tulving is sold out of all forms of silver.  I've never seen that before.  See http://tulving.com/goldbull.html#silver

My guy in Rocklin is out.  Amark is out.  Mish in Menlo Park is out.  Klaus in Denver is out.  All those guys cannot find silver to buy from any other major dealer, and they are all very well connected in the industry.

APMEX.com is sold out of most forms of silver, but still has some Silver Maples left, I just ordered some this evening: 
http://www.apmex.com/Category/2/2008__Prior_Canadian_Silver_Maple_Leafs.aspx

CNI is out of 100 oz. bars and Eagles, but has other forms of silver.
http://www.golddealer.com/bullionpage.html"

Lots of action. Heading towards backwardation???
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on August 15, 2008, 12:07:11 pm
Hollywoodgold,

How can everyone be sold out and the price remains so low?

Can this be explained by manipulation of the futures market?

Bear

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Rob25 on August 15, 2008, 12:09:59 pm
funny I was noticing last night that the selection of silver was suprizingly limited..
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on August 15, 2008, 12:30:33 pm
Hollywoodgold,

How can everyone be sold out and the price remains so low?

Can this be explained by manipulation of the futures market?

Bear



Bear:

I am an investor and only an expert in my own house...

Having said that, I believe what we are seeing is short selling, naked shorts in the bullion markets. If I were a gambler, I'd say it was the BOJ and Goldman "Sacks" cut-outs.

A quote from Gene Arensburg's las article on Aug. 11 reads:

"Well, we’ve all heard the adage “buy when there is blood in the streets.”  How about another one, “buy when you are ready to puke!”  Friends, there IS blood in the streets in the small resource sector right now, in August of 2008.  Buckets, gallons, and oceans of blood in the streets of Toronto and New York.  "

Here is the link:

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=45229

I bought ngd, hl, nxg this morning right after I puked.

BR/DS

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on August 15, 2008, 04:53:51 pm
(prices in FRNs:-)

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blumert/burt-gold.html

Au - 874.55 down 19.60
Ag - 16.44 down 0.60


http://www.kitco.com - see charts

Au: yr begin - ~850, high - ~1010 (Mar),  recent - ~900

Ag: yr begin - ~15, high - ~21 (Mar),  recent - ~17

Right now Gold is cratering Junker, I had looked at buying some more but not at the moment.

Silver is dropping as well..

Maybe time to sit and wait?

"Come-Padre".

With all due respect, it is the very reasons you cite that make it a time to buy...

And if AU goes lower? But more and consider the opportunity to be a blessing... For most in disguise..

The Krug is the best gold value. Period. Like the looks of others but if you are buying OZ's, buy Krugs.

Silver, one quarter is 25% of a Constitutional dollar which is ±.72 ounce/34X±$16/OZ/4=$2.88. Just about a loaf, a good one but not a great one. Look for higher AG and higher food over the next year.

I like silver, so does the market, I think....

BR/DS




I always liked the silver maple leafs Hollywood, when they hit ten bucks, then I'll buy some of them.

Why are the Krugs "better"? As I recall, the maple leafs are .999 fine and there was a slew of counterfeit Krugs made in the 80's when they were banned for importation?

My WAG, Gold is going to floor at 700, then slide lower, the current environment is very much like 1981 the post Commodities phase.

Once again my WAG, but silver is going to hover between 7.00-10.00, Dr. North mentioned that the FED has turned off the money spigot, tightening will occur and commodities will deflate in price, especially as the rest of the world catches the US's economic cold.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on August 15, 2008, 06:36:58 pm
I am a newbie at PM investing, but I read an article last night that said the price of gold,silver,platinum, and palladium is falling because they are commodities, and commodities always fall during a recession. The article said that the price of commodities would probably stay low for one to two years. The reason I am watching the price of gold and silver is that I am going to convert my 401K to a self-directed IRA and invest the money I have in it in gold and silver. But at this time, I am just watching, not buying until the price quits falling, or starts to rise again. I'll look for the article again and post a link. Boy am I glad  I didn't buy last week. However, when it reaches a price level where I feel comfortable owning it at that price, I will buy and not worry if it goes lower, as I believe that the trend after the recession will be upward, and long term.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Mr. Dare on August 15, 2008, 07:30:05 pm
I suspect the folks who are "out" may suddenly find their reserves if the price goes back up... Buy low, sell high and all that jazz. If the price stays low for a few months we may see some supplies become available again. If I was a savvy seller, I would be holding any stocks I bought at a higher price until I was able to find replacements at the new lower prices. I would also be loath to sell until I was sure this wasn't a transient dip in prices lasting only a few weeks.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on August 15, 2008, 10:55:27 pm
The Krug is the best gold value. Period. Like the looks of others but if you are buying OZ's, buy Krugs.

Why are the Krugs "better"? As I recall, the maple leafs are .999 fine and there was a slew of counterfeit Krugs made in the 80's when they were banned for importation?

My WAG, Gold is going to floor at 700, then slide lower, the current environment is very much like 1981 the post Commodities phase.

Once again my WAG, but silver is going to hover between 7.00-10.00, Dr. North mentioned that the FED has turned off the money spigot, tightening will occur and commodities will deflate in price, especially as the rest of the world catches the US's economic cold.

Not Hg's response, but generally Krugs have the lowest %age mark-up. If you're investing, that's good, or even best.

On your WAGs, I'll buy at 700/7-10, happily  :thrbiggrin:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on August 15, 2008, 11:45:42 pm
(prices in FRNs:-)

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blumert/burt-gold.html

Au - 874.55 down 19.60
Ag - 16.44 down 0.60


http://www.kitco.com - see charts

Au: yr begin - ~850, high - ~1010 (Mar),  recent - ~900

Ag: yr begin - ~15, high - ~21 (Mar),  recent - ~17

Right now Gold is cratering Junker, I had looked at buying some more but not at the moment.

Silver is dropping as well..

Maybe time to sit and wait?

"Come-Padre".

With all due respect, it is the very reasons you cite that make it a time to buy...

And if AU goes lower? But more and consider the opportunity to be a blessing... For most in disguise..

The Krug is the best gold value. Period. Like the looks of others but if you are buying OZ's, buy Krugs.

Silver, one quarter is 25% of a Constitutional dollar which is ±.72 ounce/34X±$16/OZ/4=$2.88. Just about a loaf, a good one but not a great one. Look for higher AG and higher food over the next year.

I like silver, so does the market, I think....

BR/DS




I always liked the silver maple leafs Hollywood, when they hit ten bucks, then I'll buy some of them.

Why are the Krugs "better"? As I recall, the maple leafs are .999 fine and there was a slew of counterfeit Krugs made in the 80's when they were banned for importation?

My WAG, Gold is going to floor at 700, then slide lower, the current environment is very much like 1981 the post Commodities phase.

Once again my WAG, but silver is going to hover between 7.00-10.00, Dr. North mentioned that the FED has turned off the money spigot, tightening will occur and commodities will deflate in price, especially as the rest of the world catches the US's economic cold.

Padre:

Some of what you say is true. There were Krug counterfeits in the 80's but the most counterfeited coins are the British King and Queen Sovereigns. There are many more counterfeit FRN's than gold coins, that printing press again...

My preference for Krugs is based on the lowest cost of the metal in a coin and they are the most recognized gold coin in the world. The Maples are very attractive but carry a premium and are "soft", meaning easy to scar and harder to sell.

Regarding silver and gold as "commodities", true to an extent. However, both have functioned as money for over 5000 years. It is only the treason of Wilson, FDR and Nixon that has virtually exterminated the knowledge of our Founders' warnings regarding paper money. While AU&AG behave similar to commodities in the early stage(s) of a bull market, they de-couple and re-assue their role as real money as the commodities bull matures.

If AU&AG had reached the pinnacle of the bull market in PM's, you would have seen magazine covers and newspaper front pages pronouncing the virtues of owning AU&AG. But no such thing has occurred. The airwaves are absent their importance in trade and commerce. There have been some remote discussions, Mexico proposing a silver peso, Malaysia and Dubai a Gold Dinar, but essentially, main street hasn't a clue.

Regarding your sources' predictions, who really knows? We act on our beliefs and understandings of circumstances and trends.

My own differ from the venerable Gary North. I believe it is likely that silver put in its low today or yesterday. My charting had 12.40 as the low. Gold, $700 would be a gift, at least for me. I believe that the low, if it reaches it, will be about $740 which was my prediction 9 months ago. I abandoned this "belief" on the last leg up thinking the low had been put in. A head fake. So, if it hits $740, I will smile and buy.

I suppose the question you might ask yourself is do you prefer the "full faith and credit (sic) of the US Government" or a currency that has ±5000 years of reliable history across virtually every continent and culture in which to store your savings?

With regard to the FRB money spigot, the answer to that question lies in the meaning of the word "spigot", the ownership in the FRB and the inexorable demand of politicians for bread and circuses.

Converting FRN's into food, lead, band-aids and gold/silver are my preferred preparatory steps for the future.

Just my way...

BR/DS



Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on August 16, 2008, 12:20:44 am

Quote
Padre:

Some of what you say is true. There were Krug counterfeits in the 80's but the most counterfeited coins are the British King and Queen Sovereigns. There are many more counterfeit FRN's than gold coins, that printing press again...

My preference for Krugs is based on the lowest cost of the metal in a coin and they are the most recognized gold coin in the world. The Maples are very attractive but carry a premium and are "soft", meaning easy to scar and harder to sell.

Regarding silver and gold as "commodities", true to an extent. However, both have functioned as money for over 5000 years. It is only the treason of Wilson, FDR and Nixon that has virtually exterminated the knowledge of our Founders' warnings regarding paper money. While AU&AG behave similar to commodities in the early stage(s) of a bull market, they de-couple and re-assue their role as real money as the commodities bull matures.

If AU&AG had reached the pinnacle of the bull market in PM's, you would have seen magazine covers and newspaper front pages pronouncing the virtues of owning AU&AG. But no such thing has occurred. The airwaves are absent their importance in trade and commerce. There have been some remote discussions, Mexico proposing a silver peso, Malaysia and Dubai a Gold Dinar, but essentially, main street hasn't a clue.

Regarding your sources' predictions, who really knows? We act on our beliefs and understandings of circumstances and trends.

My own differ from the venerable Gary North. I believe it is likely that silver put in its low today or yesterday. My charting had 12.40 as the low. Gold, $700 would be a gift, at least for me. I believe that the low, if it reaches it, will be about $740 which was my prediction 9 months ago. I abandoned this "belief" on the last leg up thinking the low had been put in. A head fake. So, if it hits $740, I will smile and buy.

I suppose the question you might ask yourself is do you prefer the "full faith and credit (sic) of the US Government" or a currency that has ±5000 years of reliable history across virtually every continent and culture in which to store your savings?

With regard to the FRB money spigot, the answer to that question lies in the meaning of the word "spigot", the ownership in the FRB and the inexorable demand of politicians for bread and circuses.

Converting FRN's into food, lead, band-aids and gold/silver are my preferred preparatory steps for the future.

Just my way...

BR/DS

I'm a Alpha Strategist Hollwood, some of my investments are aimed at consumables that are sure to rise in price, Band Aids and Beans are cheaper now then they will be three years from now.

And for myself, I'm also a Guerilla Capitalist, an ounce of gold to me is meant to be used as collateral for things like Renatal security payments...

700 bucks to me is unrealistic, IMO shoot from the hip opinon, Gold will deep below that level, stabilize as more people cash out of Gold for liquidity, and then start sliding backwards and downwards.

The plus side is, there are legions of "joe average" who now have experience with PM's, it has been a long time since people made money in PM's, the market and the mentality has been expanded.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on August 16, 2008, 10:42:28 am
Thanks, Hollywoodgold and Padre29. Your posts are very helpful to me while I try to absorb as much knowledge as I can. (You know why they have that big "N" on the side of Memorial Stadium at the U of Nebraska in Lincoln ? It stands for (k)nowledge.)
 ^_^
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on August 16, 2008, 12:39:35 pm

Quote
Padre:

Some of what you say is true. There were Krug counterfeits in the 80's but the most counterfeited coins are the British King and Queen Sovereigns. There are many more counterfeit FRN's than gold coins, that printing press again...

My preference for Krugs is based on the lowest cost of the metal in a coin and they are the most recognized gold coin in the world. The Maples are very attractive but carry a premium and are "soft", meaning easy to scar and harder to sell.

Regarding silver and gold as "commodities", true to an extent. However, both have functioned as money for over 5000 years. It is only the treason of Wilson, FDR and Nixon that has virtually exterminated the knowledge of our Founders' warnings regarding paper money. While AU&AG behave similar to commodities in the early stage(s) of a bull market, they de-couple and re-assue their role as real money as the commodities bull matures.

If AU&AG had reached the pinnacle of the bull market in PM's, you would have seen magazine covers and newspaper front pages pronouncing the virtues of owning AU&AG. But no such thing has occurred. The airwaves are absent their importance in trade and commerce. There have been some remote discussions, Mexico proposing a silver peso, Malaysia and Dubai a Gold Dinar, but essentially, main street hasn't a clue.

Regarding your sources' predictions, who really knows? We act on our beliefs and understandings of circumstances and trends.

My own differ from the venerable Gary North. I believe it is likely that silver put in its low today or yesterday. My charting had 12.40 as the low. Gold, $700 would be a gift, at least for me. I believe that the low, if it reaches it, will be about $740 which was my prediction 9 months ago. I abandoned this "belief" on the last leg up thinking the low had been put in. A head fake. So, if it hits $740, I will smile and buy.

I suppose the question you might ask yourself is do you prefer the "full faith and credit (sic) of the US Government" or a currency that has ±5000 years of reliable history across virtually every continent and culture in which to store your savings?

With regard to the FRB money spigot, the answer to that question lies in the meaning of the word "spigot", the ownership in the FRB and the inexorable demand of politicians for bread and circuses.

Converting FRN's into food, lead, band-aids and gold/silver are my preferred preparatory steps for the future.

Just my way...

BR/DS

I'm a Alpha Strategist Hollwood, some of my investments are aimed at consumables that are sure to rise in price, Band Aids and Beans are cheaper now then they will be three years from now.

And for myself, I'm also a Guerilla Capitalist, an ounce of gold to me is meant to be used as collateral for things like Renatal security payments...

700 bucks to me is unrealistic, IMO shoot from the hip opinon, Gold will deep below that level, stabilize as more people cash out of Gold for liquidity, and then start sliding backwards and downwards.

The plus side is, there are legions of "joe average" who now have experience with PM's, it has been a long time since people made money in PM's, the market and the mentality has been expanded.

Padre:

I strongly believe that PM's should be a component of any gulching strategy. There are countless stories of how people in dire need and/or trouble, were able to "make their way" through using gold and silver. I believe that day will come again. Not everyone has the same capabilities whether that be physical, mental, financial or experiential. But all can afford a component of PM's.

I think that pre-65 90% silver coins are very affordable and will prove to be useful. For instance, a $1000 face value bag of coins today costs $9414.40. Thats 712  oz of AG. Recently, there have been 1/2, 1/4, 1/10 and rolls of coins offered by some dealers.

http://www.apmex.com/Category/17/90_Silver_Coins_Rolls__Bags.aspx

Here is an example of the math. If/when AG reaches $50/oz, which many, many in the industry believe is "certain", then a dime will be worth about $3.56. A $10 roll of these coins will be worth about $356 and can fit in the hand. They are recognizable and reliably silver thanks to a once Honest Money system, which will make them very useable in trade. As far as where the metals are going (meaning up or down), there is no reason to debate this the market will determine this not you or I.

Regarding the statement you made:

"I'm a Alpha Strategist Hollwood, some of my investments are aimed at consumables that are sure to rise in price, Band Aids and Beans are cheaper now then they will be three years from now."

Makes sense to me. I agree with this opinion. The difference I have is that beans decay, silver doesn't (barely). If beans are going up in FRN's, so will the PM's, it has always been this way. I lay back a reasonable amount of consumables but prefer to have reserves in more portable form.

Much has been written of fortunes made after world conflicts by people selling/trading necessities such as sowing needles after WWII in Germany. There are many ways to survive and there will be many ways employed in the future depending upon local circumstances.

BR/DS
 
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on August 16, 2008, 02:32:14 pm
Quote
"I'm a Alpha Strategist Hollwood, some of my investments are aimed at consumables that are sure to rise in price, Band Aids and Beans are cheaper now then they will be three years from now."

Makes sense to me. I agree with this opinion. The difference I have is that beans decay, silver doesn't (barely). If beans are going up in FRN's, so will the PM's, it has always been this way. I lay back a reasonable amount of consumables but prefer to have reserves in more portable form.

Much has been written of fortunes made after world conflicts by people selling/trading necessities such as sowing needles after WWII in Germany. There are many ways to survive and there will be many ways employed in the future depending upon local circumstances.

BR/DS

And there is a central point, if you save silver, and I save food and consumables, I can still eat and function, you will have to find someone willing to exchange their goods for your silver.

Scrooge McDuck and the gold in his money bin would be worth -0- if he could not find a willing seller to exchange gold for consummables...especially in a distorted post financial dislocation market, how would you value your silver or gold, or how would I price my beans in gold or silver?

I may just say no thanks to PM's and go strictly for a consummable that I may need like primers used in reloading...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on August 16, 2008, 03:42:34 pm
Quote
"I'm a Alpha Strategist Hollwood, some of my investments are aimed at consumables that are sure to rise in price, Band Aids and Beans are cheaper now then they will be three years from now."

Makes sense to me. I agree with this opinion. The difference I have is that beans decay, silver doesn't (barely). If beans are going up in FRN's, so will the PM's, it has always been this way. I lay back a reasonable amount of consumables but prefer to have reserves in more portable form.

Much has been written of fortunes made after world conflicts by people selling/trading necessities such as sowing needles after WWII in Germany. There are many ways to survive and there will be many ways employed in the future depending upon local circumstances.

BR/DS

And there is a central point, if you save silver, and I save food and consumables, I can still eat and function, you will have to find someone willing to exchange their goods for your silver.

Scrooge McDuck and the gold in his money bin would be worth -0- if he could not find a willing seller to exchange gold for consummables...especially in a distorted post financial dislocation market, how would you value your silver or gold, or how would I price my beans in gold or silver?

I may just say no thanks to PM's and go strictly for a consummable that I may need like primers used in reloading...

Padre:

I understand your point. I am not suggesting PM's be "the" strategy but a part thereof.  As of today, my preparedness includes a gulch, perennial stream, woods, well(s), hay meadows, pastures, barn(s), horses, stash and game. Game includes deer, duck, geese, dove, rabbit, hogs (occasionally), fish, turtle and an occasional peacock and tools.

I have a years' beans so I understand your point.

BR/DS




Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on August 16, 2008, 05:33:04 pm
For me, the whole point of PM is to get my retirement fund from here to there without undue loss due to inflation of the currency. I don't have much in there, and don't want to lose its' value over the next few years. It really has nothing to do with my preparedness for any coming emergency, for which I don't have any money set aside, only food, a new spare winter coat and spare pairs of new shoes and boots, tools, and other items which I know me and my spousal unit will be needing with or without an emergency. Plus, I got off the natural-gas grid. Next, getting off the electrical grid and a backup for the water grid. So, I really have different issues and solutions than most PM investors. But the core of your posts is still essential info to me. Thanks.  :mellow:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on August 16, 2008, 07:49:54 pm
For me, the whole point of PM is to get my retirement fund from here to there without undue loss due to inflation of the currency. I don't have much in there, and don't want to lose its' value over the next few years. It really has nothing to do with my preparedness for any coming emergency, for which I don't have any money set aside, only food, a new spare winter coat and spare pairs of new shoes and boots, tools, and other items which I know me and my spousal unit will be needing with or without an emergency. Plus, I got off the natural-gas grid. Next, getting off the electrical grid and a backup for the water grid. So, I really have different issues and solutions than most PM investors. But the core of your posts is still essential info to me. Thanks.  :mellow:

V:

You are correct. PM's are an inflation buffer/protection. We re all on different steps of the ladder. I am just sharing the characteristics of the steps I am traversing.

Nothing more...

BR/DS


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on August 16, 2008, 09:56:08 pm
For me, the whole point of PM is to get my retirement fund from here to there without undue loss due to inflation of the currency. I don't have much in there, and don't want to lose its' value over the next few years. It really has nothing to do with my preparedness for any coming emergency, for which I don't have any money set aside, only food, a new spare winter coat and spare pairs of new shoes and boots, tools, and other items which I know me and my spousal unit will be needing with or without an emergency. Plus, I got off the natural-gas grid. Next, getting off the electrical grid and a backup for the water grid. So, I really have different issues and solutions than most PM investors. But the core of your posts is still essential info to me. Thanks.  :mellow:

Well V, keep in mind that PM's are hedges, designed to protect your purchasing power in a hyper inflated economy, the rub is, such economies rarely exist.

Add in the factoid that PM's do not draw income, nor accrue interest, and the situation becomes a bit clearer, do not bet the retirement on PM's, quite simply, you have to find a investment vehcile that not only will draw income, but also will have a long term earnings curve that is predictable.

For example, if you drop your retirement fund in PM's, when you retire you may see a loss, you may see a gain, you may not have made an extra nickel.

Whereas if you dumped 85% of your retirement fund in something like a Power Company, you will have predictable earnings and assets when you retire, not tremendous growth mind you, but a steady 4% per year earnings rate so in low inflationary times, you make money, in high inflationary times, you make money...PM's do not offer that...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on August 16, 2008, 11:10:10 pm
For me, the whole point of PM is to get my retirement fund from here to there without undue loss due to inflation of the currency. I don't have much in there, and don't want to lose its' value over the next few years. It really has nothing to do with my preparedness for any coming emergency, for which I don't have any money set aside, only food, a new spare winter coat and spare pairs of new shoes and boots, tools, and other items which I know me and my spousal unit will be needing with or without an emergency. Plus, I got off the natural-gas grid. Next, getting off the electrical grid and a backup for the water grid. So, I really have different issues and solutions than most PM investors. But the core of your posts is still essential info to me. Thanks.  :mellow:

Well V, keep in mind that PM's are hedges, designed to protect your purchasing power in a hyper inflated economy, the rub is, such economies rarely exist.

Add in the factoid that PM's do not draw income, nor accrue interest, and the situation becomes a bit clearer, do not bet the retirement on PM's, quite simply, you have to find a investment vehcile that not only will draw income, but also will have a long term earnings curve that is predictable.

For example, if you drop your retirement fund in PM's, when you retire you may see a loss, you may see a gain, you may not have made an extra nickel.

Whereas if you dumped 85% of your retirement fund in something like a Power Company, you will have predictable earnings and assets when you retire, not tremendous growth mind you, but a steady 4% per year earnings rate so in low inflationary times, you make money, in high inflationary times, you make money...PM's do not offer that...

Padre:

Best of luck.

BR/DS


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on August 16, 2008, 11:17:04 pm
For me, the whole point of PM is to get my retirement fund from here to there without undue loss due to inflation of the currency. I don't have much in there, and don't want to lose its' value over the next few years. It really has nothing to do with my preparedness for any coming emergency, for which I don't have any money set aside, only food, a new spare winter coat and spare pairs of new shoes and boots, tools, and other items which I know me and my spousal unit will be needing with or without an emergency. Plus, I got off the natural-gas grid. Next, getting off the electrical grid and a backup for the water grid. So, I really have different issues and solutions than most PM investors. But the core of your posts is still essential info to me. Thanks.  :mellow:

Well V, keep in mind that PM's are hedges, designed to protect your purchasing power in a hyper inflated economy, the rub is, such economies rarely exist.

Add in the factoid that PM's do not draw income, nor accrue interest, and the situation becomes a bit clearer, do not bet the retirement on PM's, quite simply, you have to find a investment vehcile that not only will draw income, but also will have a long term earnings curve that is predictable.

For example, if you drop your retirement fund in PM's, when you retire you may see a loss, you may see a gain, you may not have made an extra nickel.

Whereas if you dumped 85% of your retirement fund in something like a Power Company, you will have predictable earnings and assets when you retire, not tremendous growth mind you, but a steady 4% per year earnings rate so in low inflationary times, you make money, in high inflationary times, you make money...PM's do not offer that...

Padre:

Best of luck.

BR/DS




Indeed, who needs luck though?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on August 17, 2008, 08:23:46 am
For me, the whole point of PM is to get my retirement fund from here to there without undue loss due to inflation of the currency. I don't have much in there, and don't want to lose its' value over the next few years. It really has nothing to do with my preparedness for any coming emergency, for which I don't have any money set aside, only food, a new spare winter coat and spare pairs of new shoes and boots, tools, and other items which I know me and my spousal unit will be needing with or without an emergency. Plus, I got off the natural-gas grid. Next, getting off the electrical grid and a backup for the water grid. So, I really have different issues and solutions than most PM investors. But the core of your posts is still essential info to me. Thanks.  :mellow:

Well V, keep in mind that PM's are hedges, designed to protect your purchasing power in a hyper inflated economy, the rub is, such economies rarely exist.

Add in the factoid that PM's do not draw income, nor accrue interest, and the situation becomes a bit clearer, do not bet the retirement on PM's, quite simply, you have to find a investment vehcile that not only will draw income, but also will have a long term earnings curve that is predictable.

For example, if you drop your retirement fund in PM's, when you retire you may see a loss, you may see a gain, you may not have made an extra nickel.

Whereas if you dumped 85% of your retirement fund in something like a Power Company, you will have predictable earnings and assets when you retire, not tremendous growth mind you, but a steady 4% per year earnings rate so in low inflationary times, you make money, in high inflationary times, you make money...PM's do not offer that...

Padre:

Best of luck.

BR/DS




Indeed, who needs luck though?

Any investor that believes a 4% return in high inflationary times will net income needs luck, a lot of luck. Today, a 4% return is a 6-8% negative return.

"Well V, keep in mind that PM's are hedges, designed to protect your purchasing power in a hyper inflated economy, the rub is, such economies rarely exist."

That statement is only partially accurate. PM's are protection in virtully all levels of monetary inflation, not just Hyper-inflationary times. Gold has more than tripled in value since 2000. Compare that to the Utes. I agree that income stocks are a wise portion of an investment portfolio. Today the gassie trusts look better than the Utes (8-12%) although the Utes are supposedly "safer" being an integral part of the "grid".

DS




Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on August 17, 2008, 08:58:29 am
For me, the whole point of PM is to get my retirement fund from here to there without undue loss due to inflation of the currency. I don't have much in there, and don't want to lose its' value over the next few years. It really has nothing to do with my preparedness for any coming emergency, for which I don't have any money set aside, only food, a new spare winter coat and spare pairs of new shoes and boots, tools, and other items which I know me and my spousal unit will be needing with or without an emergency. Plus, I got off the natural-gas grid. Next, getting off the electrical grid and a backup for the water grid. So, I really have different issues and solutions than most PM investors. But the core of your posts is still essential info to me. Thanks.  :mellow:

Well V, keep in mind that PM's are hedges, designed to protect your purchasing power in a hyper inflated economy, the rub is, such economies rarely exist.

Add in the factoid that PM's do not draw income, nor accrue interest, and the situation becomes a bit clearer, do not bet the retirement on PM's, quite simply, you have to find a investment vehcile that not only will draw income, but also will have a long term earnings curve that is predictable.

For example, if you drop your retirement fund in PM's, when you retire you may see a loss, you may see a gain, you may not have made an extra nickel.

Whereas if you dumped 85% of your retirement fund in something like a Power Company, you will have predictable earnings and assets when you retire, not tremendous growth mind you, but a steady 4% per year earnings rate so in low inflationary times, you make money, in high inflationary times, you make money...PM's do not offer that...

Padre:

Best of luck.

BR/DS




Indeed, who needs luck though?

Any investor that believes a 4% return in high inflationary times will net income needs luck, a lot of luck. Today, a 4% return is a 6-8% negative return.

"Well V, keep in mind that PM's are hedges, designed to protect your purchasing power in a hyper inflated economy, the rub is, such economies rarely exist."

That statement is only partially accurate. PM's are protection in virtully all levels of monetary inflation, not just Hyper-inflationary times. Gold has more than tripled in value since 2000. Compare that to the Utes. I agree that income stocks are a wise portion of an investment portfolio. Today the gassie trusts look better than the Utes (8-12%) although the Utes are supposedly "safer" being an integral part of the "grid".

DS






That is 4% on top of inflation Hollywood, being monopolies, they have legally enforced profit margins, granted that is not a great return, but stability and predictability are nothing to sneeze at when investing.

And I should point out, even in inflationary times, PM's do drop in value there is no economic law that states "When Inflation rises, so do PM values".
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on August 17, 2008, 11:06:02 am
For me, the whole point of PM is to get my retirement fund from here to there without undue loss due to inflation of the currency. I don't have much in there, and don't want to lose its' value over the next few years. It really has nothing to do with my preparedness for any coming emergency, for which I don't have any money set aside, only food, a new spare winter coat and spare pairs of new shoes and boots, tools, and other items which I know me and my spousal unit will be needing with or without an emergency. Plus, I got off the natural-gas grid. Next, getting off the electrical grid and a backup for the water grid. So, I really have different issues and solutions than most PM investors. But the core of your posts is still essential info to me. Thanks.  :mellow:

Well V, keep in mind that PM's are hedges, designed to protect your purchasing power in a hyper inflated economy, the rub is, such economies rarely exist.

Add in the factoid that PM's do not draw income, nor accrue interest, and the situation becomes a bit clearer, do not bet the retirement on PM's, quite simply, you have to find a investment vehcile that not only will draw income, but also will have a long term earnings curve that is predictable.

For example, if you drop your retirement fund in PM's, when you retire you may see a loss, you may see a gain, you may not have made an extra nickel.

Whereas if you dumped 85% of your retirement fund in something like a Power Company, you will have predictable earnings and assets when you retire, not tremendous growth mind you, but a steady 4% per year earnings rate so in low inflationary times, you make money, in high inflationary times, you make money...PM's do not offer that...

Padre:

Best of luck.

BR/DS




Indeed, who needs luck though?

Any investor that believes a 4% return in high inflationary times will net income needs luck, a lot of luck. Today, a 4% return is a 6-8% negative return.

"Well V, keep in mind that PM's are hedges, designed to protect your purchasing power in a hyper inflated economy, the rub is, such economies rarely exist."

That statement is only partially accurate. PM's are protection in virtully all levels of monetary inflation, not just Hyper-inflationary times. Gold has more than tripled in value since 2000. Compare that to the Utes. I agree that income stocks are a wise portion of an investment portfolio. Today the gassie trusts look better than the Utes (8-12%) although the Utes are supposedly "safer" being an integral part of the "grid".

DS






That is 4% on top of inflation Hollywood, being monopolies, they have legally enforced profit margins, granted that is not a great return, but stability and predictability are nothing to sneeze at when investing.

And I should point out, even in inflationary times, PM's do drop in value there is no economic law that states "When Inflation rises, so do PM values".

Padre:

Today, in order to realize an 4% after tax after inflation ROR,  your utilities would have to yield upwards of 15%. There are none of which I am aware that come close. And, no, there is no economic "law" that guarantees PM valuation against inflation, just hundreds of years of examples.

I am ending my side of this discussion as a conclusion has been reached of mild disagreement with a quote by James Rawles @ Survivalblog.com who says it well when he writes, and I agree:

"Tangibles Trump Conceptuals. Modern fiat currencies are generally accepted, but have essentially no backing. Because they are largely a byproduct of interest bearing debt, modern currencies are destined to inflation. In the long run, inflation dooms fiat currencies to collapse. The majority of your assets should be invested in productive farm land and other tangibles such as useful hand tools. Only after you have your key logistics squared away, anything extra should be invested in silver and gold."


DS
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on August 17, 2008, 02:54:29 pm
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Mogambo/DREssays/MG081508.html
Excerpt:
A Big Stinking Economic Heap
by The Mogambo Guru
"And with a fiat currency and a demonstrated willingness on the part of Congress, and every other government on the face of the planet, to abide every possible corruption…they can spend and spend and spend, and it will never end until it collapses in a Big Stinking Heap (BSH)!"
I don't know why, but the phrase Big Stinking Heap made me think of tacos with their golden shells, which made me think of gold, which made me think about how I don't have enough gold in the face of such rampant monetary inflation, which made me think about how I can't buy any gold because I don't have any money, and I don't even have enough for a damned taco.
And it is not just gold acting weird and grossly under-priced, but silver, too, as Mr. Steer notes that "Ted Butler also mentioned yesterday that silver…by any measurement…is the most oversold it's ever been in its history." In history!

My mind screams, "It's the time to buy!" And I would, too, but I went to the kids' piggy banks this morning and there is nothing in them except useless scraps of paper that say "IOU $5. Love, Dad."
It's going to be rough in the minutes and months ahead. Take heed and take action!
More at link
Editor's Note: Richard Daughty is general partner and COO for Smith Consultant Group, serving the financial and medical communities, and the editor of The Mogambo Guru economic newsletter - an avocational exercise to heap disrespect on those who desperately deserve it.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on August 17, 2008, 04:49:54 pm

From March of this year:

Quote
This is true of every asset. No market goes up forever. If it falls and then recovers, and you never sold, you still took a loss. Buy low, sell high. Pay your taxes. Then wait to buy low again.

Do not fool yourself. If your coins fall in a recession by 50% or more, you will suffer a loss. While they were down, you could have bought more.

Of course, the precious metals may not be a bubble. Commodities may not be a bubble. They may recover tomorrow and soar, despite Federal Reserve deflation and 0% CPI price inflation.

But commodities have been sold as hedges against inflation. There is no inflation. There is recession. It may be a long recession. In recession, cash is king.

Gold could fall. I expect it to fall. So, you may pay a price for owning gold coins. I expect to.

If you are not willing to pay the price, you should sell all or part of them, or short gold bullion to compensate you for the loss. In short, count the cost. This is a universal rule (Luke 14:28-30).

I think the precious metals are a bubble market today. It is ending. Here is a crucial sign that it is ending. India is not buying. When Indians stop buying gold, they must be replaced by new buyers. Who might they be?

If you're not sure what to do, set target prices for selling a percentage of your gold stocks, gold bullion, and even some gold coins (if your percentage of coin holdings is above 15% of your investment portfolio). But do this in order to do something profitable with your money, such as selling stocks short. With respect to coins, consider shorting gold bullion as a hedge against losses in your coin portfolio. This way, you can keep the coins.

If you double your money on the way down by shorting stocks, and if gold also falls, you can buy three times more gold at the bottom. Maybe more.

But do you trust yourself to get back in at the bottom? If not, sit tight and suffer the loss. But do not kid yourself. It is a loss. It keeps you from buying even more.

http://www.garynorth.com/public/3263.cfm

Every investment does need an exit strategy, he is quite correct about that.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on August 20, 2008, 07:11:53 pm
According to my reading and fuzzy thought processes, the reason that silver's price is so LOW at the same time that there is a seeming SHORTAGE of silver to buy, is that silver futures have been vastly oversold, depressing the price. Real silver is not selling as low as the spot price, it seems. I wonder if (and assume) the gold price is being similarly depressed. Is there a "shortage" of gold also ? The U.S. Mint has suspended sale of gold coins. I assume, therefore, that a situation exists in the gold market similar to the silver market, and that the Mint thinks that they would be losing money selling at the going rate for coins.
You might check this out and see if you agree.  http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Mogambo/DREssays/MG082008.html
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on August 20, 2008, 07:13:27 pm
I find it interesting that the Kitco charts for livegold and livesilver have a high degree of visual correlation.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Rob25 on August 20, 2008, 10:34:45 pm
hey did any of you catch that the US Mint was no longer accepting orders for Gold American Eagles? I saw it posted on the front of the APMEX web site. The fact that they are no longer taking orders would probably increase the numismatic value of the 08' Eagles.. (?)


EDIT:

http://apmexdealer.blogspot.com/2008/08/news-alert-us-mint-suspends-sales-of.html
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on August 21, 2008, 09:33:14 am
Except eagles don't have much numismatic value, regardless of date.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Mr. Dare on August 21, 2008, 04:45:24 pm
Made a recent small silver purchase at spot +10%. I confirmed my theory that at least one local dealer has removed all the gold and silver from his shelves that was purchased at the higher rates pending replacement at current lower prices. I think the "shortage" at the coin dealer level is due to the sudden unprofitability of selling old stock at a loss. Look for supplies to come back quickly when the retailers are able to catch up with lower priced inventory. Once the price bottoms retail level silver and gold should be easily obtainable at small premiums over spot as always. Those who want to buy should have ample opportunity soon.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on August 23, 2008, 09:44:05 pm
Here is the straight poop on the housing and financial mess we are now in. This sh*t is scarey- here are the charts and graphs -all in one place- that will keep you up worrying at night or give you nightmares. "We are all freaking doomed !"

Edit in Red 
Oops- I forgot the link -

http://www.prudentbear.com//index.php/guestcommarchivedisplay?art_id=10098
"We are all freaking doomed."
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on August 24, 2008, 07:34:52 am
According to my reading and fuzzy thought processes, the reason that silver's price is so LOW at the same time that there is a seeming SHORTAGE of silver to buy, is that silver futures have been vastly oversold, depressing the price. Real silver is not selling as low as the spot price, it seems. I wonder if (and assume) the gold price is being similarly depressed. Is there a "shortage" of gold also ? The U.S. Mint has suspended sale of gold coins. I assume, therefore, that a situation exists in the gold market similar to the silver market, and that the Mint thinks that they would be losing money selling at the going rate for coins.
You might check this out and see if you agree.  http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Mogambo/DREssays/MG082008.html

FWIW, Steve Quayle says he will sell what silver and gold he can get for his usual spot plus premium.
The problem is that his sources are probably dry as well.
http://www.stevequayle.com/index1.html
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on August 24, 2008, 08:03:15 am
One of the best overviews complete with a wrapup I've seen:
http://bostontea.us/node/237
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Rob25 on August 26, 2008, 10:40:22 pm
apmex.com now has eagles and maples in stock. Gold and Silver. (FYI)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Rob25 on September 05, 2008, 11:51:07 am
this might not be valid by the time some of you read it but I've been watching spot proces and for those of you wanting to buy silver its been bouncing between $12.10 and $12.30 I would say now is a good time to buy... ?

www.apmex.com
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on September 05, 2008, 05:59:07 pm
this might not be valid by the time some of you read it but I've been watching spot proces and for those of you wanting to buy silver its been bouncing between $12.10 and $12.30 I would say now is a good time to buy... ?

www.apmex.com

Not yet, Silver is slowly sinking in price, I'd wait, the market will stabilize (IMO) once the Big Money is chased out of it.

8 bucks or so IMO, maybe 10, but that is a reach...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Rob25 on September 05, 2008, 07:19:34 pm
Really? I think it may still go down some, thats why I'm trying to "average in".. if thats the correct term? I'm buying in incrimints.. Like today I got a good chunk when the spot price was at $12.11. (but since I'm buying coins the actual coin price was $15.55)

on the other hand though thinking about that former IMF exec that was predicting a "huge U.S. bank failure" soon and the FDIC trying to find a way to make sure they can borrow money from the treasury (wtf?) if need be.. kinda makes me think that there's a pretty solid likely hood that the prices will rise back up.. ?

What do you think? If prices go down further do you think they will stay down?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on September 05, 2008, 07:31:18 pm
An estimated 1 billion ounces of silver is above ground in coin, bullion, silverware, jewelry, etc.  A portion of that billion ounces is being bought and sold.  More is being mined and refined constantly, but even more than that is being consumed in various ways.  Thus the real silver available for purchase is a small fraction of that billion ounces.

Meanwhile, there are 1 billion ounces of paper transactions known as naked shorts in the market.  People who have no silver are selling promises to deliver silver in the future (more here) (http://idaholiberty.com/?p=55#more-55). I suspect most of the people selling naked silver shorts know each other and are members of exclusive clubs like the Bohemians.  They have "gentleman's agreements" to continue selling naked shorts to keep the silver price down lest the rubes discover the stability of real currency.

The problems with their plan are those of us who buy and hold the real thing.  We keep buying. The volume of real silver keeps shrinking. Someday the price will run up like an empty tin can sitting atop an exploding M80.

Bold gamblers sit around waiting for a price lower than today's amazing low.  Good luck to you.

I'll buy the minute I can afford another bag.  I might lose a buck or even two an ounce, but I won't be sitting around with the shoulda-done's when it blasts through the $100-an-ounce mark.  At that point, waiting for the ultimate low will feel like the dumbest move of your life.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Rob25 on September 05, 2008, 09:02:55 pm
hmm good point..
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on September 05, 2008, 10:21:34 pm
Really? I think it may still go down some, thats why I'm trying to "average in".. if thats the correct term? I'm buying in incrimints.. Like today I got a good chunk when the spot price was at $12.11. (but since I'm buying coins the actual coin price was $15.55)

on the other hand though thinking about that former IMF exec that was predicting a "huge U.S. bank failure" soon and the FDIC trying to find a way to make sure they can borrow money from the treasury (wtf?) if need be.. kinda makes me think that there's a pretty solid likely hood that the prices will rise back up.. ?

What do you think? If prices go down further do you think they will stay down?

Welll assuming the IMF dude is correct, and the US Economy is doomed, how many folks are going to run out and buy a Christmas turkey in Silver Eagles?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Rob25 on September 06, 2008, 08:17:57 am
Quote
how many folks are going to run out and buy a Christmas turkey in Silver Eagles?

LOL. I was gonna get Christmas turkey with a 12ga.. but thats just me.. :)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Myrkul on September 06, 2008, 11:19:23 am
lol... the three precious metals: Gold, Silver, and Lead. Always wise to have as much as possible of all three.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on September 07, 2008, 01:13:59 pm
lol... the three precious metals: Gold, Silver, and Lead. Always wise to have as much as possible of all three.

As well as the platinum group metals, if you can afford them.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 07, 2008, 03:24:56 pm
Here is the straight poop on the housing and financial mess we are now in. This sh*t is scarey- here are the charts and graphs -all in one place- that will keep you up worrying at night or give you nightmares. "We are all freaking doomed !"

Edit in Red 
Oops- I forgot the link -

http://www.prudentbear.com//index.php/guestcommarchivedisplay?art_id=10098
"We are all freaking doomed."


V:

Here is the recent Willie take, always the chipper one that Jackass..

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/willie090508.html


BR/DS

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on September 07, 2008, 04:50:06 pm
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v391/dogsledder54/ME8.jpg)
Thanks. I think. V.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: OLD TIRED RN on September 07, 2008, 11:21:23 pm
Hi folks, I haven't followed this thread as I know it's a good thing to do and I knew I couldn't do it.  I had my choice to EITHER buy ammo, or buy metals.  Well, unable to do both and as cheap as ammo was and as NECESSARY as ammo was/IS, I decided to put up ammo. I truly feel that there will come a time that ammo will exchange for vital goods/food/medicine/etc. as cash/currency/fiat money does now.   

We just had so much misfortune that we didn't have the resources to do what a lot here could do. I'll go back and scan through the thread, but that's what I had to do. All good wishes to all of you.  Wish me luck.

                                                                           RN
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Rob25 on September 09, 2008, 03:30:38 pm
Ok so correct me if I'm wrong but usually the trend for gold/silver is when the market (stock market) is down the prices are usually on the rise.. right?

Because yesterday the market was up and prices were down, today the market is down and prices (gold/silver) are down even further! 

Is that not the normal case or is the pricing of gold and silver unrelated to the stock market?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on September 09, 2008, 06:10:28 pm
Ok so correct me if I'm wrong but usually the trend for gold/silver is when the market (stock market) is down the prices are usually on the rise.. right?
Because yesterday the market was up and prices were down, today the market is down and prices (gold/silver) are down even further! 
Is that not the normal case or is the pricing of gold and silver unrelated to the stock market?

My $.02 -  The precious metals markets do not follow the stock markets THAT closely. They may sometimes mirror the stock market (inversely), but may lag or even ignore the stock market. I believe that the relationship between the stock market and the PM markets are more indirect, in that they each respond to other more direct imperatives. Conventional wisdom says that stocks are the inverse of the bond market, and PMs are the inverse of the currencies that they are denominated in, in our case the U.S. Dollar. . I believe that the PM prices are levelling off/declining because of naked shorts on gold and silver. (Selling futures on gold and silver without having the actual gold or silver in your hands, or even a contract to buy in your hands. Naked shorts=fraud, IMHO; ie. selling non-existant product; acting similar to a con man or government.) When all the pent-up demand actually meets the physical supply, it will be at a higher level, IMHO.

And the long-term trend is UPWARD for precious metals nevertheless. It could not be otherwise, considering the shrinking buying power of the dollar. It will simply take more dollars to buy the same amount of gold or silver, or anything.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Mr. Dare on September 09, 2008, 06:20:46 pm
   I am not aware of any inverse relationship between the stock market and the price of gold and silver, the closest thing to that would be the value of the dollar, when the dollar goes down, it buys less gold (same as price goes up), but even that is not always a sure bet since there are supply and demand factors which also come into play. Sometimes hard times on the stock market will increase demand as investors flee to the relative stability of commodities (especially if inflation looks imminent and the outlook for the overall economy is bad for the next six months) and cause a rise in prices. These factors however are often temporary and unpredictable. Almost every theory has some validity, and just as many exceptions it seems... the only sure thing is that there will always be more stable value in metals than in currency or stocks when things get dicey.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: OLD TIRED RN on September 09, 2008, 06:26:52 pm
Way back early about three years ago or so I obeyed the wise sage advice to NOT EVER buy gold, silver, ANYTHING ELSE with borrowed money in hopes of rising prices.  Even though I KNEW it would continue to rise, yet had I done that, prices of gold, silver would have both dropped like a ton of brick.  Do that and here comes the margin call and there you go to the poor house. 

                                                        RN
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on September 09, 2008, 06:36:02 pm
Way back early about three years ago or so I obeyed the wise sage advice to NOT EVER buy gold, silver, ANYTHING ELSE with borrowed money in hopes of rising prices.  Even though I KNEW it would continue to rise, yet had I done that, prices of gold, silver would have both dropped like a ton of brick.  Do that and here comes the margin call and there you go to the poor house. 
                                                        RN

The key words there being With Borrowed Money

And be careful anyway, even YOUR money is borrowed from YOUR FUTURE.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Mr. Dare on September 09, 2008, 06:46:22 pm
   Smart thinking OTRN. Gold and Silver make a wise long term investment for part of your existing savings. I would not put money into any commodity if I did not think I would have some freedom in deciding when to sell. If you have to have the money next month, you may loose big if you are forced to sell on a schedule determined by the calender rather than the market. Words I live by: "Never wager more than you can afford to loose". For most of us, that amount is "nothing". Betting makes no sense for us. Dare2 and I invest a portion of our long term savings in metals because we can sit on them, if need be for years probably. A person CAN get rich with gold/siver, but you CAN get broke just as fast if you aren't in control. Naked Short selling is just begging for disaster... Seems I remember reading something about such things causing people to jump out of windows in 1929. Don't nobody ever learn nuthin?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Rob25 on September 09, 2008, 07:14:11 pm
V and Mr Dare,
Thanks for the input. That clears things up a bit.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 09, 2008, 09:24:18 pm
Hi folks, I haven't followed this thread as I know it's a good thing to do and I knew I couldn't do it.  I had my choice to EITHER buy ammo, or buy metals.  Well, unable to do both and as cheap as ammo was and as NECESSARY as ammo was/IS, I decided to put up ammo. I truly feel that there will come a time that ammo will exchange for vital goods/food/medicine/etc. as cash/currency/fiat money does now.   

We just had so much misfortune that we didn't have the resources to do what a lot here could do. I'll go back and scan through the thread, but that's what I had to do. All good wishes to all of you.  Wish me luck.

                                                                           RN

RN:

When you convert FRN's to PM's you are transforming wealth from a Fiat form to an asset backed form. The Fiat form is subject to arbitrary and capricious alteration of value through an increase in the monetary base over and above the increase in production, aka monetary inflation. Monetary inflation decreases the value of each unit of Fiat, aka, FRN's. Lets examine the multiplicity of restraints on the FRB from creating more FRN's and thereby reducing the value of your saved FRN's. There are no restraints. 

When you convert those "promises" into an asset you convert a promise into a tangible. When the tangible is either silver or gold, you have converted to a tangible that has been human's preference for  over 5 thousand years. Their supply increases at a maximum of 2% per year. No Fiat need apply.

For those who believe they cannot afford the conversion, I ask why? A $1000 bag of 90% AG goes for $8,346.40 tonight. Get 10 people together and for under 1K you can begin an enduring stash. PM's are not a "get rich" investment. They are a preservation of wealth decision.

http://www.house.gov/htbin/blog_inc?BLOG,tx14_paul,blog,999,All,Item%20not%20found,ID=080908_2360,TEMPLATE=postingdetail.shtml

BR/DS


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: clarence on September 13, 2008, 09:56:55 pm
those 'promises' can be devalued slowly or quickly, depending on conditions. the 'tangibles' can be confiscated by people who have other people to do their dirty work for them with guns. while both 'promises' and 'tangibles' are measures of value, true barter is the only way to really know what you're getting and what you have. "got gold?" why?

clarence

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 13, 2008, 10:20:20 pm
those 'promises' can be devalued slowly or quickly, depending on conditions. the 'tangibles' can be confiscated by people who have other people to do their dirty work for them with guns. while both 'promises' and 'tangibles' are measures of value, true barter is the only way to really know what you're getting and what you have. "got gold?" why?

clarence



Because it is the medium of barter preferred for over 5000 years???
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: clarence on September 13, 2008, 11:03:40 pm
those 'promises' can be devalued slowly or quickly, depending on conditions. the 'tangibles' can be confiscated by people who have other people to do their dirty work for them with guns. while both 'promises' and 'tangibles' are measures of value, true barter is the only way to really know what you're getting and what you have. "got gold?" why?

clarence



Because it is the medium of barter preferred for over 5000 years???

i did say true barter. the 'medium' is not the measure. and it's taken a long time for the world to realise that 'money' by whatever name is just fakery. the current problem with 'money' is going to cause major hardship and may take down a large portion of the world's economy and population by attrition.

clarence
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 14, 2008, 08:19:33 am
Quote
i did say true barter.

Clarence:

I see. I assume you mean an exchange where both parties are end users of the exchanged commodities. If correct, then true barter as you define it would seldom occur and if it did, would cause deep deprivation. More commonly one would trade what one had for the best one could get at that particular time and in that particular circumstance. Best meaning the most exchangable commodity that was durable and readily transportable and optimally fungible.

And what of surplus? How would I store its value?

"True barter", as clarified above, is a narrow, impractical and idealistic form of exchange on any scale.

JMHO

DS
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: clarence on September 16, 2008, 02:10:09 am
Quote
i did say true barter.

Clarence:

I see. I assume you mean an exchange where both parties are end users of the exchanged commodities. If correct, then true barter as you define it would seldom occur and if it did, would cause deep deprivation. More commonly one would trade what one had for the best one could get at that particular time and in that particular circumstance. Best meaning the most exchangable commodity that was durable and readily transportable and optimally fungible.

And what of surplus? How would I store its value?

"True barter", as clarified above, is a narrow, impractical and idealistic form of exchange on any scale.

JMHO

DS

in a market of limited opportunity and commodities, barter is impractical because of the inherent limitations. in a market of greater opportunity and more commodities, barter becomes a carry trade where you make trades with as many people and with as many commodities as needed to get what you want from the market.

as today, your surplus would be stored in any durable commodity that could be traded for. if the commodity that fit that criteria were a metal or mineral then it would be the sensible choice.

it is the actual, physical trading of commodities which is the heart of barter. what has killed barter and will damage or destroy the current economy is the 'money' that has driven out the direct exchange of goods. 'money' has stopped being representative of stored value directly redeemable for goods. 'money' has also been devalued purposefully by the manipulation of its availability and because of its severed relationship with the backing of goods.

like freedom and liberty, trade is difficult. but, to be truly free, each person must take the responsibility for their own lives in their own two hands. this doesn't mean being totally self-sufficient. it means being able and willing to produce something useful to trade with others who are producing what you need or want.

clarence
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 16, 2008, 07:57:43 am
Quote
i did say true barter.

Clarence:

I see. I assume you mean an exchange where both parties are end users of the exchanged commodities. If correct, then true barter as you define it would seldom occur and if it did, would cause deep deprivation. More commonly one would trade what one had for the best one could get at that particular time and in that particular circumstance. Best meaning the most exchangable commodity that was durable and readily transportable and optimally fungible.

And what of surplus? How would I store its value?

"True barter", as clarified above, is a narrow, impractical and idealistic form of exchange on any scale.

JMHO

DS

in a market of limited opportunity and commodities, barter is impractical because of the inherent limitations. in a market of greater opportunity and more commodities, barter becomes a carry trade where you make trades with as many people and with as many commodities as needed to get what you want from the market.

as today, your surplus would be stored in any durable commodity that could be traded for. if the commodity that fit that criteria were a metal or mineral then it would be the sensible choice.

it is the actual, physical trading of commodities which is the heart of barter. what has killed barter and will damage or destroy the current economy is the 'money' that has driven out the direct exchange of goods. 'money' has stopped being representative of stored value directly redeemable for goods. 'money' has also been devalued purposefully by the manipulation of its availability and because of its severed relationship with the backing of goods.

like freedom and liberty, trade is difficult. but, to be truly free, each person must take the responsibility for their own lives in their own two hands. this doesn't mean being totally self-sufficient. it means being able and willing to produce something useful to trade with others who are producing what you need or want.

clarence

Clarence:

It seems we agree on this.

BR/DS
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: clarence on September 19, 2008, 12:32:08 am
Quote
Clarence:

It seems we agree on this.

BR/DS

i find that if i talk with someone long enough that is what happens.

clarence
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Rob25 on September 21, 2008, 09:31:56 am
Quote
RHINEBECK, N.Y., Nov. 19 (UPI) -- A financial crisis will likely send the U.S. dollar into a free fall of as much as 90 percent and gold soaring to $2,000 an ounce, a trends researcher said.



http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2007/11/19/Forecast_US_dollar_could_plunge_90_pct/UPI-48761195499806/
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 21, 2008, 10:18:53 am
Quote
RHINEBECK, N.Y., Nov. 19 (UPI) -- A financial crisis will likely send the U.S. dollar into a free fall of as much as 90 percent and gold soaring to $2,000 an ounce, a trends researcher said.



http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2007/11/19/Forecast_US_dollar_could_plunge_90_pct/UPI-48761195499806/

Rob:

Personally, I think he is being very conservative at $2000. I expect to see at least double that. I suppose it all depends upon the time frame. Purely on a dollar inflation adjusted basis it would have to get to around $3K to equal the 1980 price/value.

Just an opinion

DS
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Rob25 on September 21, 2008, 10:23:06 am
nice.. and those opinions I like! lol. I have really been putting every spare cent that I have towards gold, silver and lead  ^_^ .. I recently moved about 5 miles away from where I work so I hardly ever buy gas anymore.. That has helped me a lot!

But I'm glad you enjoyed the link I think others will find it interesting as well..

And another thing!... Do you think the recent bailout plan will send prices up or temporarily down? It seemed as though Gold prices went down as the stock prices went up and everybody calmed down now that the gov't is bailing out EVERYONE.. The last close was down $20.50..
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 21, 2008, 08:49:15 pm
nice.. and those opinions I like! lol. I have really been putting every spare cent that I have towards gold, silver and lead  ^_^ .. I recently moved about 5 miles away from where I work so I hardly ever buy gas anymore.. That has helped me a lot!

But I'm glad you enjoyed the link I think others will find it interesting as well..

And another thing!... Do you think the recent bailout plan will send prices up or temporarily down? It seemed as though Gold prices went down as the stock prices went up and everybody calmed down now that the gov't is bailing out EVERYONE.. The last close was down $20.50..

Rob:

The PPT will orchestrate a decline in AU at every opportunity. These are buying opportunities for us. Essentially, the Fed is subsidizing AU as they sell short to depress it. The more intervention, the more that People will be inclined to question the value of Fiat. "You can fool some of the people all of the time..." Its a little like shooting a coyote. They instinctively run for cover. You can waste ammo while he is running through cover or wait for him to break through the next clearing. The PPT will do what it can do, sell short and sell AU. As People understand how they buy, aka money out of thin air, and as there is less and less physical to sell, the writing on the wall appears and it reads, "Shumer"!

If you can't "afford" to buy AU, then team up with like minded and but 90% bags and split them.

I have a proprietary search regimen that I have used daily since 2004. It tracks public awareness of AU. It clearly shows that AU is no where close to a parabolic rise (aka blow-off). If you want, I can send a pdf chart to you. It is about 400K so if you block attachments, it won't come through.

BR/DS


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Rob25 on September 22, 2008, 01:23:46 pm
please.. I would love the to have a better understanding of the times we are in. What do AU and PPT stand for? LOL
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 22, 2008, 01:29:52 pm
please.. I would love the to have a better understanding of the times we are in. What do AU and PPT stand for? LOL

Rob:

Sorry, many interested in gold are aware of these acronyms.

Au Periodic table symbol for gold short for "aurum" in latin
PPT  Plunge Protection Team, reports to the President and now believed to regularly intervene in PM (precious metals) markets in an attempt to suppress the price(s).

DS
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on September 22, 2008, 06:21:07 pm
Quote
Personally, I think he is being very conservative at $2000. I expect to see at least double that.

Yeah, that occurred to me too.

If the dollar goes down 90%, then the new value is 1/10th of the old value. If that's the only change
(relative values stay intact), then the price of everything becomes 10x what it is now. In that case,
$900 gold becomes $9,000 gold.

If the value of the dollars loses 90% and gold ONLY goes to $2,000, it would be that the demand for
gold has gone down. I don't see that happening in a dollar crash situation.

Either his 90% dollar decline figure is too ambitious, or his price for gold is too conservative.

Bear

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on September 24, 2008, 11:33:23 am
Be careful what you wish for.

If gold goes to $9,000, there is every reason for it to go to $90,000, then $900,000, and so forth. Hyperinflation is a real threat, and the probability is rising rather dramatically these days.

In a hyperinflation, everything that everyone thinks they own that is denominated in dollars would vanish.  Pension plans, life insurance, bank balances, all gone.  Since most of our "dollars" are electronic bits rather than printed paper, we wouldn't even get the benefit of burning them.

This would truly be TEOTWAWKI, and that's not something I want.  I may live to see it, and because I have gold and silver I will have better prospects than those that don't, but I don't wish that fate on me, or any of us.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on September 24, 2008, 11:36:36 am
I wish for, have been waiting for, hyperinflation, because the price of gold and silver will most likely lead the prices of what I've been saving them for. If not, at least parity is locked in.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on September 24, 2008, 12:42:23 pm
I wish for, have been waiting for, hyperinflation, because the price of gold and silver will most likely lead the prices of what I've been saving them for. If not, at least parity is locked in.

It is going to be an ugly world.  Not all of us here in this little Mental Militia community are going to survive the transition. All of us are going to lose friends, neighbors and dear relatives.  Even the completely-off-the-grid, fully-self-sufficient 0.000001% of us will hurt.  I don't care how big your pile of gold and silver, how great your garden, how bountiful your pantry, how full your gun safe, this will be a horror compared to the lives we have always known.

The slim chance that we will find liberty on the other side is my one hope.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 24, 2008, 03:26:53 pm
I wish for, have been waiting for, hyperinflation, because the price of gold and silver will most likely lead the prices of what I've been saving them for. If not, at least parity is locked in.

It is going to be an ugly world.  Not all of us here in this little Mental Militia community are going to survive the transition. All of us are going to lose friends, neighbors and dear relatives.  Even the completely-off-the-grid, fully-self-sufficient 0.000001% of us will hurt.  I don't care how big your pile of gold and silver, how great your garden, how bountiful your pantry, how full your gun safe, this will be a horror compared to the lives we have always known.

The slim chance that we will find liberty on the other side is my one hope.



Sage words Slider.

DS
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on September 24, 2008, 03:31:45 pm
I wish for, have been waiting for, hyperinflation, because the price of gold and silver will most likely lead the prices of what I've been saving them for. If not, at least parity is locked in.

It is going to be an ugly world.  Not all of us here in this little Mental Militia community are going to survive the transition. All of us are going to lose friends, neighbors and dear relatives.  Even the completely-off-the-grid, fully-self-sufficient 0.000001% of us will hurt.  I don't care how big your pile of gold and silver, how great your garden, how bountiful your pantry, how full your gun safe, this will be a horror compared to the lives we have always known.

The slim chance that we will find liberty on the other side is my one hope.



Sage words Slider.

DS

With the exception of those producers which are put out of operation, the market will see to the provision of those who can pay for it.
Liberty will be, as at all other times, for those who will seize it.  Natural selection will take care of those who can't or won't.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on September 25, 2008, 09:59:17 am
This is some thread!  4.5 years, 10,000+ reads, 300+ posts, and still going strong.  I just re-read the first post, and every word is still as true as the day they were written.

When I started this thread, you could buy a 1 ozt gold Eagle for $428, and it dropped to $401 within a week or so.
Today, that same gold Eagle will cost you at least $920, assuming you can find any to buy at all.

That's a 229% increase, just over 20% per year for 4.5 years.  What other investment has made returns like that during the past 5 years?  The price of a stock can go to zero (I know from personal experience) but whatever the price of gold is on the day you have to sell it, it won't be zero.  I bought gold not because I thought it was a good investment, but because I know it is not a bad one.

Here's the secret: you haven't seen anything yet.  To quote Doug Casey, gold isn't going to the sky, its going to the moon.  It's still cheap at twice the price it was 4+ years ago.

Got gold?

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 25, 2008, 10:07:29 am
This is some thread!  4.5 years, 10,000+ reads, 300+ posts, and still going strong.  I just re-read the first post, and every word is still as true as the day they were written.

When I started this thread, you could buy a 1 ozt gold Eagle for $428, and it dropped to $401 within a week or so.
Today, that same gold Eagle will cost you at least $920, assuming you can find any to buy at all.

That's a 229% increase, just over 20% per year for 4.5 years.  What other investment has made returns like that during the past 5 years?  The price of a stock can go to zero (I know from personal experience) but whatever the price of gold is on the day you have to sell it, it won't be zero.  I bought gold not because I thought it was a good investment, but because I know it is not a bad one.

Here's the secret: you haven't seen anything yet.  To quote Doug Casey, gold isn't going to the sky, its going to the moon.  It's still cheap at twice the price it was 4+ years ago.

Got gold?

Peace,

Silver

And Silver Silver?

DS
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on September 25, 2008, 11:30:35 am
Silver too.  That's covered in a post I made on the first page of this thread.

The fundamentals of silver are somewhat different than gold, and it tends to be a lot more volatile.  For those with strong stomachs, silver has and will continue to give a wild ride.  I like both.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on September 25, 2008, 11:34:33 am
Silver too.  That's covered in a post I made on the first page of this thread.

The fundamentals of silver are somewhat different than gold, and it tends to be a lot more volatile.  For those with strong stomachs, silver has and will continue to give a wild ride.  I like both.

Peace,

Silver

Robert Chapman groups silver and the platinum group together as more likely to show volatibility because of their production uses.  He's been doing analysis for almost as long as I've been alive, so he might have a longer timeframe to work with. theinternationalforecaster.com
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 25, 2008, 01:36:12 pm
Silver too.  That's covered in a post I made on the first page of this thread.

The fundamentals of silver are somewhat different than gold, and it tends to be a lot more volatile.  For those with strong stomachs, silver has and will continue to give a wild ride.  I like both.

Peace,

Silver

Robert Chapman groups silver and the platinum group together as more likely to show volatibility because of their production uses.  He's been doing analysis for almost as long as I've been alive, so he might have a longer timeframe to work with. theinternationalforecaster.com

Vonu:

Chapman is a very knowledgeable gold writer and once trader. Another old writer I read is Richard Russell. His letter, Dow Theory Letters is now 50 years old. He has written it continuously over that time period and is very much a PM bull at this time. He's not a "bug" but rather a "bull" regarding PM's and regularly blasts the FRB, the USD, the government and is a supporter of Ron Paul. He's 83 and still writing although less now than earlier this year. Had a minor stroke and pulled back. Thanks for the Chapman link. I have read his articles but never visited his site.

BR/DS
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on September 25, 2008, 01:37:38 pm
For most of their history, 17 ounces of silver would buy one ounce of gold.  Today that ratio is 66 to 1.  If nothing else changed but that silver returned to its normal relationship with gold, it would go up from its current $13.35 to $51.  I see more growth potential in silver.

Another concern I have with gold is the potential for confiscation is higher.  It has been done before. Not that they couldn't make silver hard to circulate as well, but it would be more difficult.

If the masses can accept this latest socialization without a whimper, nothing is off the board.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 25, 2008, 01:55:07 pm
For most of their history, 17 ounces of silver would buy one ounce of gold.  Today that ratio is 66 to 1.  If nothing else changed but that silver returned to its normal relationship with gold, it would go up from its current $13.35 to $51.  I see more growth potential in silver.

Another concern I have with gold is the potential for confiscation is higher.  It has been done before. Not that they couldn't make silver hard to circulate as well, but it would be more difficult.

If the masses can accept this latest socialization without a whimper, nothing is off the board.

Slider:

Yes, much has been written about the historic ratio and how it became established. Most say the relative quantity of it in the earth's crust establishes the ratio, "natural" approach. If you consider another ratio, that being when gold bull peaks meet Dow bear troughs, one ounce of gold will buy the Dow. In 1999-2000 the ratio was something like 54 ounces to buy the Dow. Today, its about 12.6. So, if the ratio of one ounce to buy the Dow occurs again, either the Dow has to come way down or gold is going way up or some combination thereof.

From Richard Russell's site:

Quote
Below is a chart of actual gold. The green column of Xs has recouped almost all of the preceding down-column of Os, and that's bullish action. A rise in spot gold to the 930 box would represent a massive bullish breakout with the P&F projection to 1300. All three charts are now constructive or outright bullish. The decline to the 740 box is what I call a bullish "tail," when they are reversed with the action reflected by the tail taking out a large number of hopefuls. Typically, when the tail is reversed, the item can move up strongly without a lot of previous holders. There's no doubt that the decline in gold to 740 knocked a lot of Johnnie-come-latelies and even believers out of gold. Thus, the air is cleared for higher prices.

Chart below.

So the Dow at say, 5000 and once ounce equals =$5000/16 oz's Ag=$312/oz silver.

This will be interesting to watch play out, I hope I make it.

BR/DS
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: mutti on September 26, 2008, 06:22:26 pm
Smoke 'um if you got 'um guys:

US Mint suspends sale of 24-karat gold coins (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93EJ2U00&show_article=1)
Quote
Mint spokesman Michael White said Friday that the sales were being suspended because demand for the coins, which were first introduced in 2006, has exceeded supply and the Mint's inventory of the coins has been depleted.
The Mint had to temporarily suspend sales of its American Eagle one-ounce gold coins on Aug. 15 and then later that month announced sales of the American Eagle coins would resume under an allocation program to designated dealers
So - which one of you has the lions share? :mellow: Mutti

edited to remove smarmy comment that didn't seem to help

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bill St. Clair on September 27, 2008, 01:38:55 am
Apmex (http://apmex.com/) has gold eagles and gold and silver maple leafs. They sold out of over 20,000 silver eagles in a few days. I ordered five, that being all the cash I had to spare. The maple leafs sell for less of a premium over spot. I've decided to start buying silver every month, one or two hundred dollars worth. Late to the party, I know, but ya gotta start sometime. Costs more in those small quantities, but that's what I can afford. Maybe I'll occasionally buy a 1/10 or 1/4 ounce gold eagle or maple leaf, but I'll probably stick mostly with silver.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 27, 2008, 07:51:49 am
Apmex (http://apmex.com/) has gold eagles and gold and silver maple leafs. They sold out of over 20,000 silver eagles in a few days. I ordered five, that being all the cash I had to spare. The maple leafs sell for less of a premium over spot. I've decided to start buying silver every month, one or two hundred dollars worth. Late to the party, I know, but ya gotta start sometime. Costs more in those small quantities, but that's what I can afford. Maybe I'll occasionally buy a 1/10 or 1/4 ounce gold eagle or maple leaf, but I'll probably stick mostly with silver.

Bill:

I think you would do better buying 90% halves. You can now buy them in as little as $10 rolls for less a premium than the Eagles.

http://www.apmex.com/Product/10945/1000_20_ct_90_1964_P__D__Kennedy_Half_Dollar_Rolls___BU.aspx

Another option would be to team with like minded, buy a bag or so and split. You could get down to 8% over spot that way rather than 20% over spot. Also, legal tender coins have some potential side benefits which may be of additional value to you in the future.

http://www.rense.com/general78/defeat.htm

Just a thought.

BR/DS
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bill St. Clair on September 27, 2008, 10:17:52 am
I think you would do better buying 90% halves. You can now buy them in as little as $10 rolls for less a premium than the Eagles.

http://www.apmex.com/Product/10945/1000_20_ct_90_1964_P__D__Kennedy_Half_Dollar_Rolls___BU.aspx

Those half dollars sell for $146.31 for a roll of 20. That's 10 * 0.723 troy ounces of silver, or $20.24 per troy ounce.

The $100 bags of junk silver contain 71.5 ounces of silver for $1069.90, or $14.96 per troy ounce.

Silver maple leafs are going for $16.96 per troy ounce. I paid $18.31 for the eagles I bought on Thursday.

Spot today is $13.41 (ask).

So maple leafs and eagles are cheaper than half dollars in small quantities. In large quantities, the junk silver is definitely a good deal.

And you may be right that the junk silver will be more useful for trade should the economy collapse. But I'm not betting on complete breakdown, since as far as I'm concerned, if the power goes out it's really not worth living; I'm not at all eager to eek out a living from the earth. Reality may convince me otherwise, of course.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on September 27, 2008, 10:41:39 am
Quote
... as far as I'm concerned, if the power goes out it's really not worth living;

Bill,

That's an individual choice, but I'm just contrary enough to not want to give in. Also, in a weird way,
I'd feel that I'd be letting down my late father and mother if I cashed it in. Besides, I'm curious to
know what such a world would be like. It would be an unavoidable adventure.

Bear



Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 27, 2008, 12:21:46 pm
I think you would do better buying 90% halves. You can now buy them in as little as $10 rolls for less a premium than the Eagles.

http://www.apmex.com/Product/10945/1000_20_ct_90_1964_P__D__Kennedy_Half_Dollar_Rolls___BU.aspx

Those half dollars sell for $146.31 for a roll of 20. That's 10 * 0.723 troy ounces of silver, or $20.24 per troy ounce.

The $100 bags of junk silver contain 71.5 ounces of silver for $1069.90, or $14.96 per troy ounce.

Silver maple leafs are going for $16.96 per troy ounce. I paid $18.31 for the eagles I bought on Thursday.

Spot today is $13.41 (ask).

So maple leafs and eagles are cheaper than half dollars in small quantities. In large quantities, the junk silver is definitely a good deal.

And you may be right that the junk silver will be more useful for trade should the economy collapse. But I'm not betting on complete breakdown, since as far as I'm concerned, if the power goes out it's really not worth living; I'm not at all eager to eek out a living from the earth. Reality may convince me otherwise, of course.

Bill:

You are correct, my calculation was on the full bag not the rolls. Regarding the lights out part, they wouldn't stay out forever and living without for a while might be a great elixir for society.
 

BR/DS
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on September 27, 2008, 03:17:25 pm
Quote
... as far as I'm concerned, if the power goes out it's really not worth living;

Bill,

That's an individual choice, but I'm just contrary enough to not want to give in. Also, in a weird way,
I'd feel that I'd be letting down my late father and mother if I cashed it in. Besides, I'm curious to
know what such a world would be like. It would be an unavoidable adventure.

Bear





Those who regularly tripped breakers, as I did as a child, would be practicing natural selection, by removing themselves from the gene pool before replication, rather than resetting the breaker:-)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on September 27, 2008, 08:51:37 pm
as far as I'm concerned, if the power goes out it's really not worth living; I'm not at all eager to eek out a living from the earth. Reality may convince me otherwise, of course.

I'm sure that a person as clever as you could figure some way to support yourself that involves your brains, not your muscles.
  :mellow:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on September 27, 2008, 09:14:35 pm
And you may be right that the junk silver will be more useful for trade should the economy collapse. But I'm not betting on complete breakdown, since as far as I'm concerned, if the power goes out it's really not worth living; I'm not at all eager to eek out a living from the earth. Reality may convince me otherwise, of course.
If civilized society continues, and I have no reason to think it won't, then those in the basic infrastructure maintenance business will do fine in the downturn, as long as they aren't up to their necks in debt and own the personal infrastructure they need to survive and prosper. Modern society is addicted to telecom and datacom. Commerce depends upon transportation.  You appear to have expertise in at least one of these, I have experience in all three. Anyone who is willing to apply their knowledge will do fine if the credit collapse doesn't fall on them, IMHO.  If you rely on the power staying on, you should invest enough that your personal power doesn't go off.
Title: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on October 02, 2008, 06:15:42 am
The shortages continue.  The US Mint won't sell 22-ct Eagle or 24-ct Buffalo bullion coins.  Even Tulving (http://tulving.com/goldbull.html#silver), who generally has good prices IF you are willing to make a substantial purchase, is charging an incredible $69 premium per Eagle, a full 8% over spot, nearly twice the norm.  You can get gold for $19.95 over spot, but only if you buy a 1 kilo bar AND wait for 2 weeks. 

This is not normal.  400 ozt good delivery bars leaving LBMA vaults at $25 per ounce premium (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bf8246aa-8f13-11dd-946c-0000779fd18c.html) is not normal.  For all practical purposes, the spot price of gold is about $40 above what is being quoted, IF you can find any physical metal at all. 

Got gold?

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ShortyDawkins on October 02, 2008, 08:08:46 am
Silver,
  As always, thank you for your excellent posts. Usually very thorough and well backed up.

Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bill St. Clair on October 02, 2008, 09:34:23 am
Apmex is out of a ounce gold eagles and maple leafs today. They have 1/2, 1/4, and 1/10 ounce  in both, but at big premiums. The best value in gold there appears to be Mexican gold coins. 50 peso (1.2057 oz) for $1,051.55, $23.69 (2.3%) over spot ask price ($852.50). Slightly cheaper in quantity.

http://www.apmex.com/Category/157/Gold_Mexican_Coins_2008__Prior.aspx

Their best bet in Silver was bags of junk American 90% silver coins, but they've sold out of them. They're expecting to have Maple Leafs to ship on October 15, and are selling them now for $16.35 each, or cheaper in quantity. That's a big markup over spot, which is $11.36 right now. Or they have uncirculated eagles for 17.20. I got five of those yesterday. Nice coins, but pricey.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on October 02, 2008, 10:40:11 am
The best value in gold there appears to be Mexican gold coins. 50 peso (1.2057 oz) for $1,051.55, $23.69 (2.3%) over spot ask price ($852.50). Slightly cheaper in quantity.

Yikes!  I picked up a few 50 pesos less than a month ago for $12 over spot per coin.  That's not much premium on 1.2 ozt.  They go for less because their aren't as popular, or well known, but gold is gold as far as I am concerned.  I think they are good-looking coins, and they are probably the heaviest widely-produced gold bullion coin.

At least Apmex have some.  I doubt they will last.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Mr. Dare on October 02, 2008, 10:48:41 am
They are pretty, I love the Aztec mandala. We had been avoiding stuff that wasn't US currency (widely recognized metal content) or had the content and purity stamped on them. May be time to take another look at the 50 Peso coin. I was looking for an excuse, this might be it! :laugh:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on October 02, 2008, 10:56:19 am
Quote
They are pretty, I love the Aztec mandala. We had been avoiding stuff that wasn't US currency (widely recognized metal content) or had the content and purity stamped on them. May be time to take another look at the 50 Peso coin. I was looking for an excuse, this might be it!

An interesting thing about the 50 Peso size - the 1.2 Troy Ounce weight is identical to a popular bullion weight in China.
I think they choose that size to be more appealing to the export market.

Bear

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on October 02, 2008, 11:06:19 am
I think they picked that size a long time ago, like 1921.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on October 02, 2008, 06:41:28 pm
The best value in gold there appears to be Mexican gold coins. 50 peso (1.2057 oz) for $1,051.55, $23.69 (2.3%) over spot ask price ($852.50). Slightly cheaper in quantity.

Yikes!  I picked up a few 50 pesos less than a month ago for $12 over spot per coin.  That's not much premium on 1.2 ozt.  They go for less because their aren't as popular, or well known, but gold is gold as far as I am concerned.  I think they are good-looking coins, and they are probably the heaviest widely-produced gold bullion coin.

At least Apmex have some.  I doubt they will last.

Peace,

Silver

The Peso's are believed to be more readily exchangeable on the street in the southwest region and if you happen to be south of the border. Not a bad practice to have more than one nationality of coinage if it is of the precious type. Depending on specifics, I'd say a good mix would be Krugs, Maples, Eagles and Pesos. A lot to manage and more expensive to put together but over time it can be done.

DS

DS
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on October 02, 2008, 07:28:18 pm
Supply and demand are broken.  We know what that means, but can't do much about it. 

Mrs. Sailor and I are hoping silver stays artificially low until our last order is physically delivered.  I never envisioned the ring knockers playing Monopoly-money with silver to keep the lumpen from buying a little security from a sound currency.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on October 02, 2008, 08:30:10 pm
Supply and demand are unbreakable, being merely metrics.
Both are ignored by the fascists and communists running governments, for their own gain.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bill St. Clair on October 03, 2008, 11:06:45 pm
My silver eagles came. Took a week from order to delivery. Next time, I'll send a money order, to save a little money, and it will take a little longer. I took photos of one of them in the light of my full-spectrum incandescent bulb and another in the sunlight outside. They're at http://billstclair.com/eagle/ . The last one on the page is my favorite. The photos are about 700K all-told, so may take a couple minutes to load on a dial-up line. Amazing what you can do with a cheap digital camera nowadays.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on October 05, 2008, 10:52:14 am
Article from Europe on gold "shortage". It still remains largely out of the MSM.


http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,druck-581923,00.html
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: sharp_shepherd on October 07, 2008, 12:28:55 pm
Okay, i have a question that i find as odd myself.  There is a shortage of Gold and Silver, don't believe me....go try to buy alot.  I have been picking up as many small bars of silver as i can find.  With that being said why is gold and silver so low especially in this time of uncertainty and why is the percentage difference in price 77 times?  Am I missing something or will i be rich once the idiots figure it out. 
If i'm not buying guns then i'm buying bullets.  If i'm not buying bullets then i'm buying food.  If i'm not buying food then i'm buying silver.  If i'm not buying any of those then i must be dead.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on October 07, 2008, 07:53:52 pm
I'm amazed that everyone, including me, has been talking about how strange it is that gold is hard to find when it is "so low."

When this thread was started, just 4 1/2 years ago, you could buy all the Krugerands you wanted for $392 each.  Now you can't get them even if you're willing to pay $900.  Silver was $6 an ounce.

My, what a difference a few years makes.  I wonder what we'll be talking about 4 years from now?

To quote the Mogambo: "Hey, this investing stuff is easy!  Whee!!!"

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: mutti on October 08, 2008, 08:02:03 am
Have a Gold Party (http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/SmartHome/story?id=5972164)
Good gulching "hobby" -
Quote
Thomas pays the partyers about 75 percent of the gold's worth.
until this part -
Quote
Thomas takes the jewelry and melts it into a gold bar, then takes it to the bank before the market price fluctuates too much.

Why not just keep it? People bringing usable gold to you which you pay 25% under market price for and you don't keep it for the future? Mutti


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: sharp_shepherd on October 08, 2008, 02:17:29 pm
I'm amazed that everyone, including me, has been talking about how strange it is that gold is hard to find when it is "so low."

Go to Albuq. NM if you want Silver.  We found a dealer down there who will sell it but the catch is that you have to go in person (Wierd) to pick it up.  I sent my dad down there last friday and he is bringing us alot back. 

Now, can someone answer why we had to go in person to pick it up?  Cause i find that so odd.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: freewoman on October 08, 2008, 03:57:08 pm
It doesn't have to be shipped or insured that way.  Have you checked out UPS prices lately?  I compared rates between the USPS (who will probably have a big rate hike next year) and UPS.  One of the residents of the retirement community where I work paid $17 to ship a package the other day, and wanted to see how much it would have cost her to send it via USPS.  USPS was between $4.80 and $11.00 (depending on the service chosen). 
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: vonuvan on October 08, 2008, 07:43:49 pm
It doesn't have to be shipped or insured that way.  Have you checked out UPS prices lately?  I compared rates between the USPS (who will probably have a big rate hike next year) and UPS.  One of the residents of the retirement community where I work paid $17 to ship a package the other day, and wanted to see how much it would have cost her to send it via USPS.  USPS was between $4.80 and $11.00 (depending on the service chosen). 

I have known UPS to leave a well-insured parcel on the doorstep when the door wasn't answered.
I've never known the USPS to give up a comparable parcel without identification and a signature.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: spatter on October 13, 2008, 08:35:23 pm
Ready to buy more PM's.  So...I called my semi-local dealer.  I bought quite a bit from him a couple of years ago and he had plenty then.  Walk in the door, pay cash, walk out the door.

Here's the situation now.

Gold - nothing is available except Maple Leafs and they have to be ordered.  Delivery takes 3 - 4 weeks, but you do lock in the price when you order.  The price per ounce is spot plus $75.  I didn't think to ask about Mexican coins, but I think he would have mentioned them when I asked about alternatives.

Silver - nothing is available except junk silver.  Well not exactly.  Silver eagles are selling at double the spot price.  No silver rounds.  Junk silver is 14 times face value which sounds about right.

The good news is that I was going to buy junk silver anyway and I can get the gold.  I had planned to buy more silver rounds, but...

He told a story about a fellow dealer at a recent show who paid him $85 over spot just to get some gold.

This is total craziness.

Spatter



Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Mr. Dare on October 16, 2008, 01:15:03 pm
Gold has just ducked below $800.00 per oz., Silver is at  $9.54. Wish you could actually find it for that.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on October 16, 2008, 06:24:00 pm
Gold has just ducked below $800.00 per oz., Silver is at  $9.54. Wish you could actually find it for that.

silver just broke that bargain floor of 10.00, you could see it coming, Silver is becoming cheap enough to stat to purchase again...between 10.00 and 5.00, there is not much risk in purchasing a modest amount.

That is, "if" the metals dealers are willing to eat the loss from 20.00 down to 9.50...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: spatter on October 16, 2008, 08:25:39 pm
Quote
That is, "if" the metals dealers are willing to eat the loss from 20.00 down to 9.50...

Around here it's IF they have it.

Spatter
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Mr. Dare on October 16, 2008, 08:36:44 pm
Some here have it, but the premiums are prohibitive, Peace dollars $16.00, Quarters and dimes roughly 50% over spot (or more) Basically you will pay 13 - 15 bucks an ounce for silver  here locally. Ebay is running a little higher last I checked by the time shipping gets added. Gold locally last check was about $950 per ounce, may have dropped a little, but I doubt more than 25 to 35 dollars. Sales have been brisk. YMMV.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on October 16, 2008, 11:36:08 pm
Sure sales at these prices are brisk, but deliveries are agonizingly slow.  The manipulators have driven the price of precious metals down, but the fictitious sellers are not delivering silver or gold to the buyers ... in any hurry, anyway.  We took advantage of the fire sale, but haven't seen the silver we paid for in over a month.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: NuclearDruid on October 19, 2008, 01:57:14 pm
Just came from a farm auction. I got 56 silver Washington quarters for $85. Coinflation shows their melt value as of Friday was $94.50. Now I get to go through them and see if any have collector value.

ND
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: OLD TIRED RN on October 19, 2008, 03:41:55 pm
Congrats Nuclear.....  Good on you!!  Way to watch.  On the "Three Stooges" Moe would be patting your head saying "you're a smart imbicle".  His way of putting a compliment. 

I know a guy around here who never misses an auction.  Comes up with all knds of values. Makes me wish I had money so I could too.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ShortyDawkins on October 19, 2008, 04:01:12 pm
  That's a real good buy, ND. The silver market is out of whack with reality, right now. The true price is probably double what you calculated. Good for you.

  Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on October 19, 2008, 05:05:05 pm
Well, I'm back... and while I was away...

Gold down to $773.nn

Silver to $19.nn

I guess I'll have to leave more often!  :laugh:

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: NuclearDruid on October 19, 2008, 06:40:08 pm
Congrats Nuclear.....  Good on you!!  Way to watch.  On the "Three Stooges" Moe would be patting your head saying "you're a smart imbicle".  His way of putting a compliment. 

I know a guy around here who never misses an auction.  Comes up with all knds of values. Makes me wish I had money so I could too.

OTRN, Shorty,

Thanks for the kudos. There were about six coin collectors there. I wasn't in it to find certains dates & strike marks, but I'll be darned if I was gonna let any silver go for less than spot plus 20%. That's what I promised Mutti. I was going just to convert some FRN's to PM without the upcharge. I was out bid on a lot of things but I go into any bid with a fixed threshold & never exceed it. There were some silver dollars that went for $25 ea., PM value was $7 as of Friday so my threshhold was $9. I think the lowest sold for $16.

ND
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ShortyDawkins on October 19, 2008, 06:54:51 pm
  The silver market is being heavily manipulated. A friend of mine who has been buying and selling coins, silver, and gold for years is going to a coin show with the expectation of buying as much silver he can. He knows the spot price is phony, right now, as evidence by what happened at your auction, ND. The real price of silver in the marketplace is somewhere between $16 and $25, it seems to me, just as you experienced.

Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on October 20, 2008, 04:44:21 am
The PM markets are certainly out of whack, although I'm not sure they are manipulated.  It may be that the NY paper market is setting a price that the physical market can't support, but that still isn't proof of manipulation.  Last weekend, 10/11/2008, Tulving was selling 100 oz silver bars at $1.99 over spot, which was just over $10 per oz at the time.  He had them in stock.  While a 20% premium over spot for 100 oz bar is high, at least there was some physical metal for sale at about $12.  This weekend he had 1 kilo gold bars at spot +$29, plus 100 oz silver at spot +$1.99 for delivery in 2 weeks. He's also selling Maple Leafs for spot +$49, minimum order 20 oz, delivery the week of 11/3.  That's the lowest premium I've seen  lately, everyone else is geting $89-$200 over spot for 1 oz coins.

If there is manipulation, then buy all you can, while you can!

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: NuclearDruid on October 20, 2008, 10:20:00 am
The middle class in India traded most of their gold savings for credit to buy into the stock market. Now they wish they had some PMs.

Indian BSE Stock Market Crash and Lack of Gold Demand  (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6878.html)

Quote
Bank-issued credit has helped India transform itself from a country without a middle class beset by city slums, poverty, cholera and famines into a modern-day miracle that in no way falls short of the Chinese miracle. Naturally, that is something to be proud of, and Indians rightfully are - so, just as naturally, they tend to go along with their newfound appreciation for western financial wizardry. Unsurprisingly, they have promptly expressed that appreciation by sinking a good part of wealth into it.

‘Sinking' is the operative term here, of course.

There is one more reason that has not been discussed much, but it is a direct corollary from the last sentence above. The Indian middle class that has squandered away its former gold wealth for an ephemeral illusion of even vaster future riches has gambled away its last undergarment and is now in no position to buy anywhere near the traditional amount of gold anymore. In good old western tradition, they lost their britches in the stock market. Now, they are reduced to bargain-hunters as they are only willing to re-enter the gold market at prices substantially below $800 per ounce.

ND
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on October 20, 2008, 03:34:31 pm
fwiw-- from http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/023583.html

Physical gold for sale
Posted by Michael S. Rozeff at October 20, 2008 12:31 PM
 
As I write, you may buy gold bullion for $796 the ounce assured and immediate delivery in Zurich and London. Comex futures are lower, but you have to wait a bit and then go through the hassle of taking delivery which they discourage. Monex quotes the Krugerrand at 824.70. Kitco quotes 844.70 for gold maples. The coin market is experiencing inventory shortages due to a rush for coins recently. There is no, repeat no, disconnect between paper and physicals: none between paper that calls for bullion delivery and bullion itself. There can be a larger differential between coin and bullion, but that is exactly the same as occasional larger differentials between crude oil and refined gasoline. ...
[/list]
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: spatter on October 20, 2008, 10:38:27 pm
Lucked out today.  Had an appt with the PM dealer expecting to have to order the gold and wait 4 weeks.  Somebody sold him 30 oz this morning.  By the time I got there, someone had already bought 10, but there was plenty left.

It was especially fortunate because he got word this morning that the wait for Canadian Maples (the only coins that WERE available) is now 12 weeks and they won't guarantee that.  He won't order them on that basis.

Also bought some junk silver.  Pretty much the last he had.

Guess we know where the cash people took out of the stock market went...

Spatter
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: spatter on October 21, 2008, 03:06:54 pm
Quote
I think I'd be too chicken to go to a PM dealer that required an appointment.

It's not required, but since I have to drive over 100 miles to get there and they close to attend shows, I always make an appointment to ensure they'll be there.

Spatter
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: spatter on October 21, 2008, 05:30:25 pm
Right now it's first come first serve...and I got a better price on Monday than I would have gotten the day I called. 

Also, I decide what I'm buying based on the amount of cash I have with me and what he has.  As it turned out, I spent a few hundred dollars more than I had planned in order to get some stuff that he might not have next time.

I suspect shipping for the amount of silver I bought would have been a lot...and I got my grocery shopping done while I was there.

It works for me.

Spatter
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on October 22, 2008, 10:29:05 pm
http://www.safehaven.com/article-11453.htm


Link has charts, &c.

Curious, no?
Title: "Got gold?" --GoldenJackass
Post by: Junker on October 27, 2008, 04:05:18 pm
Indicators and connections from news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass (via GYHD)

USDollar Death Dance (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1224791251.php)

By Jim Willie CB, GoldenJackass.com -- Posted Thursday, 23 October 2008
 
[/list]


Or... the continuing story, from one perspective at least.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on October 27, 2008, 06:00:21 pm


Well, I chatted with my pm seller the other day, asking about what silver is selling for an OZ with the price drop, and she said she did not know offhand, but they were having a difficult time getting metals from the distributor.

So for me, the shortage stories are not anecdotal.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: sharp_shepherd on October 28, 2008, 11:37:33 am
If you've got Gold or Silver in your physical possession you are going to be much better off in about a month.  If you've got gold backed paper you better be getting ready to wipe with it.
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1224691707.php
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on November 10, 2008, 06:54:09 pm
The premiums on gold and silver coins are dropping, suggesting that the market is working.

Today (November 10, 2008) tulving.com is offering American Eagles for $59 over spot.  That's a premium of almost 8% over today's spot price, but a whole lot less than the $99 premiums I saw just 2 weeks ago.  A typical 4.5% premium would be $35 - $39 at today's spot prices.  The crunch is easing.

More importantly, the 1 ozt coins are available, with 500 past year Eagles, 2,000 2008 Eagles, 2,500 Australian Kangaroos, and 500 Chinese Pandas in stock.  He has 45,000 Sunshine Mint silver rounds at $2.99 over spot.

It seems to me the market is working, and the time delay is about right for taking delivery of bars, fabricating blanks, and minting coins.  In fact, it's pretty darn fast.

Peace,

Silver

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: freewoman on November 10, 2008, 07:15:25 pm
That's good news!  Thanks for the update. 
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: OLD TIRED RN on November 10, 2008, 07:17:54 pm
Very grateful, Silver, for you keeping us up on that status.  Even though I don't have any money for precious metals, an bought ammo instead back when I did, I still like to know what it's doing. 


                                        Thanks,  RN
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on November 12, 2008, 11:56:42 am
I have been researching converting my 401k to a precious metals IRA for some time. I don't know what I am doing as yet, so I need some advice from you old hands. (I already know that I need to do this or face the LOSS of my retirement funds through inflation.)* (edited for anti-data-mining purposes)
I believe, and correct me if I am wrong, that I would be BETTER OFF withdrawing my 401k money, paying the penalty (20% ) and the taxes, then buying PMs, in order to save ANY purchasing power for retirement. * (edited for anti-data-mining purposes) I want to do this SOON, in the next 2 or 3 months, for obvious reasons. (Coming soon- BAD economic news, possible confiscation,  PM prices expected to rise, etc.) Thanks.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on November 12, 2008, 02:04:50 pm
See my response to Lenny (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=19354.msg245021#msg245021).
Double the disclaimer. 

Any PM account can still be confiscated by the JBTs.  PMs protect you against debasement of the currency, but not against thieves.  there's no way that I know of to predict whether it is worth the penalty, or when to make an early withdrawal. They will probably make any confiscation retroactive.

Good luck.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on November 12, 2008, 06:09:09 pm
That's what I thought. I guess I will do what I have to to protect the integrity of what I've got.
BTW, have you heard the latest at  http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html    ?
It is some POWERFUL discussion going on there.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: gridboy on November 12, 2008, 08:57:15 pm
I have been researching converting my 401k to a precious metals IRA for some time....

My buddy uses The Entrust Group, if you haven't already checked them out:
http://www.theentrustgroup.com/

gridboy
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on November 12, 2008, 09:10:50 pm
I have made up my mind to DO IT. Tomorrow. What convinced me was that I just realized that even though the Roman Empire is DUST, their gold and silver coins are just as good today as they were 2,000 years ago. And no matter if the government is forced to INFLATE the hell out of the money to pay its' debts, or whether it decides to CONFISCATE all 401k s and IRAs, I can keep some, if not all, of the real wealth that is presently contained in my retirement fund. As a matter of FACT, my retirement fund presently consists of a piece of PAPER stating that they OWE me a certain sum of money. I can do better than that. I have a responsibility to my family to do better than that, and to myself.
BTW, thanks, gridboy. I will check it out.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Lightning on November 12, 2008, 10:32:45 pm
Good luck, Joker.   :mellow:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on November 13, 2008, 12:33:22 pm
... As a matter of FACT, my retirement fund presently consists of a piece of PAPER stating that they OWE me a certain sum of money. I can do better than that. I have a responsibility to my family to do better than that, and to myself. ...


Aye, and it's time to consider moving out of the standard track and mindset.

As with Lightning, good luck to your on your new path.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on November 13, 2008, 03:07:59 pm
Thanks, Lightning and Junker.* (edited for anti-data-mining purposes)My mind is calm and my path is clear and certain. Today i took  over the responsibility for my family's financial future. * (edited for anti-data-mining purposes)  :mellow:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on November 13, 2008, 10:34:06 pm
Somewhere here there was a US gold standard question... in my notes I found, fyi:

de jure bimetallic standard from the 1850s, with the market ratio holding at about 15.5:1 while the official mint ratio was 16:1.

By 1872, however, a few knowledgeable officials at the U.S. Treasury realized that silver was about to suffer a huge decline in value, since the European nations were shifting from a silver to a gold standard, thereby decreasing their demand for silver and increasing their demand for gold, and because of the discovery of the new silver mines in Nevada and other Mountain states.  To keep the de facto gold standard, the Treasury slipped bills through Congress in 1873 and 1874, discontinuing the minting of any further silver dollars, and ending the legal tender quality of silver dollars above the sum of $5.  This demonetization of silver meant that, when, in 1874, silver began a rapid market ratio decline above 16:1 and finally to 32:1 in the 1890s, silver coins would not flow into the country and gold would not flow out.  Finally, in 1900, the dollar was defined de jure solely in terms of gold, at 23.22 grains ($20.67/oz.).
[/list]

And then in 1932/33, FDR changed it to $35/oz. after confiscating the citizens' monetary gold.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Truthseeker on November 15, 2008, 12:03:47 pm
Epochal Transformation Accelerates
   As Global Financial Matrix Disintegrates
                                       
   Now that the genie is out of the bottle, worldwide economic, political and social events will proceed with the inexorable force of destiny.  The forthcoming changes, shifts and breaks with the past that are delineated below do concern the unsavory business of WHAT, positively, will not be brought into the future.  This is of critical importance.  Why?  Because those who do not know, and understand, and heed history, are always, always forced to repeat it.                                 
      
I.   As we all sat back and waited for this year’s October Surprise, please know that it came a little bit early this year on September 15th which will forever be known as PITCH BLACK MONDAY.  Actually, the entire month of October was set up to be a series of Black Monday’s, as well as every other day of the week shaped up to be.  It’s really a good time to brace your self since this year’s election cycle, and beyond, will bring with it a whole new season of surprises.  Things like the beginning of the end of FIAT money – the real root cause of all our financial problems and economic ills.  This foundational flaw, together with all of the multi-layered financial/economic/accounting mechanisms and schemes that have insidiously crept into the system, are the ‘not talked about’ institutionalized culprits and structural deformities that really need to go.  Without them, the perps wouldn’t be so tempted to stack the deck against us all the time. 
   The only legitimate currency is that which is backed by GOLD, or some other precious commodity that is universally valued, and issued directly by the US Government, not a privately owned, organized crime syndicate like the FED.  Debt driven, fractional-reserve banking – the real bane of global finance – will then be banished from the planet forever, along with the overlords of disaster capitalism, institutionalized usury & loan-sharking (e.g. World Bank & International Monetary Fund), as well as their economic hitmen.  Finally, the central organizing principle of modern society, and especially Western Civilization, will no longer be: maximizing shareholders’ wealth.
   The writing is on the wall: THE FED IS DEAD.  And so is the Fed’s collection agency – the IRS.  The FED has obviously been on extreme life support since September ’08, and the only compassionate response is to let it go peacefully into the sunset.  Perhaps we should organize a simple taxpayers’ revolt, not too unlike those that occurred prior to the American Revolution, to bury this beast forever.  When the people do wake up, and realize that the Federal Reserve Note that they carry in their pocket is exactly that – a note (i.e. debt, obligation, debit, commitment, instrument of indebtedness), things will start to get REEEEAL interesting ! 

   


VII.   War, as a means of wealth creation, is now bankrupt.  War, as a means of conflict resolution, is over.  As a means to any end whatsoever, war is finished.  You get the picture, don’t you?  War has outlived its usefulness, and has become as obsolete as the derivatives hawker.  There is simply no more place for it in civil society.  It’s time for the curtain to fall on this show for the last time, and for all of its bad actors to hit the stage exit.
   It never was a legitimate policy for conflict resolution, as we know.  Virtually all conflicts and wars were manufactured in the boardrooms of the world.  And impeccably stage managed by the directors of the war studios.  Isn’t the Iraq war a perfect example of this kind of terrible and awful-to-watch “B” movie? 
   Any deliberate, probing and unprejudiced analysis of all the major wars going back to the French Revolution will reveal an extraordinary degree of  carefully calculated and coordinated events leading up to the actual conflagrations we call war.  Just read the actual history that is only now beginning to surface, and you will reach this very same conclusion.
   War has consistently served its masters in three ways which no longer have relevance in an enlightened civilization: (i) population control (ii) artificial creation of wealth for the plutocracy (iii) imposition of a tyrannical order in the wake of the chaos that always results from war.  Population control in this context has different meanings.   The number of people who are systematically genocided, wantonly annihilated and deliberately infected with disease agents serve the purpose of population reduction.  Then there is the sheer terror of war and its effects on whole populations (see how easily controlled both the Germans and Japanese were after WWII).  “Order out of chaos” is made easy when all concerned parties have been faced with the extraordinary distraction, mayhem and pandemonium that war always brings.
   There are, of course, many other declared wars whose battlegrounds are far from the traditional battlefields of armed conflict.  The WAR on Drugs.  The WAR on Poverty.  The WAR on Crime.  The WAR on AIDS.  Just like the WAR on TERROR, all of these so called wars are entirely bogus and fabricated, as they all have consistently produced outcomes that are completely contrary to their stated purposes.  How so?  Because each of them has been designed, and engineered, to perpetuate and expand the status quo.  The War on Drugs, for instance, was designed in part to ensure that the opium (and all of its profitable derivatives) flows freely and efficiently from the poppy fields of Afghanistan to the targeted markets in America and elsewhere.  In this way, all clandestine US and foreign intelligence agencies/secrets services are able to fund their innumerable black operations without any congressional oversight or public scrutiny from the massive revenues generated that this perfectly controlled black market provides.  Oh, yes, did we forget to mention that most of these black ops are actually wars as well.  What a Racket?!  As Major General Smedley Butler once proclaimed to the world in his book: “WAR IS A RACKET.”
   May the shadow governments of the warmongering and real “Axis of Evil” – the USA, the UK and Israel – truly imbibe the message contained in this ongoing proclamation: WAR is no longer an option.  For each of these nations is facing an economic armegeddon of staggering and unprecedented proportions.  When confronted with such an incapacitating monetary meltdown, the impulse (and subsequent orchestrated plan), historically, has been to provoke wars through false flag attacks/operations.  This knee-jerk, and carefully calculated, reaction will no longer work.  The consequential global financial apocalypse this time around will simply be too demanding and debilitating, especially for those who would attempt to plunge the planet into a WWIII scenario.  Why?  The global money matrix, that supports and keeps their war machine well-oiled, has been in a slow motion collapse for many years, and is now in an epoch crashing free-fall.  It’s disintegrating before our eyes, and will soon be unable to fund not so much as a dustup in the neighborhood sandlot.   
   The 4th Reich has completely run its course.  This last covert phase of the “Holy Roman Empire” is finally over.  And it’s now imperative that the maestro, and his orchestra, in ‘Rome’ get over it.  Let us once again proclaim, here and now, that: WAR HAS COME TO AN END. 

     
 VIII.   There is a very profound and significant connection between the US Government sponsored and staged terrorist attacks of 9/11/01 and the PRE-PLANNED Financial & Economic 9/11 of 2008 that may be difficult for many to fully embrace.  But here it goes:   
   The OMEN that 911 truly was, looks a little bit like THE LORD OF THE RINGS.
Remember the Twin Towers?  When they came down in NYC, it was a message to humankind that the reign of the Almighty Dollar was coming to an end.  As a nation’s currency goes, so goes its destiny.  Her financial strength and economic prowess were on the wane, and soon to be greatly diminished.  Just as the WTC (financial capital of the world) was pulverized into dust, the US Dollar would be swept into the ash heap of history.  Just as we see it collapsing all around us, exactly 7 years after the original 911 apocalyptic events.
   When the Ring of Power was finally destroyed, like the Pentagon (ring-shaped command center of the military-industrial complex) was mortally wounded and damaged, the message was equally clear.  Her military might and superior force would be reduced to rubble in the twinkling of an eye.  She would, likewise, soon see the demise of Her all-pervasive state sponsored terrorism.  This, because She had lost all moral ascendancy.  Besides, the empire could no longer be sustained politically, financially, practically or ethically, as the seeds of its own destruction had fully sprouted.  The most fatal seed grew into that extremely corrupt and predatory form of corporate, crony capitalism which was so socially unconscious, and so environmentally unaware, it was quite doomed from the very beginning.
    The GOOD NEWS is that this nation – its people – will now be compelled to beat their “swords into plowshares” and their “spears into pruning hooks”.
   Just as the Phoenix rose from its ashes, so too will America ascend to even greater heights.  As long as She ascends with the guidance of the highest of ideals, loftiest of   principles and noblest of intentions.  And She reforms, and transforms Herself, in good faith, in earnest and with haste. 
   As a modern day prophet said in the days immediately following September 11, 2001:
“America, Wake up ! ! !  Seize this God-given opportunity.  There is no more time to dally in fear and ignorance and greed.  For yours is a destiny that must serve as a beacon of Light and Hope and Peace to the world.  Make haste, the time is drawing nigh!”

T. Anthony Michael     
11/14/08
Publication, posting and printing of this article is expressly authorized.

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Jebur27 on November 24, 2008, 04:00:32 pm
Reality check on Junk silver -
   72 oz             (approximate silver content of 1/10 bag of junk).
X $10.50 /OZ     (Silver spot price)
-------
 $756.00           (Total)

List price 1/10 bag from Northwest Territorial Mint (http://bullion.nwtmint.com/silver_bags.php) = $1137.00

1137.00/756.00 = 1.50

So, the premium for buying silver in this form is 50%. 

Am I correct here?  Did I miss something?  Is this normal? 



Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on November 24, 2008, 05:43:09 pm
Reality check on Junk silver -
   72 oz             (approximate silver content of 1/10 bag of junk).
X $10.50 /OZ     (Silver spot price)
-------
 $756.00           (Total)

List price 1/10 bag from Northwest Territorial Mint (http://bullion.nwtmint.com/silver_bags.php) = $1137.00

1137.00/756.00 = 1.50

So, the premium for buying silver in this form is 50%. 

Am I correct here?  Did I miss something?  Is this normal? 


Jeb:

Your math is basically correct and no, this is not "normal" by the last few years premiums.  There were times over the last 5-6 years when you could buy a bag, ($1000 face @90% for spot or just over spot. This was an exceptional "moment" (spring of 2005 if I recall correctly). Generally, the price for "junk" was in the 3-7% over spot with the "normal" premium at about 5%. The futures market in the US and the LME decide "spot" prices which are paper contracts (I suppose most are?). Until there is a demand to deliver from the metals warehouses rather than to cover the options before expiry, there can be a gap, obviously sizable, between spot and "street physical". As was pointed out elsewhere on this site, the market will correct at some point by some method.

The most likely scenario that I can imagine is that buyers such as NW Territorial, Kitco, Apmex and others will take physical of the COMEX 5000OX contracts of 5-1000OZ bars and send to refiners to melt into retail products such as coinage and other various sized smaller bars. I believe that we will see that first draw down this December. The "first day notice" for the December contract is Nov. 28th. I believe that at this time, some sense of how many contracts will be delivered will become known to insiders and hence the market. Gene Arensberg in his "Got Gold" column watches these transactions very closely. I will get an email from Gene and post the info here for those interested.

By the way, there is some distortion in your premium analyssi because of the very small amount you used in your example. The seller has to break a bag (lost provenance) additional labor, packaging, marketing and handling costs are all greater for the small packages. Its similar to buying ammo in 10 count versus 1000 count, you pay a premium.

I hope this makes sense.

BR/DS
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on November 28, 2008, 03:56:20 am
You can use the wayback machine at archive.org to investigate premiums for gold and silver.

For example, on February 8, 2001, gold was $263, silver $4.61 (!).  A tube of 20 previous year Eagles was $272.95/oz, a premium of $9.95 per coin, 3.8%.  Junk silver was $4.72, a premium of $0.11 or 2.4%.  But silver Eagles were sold out.

Fast forward to Februrary 8, 2005.  Gold was $413.75, silver $6.55.  A tube of 20 previous year Eagles was $428.95/oz, a premium of $15.2 per coin, 3.7%.  Junk silver was $6.61, a premium of only $0.06 or less than 1%.  Silver Eagles were $8.06 if you bought 500.

On Februrary 13, 2008 (http://web.archive.org/web/20080213144331/www.tulving.com/goldbull.html#silver) gold was $903.20, silver $17.17.  Gold Eagle premiums were $27.95/oz, 3.1%, silver eagles could be had for $1.19 over spot, and junk silver was selling for $0.25/oz UNDER spot!

Today gold is $817, silver $10.41, and a gold Eagle fetches a premium of $77.  Silver eagles get a premium of $3.99 in sealed boxes of 500, and there are no 90% silver bags available.

It's a small market with large forces.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on December 03, 2008, 11:46:42 pm
Gold slid back to 766 today, that is close to the year low of 755, time to buy an oz or two, or is Gold caught up in commodities deflation right now?

For myself, I'm thinking gold has some room to fall in generally bad times, but will rebound when all of that cash hits mainstreet, to purchase now though, is to risk a dip and that could be a 1/8th oz coin in the larder.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on December 04, 2008, 11:23:15 am
Buying on dips is a good strategy, the hard part is knowing the bottom of the dip.  I'm definitely a buyer below $750, and I'm tempted below $800. 

I still believe that the gold price in dollars is low because of the demand for dollars to unwind losing trades, and the need for cash to cover margin calls.  You can always sell gold to raise cash, you can't sell an underwater stock to make a margin call.  The price of gold in other currencies is at or near all-time records.  Casey reports today (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey120408.html) that demand for gold is setting huge new records.  High demand, fixed supply, and low price suggest change is coming.

If my hypothesis is correct, then gold will take a very large swing upwards as the unwinding completes and the dollar resumes its trend towards its ultimate value.  This makes me more inclined to buy now rather than waiting for still deeper dips. I'd hate to miss this opportunity, but I can't know there won't be better ones.

Good luck.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on December 04, 2008, 12:44:40 pm
Buying on dips is a good strategy, the hard part is knowing the bottom of the dip.  I'm definitely a buyer below $750, and I'm tempted below $800. 

I still believe that the gold price in dollars is low because of the demand for dollars to unwind losing trades, and the need for cash to cover margin calls.  You can always sell gold to raise cash, you can't sell an underwater stock to make a margin call.  The price of gold in other currencies is at or near all-time records.  Casey reports today (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey120408.html) that demand for gold is setting huge new records.  High demand, fixed supply, and low price suggest change is coming.

If my hypothesis is correct, then gold will take a very large swing upwards as the unwinding completes and the dollar resumes its trend towards its ultimate value.  This makes me more inclined to buy now rather than waiting for still deeper dips. I'd hate to miss this opportunity, but I can't know there won't be better ones.

Good luck.

Peace,

Silver

So the theory is A. Demand for Gold is not being reflected in the price of Gold today? B. The amount of dollars being created will lead to inflation sooner or later?

Gold is much harder to get a handle on then Silver was, with Gold, there are so many reason to buy or sell it that a clear "pattern" is not developing, expected poor retail sales actually caused a dip in price...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on December 04, 2008, 03:00:39 pm
Close.  Demand for gold is increasing rather dramatically, as shown by the Casey report I cited.  However, demand for dollars is also surging.  The dollar price for gold is a reflection of supply and demand for both gold and dollars.  While the Fed can and does and is creating more dollars at a furious rate, it takes time for the newly created money to work its way into the markets.  Right now, banks don't trust each other, so the new money is not moving into the broader economy very well.  The suoply of dollars is more or less fixed, at least for the moment.

This means that demand for gold is high, but at the same time demand for dollars is high.  The result is a lower dollar price for gold than you might expect if there wasn't such a large, temporary demand for dollars.  I expect the demand for gold to remain high, but someday (the question is WHEN, not IF) the demand for dollars will approach zero.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on December 04, 2008, 03:32:05 pm

Alright Silver (and others) I ran across this long dissertation on the "why" Gold has not risen as expected as of yet:

There is no other leveraged commodity market where short sellers increase their positions, materially, as the price rises, and increase them even more when prices are exploding, except gold and silver. The reason traders don’t normally do that is that it exposes short sellers to unlimited liability and risk. Yet, in both March and July 2008, and on countless occasions over the past 21 years, vast numbers of new gold and silver short positions were temporarily opened up, with the position holders seemingly unconcerned about the fact that precious metals had just risen exponentially, and that there was a very real potential they would bankrupt themselves with unlimited upside potential. Normal traders would not expose themselves to such unlimited risks.

I conclude, therefore, that over the last 21 years or so, “fake” precious metals supply in the form of promises of future delivery have habitually been increased when prices increase until increased “supply” managed to overwhelm increased demand, leading to a temporary price collapse. This is compounded by the fact that the futures prices on COMEX tend to dictate the “officially” report price for the precious metals elsewhere.

After the market is broken, shell-shocked leveraged long market participants have always been thrown out of their positions by margin calls, and/or have been happy to sell contracts back to the short sellers at much lower prices. This process has always allowed short sellers to cover short positions at a profit. If for some reason naked shorts needed to deliver, they could always count on various European central banks (and some say the Fed basement repository) to backstop them, releasing tons of physical gold into the market. It seemed that there were always another 34 tons or so of gold dumped at strategic times to bring down fast rising prices. Meanwhile, huge physical market demand in Asia and severe shortages buffered the downside. Because of the physical demand, prices steadily increased but, perhaps, at a much slower pace than would have been the case in the absence of market manipulation.

Rarely was there ever a serious short-squeeze. Rarely, that is, until Friday of last week when the deliveries demanded by non-leveraged long buyers reached record levels. In spite of an avalanche of complaints from gold and silver investors, the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) has never bothered to audit even one vault to see if the short sellers really have the alleged gold and silver they claim to have. There is a legal requirement that, in every futures contract that promises to deliver a physical commodity, the short seller must be 90% covered by either a stockpile of the commodity or appropriate forward contracts with primary producers (such as miners). Inaction by CFTC, in the face of obvious market manipulation, implies a historical government endorsed price management.

Things, however, are changing fast. As previously stated, the first major mini-panic among COMEX gold short sellers happened last Friday. As of Wednesday morning, about 11,500 delivery demands for 100 ounce ingots were made at COMEX, which represents about 5% of the previous open interest. Another 2,000 contracts are still open, and a large percentage of those will probably demand delivery. These demands compare to the usual ½ to 1% of all contracts.



Official bailout funds have been used to buy equity interests in the various banks instead. By avoiding the use of monitored Congressional funds, the Fed has embarked on a secretive campaign to buy toxic assets. They have refused to give any accounting of their activities, even though they are using taxpayer money to do this. The Fed has refused, for example, to comply with a “freedom of information act” request from Bloomberg News. That refusal is now the subject of a major lawsuit.



First, the number of “reverse repurchase agreements” has been increased to $97 billion. A “repurchase agreement” is a non-recourse method by which the Fed increases the money supply by paying dollars for collateral. The collateral, in this case, are toxic defaulting mortgage bonds that banks want to be rid of. The cash enters the system and theoretically stimulates the economy because it supplies banks with money to make loans with.

A “reverse repurchase agreement” is the exact opposite. It is a method of reducing the money supply by selling bonds to the banks, and taking the cash back out of the system. In this case, the Fed gave banks cash for toxic defaulting mortgage bonds. Then, it took the same cash back by selling the banks new treasury bills just received from the U.S. Treasury. The Fed, in turn, bought these T-bills with the newly printed dollars. The banks, having gotten rid of toxic assets, were allowed to transfer private risk to the taxpayers. This process bolsters bank balance sheets by privatizing bank profits, and socializing bank losses.

At the same time, the U.S. Treasury has been very busy selling newly printed Treasury bills to anyone foolish enough to buy them. To a large extent, the fools reside overseas, but some reside inside this country, and the sale of these U.S. bonds has resulted in a substantial inflow of foreign reserves to the Treasury. Banks have also been offered favorable interest rates on both reserve and non-reserve deposits held at the Fed.

This was combined with what is probably a tacit agreement by which the banks were given the money and led to redeposit most newly printed cash back into the Fed, in a category known as “Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks”. This category has ballooned from $8 billion in September to $578 billion on November 28th.

On October 9, 2008, the Federal Reserve began paying interest on deposits at Federal Reserve Banks. The overnight rate happens to have dropped way below the “official” federal funds rate. Meanwhile, rates paid by the Fed on required deposits are only .1% less than the federal funds rate, and on voluntary deposits only .35% less than the federal funds rate. Accordingly, U.S. banks can engage in a dollar based one-nation carry trade, which further sequesters the newly printed dollars.

Banks are borrowing from the Fed, then taking the same money, redepositing it, and earning a spread on the interest rate differential. Banks can also deposit newly printed dollars into a category known as “Deposits with Federal Reserve Banks, other than reserve balances.” This category also earns interest in a similar way, and has risen from $12 billion to $554 billion in the same time period. The funds will eventually be used for direct lending from the Fed to open market borrowers, at huge levels of risk that even the free-wheeling cowboys who run things at America’s private banks are not willing to accept.



Right now, however, the Fed wants to sequester the new dollars, until the U.S. Treasury has finished the major part of its funding activities. That will allow the Treasury to borrow money at very low rates. The Fed intends to feed money into the system, but at the minimum rate needed to prevent the DOW index from staying under 8,000 for any significant period of time. Right now, most measures are designed simply to stop U.S. banking laws from automatically requiring the closure of most big banks.

The extent of manipulations engaged in by this Federal Reserve is mind numbing. The total number of sequestered dollars has now reached well in excess of $1.2 trillion dollars. That means that Fed credit, so far, has been effectively increased only by about 10%, over the last 2.5 months, rather than 150% that appears on the surface of the Fed balance sheet. The rest is temporarily sequestered.

Back in July, the U.S. Treasury, through the ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund), sold billions of euros and, I believe, established a dollar sequestering “derivative” by paying interest, perhaps in Euros, to foreign money center banks. This was designed to keep dollars out of circulation, overseas. It was the beginning of the dollar bull back on July 15th.

I had thought, at the time, with good reason, that the U.S. would run out of foreign exchange and would be forced to close down the operation within a few months. I underestimated Ben Bernanke.

Instead, the Fed managed to establish currency swap lines with various foreign nations, under the guise of supplying them with dollars. This need for dollars arose partly as a result of the actions of the Fed, in sequestering Eurodollars in July, and partly as a result of the multiple credit default events which triggered over $2.5 trillion worth of selling in the stock and commodities markets, as 50 to 1 leveraged players were forced to cover about $50 billion worth of credit default insurance obligations.

In truth, the Fed needs the foreign currency more than the foreign central banks need dollars. The Fed is using its new foreign currency resources, in part, to control the value of the dollar, and to insure that U.S. bailout bonds are sold for the highest possible prices at the lowest possible long term costs. Anyone who buys long term Treasury bills is going to lose a fortune of money in the long term.

The Fed has also taken a number of steps beyond those already discussed to restrict aspects of the normal money supply which most strongly affect exchange rates. For example, they only allowed “currency in circulation” to rise by $33 billion in aggregate, while at the same time increasing foreign reverse repurchase agreements to reduce foreign availability of dollars by $30 billion, and reducing the “other liabilities” category dollar availability by another $7 billion. Since it is likely that “other liabilities” involve foreign held dollars, this resulted in a net deficit of $4 billion on foreign exchange markets, as compared to September, 2008.

All these actions, taken together, have supported the dollar overseas, and led to a breakdown of the commodities markets. The adverse effect of a paradoxically rising dollar has been especially severe in dollar dependent commodity producing nations, such as Ukraine.

The net effect is that the U.S. dollar, in spite of terrible fundamentals, is now King of the Currencies once again, at least temporarily. The rising value of the dollar happens also to support naked short sellers of gold and silver, on COMEX, and these are old friends of the Federal Reserve. Supply and demand ultimately determine the price of gold but, in the shorter term, it is inversely tethered to the dollar. When the dollar is artificially high, gold prices will often plunge artificially low.

But, in short, the Fed currently has gained complete control over the value of the dollar. It can now adjust and micromange the dollar on a day-to-day basis. All it needs to do is open and close the “dollar spigot.” When they want the dollar to rise, the Fed can reduce the number of sequestered dollars. When they want it to fall, they simply ease up, releasing dollars into the financial markets. There is only one problem. Real investors are fleeing the stock market, and stock indexes are becoming more and more dependent upon government cash in order to avoid collapse.

People are liquidating holdings in mutual funds, and redeeming against hedge funds at a fantastic rate. This has created heavy downward pressure on stock prices. If the DOW falls below 8,000 for any significant amount of time, most big American insurance companies will be forced to recognize huge losses on their portfolios, and will become insolvent. Insolvent insurers, like insolvent banks, must be closed by their regulators as a matter of law. Obviously, mass insurer bankruptcies would be yet another major destabilizing slap in the face to an increasingly unstable economy.

The Fed now has only two ways to stop this. One is by brute force. It can buy securities directly, through its primary dealers, thereby supporting and pumping up stock prices. It has done a lot of that in the past few weeks, but this method is highly inefficient and costly. It is better to catalyze upward market movement rather than force it. Catalysis of markets involves opening up the money spigot a bit, allowing some of the sequestered funds to bleed back into the system. This allows the stock market to rise or stabilize naturally, as the equivalent of inflation is created mostly in the stock market without substantial bleed through. At the same time, however, opening the money spigot reduces the value of the dollar and causes gold prices to rise. Rising gold price adversely affects COMEX short sellers who are, as previously stated, old friends of the Federal Reserve.

Gold buying enthusiasm, everywhere but at the COMEX, is at record levels, whereas stock market investing appetite is low. For this reason, when the Fed tried to constrict the money supply on Monday, it caused more damage to the stock market than to the price of gold. Gold declined by over 5%, but the S&P 500 collapsed by over 9%. The next day, the Fed eased up on the money supply spigot, allowing the dollar to fall and the stock market to reflate. If the Fed repeats this performance over and over again, stock investor psychology will be seriously harmed. Withdrawals from mutual and hedge funds will accelerate. The stock market will sink at an uncontrollable rate, and the world will surge onward toward Great Depression II, much worse than the first. At some point, there will be nothing the Fed can do about it, no matter what manipulations it attempts. Hopefully Ben Bernanke is aware of the dangerous nature of the game he is playing.

The Federal Reserve must now make a tough choice. In the past, Federal Reserve Chairmen may have felt it necessary to support regular attacks on gold prices to dissuade conservative people from putting a majority of their capital into gold. Now, however, the world economy needs much higher gold prices in order to devalue paper money, not against other currencies in a "begger thy neighbor" policy, but against itself. This can jump start the system. If the Fed continued to support gold price suppression, that would collapse the stock market far deeper than they can afford, most insurers will end up bankrupt, and there will be no hope of avoiding Great Depression II.

I think Ben Bernanke is aware of this. Gold shorts will be abandoned, to avoid financial catastrophe. In commenting, I take a practical view, accepting what appears to be so, without passing judgment on the acts and omissions of the last 21 years.

Anyone who reads the written works of our Fed Chairman knows that Bernanke’s long term plan involves devaluing the dollar against gold. This is the exact opposite of most prior Fed Chairmen. He has overtly stated his intentions toward gold, many times, in various articles, speeches and treatises written before he became Fed Chairman. He often extols the virtues of former President Franklin Roosevelt’s gold revaluation/dollar devaluation, back in 1934, and credits it with saving the nation from the Great Depression. According to Bernanke, devaluation of the dollar against gold was so effective in stimulating economic activity that the stock market rose sharply in 1934, immediately thereafter. That is something that the Fed wants to see happen again.

It is only a matter of time before gold is allowed to rise to its natural level. Assuming that about half of the current increase in Fed credit is eventually neutralized, the monetized value of gold should be allowed to rise to between $7,500 and $9,000 per ounce as the world goes back to some type of gold standard. In the nearer term, gold will rise to about $2,000 per ounce, as the Fed abandons a hopeless campaign to support COMEX short sellers, in favor of saving the other, more productive, functions of the various banks and insurers.

Revaluation of gold, and a return to the gold standard, is the only way that hyperinflation can be avoided while large numbers of paper currency units are released into the economy. This is because most of the rise in prices can be filtered into gold. As the asset value of gold rises, it will soak up excess dollars, euros, pounds, etc., while the appearance of an increased number of currency units will stimulate investor psychology, and lending and economic output will increase, all over the world. Ben Bernanke and the other members of the FOMC Committee must know this, because it is basic economics.

Many venerable names in banking agree, although none have gone so far as to take their thoughts to the natural conclusion. Both JP Morgan Chase's and Citibank’s analysts, for example, are predicting a huge rise in the price of gold. That is interesting because GATA has come up with fairly compelling evidence that JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and HSBC (HBC) may have been big COMEX naked short sellers in the past.

Goldman Sachs (GS) is also a huge bullion bank, which allegedly is heavily involved in downward gold price manipulation. However, this month, both HSBC and GS took lots of deliveries of gold from COMEX. Given the size and bureaucracy at such firms, it is certainly possible for the majority of traders to be entirely honest, while others, at the same firm, may be totally corrupt.

More important, however, than dwelling on the accuracy of conspiracy theories is the fact that huge international banking firms normally do not take metal deliveries from futures markets. They normally buy on the London spot market. The fact that they are demanding delivery from COMEX means one of two things. Either the London bullion exchanges have run out of gold, or these firms are finding it cheaper to buy gold as a “future” than as a spot exchange.

Smart traders at big firms may be buying on COMEX to sell into the spot market, for a profit. This pricing condition is known as “backwardation”. Backwardation is always the first sign that a huge price rise is about to happen. In the absence of backwardation, there is no rational explanation as to why HSBC, Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Goldman Sachs, and others are forcing COMEX to make large deliveries.

The fact that this backwardation is hidden from the public eye is not surprising. In spite of the ostensible existence of a so-called “London fix”, 96% of all OTC transactions are secret and unreported. The transactions happen solely between two parties, and are done opaquely, in complete darkness. The current London fix may well be just as fake as the bank interest rate reports that comprised LIBOR proved to be, just a few months ago.

It won’t matter much if you purchase gold at $750, $800, $850, $900 per ounce, or even much higher. All of these prices will be looking extraordinarily cheap in a few months. The price of our pretty yellow metal is about to explode, and it is probably going to soar, eventually, to levels that not even most gold bugs imagine. COMEX gold shorts will be playing the price a bit longer, in an attempt shake out some remaining independent leveraged longs. Once that is finished, however, and it will be finished soon, the price will start to rise very quickly.


The problem however, is the same, the writer alludes to "the Fed and Short Sellers are old friends" but that proves exactly...-0-...and that is a part of the reason why I have not bought Gold as of yet, the market is murky murky murky.

What if the Dollar retains it's strength, even though it is merely the sickest patient in the Cancer Ward? The gains in Gold since 2002 could disappear, and perhaps as likely to, as they are to double yet again.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on December 04, 2008, 03:37:16 pm
James Conrad (never heard of him) has an essay at SeekingAlpha.com called The Manipulation of Gold Prices (http://seekingalpha.com/article/109210-the-manipulation-of-gold-prices).  While I've always been skeptical of the gold price manipulation conspiracy theory, he does make some interesting points about Helicopter Ben's fondness for FDR's moves on gold, which included a substantial devaluation of the dollar in terms of gold.  It also included confiscation, which Mr. Conrad doesn't discuss.

Mr. Conrad forecasts a gold price of $7,500 to $9,000 per ozt.  If correct, he points out that it doesn't much matter if you pay $750 or $900 today. 

He also claims huge physical delivery of Comex future contracts.  I've seen speculation that December contracts would have higher than normal calls for delivery, but the numbers he quotes are astonishing.  He also claims that major bullion banks are among those taking delivery.

If these reports are substantiated, it means a significant shift in the gold market. 

As I've always said, if the price manipulation conspiracy is real, it is great for us small fry, as it gives us the opportunity to buy gold at low, low prices.  When the market overcomes the manipulation, as it always does, the upside potential is very, very large.

Got gold?

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on December 04, 2008, 03:40:35 pm
Padre,

It looks like our posts were made almost simultaneously.  You've copied the article I linked.

Mr. Conrad makes some extraordinary claims.  That requires extraordinary evidence.  I'll be looking - numbers as huge as he quotes can't stay secret for long.  I'd also like to learn a bit more about Mr. Conrad.

In the meantime, I'm going to turn over my sofa cushions and see if I can find any more FRNs to trade for gold.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on December 04, 2008, 03:53:48 pm
Padre,

It looks like our posts were made almost simultaneously.  You've copied the article I linked.

Mr. Conrad makes some extraordinary claims.  That requires extraordinary evidence.  I'll be looking - numbers as huge as he quotes can't stay secret for long.  I'd also like to learn a bit more about Mr. Conrad.

In the meantime, I'm going to turn over my sofa cushions and see if I can find any more FRNs to trade for gold.

Peace,

Silver

The deliveries story is true:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7577.html

Quote
This past Friday, Nov. 28, 2008, was first notice day for delivery of the December COMEX [a division of NYMEX] gold and silver futures contracts which trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The chart appended below shows that on Friday, 8,600 gold futures contracts @ 100 ounces per contract [and 3,040 silver futures contracts @ 5,000 ounces per contract] were delivered. To try to give some perspective to these numbers the previous delivery month for gold futures was October, 2008 when there were 11,554 deliveries for the entire month – a “big” number by historical standards

The best way I can describe my view on Gold is things have not collapsed far enough as of yet to change the idea from "buy a commodity" to "buy gold as an inflation hedge"..Gold has not yet turned it's Ph from positive buy, to negative defensive buy IMO.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on December 04, 2008, 03:57:17 pm
My   $.02-
 I think it boils down to the fact that a lot of people have taken their money out of the stock market and are being told by "experts" to buy T-bills and other government-backed securities. I have heard this advice on three radio shows in the last month. I would not investflush my money away that way, because as  everyone could see, if only they would, the government is as bankrupt as the wall street banks they are "bailing out". IMHO, the public is buying "securities" and holding cash. The idea of buying gold or silver is foreign to most of them. If inflation hits high gear soon, as I believe it will, the price of precious metals will rise dramatically. How high ? I don't have a clue. But if you have any SAVINGS, or retirement money, I would buy some gold or silver with it, as a hedge against inflation or even hyper-inflation. I would NOT buy gold or silver with the grocery money, as there may be many ups and downs in the price, even though the long-term trend will be IMHO,  way up.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Alton Speers on December 05, 2008, 08:21:52 am

The best way I can describe my view on Gold is things have not collapsed far enough as of yet to change the idea from "buy a commodity" to "buy gold as an inflation hedge"..Gold has not yet turned it's Ph from positive buy, to negative defensive buy IMO.

Still, whether + or -, the best course to protect your wealth is to buy gold. As history shows, silver will also "step up" and play a significant role as a currency for day to day transactions. If the loss of confidence penetrates deeply enough there will be no paper currencies used anywhere in the world. At that point commodities of any type will be what all the world will seek. Basics, such as water, food, common metals such as copper, iron and aluminum, materials like lumber and wood products (plywood, OSB, etc.) will be the most commonly sought of all goods. It's true that you can't eat gold or silver but they will be most useful in acquiring genuine foodstuffs.

After the Conrad article it might be worth your time to read this article by Jim Willie: http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2008/1204.html  It touches on gold as well as offering a big dose of what's happening with the fed and with paper.

Stepping back for a broader perspective it's becoming increasingly clear that the entire world is on the brink of a very major change. I'm talking change equal to or exceeding the collapse of Rome. Money, finance, energy, production and all the other components that are aggregated to define the word "economy" are not only the basis for the institutions of the world, more importantly it, "economy", is the basis for what is generally understood to be civilization. Not only the west but the whole world will be impacted by this change as there is  no place on earth where the west has not reached, embraced and entangled itself in trade, in commerce, in thought, in philosophy and any other thing that commonly travels with trade.

It's been said that chance favors the prepared. Being prepared for what's ahead means having gold and silver in your possession prior to such a global change. As pointed out, at today's prices gold and silver are at near give-away prices compared to what they will be in the near future. Got gold? If not, there really is no time like the present to get some.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: byron mc on December 05, 2008, 09:47:16 am
Quote
Not long ago, this 45-year-old Alabama cattle farmer and electrician drove his Chevy into Montgomery, stopped at the bank and withdrew $8,000 from his CD account—all in $20s. That was the day the Dow Jones fell 777 points.

Back on the ranch, Mr. Latham placed the bills in Ziploc bags, sealed them inside a watertight container, and stuck them in a hole dug in a remote corner of his property.

Mr. Latham says he knows that if the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation takes over his bank, he will probably be able to get his money out, but he is not sure how long that could take. Now he can get his hands on “cold, hard cash” anytime he wants, he says. Latham says the $8,000 is an insurance policy against economic instability. “I’m hedging my bets,” he says.

 Call it what you will—“insurance policies,” “rainy day funds,” “get-out-of-town money”—all across America people are beginning to stash emergency cash, gold coins and silver bars. The way this economy is going, it’s probably a good time to be a shovel salesman.

Quote
What does it say about the economy when people put more trust in their backyards than in banks? Isn’t America supposed to be the financial capital of the world?



Quote
The widespread shortage of bullion across the United States (also in Canada, Australia and elsewhere), for example, is a clear indication the economy is deteriorating. It is also a sign that faith in the U.S. economy is breaking down.

In times of economic stress, investors seek the perceived safety of precious metals, shunning paper currencies that politicians can create at a click of a button to “stimulate” economies. And right now, investors are seeking that safety in record numbers.

Many coin shops and bullion dealers report drastically reduced supplies (if inventory is available at all) and very long wait lists. Earlier this year, in a shocking announcement, the U.S. Mint suspended gold sales for its American Eagle 1-ounce coin. Then the following month it suspended sales of its only other major gold product, the pure gold American Buffalo coin.
Gold and especially silver on eBay is selling for a whopping 140 percent over spot prices in some cases. California Numismatics, one of the larger precious metals dealers in the U.S., is showing zero inventories for many bullion products.

 Some of the gold is going to Europe. For the first time since the early 1980s, France has become a net investor in gold. Remember, it was France not trusting the U.S. dollar and asking for payment in gold that helped initiate a run on the greenback during the 1970s, which led the U.S. government to unlink the dollar from gold.

European central banks may now be hoarding gold too. Analyst Julian D.W. Philip says Germany and Switzerland, two of Europe’s largest gold holders, will sell virtually no gold this year. The German Bundesbank recently slammed the door on gold sales, essentially saying it was a strategic asset not to be squandered and that it was an “important factor for the confidence in the stability of the euro.”

Around the world, Russia, China, Middle East oil exporters and many other countries are also scaling up their gold reserves. Saudi Arabia purchased an astounding $3.5 billion worth of gold over a two-week period in November.

Guns, Safes and Treasuries: America’s Top Sellers
December 2, 2008
http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=5725.4074.0.0


(For information on why a rising gold price is a bad omen for the economy and the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency, read “Gold Price Warning Signs.”)
http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=4721.2988.0.0
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on December 06, 2008, 06:47:56 am
The deliveries story is true:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7577.html

Quote
This past Friday, Nov. 28, 2008, was first notice day for delivery of the December COMEX [a division of NYMEX] gold and silver futures contracts which trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The chart appended below shows that on Friday, 8,600 gold futures contracts @ 100 ounces per contract [and 3,040 silver futures contracts @ 5,000 ounces per contract] were delivered. To try to give some perspective to these numbers the previous delivery month for gold futures was October, 2008 when there were 11,554 deliveries for the entire month – a “big” number by historical standards

Something doesn't add up here. One curiosity is that I cannot locate historical delivery reports or warehouse stock reports, only today's. Perhaps I need to search some more.

Comex has 2,918,028 ozt of "registered" gold (http://www.nymex.com/media/Gold%20Stocks.xls) (.xls file), meaning a warehouse reciept has been issued.  This is gold that can be traded on the futures market and can potentially be taken in physical delivery.  The December 5 delivery report (.PDF) shows a cumulative total of 12,164 contracts, or 1,216,400 ozt of gold, demands for delivery.  That's certainly a big number, nearly 42% of the registered stock.  If all that gold left the vaults, it would be a big deal.

But the article quoted above notes 11,554 deliveries for October.  It seems unlikely that all of that gold left the vaults, or we'd have seen similar alarms raised in November.

It seems to me that one could take delivery of a contract, then leave the gold in the vault, where it is safe.  It belongs to you, but you don't trade the warehouse reciept, or you turn in the reciept and turn the gold into "eligible" stocks (5,601,840 ozt shown in the warehouse report) that aren't traded.

I admit I don't know that much about COMEX trading and deliveries; I never trade gold.  It took me a few hours of research just to learn how to read the delivery report.  GC = Gold contact (100 ozt), SI = Silver contract (1,000 ozt), HG = copper contract (25,000 lb).  DEL = short positions "stopped", which now needs to deliver gold, while ACC = long positions who issued delivery notices.

The DEL and ACC figures must (and do) exactly match; there is a long for every short.

Without past month's delivery reports, I can't tell if 12,000 delivery notices is a lot or typical.  Without past warehouse stock reports, I can't tell if gold has been leaving the vaults.

It may be as simple as some big players deciding the market is too volatile for profitable trading, and are taking their profits and waiting for a better opportunity to sell the gold into futures contracts.  The price for a February future is just $752.20 (http://www.nymex.com/gol_fut_cso.aspx), less than the current spot price of $754.30.  Who would sell gold in the future for less than it is worth now, unless you thought the price was going to drop a lot? 

On the other hand, the condition when a future price is less than the spot price is called "backwardation."  It is generally a sign of shortages in the underlying commodity.  It means buyers are willing to pay more to have the commodity NOW rather than sometime in the future.  That might happen if you thought the price was going to drop or if you were worried that you couldn't get any in the future.  Presently the gold futures are in backwardation for January, February, and April.  This is unusual.  It could be a signal that the shortages in small coins and bars are spreading to larger products as well. 

As I said, I don't really know enough to have an informed opinion.  The stuff I can find on the web about this situation doesn't pass my smell test for "well informed."  I'll certainly be paying closer attention to gold futures; clearly something is happening.

These are strange and interesting times. 

Peace,

Silver

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on December 06, 2008, 09:45:28 am
One of the more thoughtful articles I've seen on the subject lately,

Is It Time to Buy Gold? (http://seekingalpha.com/article/109400-is-it-time-to-buy-gold?source=article_sb_picks)

The answer is complicated unless you don't already own gold.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on December 06, 2008, 12:05:31 pm
Without past month's delivery reports, I can't tell if 12,000 delivery notices is a lot or typical.  Without past warehouse stock reports, I can't tell if gold has been leaving the vaults.

I've learned two more facts:

"Delivery" means the gold changed ownership, rather than rolling the contract forward to a future date.  It doesn't mean the gold left the vault, or the registered pool of gold.

I also learned that on 12/28/2005, the registered pool was 4,754,627 ozt (http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/kirby/2005/1229.html), compared to today's total of 2,918,028 ozt.  The eligible pool was 2,423,794 ozt, compared to 5,601,840 ozt today. 

The total amount of gold in the COMEX vaults has increased from 7,178,421 to 8,519,868 ozt in the past 3 years, but the amount registered and traded has dropped by 1,836,599 ozt. 

It does seem that traders are taking gold off the futures market.  There is still no proof of an impending default, but I'm still learning here.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on December 07, 2008, 12:20:56 pm
Silver:

I sent your post to Gene Arensberg who follows the COMEX weekly. I thought he might be of some help.

Here is what he wrote me:




Quote
David,
 
He's pretty much got it right.  11,554 or 12,164 contracts for delivery is a big number, but not enough to cause a run by itself.
 
I'm traveling and short on time tonight, but if you haven't seen Fekete's latest, look here:
 
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1228499200.php
 
It's a little hypish, but it's worth reading.
 
Eligible just means it is stored there.  Not necessarily available for delivery.  It can be converted to registered, but only by the holder of the certificate.
 
You'll find this interesting.  Here's the percentage of the commercial net short position held by the 3 US banks in gold as of Dec 2:
 
 

 
That's ridiculous, but this is even more so.  It's the 2 banks percentage of all the commercial net short positioning on silver:
 

 
And people wonder why silver is in backwardation?
 
Two banks against the rest of the market essentially.  It's really only one bank doing the driving, JPM.   
 
I'll have more on that a little later on...
 
Gene

The attacments he sent me are below and should speak for themselves. I hope this is of some help.

BR/DS




The deliveries story is true:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7577.html

Quote
This past Friday, Nov. 28, 2008, was first notice day for delivery of the December COMEX [a division of NYMEX] gold and silver futures contracts which trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The chart appended below shows that on Friday, 8,600 gold futures contracts @ 100 ounces per contract [and 3,040 silver futures contracts @ 5,000 ounces per contract] were delivered. To try to give some perspective to these numbers the previous delivery month for gold futures was October, 2008 when there were 11,554 deliveries for the entire month – a “big” number by historical standards

Something doesn't add up here. One curiosity is that I cannot locate historical delivery reports or warehouse stock reports, only today's. Perhaps I need to search some more.

Comex has 2,918,028 ozt of "registered" gold (http://www.nymex.com/media/Gold%20Stocks.xls) (.xls file), meaning a warehouse reciept has been issued.  This is gold that can be traded on the futures market and can potentially be taken in physical delivery.  The December 5 delivery report (.PDF) shows a cumulative total of 12,164 contracts, or 1,216,400 ozt of gold, demands for delivery.  That's certainly a big number, nearly 42% of the registered stock.  If all that gold left the vaults, it would be a big deal.

But the article quoted above notes 11,554 deliveries for October.  It seems unlikely that all of that gold left the vaults, or we'd have seen similar alarms raised in November.

It seems to me that one could take delivery of a contract, then leave the gold in the vault, where it is safe.  It belongs to you, but you don't trade the warehouse reciept, or you turn in the reciept and turn the gold into "eligible" stocks (5,601,840 ozt shown in the warehouse report) that aren't traded.

I admit I don't know that much about COMEX trading and deliveries; I never trade gold.  It took me a few hours of research just to learn how to read the delivery report.  GC = Gold contact (100 ozt), SI = Silver contract (1,000 ozt), HG = copper contract (25,000 lb).  DEL = short positions "stopped", which now needs to deliver gold, while ACC = long positions who issued delivery notices.

The DEL and ACC figures must (and do) exactly match; there is a long for every short.

Without past month's delivery reports, I can't tell if 12,000 delivery notices is a lot or typical.  Without past warehouse stock reports, I can't tell if gold has been leaving the vaults.

It may be as simple as some big players deciding the market is too volatile for profitable trading, and are taking their profits and waiting for a better opportunity to sell the gold into futures contracts.  The price for a February future is just $752.20 (http://www.nymex.com/gol_fut_cso.aspx), less than the current spot price of $754.30.  Who would sell gold in the future for less than it is worth now, unless you thought the price was going to drop a lot? 

On the other hand, the condition when a future price is less than the spot price is called "backwardation."  It is generally a sign of shortages in the underlying commodity.  It means buyers are willing to pay more to have the commodity NOW rather than sometime in the future.  That might happen if you thought the price was going to drop or if you were worried that you couldn't get any in the future.  Presently the gold futures are in backwardation for January, February, and April.  This is unusual.  It could be a signal that the shortages in small coins and bars are spreading to larger products as well. 

As I said, I don't really know enough to have an informed opinion.  The stuff I can find on the web about this situation doesn't pass my smell test for "well informed."  I'll certainly be paying closer attention to gold futures; clearly something is happening.

These are strange and interesting times. 

Peace,

Silver


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on December 07, 2008, 02:51:51 pm
Hollywoodgold,

Thanks for checking; it's good to know that I'm not completely off the mark.

The news about just a few banks dominating the gold and silver markets has been out for a while.  It is rather stark.  I remain skeptical of price manipulation conspiracies (which your friend does not seem to claim).  One or two banks specializing in PM futures is no surprise; it is a small, highly specialized, highly volatile market.  Amateurs routinely lose their shirts in this cutthroat arena.  That doesn't mean it is rigged, just that the traders are very good, know more than amateurs ever will, and aren't afraid to use that knowledge to clip the wings of new pigeons.  Some of the clipped cry "foul," but it is no different than an optimist walking into a serious poker game.  The outcome is all but certain, and no cheating is required.

That doesn't say there isn't any cheating.  At the end of a credit/debt boom there is always corruption and theft on a scale that surprises most observers, but only in hindsight.  We see the signs all around us.  But even outright cheating and theft doesn't equal a conspiracy, much less a long-term, successful one such as are alleged by some.

Doug Casey, who is as knowledgeable and informed about PMs and PM trading as anyone, publishes a free (registration required) newsletter Casey's Daily Resource Report (http://www.caseyresearch.com/casey-services/free-publications/daily-resource-plus/).  In today's version, he quotes an trader from Jim Sinclair's Mineset site (http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2008/12/05/hourly-action-in-gold-from-trader-dan-24/)

Quote
"market trading has slowed to a crawl as “more and more longs throw in the towel and close things out for the year.”

So even people who are highly suspicious of Comex do not see an imminent default, but rather traders who are pulling out of the market.  After the holidays are over, most of them are likely to return.  Whether or not they are willing to sell their gold into the futures market remains to be seen.

Peace,

Silver
 

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on December 08, 2008, 11:55:12 am
Highlighting from 1st para of Fedeke article (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1228499200.php):

gold
went to backwardation for the first time ever in history
. The facts are as
follows: on December 2nd, at the Comex in New York, December gold futures
(last delivery: December 31) were quoted at 1.98% discount to spot, while
February gold futures (last delivery: February 27, 2009) were quoted at 0.14%
discount to spot. (All percentages annualized.) The condition got worse on
December 3rd, when the corresponding figures were 2% and 0.29%. This
means that the gold basis has turned negative, and the condition of backwardation
persisted for at least 48 hours. I am writing this in the wee hours of December 4th,
when trading of gold futures has not yet started in New York. [my bold]
[/list]
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on December 08, 2008, 03:30:12 pm
Trader Dan Norcini, the man who made some astute comments regarding the delivery demands on Comex, makes some equally thoughtful remarks (http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2008/12/05/trader-dan-comments-on-antal-feketes-recent-article/) about Prof. Fekete's article.  Follow the link for full details.

The summary is that the "backwardization" is about $4 per ozt, and it disappears if you include storage and carrying costs.  If there were real backwardization, traders would sell a million ounces of gold today knowing they can simultaneously buy a contract to have that gold delivered back to them in a month or three for $4 less.  That locks in a guaranteed profit of $4 million, so traders would instantly wipe out any backwardization by trading it until the future price rises.

But when you include real costs, the profit disappears.  That's why no one is taking the deal.  Trader Dan pointed out earlier that what is happening at Comex is a collapse in overall trading.  Longs (who own the gold) are just folding their hands and leaving the gold in the warehouse until a better time for trades comes along.

So its not a case the Comex is about to default and traders are willing to pass up sure-fire profits because they are afraid they won't get their gold back.  The total amount of gold in the Comex warehouses has increased, but the fraction being traded in the futures market has decreased.  People are deciding to hold onto their gold.  In times like these, that makes a lot of sense.

While Antal Fekete is a great commentator and I respect him, he does get a bit shrill from time to time.  What is happening is certainly unusual and bears watching, but I'm not ready to cry "Red Alert!"  I have no doubt that we will someday look back on these days with amazement, but I'm not so sure that December 2 is the day that will live in infamy.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on December 08, 2008, 03:32:16 pm
Highlighting from 1st para of Fedeke article (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1228499200.php):

    Red Alert: Gold Backwardation!!!



I read the article, but the term "backwardation" means nothing to me, as well as the term "contango"- being the name for the condition opposite to "backwardation"
:huh:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on December 08, 2008, 03:45:44 pm
See http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=1083.msg254318#msg254318 for the short version of backwardation,

see Trader Dan's Comments on Antal Feteke's Recent Article (http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2008/12/05/trader-dan-comments-on-antal-feketes-recent-article/) for more in-depth discussion.

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on December 08, 2008, 04:10:20 pm
Silver- we posted about the same time. Your post helped to clear it up. Thanks.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on December 08, 2008, 06:18:04 pm
...
..., but I'm not ready to cry "Red Alert!"...

Danke.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on December 09, 2008, 10:48:51 pm
And now $455/oz gold predicted...


Quote
http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2008/December/8/Horrific-gold--dump---Is-this-guy-for-real-Thom


Blowing in the wind...

DS
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on December 09, 2008, 11:54:17 pm
And now $455/oz gold predicted...


Quote
http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2008/December/8/Horrific-gold--dump---Is-this-guy-for-real-Thom


Blowing in the wind...

DS

I think a drop in Gold prices is possible Hollywood, right now people are happy to put money into Treasuries that are earning negative interest, until that money shifts to Gold, the price could drop a bit.

As I mentioned, the Ph has not shifted from + to - as of yet, when money flows into Gold, that will be the sort of final nail in the Internationalism coffin, it will mean trade and investment will be entirely defensive in nature..IMO
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on December 10, 2008, 06:14:33 am
Another conspiracy theorist.  Yawn.  I don't doubt that there are conspiracies, and market interventions.  I just doubt that they last very long, or work very well.  Let's face it, the people who are supposed to be carrying out these conspiracies aren't very bright.  They wouldn't last 5 days in the free market.  If it weren't for the power of their offices, backed up by very many men with guns, they'd be washing dishes or sweeping floors. 

I rather hope he's right, and gold does drop to $455.  I've been buying the dips since gold was $300.  If it took a big dip, I'd find a way to make a big buy.

The difference between my outlook and conspiracy theorists is that I understand and believe in basic economics. Unlike this physicist in love with his spreadsheet models and mystical calendars, I see forces and trends at work that govern all markets and economies, always and everywhere. 

Has the US done anything to make the dollar more valuable?  Anything that will promote healthy business growth, a return of manufacturing?  Anything to encourage savings?  Lower the price of houses until supply and demand are once again in balance?  Has the government eased the burden of regulations on small and large business?  Has it got control of its spending?  Has it reduced taxes? Has it stopped spending $1 Trillion a year supporting an overseas empire that makes ever more enemies for us to fight?  Has it figured out how it will pay for all its many promises? 

To ask these questions is to answer them.  So I know where the price of gold in dollars must eventually go, not because I know anything about gold, but because I know enough about dollars.  I don't know when, but I know what is going to happen.  If there are successful conspiracies to drop the price of gold in the interim, it creates a great opportunity for all of us small fry to buy low.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Lightning on December 10, 2008, 09:25:08 am
And wouldn't ya know it, the spot gold price is up $30.00 to $805.60 as of this posting.

Of course, the way the markets have been lately, that coulda been engineered as a profit-taking window before the planned drop to the $455 area...

Who the heck knows???  I'd like to have the chance to get more gold around $450, though!
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Alton Speers on December 11, 2008, 06:35:28 am
Looks like there's a bit of disagreement between Mike "Mish" Shedlock and Antal Fekete (pronounced similar to "spaghetti") on the subject of gold backwardation. Here's Fekete's response: http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/fekete121008.html

Fekete does have the better argument if his assumptions are correct. The actions of people are, at times, most difficult to predict. Given the magnitude of the shift that seems to be coming in ALL human affairs I tend to believe what Fekete is saying here.

While I'm at it, here's a little glimpse into what Europe is dealing with: http://www.newsweek.com/id/172613
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on December 11, 2008, 07:10:47 am
Most of the backwardation disappeared with yesterday's big price move.  This morning, spot is still rising.

If Prof. Feteke's analysis was correct, I would expect bullion to be leaving the COMEX vaults.  Instead, yesterday's warehouse stock report (http://www.nymex.com/media/Gold%20Stocks.xls) shows the arrival of 10,000 ozt of registered gold.  It wasn't taken out of eligible stocks; it looks like someone drove a truck to the Brinks warehouse with 100 gold bars inside.

It's true that backwardation in gold is rare, and temporary.  Prolonged, significant  backwardation means futures traders are not locking in guaranteed profits by selling their physical gold today and buying it back in the future for less.  But as mentioned previously, carrying costs and other costs means that a few dollars isn't enough to make a profit, and it is also harder than it looks to simultaneously sell high and buy low.  The difference often disappears in a matter of hours, and the trade can't be completed.

I suspect this is one of those times.  We shall see.  No matter who is right, times like these certainly call for holding as much physical gold in your personal possession as you can.


Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Alton Speers on December 11, 2008, 08:21:27 am
I see gold is going up. Even more interesting is that the dollar appears to be moving toward the floor. Over the past couple of months when the dollar starts moving down it's immediately caught and pushed up again. It's now been trending down for 5 days. I'm wondering if the worst of the deleveraging is past... OTOH, with the Fed considering issuing it's own debt I'm wondering if the Fed and PPT are just about maxed out with what they consider they can reasonably get away with.

You may be right. It could be that Fekete "jumped the gun" on the backwardation. Market stress due to deleveraging could have been enough to extend the typically short term backwardation of gold. Gold price could also be responding to the layoffs at Rio Tinto (14,000).
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on December 11, 2008, 08:30:40 pm
Ran across this article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/3703565/Fear-triggers-gold-shortage-drives-US-treasury-yields-below-zero.html

Quote
Peter Hambro, head Peter Hambro Gold, said the data reflects a "remarkable" shift in the structure of the market. The rush to safety reflects a mix of fears about the fragility of world finance and concerns that the move towards zero interest rates could set off an inflationary surge further down the road, and possibly call into question the worth of some paper currencies.

The near paralysis in the "repo" markets may prove to be no more than pre-Christmas jitters as banks square their books

Hmm...it appears that there is a gulf between the "retail" Gold buyer, and the Banking House Gold Buyer, and that is a huge difference, the Banking House is simply hedging a bet, no harm, no foul, the "retail" investor, Joe Average has not yet fled to Gold as a safe haven.

Could one of our Precious Metals Gurus try and sketch out how large, in terms of dollars, a rush to safety in Gold would be if Joe Middle Class began liquidating other assets and started buying and investing in Gold?

For example the NYSE is still worth several trillion dollars, the Gold Market is much smaller then even 1,000 points of loss of value in the NYSE in terms of market cap for listed companies..

(Tip of the hat to JWR for the article)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on December 12, 2008, 04:57:42 am
(H)ow large, in terms of dollars, a rush to safety in Gold would be if Joe Middle Class began liquidating other assets and started buying and investing in Gold?

It's possible, perhaps likely that we are watching this unfold right now.  If Joe Middle Class starts buying gold, it won't be 400 ozt good delivery bars that cost more than the average home mortgage.  They will want bullion coins and bars.  These will be snapped up until the supply falls, at which point the premiums for 1 ozt bullion coins will rise for 2-4% to 8-10% and more, in some instances much more.

Sound familiar?

Dealers and private mints will respond by purchasing gold bars, then refining, alloying (in some cases), rollling, punching, polishing, and stamping them into coins.  This takes time.  Government mints, which generally have more capacity, will do whatever their masters think will serve their goals, which are generally not the same as the desires of consumers.  The US Mint has greatly reduced its production of coins, refusing to produce even 1/3 as many as they did in 1999 for the Y2K scare.  The Perth Mint has gone to 3 shifts and 24x7 production, but stopped taking orders because its backlog now extends into Februrary.  One response is honest.

Mints and dealers have no way to know how long the present high premiums for small gold coins will last.  Eventually the premiums will almost certainly decline to historical levels.  The "market window" for making a quick, large profit on buying 400 ozt bars and minting 1 ozt coins could shut at any time.  This would provide a powerful incentive to get large bars now, rather at some time in the future.  The incentives might be large enough to drive gold futures into "backwardation," a rare condition (for gold) in which future delivery can be purchased for less than the price of gold for immediate delivery. 

Big gold holders can exploit backwardation by selling their bars now and buying future delivery for a lower price, getting a guaranteed profit.  This will limit the amount and duration of backwardation.  It willl persist only as long as higher than normal premiums on small coins result in a premium on immediate delivery gold.

In summary, if Joe Middle Class starts moving into gold, premiums on small gold bullion coins and bars will rise, and shortages will occur.  The premiums will rise until supply and demand balance.  If still more people move to gold, the price will move higher still.  The differences between the prices for big bars and small coins may get large, but only for a little while; several market mechanisms work to keep them relatively close together.

How high can the gold price go?  That depends entirely on demand. The supply of gold is essentially fixed.  How many middle class purchasers does it take?  That depends on how much they are willing to pay.  Prices are set on the margin, where the last, most determined buyer meets the first, most willing seller.  Right now that price is $900 or more for a 1 ozt coin, higher still if buying only 1, and/or a certain type is required, like an Eagle.  Buy a kilo bar, and the price falls to $845 per ozt.

Perhaps I haven't provided the answer you want, because you asked how large a rush, in dollars, would look.

The article mentioned a recent WGC report of 382 tonnes for investment gold last quarter, double the level last year.  382 tonnes is about 12.6 million troy ounces.  At an average price of $850 that represents about $10 billion.  So relatively small movements towards gold in a $66,000 billion world economy can change the market.  A big move will send the price of gold higher than any of us can imagine, becuase a big move means the end of the US dollar.

Peace,

Silver



Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on December 12, 2008, 05:52:11 am


So 10 Billion would cause a large jump in gold prices?

Thanks Silver.

A 66 Billion dollar market in Gold tells me that Gold as an investment vehicle is greatly unappreciated/underutilized.

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on December 12, 2008, 08:47:43 am
Another sign of millions of ordinary folks moving some of their money into gold would be all-time record prices.

Like in the UK yesterday; gold sold for £552 an ounce, the highest level since 1717, when records were first kept.

A 66 Billion dollar market in Gold tells me that Gold as an investment vehicle is greatly unappreciated/underutilized.

You're starting to sound like a gold bug!  ^_^  Seriously, while the uninformed use the term "gold bug" derisively, the truth is that
1) Some people see the truth, or lack thereof, behind our present circumstances; and
2) Buy low sell high sounds good, but is not so easy.  Buy when everyone else is selling, then sell when everyone else is clamoring for more.  The low and high parts will take care of themselves. 

Gold (and silver) is certainly unappreciated.  But that is the collective judgment of billions of consumers.  The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.  So I don't buy gold as an investment, with the expectation that I'm going to make a huge profit when the market finally starts to appreciate gold.  I buy it because I know its value cannot go to zero, the way some stocks I have owned have done.  If the market shifts towards gold before I need to sell any, so much the better.  But I sleep better each and every night knowing that a chunk of my life's wealth is close at hand, safe from governments and banksters and other frauds.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on December 12, 2008, 01:37:37 pm
Another sign of millions of ordinary folks moving some of their money into gold would be all-time record prices.

Like in the UK yesterday; gold sold for £552 an ounce, the highest level since 1717, when records were first kept.

A 66 Billion dollar market in Gold tells me that Gold as an investment vehicle is greatly unappreciated/underutilized.

You're starting to sound like a gold bug!  ^_^  Seriously, while the uninformed use the term "gold bug" derisively, the truth is that
1) Some people see the truth, or lack thereof, behind our present circumstances; and
2) Buy low sell high sounds good, but is not so easy.  Buy when everyone else is selling, then sell when everyone else is clamoring for more.  The low and high parts will take care of themselves. 

Gold (and silver) is certainly unappreciated.  But that is the collective judgment of billions of consumers.  The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.  So I don't buy gold as an investment, with the expectation that I'm going to make a huge profit when the market finally starts to appreciate gold.  I buy it because I know its value cannot go to zero, the way some stocks I have owned have done.  If the market shifts towards gold before I need to sell any, so much the better.  But I sleep better each and every night knowing that a chunk of my life's wealth is close at hand, safe from governments and banksters and other frauds.

Peace,

Silver

Silver:

Even though there has been record retail buying all over the world, my Gold Awareness Tracker is at about the same level as where it was in November of 07. It has just turned up over its down trend line so this move may have some strength as we think it should given "current events". I am curious to see if it will move parabolically this time or on a linear slope.

The size of the market is as you stated very small relative to stocks, bonds and real estate. With the enormous amount of concentrated fiat around the globe, there could easily be a multiple of Hunt-like "brothers" that could soon wake up to golds values. Unlike 1980 and the Hunts' attempt to corner the silver market, current large concentrations in fiat are widely held by other nations' people with a long history of holding gold as a store of wealth and protection from government debasement.

Some of those countries include India, China, the Trucial States, Saudi, Lebanon, Turkey, Oman, Germany, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and on and on. When the soy sauce hits the fan this time, there is no telling how many of these recently urbanized populations will get gold fever as the writing contrasts more deeply with the wall.

I think silver will behave similarly. It is commonly said that silver is an industrial metal.  Personally, I believe that this is a case of "it'll be different this time" thinking. Silver has been money as long as gold and perhaps longer. Old habits die hard.

DS


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on December 12, 2008, 05:53:44 pm
Another sign of millions of ordinary folks moving some of their money into gold would be all-time record prices.

Like in the UK yesterday; gold sold for £552 an ounce, the highest level since 1717, when records were first kept.

Well, a few things stand out about that Silver, Britons still do pay a passing mention to sound money, and the various cultural mixes in the UK, Indians both Sikhs and Muslims have cultural traditions coming from India that Gold is a hedge and store of value.

There are no such traditions in the US...as of yet, not on an individual level especially among Jane Middle Class.


Quote
You're starting to sound like a gold bug!  ^_^  Seriously, while the uninformed use the term "gold bug" derisively, the truth is that
1) Some people see the truth, or lack thereof, behind our present circumstances; and
2) Buy low sell high sounds good, but is not so easy.  Buy when everyone else is selling, then sell when everyone else is clamoring for more.  The low and high parts will take care of themselves. 



Perhaps, gold is fluctuating so much right now, and funds are limited, there is no practical dollar cost averaging option available, so when or if I move some hard earned money into Gold, I have to have a feel for the market so I do not make a couple of hundred dollar mistake.

At the moment, I'm pretty much convinced that Gold prices are being manipulated, and I don't see when or if that will end anytime soon.

In that sense, Silver is much more stable.

Quote
Gold (and silver) is certainly unappreciated.  But that is the collective judgment of billions of consumers.  The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.  So I don't buy gold as an investment, with the expectation that I'm going to make a huge profit when the market finally starts to appreciate gold.  I buy it because I know its value cannot go to zero, the way some stocks I have owned have done.  If the market shifts towards gold before I need to sell any, so much the better.  But I sleep better each and every night knowing that a chunk of my life's wealth is close at hand, safe from governments and banksters and other frauds.

Peace,

Silver

A bit of both for me, I like the idea of buying low, selling high, then buying more on a dip, that to me seems to be the prudent way to invest in gold or silver, and acquire more without digging into one's own pocket all the time...the trade should sustain itself more or less.

Different philosophies Silver

Pacem.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on December 13, 2008, 09:04:15 am
Most of the backwardation disappeared with yesterday's big price move.  This morning, spot is still rising.

If Prof. Feteke's analysis was correct, I would expect bullion to be leaving the COMEX vaults.  Instead, yesterday's warehouse stock report (http://www.nymex.com/media/Gold%20Stocks.xls) shows the arrival of 10,000 ozt of registered gold.  It wasn't taken out of eligible stocks; it looks like someone drove a truck to the Brinks warehouse with 100 gold bars inside.

...

I suspect this is one of those times.  We shall see.  No matter who is right, times like these certainly call for holding as much physical gold in your personal possession as you can.

The tale grows more interesting.  Backwardation is gone as of December 12, as shown in the gold future's price report.

However, 90,915 troy ounces were withdrawn from the Brinks vault registered stock yesterday.  That's 25% of the registered gold in the Brinks COMEX vault, and 3% of all the registered gold available for trading gold futures. Using Friday's closing spot price, that's about $75 million in gold.  It was withdrawn from the CONMEX stock, not moved into the eligiable pool.

A total of 105,840 ozt was added to Scotia Mocatta vaults, but as eligiable stocks, not registered.  It's impossible to tell from these figures if any of that addition came from the truck(s) leaving the Brinks warehouse.

It looks like January may be a very interesting month.  I expect the wheels to come off sometime in 2009, but predictions are hard, especially about the future.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on December 18, 2008, 06:10:37 am
I've never paid much attention to COMEX warehouse reports before, so I can't be sure what I see now is unusual, but it certainly looks strange.

Since December 4, the amount of registered gold (available for trading on the futures market) in the Brinks warehouse has declined 40%, or 84,946 ozt.  That's about $74 million at this morning's spot price. 

A 40% drawdown is remarkable, but what I find particularly curious is that all of the withdrawals are from Brinks.  It is the 3rd largest of the 4 Comex gold warehouses, and with 131,604 ozt remaining holds much less than Scotia Mocatta with 955,128 ozt, or HSBC at 1,706,699 ozt.

So gold is leaving the warehouses in significant quantities, but only one of them.

Curious.

Peace,

Silver
Title: 1933 Gold Confiscation Executive Order
Post by: byron mc on December 23, 2008, 09:55:49 am
https://notesforinvestors.com/images/la_gold_confiscation_order_1933_page_1_dec_03-08.jpg

History to repeat?



EDITED to remove photo link from self loading.
My browser automatically sized it to fit within the browser window so I was not aware how large a file the image actually was. sorry guys...
the url is above.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bill St. Clair on December 23, 2008, 10:19:45 am
That's a kinda big image. All three pages of the FDR's anti-"hoarding" executive order are at https://notesforinvestors.com/LA_Dec_03_08-01.html
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Claire on December 23, 2008, 10:23:32 am
That's a kinda big image. All three pages of the FDR's anti-"hoarding" executive order are at https://notesforinvestors.com/LA_Dec_03_08-01.html

Yikes, yes. Thank you, Bill. I was going to post to say I couldn't even read that beastie on the screen of my laptop without endless, tedious scrolling. And people on dialup must be tearing their hair out waiting for it to load.

Claire
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on December 23, 2008, 12:35:43 pm
Confiscation is a possibility. IMHO, the government has several options, including:
1) De-value the dollar.
2) Suddenly announce that all dollars will be void and will be exchanged for the new currency (Ameros ?)
3) Buy gold and back the (dollar, Amero ?) currency partially or fully with gold. This would be very expensive, and drive the price of gold to an estimated $5300/oz if partially backed, or $50,000/oz or more if fully backed. Unless, of course, the government confiscates all non-jewelry gold, and pays an arbitrarily low price such as say, $35/oz as FDR did. This saves the government having to pay the rightful owners market price for the loot that they steal. Unlikely ? I think not. They did it before and they could do it again. It's their modus operandi,  used every day.
That is one reason that many people prefer silver.
Title: the USA buy gold to back a currency idea
Post by: byron mc on December 23, 2008, 12:50:46 pm
3) Buy gold and back the (dollar, Amero ?) currency partially or fully with gold. This would be very expensive, and drive the price of gold

LOL.
What are they going to pay for it with?
Or are the Chinese going to basically back our next currency ?
Why not cut out the middleman and have the Chinese UST-Bond holders insist on the USA start using Yuan...?

The U.S. economy is the largest national economy in the world so that wouldn't work.

then the question is raised as to what will be the NEXT world reserve currency?
(not precious metals)

The Euro, the Yuan ?


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on December 23, 2008, 01:09:35 pm
That option is under consideration by economists as we speak.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bill St. Clair on December 23, 2008, 04:50:51 pm
Yikes, yes. Thank you, Bill. I was going to post to say I couldn't even read that beastie on the screen of my laptop without endless, tedious scrolling. And people on dialup must be tearing their hair out waiting for it to load.

Just for chuckles, I transcribed the poster, making the HTML look as close as I could to the layout of the original. It's at http://billstclair.com/fdr-gold-confiscation.html, linking to my own copies of the images. Unlike the 750K of the poster image, my HTML is less than 9K. Very dialup friendly.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: byron mc on December 23, 2008, 05:33:41 pm
Quote
On August 15, 1971 the final thread holding the dollar to gold was cut by R.M. Nixon. On that day the US dollar became a 100% faith-based currency. It is now a fully fiat currency. Fancy toilet paper.
Alton Speers, August 27, 2004
https://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=1867.msg22251#msg22251



Quote
By 1971 French President Charles de Gaulle ? and other European allies ?
had become thoroughly annoyed with America.

Quote
Actually back then the American government was committed to printing
only as many dollars as they had gold to back. But the pressures of
Vietnam and social spending began to strain this commitment. When the
French suspected that there were more dollars than gold, they rebelled. De
Gaulle sent a French battleship to New York to take delivery of gold? a
very direct way to redeem French-held dollars. Within days the British
made the same demand, claiming $3 billion in gold from Fort Knox.

President Nixon was furious. And his response was rapid. Four days later,
America unleashed 'The Nixon Shock' ' dollars would no longer be
redeemed for gold; and trade barriers would be used even against allies. In
one announcement, America tore up the rules of the game. In charge of
American policy was the reputedly 'tough but charming' Texan John
Connally.

Quote
It was quite simple: 'It's our currency' said Connally 'but
it's your problem'.  This was not a message Europeans wanted to hear. At
the time, there was no decent alternative to the dollar - in spite of a flurry
of ideas about a new role for the yen or deutschmark or even the creation of
a new international money - "butter money" - linked to the value of
commodities such as wheat, butter, sugar, and rubber. Fast forward to
today, it?s a very different world. The Europeans now have their own
armoury. They?ve built their own monetary system, and developed their
own shared currency. This process has been closely watched by David
Marsh, investor and former Financial Times correspondent. He's calling
his forthcoming book 'The Euro: The Emerging Global Currency'.

The very large accumulation of foreign reserves by the Chinese
government has put them in a very strong position to influence the dollar if
they made a decision to shift their assets to other currency denominated
assets. That could be very destabilising for the US economy, putting
pressure on the dollar and eventually interest rates. But many people feel
that China doesn?t have an interest in pursuing that type of extreme action
because by doing so it would reduce the value of its own assets because the
dollar would weaken and the value of those dollar assets would then fall, so
it would be basically hurting its own pocket book.

Quote
In the longer term,
America may well pass on the mantle of the reserve currency to China.
Although most commentators say China?s not ready for that yet
,

ANALYSIS  THE DOLLAR AND DOMINANCE
TRANSCRIPT OF A RECORDED
DOCUMENTARY, Oct.23, 2008
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/programmes/analysis/transcripts/23_10_08.txt



Quote
When in 1970-1971 foreigners demanded payment for their dollars in gold, The U.S. Government defaulted on its payment on August 15, 1971. While the popular spin told the story of "severing the link between the dollar and gold", in reality the denial to pay back in gold was an act of bankruptcy by the U.S. Government. Essentially, the U.S. declared itself an Empire. It had extracted an enormous amount of economic goods from the rest of the world, with no intention or ability to return those goods, and the world was powerless to respond- the world was taxed and it could not do anything about it.
from Ted Nielsen's post of the article from gold-eagle.com
'The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse'
https://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=8426.msg103412#msg103412


August 15, 1971 until 2008.
37 years and FRNs are still the most powerful notes on the planet.  backed by faith. 

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: dogsledder54 on December 23, 2008, 11:57:45 pm
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1196605589.php
This is old- but points out that the "Patriot Act" enables confiscation.
-- Posted Sunday, 2 December 2007 [/b]| Digg This ArticleDigg It! | Source: GoldSeek.com

Federal agencies have indicated that the accumulated trade debts of the United States have reached $9 trillion.  This can be explained once one realizes that outsourcing of production jobs and manufacturing has gathered speed over the last twenty years to a point where we don’t make more than a nominal percentage of our own necessities.  These debts result in accumulated “TRADE DEFICITS” which are discussed in the daily papers.  What is not discussed, however, is how these “trade debts” will ever be paid.  Well, common sense would tell most of us that — they will be paid in some form.

Recently posted in the Federal Register on the internet were regulations listed under the caption of The Patriot Act . . . . At the end of 17 pages you will find legal definitions for “bullion coins” and “rare numismatic coins.”  Strange how the definition of these forms of gold would show up under 17 pages of regulations pursuant to the Patriot Act having to do with identification of persons boarding and de-boarding aircraft and a multitude of other topics.  Once you analyze the situation, it becomes obvious that these regulations were published in this manner, so as to keep the information from the general public and avoid suspicions of confiscation and the resulting objections.

WE BELIEVE THE REGULATIONS WERE PUBLISHED IN THE EXPECTATION OF A SECOND CONFISCATION OF AMERICAN PRIVATELY OWNED GOLD

The purpose of the confiscation is clearly to settle America’s trade debts in an acceptable form.  Keep in mind that Central Banks end up with all of the trade debts via bank deposits in dollars, or, Treasury Bonds, dollar denominated, with no guarantees against loss due to deterioration of the value of the dollar.  Since the dollar has been in a constant downtrend as most Americans realize, Central Banks should not be expected to take all the losses on these transactions without complaint.  Indeed, there are complaints and we believe the complaints have reached fever pitch.  Central Banks no longer wish to accept dollar-denominated assets in payment of trade debts and are demanding American gold.

There is really no other logical mechanism for them to accept payment.  Today, silver is not a monetary asset and neither are any of the other metals such as platinum or palladium.  Only gold can be used for settlement of debts between Central Banks.

“No,” you say! . . . . Such a conclusion is unjustified.  If so, then we ask, how is it that 30,000 retail jewelry stores have been forced to become registered with the Treasury Department over the last two years, since January ‘06, as indicated at their website at www.jvclegal.org.  The Jewelry Trade Association required their members to purchase a “Patriot Act Compliance Kit,” all of which relates to registration — a form of licensing, obviously connected to one of their main lines of business: gold jewelry.

Why is it also thatbullion dealers and gold coin dealers who do $50,000 or more in business a year have also been required to become registered with the Treasury Department as indicated in their printout of April 24, 2007, from their website.  This particular, April 24th printout may or may not still be on the website, but we have copies from that date on file.

There is significant other evidence as well, including the recent confiscation of gold of an organization in Evansville, Indiana, The Liberty Dollar Group, which stirred up some concern about the use of paper money in the United States, and thus, the gentleman who proposed an alternative form of money was put out of business.

In addition, the U.S. Mint, the seller of extremely popular American Eagle series of coins has, as of October 15, at least, terminated all sales of American Eagle gold coins.  By the time you read this, they may have changed their minds again, which, of course, can be reversed after a brief period.  Their mint dealer network may or may not still have the American Eagle series coins in stock, but sooner or later, their stocks will run out and there will be no more gold available in this form.

It is our view that the definition of the antique numismatic coins, given in the Federal Register, indicate the one way to avoid the loss of all physical gold in your hands.  The interpretation of the wording of the regulations can be taken differently by different people.  Our interpretation is that coins that have rarity value at least equal to the bullion value at the time of purchase would logically be deemed legal under these rules.  Since it is not likely that any further explanation of these regulations will be published, this is all we have to go on.  Of course — they are not going to announce the confiscation date ahead of time.

We are frequently asked what our opinion is of the timing, and that is obviously difficult to say, but it would not be amazing to see the confiscation gold within the next twelve months of the extremely unpopular Presidency of George W. Bush.  That means there’s only twelve months to go, if we believe that this evil act will be consummated during his term.  For more information, contact us at Criminal Politics Magazine at 1-800-543-0486 or visit our website at www.criminalpolitics.com

Swiss Financial Services, Inc. Lawrence Patterson, CEO
Title: Treasury Dept. registrations / Gold Recall
Post by: byron mc on December 24, 2008, 08:29:56 am
from the Goldseek.com article Private Joker posted:
Quote
30,000 retail jewelry stores have been forced to become registered with the Treasury Department over the last two years,

Quote
bullion dealers and gold coin dealers who do $50,000 or more in business a year have also been required to become registered with the Treasury Department


The only _OTHER_ reason is that someone may pay for gold products in large amounts of USD FRNs. The Treasury Dept. wants a paper trail for the FBI and IRS for regular criminal money launderers and their favorite: money launderers financing terrorist organizations.

Hell why bother with the US Treasury Dept.?
Why doesn't the Federeal Government just roll gold in with the U.S. Department of Justice's  Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) since you have to 'register' Firearms and Explosives when you purchase them (so they can be confiscated at a later date).
It would seem Gold sales fall under the same restrictions except the buyer [currently] does not need a license to purchase Gold.



 
Quote
According to HR 2417 (Section 374), which became Public Law 108-177 on Dec. 13, 2003:
    (a) MODIFICATION OF DEFINITION- Section 1114 of the Right to Financial Privacy Act of 1978 (12 U.S.C. 3414) is amended by adding at the end the following:
     the Financial Privacy Act was one of the victims of the USA PATRIOT Act (Section 358). Now HR 2417 redefines "financial institution" to match U.S. Code Title 31 Section 5312:
     
    (2) ''financial institution'' means -
    [...] (N) a dealer in precious metals, stones, or jewels;
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2004/0105.html     


Quote
Amendment to the Bank Secrecy Act Regulations --

Requirement that Nonfinancial Trades or Businesses Report Certain Currency Transactions 
AGENCY:  Financial Crimes Enforcement Network ("FinCEN"), Treasury.

ACTION:  Interim Rule.

SUMMARY: This document contains an interim rule amending the Bank Secrecy Act regulations to require that persons who, in the course of conducting a nonfinancial trade or business, receive more than $10,000 in coins or currency in one transaction (or two or more related transactions), file a report of such transaction with the Treasury Department.
DATES:  This interim rule is effective as of January 1, 2002.

oh and no 'structuring' either...
Quote
Example 5.  F, a coin dealer, sells for currency $9,000 worth of gold coins to an individual on three successive days.  Under paragraph (c)(7)(ii) of this section the three $9,000 transactions are related transactions aggregating $27,000 if F knows, or has reason to know, that each transaction is one of a series of connected transactions.
https://www.thefederalregister.com/d.p/2001-12-31-01-31846
also here:


Quote
The U.S. Treasury’s “Gold Confiscation Act” What Does It Mean?
Americans holding gold bullion coins should also be concerned because of the U.S. Treasury’s quiet move in November 2003 to “upgrade” the so-called “nominal monetary status” of the American Gold Bullion Eagle coins, making these coins “redeemable by force” to the U.S. Treasury’s so-called “nominal official value” of gold bullion at $50/ ounce, instead of the actual prevailing “free market value” of gold, when the U.S. Treasury “posts official notification” of its intent to “redeem” gold bullion coins through the nation’s banks.

Nominal monetary status ensures that gold bullion coins are not legal tender even though they have a face value stamped them. They are still not defined as “legal tender.” In order to make them “confiscatable” as it were, it is necessary for the Treasury to upgrade their monetary status.


Quote
Chinese Panda Gold Bullion Coin, which has distorted the spread between Pandas and all other gold bullion coins.
a tiny quirk in the law, wherein the U.S. Treasury cannot call in for redemption, forced or otherwise, gold bullion coins held by U.S. citizens which are denominated, marginally or otherwise, in a foreign currency which is not “Free to Trade” and as such constitutes a “non-convertible currency” by the Bank of International Settlement (BIS). This, in turn, makes the Chinese Gold Bullion Panda Coins, which are issued by the Bank of China, the only officially authorized issued gold bullion coin of a major foreign government, exempt from U.S. Treasury redemption. Why? Because, Chinese Panda coins are denominated in the Yuan, China’s official currency, which is a non-convertible currency, in accordance with BIS’s definition.

Quote
Confiscation is actually the wrong word, it's a Gold Recall. And it will be a punishable crime for any dealer to pay you for your gold. Not only will they NOT pay you for your gold, they will probably turn you over to the authorities for still owning it.
9/29/2008 12:01 PM
Volume 1, No. 3 October 2004
THE OFFICIAL GOLD CONFISCATION THREAD....PG 17 US PATRIOT ACT...READY FOR IT
9/29/2008
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message619840/pg1


Quote
The banks didn't open all the [Safety deposit] boxes in 1933 like you mention or confiscate any gold. The federal government made owning gold illegal and ordered banks to seal boxes. If you wanted your stuff, you had to open it in the presence of a federal official who forced you to sell your gold.

The federal government forcing someone to sell their gold and the banks confiscating it are two completely different things.
-Stein 05-20-2008
https://www.kitcomm.com/archive/index.php?t-17579.html
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Roy J. Tellason on January 02, 2009, 03:58:26 pm
http://www.safehaven.com/article-11453.htm
(Snip)
Link has charts, &c.

Curious, no?

I haven't found the charts yet,  but linked there is this page:

Uncle Sam May Grab Your Gold if You're Not Careful (http://www.merkfund.com/money/authors/richardbenson/2008-12-19.html)

Hmm...


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on January 04, 2009, 07:27:29 am


Quitely, Silver has slowly been gaining some lost ground back, from a recent low of 9.70 to today's 11.50...

If anyone intends on buying a large quantity of Silver, IMO it should be bought now before Silver bumps up to 14.00 or so..

3.00 rise in the price of silver means buying now would add 1 oz of additional silver for every 4.75 oz purchased now..a 20% savings on every ounce....

And to me, one of the most annoying things about purchasing Silver locally is getting whacked with NC's 7% sales tax, that really eats into the margins from trafficking in silver as an investment.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on January 04, 2009, 10:31:38 pm
And to me, one of the most annoying things about purchasing Silver locally is getting whacked with NC's 7% sales tax, that really eats into the margins from trafficking in silver as an investment.

Sigh, take a deep breath and remind yourself that the difference between $10 per ounce and $10.70 will disappear when silver trades at $300 per ounce.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: byron mc on January 05, 2009, 12:29:10 pm
Quote
“We’re seeing a lot more investors,” said Jacqueline Quercia, co-owner of Norwich Rare Coin/Jewelry Exchange, explaining that stock market uncertainty is pushing people to buy precious metals and coins.

“Gold is king,” she said.

Traditionally a hedge against inflation combined with price stability relative to other metals makes gold the hottest item at Vasbro Coins.
“Right now we’re dealing almost exclusively in gold,” said Jeff Vasington, co-owner of the shop on Town Street in Norwichtown.


When gas prices were above $4 a gallon, Vasbro was taking in $10,000 to $20,000 in “scrap” gold and silver every day. Now the shop barely does that in a month, Vasington said.
Jan 03, 2009
http://www.norwichbulletin.com/news/x1621232899/Pawn-shops-profit-in-recession

This is just one shop in the state of Connecticut.
The commenters don't think too highly of the owner though and his $figure claim daily amount months ago...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: byron mc on January 07, 2009, 07:17:18 am
Quote
As a result of the global scope of the recession, there is no country that wants its exchange rate to appreciate.
The clear alternative to the dollar in 2009 is not other currencies but that ancient form of money: gold.
January 5 2009
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5b21dafc-db5a-11dd-be53-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

a nod to the PM fans on here for long outlook thinking...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on January 07, 2009, 07:28:23 am
And to me, one of the most annoying things about purchasing Silver locally is getting whacked with NC's 7% sales tax, that really eats into the margins from trafficking in silver as an investment.

Sigh, take a deep breath and remind yourself that the difference between $10 per ounce and $10.70 will disappear when silver trades at $300 per ounce.

Then one should traffick in Silver to retain more ounces, don't you think?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on January 08, 2009, 03:17:14 am
Then one should traffick in Silver to retain more ounces, don't you think?

I would certainly be thrilled to live in a world of honest silver-based currency.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on February 04, 2009, 06:28:57 pm
Recap:

(http://delanion.com/xg/au00-pres.gif)

From kitco's charts, silver charts are there too. (http://www.kitco.com/charts)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Phssthpok on February 05, 2009, 06:57:05 pm
GOSH, I'm glad my employer denied us the option to invest in a PM fund for our 401k (because some of us might bee too stupid to NOT invest their entire nest egg into one fund, then blame the company for giving them the ability to make their own decisions!). As it is I was limited to accessing only HALF of my fund in a 'loan' to put into silver, only to watch it increase by over 25%  since I invested while the rest of my 401k DROPPED by about the same amount.
(I know, I know....worthless FRN's...but I gotta talk simply so my employers can understand!)
Imagine the calamity that would have ensued had I foolishly opted to invest the entirety of my 401k into a PM fund!! Why... I might have actually come out AHEAD instead of just breaking even!!! :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: gridboy on February 10, 2009, 10:13:28 am

Here's an article about the increased buying of physical gold and gold ETFs.

"The US Mint sold 92,000 ounces of its popular American Eagle coin last month, almost four times that which it sold a year ago and more than it shipped during the whole of the first half of 2007."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/359da604-f6d4-11dd-8a1f-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

gridboy
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on February 13, 2009, 10:45:18 am
Gold rearing its head in The Wall Street Journal:

"So we must first establish a sound foundation for capitalism by permitting people to use a form of money they trust. Gold and silver have traditionally served as currencies -- and for good reason. A study by two economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Arthur Rolnick and Warren Weber, concluded that gold and silver standards consistently outperform fiat standards. Analyzing data over many decades for a large sample of countries, they found that "every country in our sample experienced a higher rate of inflation in the period during which it was operating under a fiat standard than in the period during which it was operating under a commodity standard."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123440593696275773.html

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on February 21, 2009, 11:24:14 am
At LRC (http://www.lewrockwell.com), Bill Bonner says

The United States: The Largest Ponzi Scheme in the World (http://www.lewrockwell.com/bonner/bonner361.html)


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: fledgling on February 23, 2009, 10:12:07 pm
Thanks for posting all this information!

I have been picking some up from multiple sources

American Gold Exchange 

Investment Rarities

American Precious Metal Exchnage

I'll try your guy tomorrow.  Question:  say you wanted to do 100k at one time, would that volume work for you?  I'm unclear on how the amount over spot works...let's say on non-numismatics like the American Eagles for example.  I understand dollar cost averaging but I just don't think we have much time left.

Even if Gold and silver drops at least I won't feel like killing people.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on March 19, 2009, 07:08:02 am
Peter Degraaf has a short history of gold's price and thinks now might be a good time to buy.  He recommends CEF, the Central Exchange Fund, a Canadian closed-end trust that sells shares backed by physical gold and silver bullion stored in bank vaults.  He calls CEF "the best of the best." (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/degraaf/degraaf031809.html)

I agree.  I've been (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=1083.msg14847#msg14847) recommending (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=4352.msg50702#msg50702) CEF (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=14499.msg190893#msg190893) here (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=17181.msg220650#msg220650) at TCF/TMM for 5 years. 

Recently a friend asked me how long my retirement has been delayed by the stock market crash.  My answer: Not one second.  I've got gold, and CEF is the best-performing asset in my 401(k).

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on March 19, 2009, 08:08:57 pm
Time is rapidly approaching to have physical possession.  While I only pay slight attention to gold, over half the silver being traded is unbacked paper. When the music stops, a lot of somebodies will be without chairs to sit on.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on March 19, 2009, 08:27:18 pm
Time is rapidly approaching to have physical possession.  While I only pay slight attention to gold, over half the silver being traded is unbacked paper. When the music stops, a lot of somebodies will be without chairs to sit on.

I think you are 100% correct on that slidemansailor, and at least the UK exchange will annual contracts for metal deliveries.

I bought on the dip, and with the Fed printing money and just creating trillions inflation is going to come, and it is designed to show up, most places I follow think this year we could see hyperinflation.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on March 20, 2009, 09:38:59 pm
The Mother of all Bells (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff032009.html) by Peter Schiff ends where this thread began 5 years ago: Got Gold?

Quote
This week the Federal Reserve finally made clear what should have been obvious for some time - the only weapon that the Fed is willing to use to fight the economic downturn is a continuing torrent of pure, undiluted, inflation. The announcement should be seen as a game changer that redirects the fury of the financial storm directly onto our shores.
[/size]

Quote
Now that the Fed has recklessly shown its hand, the mad dash to get out of Treasuries and dollars should not be far off. The more the Fed prints to buy bonds the less the dollar is worth. Holders of our debt (read China and Japan) understand this dynamic. We must expect that they will not only refuse to buy new bonds, but they will look to unload those bonds they already own.
[/size]

The mad dash for the exits is the part where gold goes to the moon.  Hang on, its going to be one hell of a ride.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on March 20, 2009, 09:44:53 pm
The Mother of all Bells (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff032009.html) by Peter Schiff ends where this thread began 5 years ago: Got Gold?

Quote
This week the Federal Reserve finally made clear what should have been obvious for some time - the only weapon that the Fed is willing to use to fight the economic downturn is a continuing torrent of pure, undiluted, inflation. The announcement should be seen as a game changer that redirects the fury of the financial storm directly onto our shores.
[/size]

Quote
Now that the Fed has recklessly shown its hand, the mad dash to get out of Treasuries and dollars should not be far off. The more the Fed prints to buy bonds the less the dollar is worth. Holders of our debt (read China and Japan) understand this dynamic. We must expect that they will not only refuse to buy new bonds, but they will look to unload those bonds they already own.
[/size]

The mad dash for the exits is the part where gold goes to the moon.  Hang on, its going to be one hell of a ride.

Peace,

Silver

Silver:

No doubt. However, the silver thingy had a very good week and will likely equal or out perform AU. My own view is to be very long silver.

BR/DS
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on April 21, 2009, 07:07:05 pm
via LRC (http://www.lewrockwell.com): as If you own gold, says Gary North. (http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north706.html)
You're a Target of the State

but at GaryNorth.com (http://www.garynorth.com):

as Why Gold Owners Are Targets of the Government (http://www.garynorth.com/public/4857.cfm)

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on April 22, 2009, 12:05:03 am
via LRC (http://www.lewrockwell.com): as If you own gold, says Gary North. (http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north706.html)
You're a Target of the State

but at GaryNorth.com (http://www.garynorth.com):

as Why Gold Owners Are Targets of the Government (http://www.garynorth.com/public/4857.cfm)

    The reason why you are under assault is because you have
    demonstrated by your purchase of gold or a gold-related
    investment that you do not trust the monetary policies of
    your nation's central bank. If you are an American, this
    means you do not trust the monetary policies of the
    Federal Reserve System. You have taken a step that
    confirms your lack of trust in the government and
    its central bank. If you think the government and
    the central bank will sit quietly, while millions of
    citizens buy gold as a way to hedge against gov't and
    central bank policies, you are terminally naive.

AU is just one of the many targets on which they are/will focus so why worry?

Quote
Who is going to win the gold wars? Holders of gold. The big winners will be Indian wives whose fathers gave them a lot of gold as a dowry. The rest of us gold bugs will also do well. The general public will never catch on in time, and by the time that it occurs to even 10% or 20% of investors that they better by gold, it will cost them so much to get into the market that they will not make the kinds of profits that today's gold investors are going to make.

Correct, but that is not just true of gold, it is true of all asset classes that move into a bull market. The "mass" of investors are almost always "wrong", AKA "late". I expect that the retail market will enter gold when it hits something like $2500-3000/oz. The top, in a non-TEOTWAWKI scenario, will likely peak at around $5K/oz, JMHO. An investor that entered in 2000-2001 would realize a 20-25 times return whereas an entry at $2500 may be less than double if you are lucky/smart enough to get out at the top. Good luck.

In a TEOTWAWKI scenario, maybe $10-30K/oz., hard to imagine a rational value. If we experience hyper-inflation the rate could be $1billion/oz. Still, the retail guy will most likely poorly time the entry and exit and get hit. The market almost guarantees this outcome. When the majority are on one side of a trade, it is almost always the wrong side.

I believe this is also generally true of politics.

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 23, 2009, 09:01:13 am
I am in general agreement with Hollywoodgold.  I like Gary North's articles, but he often focuses on minute threats while ignoring much larger ones.  He is also quite short on actionable suggestions for protection from these threats.

Certainly governments hate gold.  But THIS government hates productive citizens of all stripes, business in general, affordable and reliable energy of any kind, medical privacy, and is racing to destroy the last vestiges of free enterprise in the entire economy.  They do this while prosecuting two futile wars and installing their own puppets in the seats of what were once the largest and most profitable corporations in the world.  They are mounting vast, simultaneous assaults the foundations of liberty.  Gold is but one of those assaults, and there is no evidence, none, that this administration is doing any different than the past 4 or 5. 

At best North's essay is old news. I think buying and holding gold and silver is a good idea.  It has been for 6,000 years, and there is no reason to think that will change any time soon.  The fact that it annoys the government to do so only adds to the argument for buying.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: tex703 on April 23, 2009, 03:21:30 pm
I understand that buying gold is common sense stuff and a good investment, but wouldn't it be prudent to also buy silver coins (pre-1964), 10oz silver bars, and junk silver coins that are at least 90% silver.  I'm not bashing gold, but silver is cheaper to buy.

Also, what about 5 cent Nickels??  They are 75% Copper and 25% Nickel.  Would they be worth anything with the collapse of fiat money.  Mr. Rawles suggests stocking up.

My 5 cents...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 23, 2009, 03:59:12 pm
Nickels were token coins; even after 96 years of nearly continuous debasement of the currency, a Jefferson nickels has a melt value of only $0.03.  See http://www.coinflation.com/coins/basemetal_coin_calculator.html

A token coin has value because the tokens can be exchanged for the item of value.  In 1932, one could exchange 400 nickels for a $20 gold coin, even though the melt value of the nickels was far less than $20. 

Mr. Rawles may be right that people will want small denomination coins, and nickel will serve.  Historically, gold, silver, and copper are used.  Nickel's value is very much driven by industrial demand, in a TEOTWAKI situation as I understand Mr. Rawles envisions, industrial demand would plummet and the value of a nickel might be less than the value of an old copper penny.

I don't claim to know.  Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

Silver is a fine hedge, but you can't store very much wealth without it getting damned heavy and inconvenient.  A $1000 face value bag of silver dimes will give you 10,000 perfectly useful silver coins, but they will cost you over $15,000 and weigh about 40 lbs.   Think about a real survival situation; I'd like to have at least 6 months income saved, 12 months would be better.  If I'm making $40,000 a year, 6 months savings in silver would weigh about 50 pounds, a year over 100 lbs.  You can hold $40,000 worth of gold coins in one hand, assuming you can hold 3 pounds.

I've been holding off on silver purchases of late because of the huge premiums.  I used to buy $1000 face value bags for less than melt value, now you can expect to pay $2.50 over spot, a premium of 20%.  Gold coins can be found for as low as 5% premium.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bill St. Clair on April 23, 2009, 04:12:13 pm
I'm buying silver instead of gold because I don't like that a tiny coin, smaller than a silver dollar, is worth $900, an amount that I can only spare a few times a year, and that is much too easy to lose. Silver, on the other, hand, I can purchase in small quantities every month, which means I actually do it.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Risasi on April 23, 2009, 04:49:35 pm
What about the volatility we've seen in the silver market the past 13 years or so? That is the thing that has made me shy away from silver.

Gold seems much more reliable. But I do understand why you would choose silver, it's a little more analog. Regardless, a precious metal is going to retain value far better than wheelbarrow paper. I have a little silver, so I'm not entirely knocking it.


---
There is another option for you St. Clair. Fernando Aguirre's (AKA Ferfal) experience lead him to use gold jewelry. Specifically simple gold bands and rings. Usually 14k stuff. He has stated many of the money changers would treat all unmarked gold and coinage as 14k stuff, unless it was marked. Heck, sometimes even if it was marked. They simply trade based upon weight.
When I read his stuff it was enough to give me pause. He's got a point. What if all the coinage just doesn't garner the demand because the value is too high? Not everyone will be able to move around the full value of even one coin. And I wouldn't put it past some enterprising younger scoundrels to start pumping out fake coins. Especially if gold bartering increased in demand.

Granted I'm in the US. Minted coinage is easily verifiable in the here and now. We know what's in all the coins, value-wise.  So, I think Ferfal's experience isn't quite what we would see US side. Still I think he's got a point.

---

Personally I keep a little of everything, but I don't come to rely on any of it. Neither do I want to stack up vast piles of gold, silver, FRN's...or even bullets/cigarettes. It makes one a target. Riches have eagles wings and fly off when you least expect it. That's why I half expect them to try and destroy the gold market, somehow. It's the only why to exert real control over everyone.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on April 23, 2009, 11:06:27 pm
I understand that buying gold is common sense stuff and a good investment, but wouldn't it be prudent to also buy silver coins (pre-1964), 10oz silver bars, and junk silver coins that are at least 90% silver.  I'm not bashing gold, but silver is cheaper to buy.

Also, what about 5 cent Nickels??  They are 75% Copper and 25% Nickel.  Would they be worth anything with the collapse of fiat money.  Mr. Rawles suggests stocking up.

My 5 cents...

I would have to say "yes", it makes sense to buy silver at today's prices. Silver is "correct" in that 3 years ago, you could buy pre-64 at melt or occasionally below melt. Today, 20-25% over spot is the market. I see this a little differently in that I believe spot, is 20-25% lower than market. Market is still undervalued based on historic ratios of 16-19 oz/ag per oz of au. Using a silver spot of 12.25 multiplied by the 1.2 (current premium) you get a silver oz value of $14.70 which is 1:61 in terms of gold to silver. That is about 25% of the historic ratio, plus or minus.

If you want to do an end run, buy a COMEX 5000-OZ silver contract and take delivery. Have it delivered to a refiner such as Johnson Matthey or NW Territorial Mint and for about 6% you can have the 5000-OZ converted to 100-OZ bars, 50 of them.  Sell them on EBAY and you'll get at least the market premium or more. That transaction would net you about $10K.

The gold versus silver debate is nonsense. It is like arguing whether fruit or vegetables are what you should eat. The answer is both. I see gold as high concentration preservation and silver as low concentration but high liquidity. If gold were at $2400/oz and silver at a ratio of say 20, then at today's exchange rate, a pre 64 quarter would be worth about $21 and a dime about $8.50. A dime would buy you a very decent lunch and a not so bad dinner. These are reasonable/useful denominations for every day use and IMO opinion, make owning "junk silver" a must.

Quote
Gold coins can be found for as low as 5% premium.

True, but if you buy "out of favor" coins, you can buy at a premium of 1/2 that. Recently, the Mexican 50 Peso coin, was selling at 2.6% over spot on Apmex. The 50 Peso coin is not very popular. I believe it is because it is 1.204 OZ in weight which on a per coin basis makes it seem to be expensive relative to other coins which have 1 oz of gold content. IMO, when the market discovers gold, these premiums will be reduced as more and more people chase value. I believe the net result will be that the Peso will increase in value relative to other gold coins.


Quote
He has stated many of the money changers would treat all unmarked gold and coinage as 14k stuff, unless it was marked. Heck, sometimes even if it was marked. They simply trade based upon weight.

This is interesting and runs contrary to my own experience. Most of the world considers 14K gold to be "junk". 14K is common in the US but not elsewhere. In Europe, the Middle East and Asia, the "minimum" is 18 and generally 22K is used for jewelry. The jewelry I bought in the ME and Asia is all 22 & 24. They scoff at 14 because of the cost and difficulty of refining it into "the real thing".


 
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 24, 2009, 05:30:43 am
My experience regarding jewelry is similar.  Only in the US is 58.5% gold (14 k) labeled as "gold."  Everywhere else, 22k is standard, some cheaper stuff at 20k and 18k.

US jewelers will try and tell you 22k is "too soft" for jewelry.   :bs:  When gold coins circulated, they were 22 kt, like today's eagles and krugers.  Circulation is very tough, much rougher service than jewelry.

Today gold bullion is taxed as a collectible. You pay a heavy tax on any profits made in selling gold bullion. In olden times, there were sometimes taxes on gold coins.  People then took a fancy to heavy gold chains, bracelets, and necklaces, often 24 k gold.  Each link was soft and easily twisted on or off the chain.  Each link weighed some convenient amount, like 0.2 ozt.  No special tax on jewelry.  Any jewelers in this forum?

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 24, 2009, 05:46:05 am
While it is certainly true that the historic ratio between the price of gold and silver ranged from 15:1 to 19:1, for most of that history both silver and gold were in heavy demand as circulating money.  The demand for industrial use was much smaller than it is today.  Today there are essentially no circulating silver or gold coins, so the money demand has vanished.  There is an investment demand, but no longer a demand for money.  I hope that changes, but it may not in my lifetime. 

Today silver is primarily an industrial metal, with growing investment demand.  Were silver to become money again, I would expect the ratio to go even lower than historic norms, because today there is a much greater industrial demand in addition to any investment and monetary demand.

There is probably more upside potential in the dollar price of silver than in gold.  Were I a speculator or trader, I would probably be more interested in silver. The big price swings create far more opportunities for profitable trades, and the greater upside means potentially much higher profits.

I am not a speculator or trader, at least not in precious metals.  I have gold and silver as my savings.  I sleep just fine at night, thank you, unlike many of my contemporaries who have seen their 401(k) and IRA accounts decimated in the past 18 months.  I liiterally haven't lost a single dime; all 10,000 of those silver coins are still in a safe place.  The dollar value of the metals goes up and down. I don't particularly care, except that I don't like getting less metal for my dollars, whose supply to me has not gone up so much.  My gold and silver is the same.

The difference in mindset between having one's savings in PMs and hoping to make a dollar profit in PM trades will have a big impact on whether you favor gold over silver, and whether you care about the premiums.  There's no right or wrong here; nothing wrong with saving and nothing wrong with trading and speculation.

I suspect the day is not far off when the dollar is literally worthless.  As it heads off the cliff, it will be harder for speculators to calculate their profits.  But savers will always know how much gold and silver they own.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on April 24, 2009, 05:54:35 am
Correct, but that is not just true of gold, it is true of all asset classes that move into a bull market. The "mass" of investors are almost always "wrong", AKA "late". I expect that the retail market will enter gold when it hits something like $2500-3000/oz. The top, in a non-TEOTWAWKI scenario, will likely peak at around $5K/oz, JMHO. An investor that entered in 2000-2001 would realize a 20-25 times return whereas an entry at $2500 may be less than double if you are lucky/smart enough to get out at the top. Good luck.

In a TEOTWAWKI scenario, maybe $10-30K/oz., hard to imagine a rational value. If we experience hyper-inflation the rate could be $1billion/oz. Still, the retail guy will most likely poorly time the entry and exit and get hit. The market almost guarantees this outcome. When the majority are on one side of a trade, it is almost always the wrong side.

I'm confused, how will gold be worth 10 - 30K in a TEOTWAWKI scenario?  10 - 30K of what?  FRN's that nobody wants?  The only reason I am stocking up on silver coins, bars and rounds is to have an asset to barter with. 
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Risasi on April 24, 2009, 07:24:16 am
Yeah Knobster, I think he is talking about trade value of gold for then current FRN's (or the coming Amero?). Most likely you'll still have to use whatever is common currency to buy stuff in this future hypothetical situation. The point is gold and silver is universal. You can trade it for plenty of stuff, including whatever "money" is circulating.


And guys, I'll see if I can find Ferfal's notes. Maybe I am misremembering gold %.

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on April 24, 2009, 11:16:10 am
Knobster,

A while ago an article was posted that showed how much gold would be worth if
the government decided to back the dollar with gold held at Fort Knox. IIRC, if
the dollar were 100% backed, then the price would go up somewhere around
$10,000 an ounce, because of the relatively small amount of gold, and the huge
amount of dollars floating around.

Keep in mind that this figure was projected at the beginning of the bailout. My
WAG is that with all of the dollars created since then, the figure might approach
twice that -- $20,000 and ounce -- and that's assuming that no more dollar debt
is created, and all of the money created so far does end up circulating in the
economy.

Bear


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on April 24, 2009, 01:25:49 pm
Correct, but that is not just true of gold, it is true of all asset classes that move into a bull market. The "mass" of investors are almost always "wrong", AKA "late". I expect that the retail market will enter gold when it hits something like $2500-3000/oz. The top, in a non-TEOTWAWKI scenario, will likely peak at around $5K/oz, JMHO. An investor that entered in 2000-2001 would realize a 20-25 times return whereas an entry at $2500 may be less than double if you are lucky/smart enough to get out at the top. Good luck.

In a TEOTWAWKI scenario, maybe $10-30K/oz., hard to imagine a rational value. If we experience hyper-inflation the rate could be $1billion/oz. Still, the retail guy will most likely poorly time the entry and exit and get hit. The market almost guarantees this outcome. When the majority are on one side of a trade, it is almost always the wrong side.

I'm confused, how will gold be worth 10 - 30K in a TEOTWAWKI scenario?  10 - 30K of what?  FRN's that nobody wants?  The only reason I am stocking up on silver coins, bars and rounds is to have an asset to barter with. 

I understand your question, I suppose I meant a "Demi"-TEOTWAWKI or maybe a "Monetary" TEOTWAWKI.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 24, 2009, 05:48:19 pm
I'm confused, how will gold be worth 10 - 30K in a TEOTWAWKI scenario?  10 - 30K of what?  FRN's that nobody wants?  The only reason I am stocking up on silver coins, bars and rounds is to have an asset to barter with. 

It's a good point that in a "true" TEOTWAWKI scenario dollars will almost certainly be meaningless and worthless.  But I don't think we need a complete collapse to see some astonishing prices.

Gold closed above $850 for a single day in 1980.  That was not driven by any sort of global panic, rather a more or less minor mania in the gold market, which was even smaller than it is today.  Using the Feds own inflation calculato (http://www.minneapolisfed.org/)r, which almost certainly underestimates their destruction of the dollar, $850 in 1980 would require a price of $2253 today.

That's what a minor disturbance confined to gold bugs has already done, and could certainly do again.  Gold spiking to $5,000 or even $10,000 is certainly possible, but just as in 1980, it could follow the spike with a 20-year bear market.  Timing the peak is almost impossible.

Now consider a dollar collapse.  Not TEOTWAWKI, just an adrupt end to US government bullying and stealing from the poorest people on the planet.  The Chinese start seriously dumping dollars instead of quietly buying massive stockpiles of commodities like they are right now.  The treasury holds a bond auction and no one bids.  Things like that would collapse the dollar but the world would still turn, the lights would mostly stay on.  Commerce and finance would be disrupted for a time but would attempt to return to normal rapidly.

In this hypothetical scenario, trading $30,000 for an ounce of gold might look like a very good trade to someone who hasn't prepared and doesn't have any gold.  There are many dollars held outside the US and all of those people would be rushing to get rid of their dollars as fast as they could.  Most people holding gold wouldn't part with it, but a few will, and the price will quickly be bid up.  It wouldn't last for very long; once it takes $30,000 to buy an ounce, it probably won't be long until the bid hits $60,000, and in a matter of hours or days everyone who is still willing to trade gold for dollars will have done so.  Game over for the dollar and US government hegemony, but not TEOTWAWKI.

We are already well down the path to a hyperinflation, which ends the same way but transfers wealth in different directions than a straight collapse.  Germany showed that a hyperinflation can be stopped by the credible promise to stop printing money, but the US government is growing rather short on credibility.  I suspect that if a hyperinflation gets going, there will be a time when some people will trade $30,000 for a gold coin, but like the dollar collapse scenario, it won't last long.  A hyperinflation would ravage civil society but could still end up short of TEOTWAWKI.

I'm not expecting this to happen and I certainly don't want it; there is no "profit" here, just the final death throes of the dollar.  While life will go on, there will be many gut-wrenching changes and lots of pain and misery all around.    No one can know what will happen, but having gold is good preparation for many scenarios.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on April 25, 2009, 04:41:57 am
While life will go on, there will be many gut-wrenching changes and lots of pain and misery all around.    No one can know what will happen, but having gold is good preparation for many scenarios.

Amen to that.  Thanks to you and Hollywoodgold for all the info.  My poor brain can hardly keep up!

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on April 25, 2009, 11:14:09 pm
While life will go on, there will be many gut-wrenching changes and lots of pain and misery all around.    No one can know what will happen, but having gold is good preparation for many scenarios.

Amen to that.  Thanks to you and Hollywoodgold for all the info.  My poor brain can hardly keep up!



At some point in the future, and it may be far in the future, all will be measured in OZ of gold and silver and not the number of FRN's that will be exchanged in consideration thereof. When this occurs, a hind quarter of beef will be equal to 1/4 OZ of gold. It will likely be soon when international transactions will be measured in gold and silver. Just time...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: tex703 on April 26, 2009, 11:14:48 am
So, here's a question....if it will be measured in ounces of either gold or silver would it be prudent to have your gold or silver melted down and formed into 1oz or 5 oz bars that you can easily trade?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 26, 2009, 02:06:41 pm
Coins command a premium over the spot price of gold because the minted coin is very good evidence of the purity and weight of the gold.

You pay spot price when you buy 100 oz bars or 3 kilo bars, very close to 100 oz.  But to trade those bars they must be assayed, an expensive and time-consuming step.  There are many ways, some of them very good, to fake a gold bar.  Gold-plated tungsten is nearly impossible to detect without very powerful x-ray machinery or cutting open the bar.

A fake coin is a very different manner.  Setting up a coin press is capital intensive and requires specialized knowledge.  That's why the free market prefers gold and silver coins to bars; people who don't know each other can still trust the weight and purity of the coin.

So I would strongly caution anyone contemplating melting down coins for bars.  Melting scrap jewelry is another matter, but again the question of purity comes into play.  Gold bars are traditionally 99.5% pure or better, most American jewelry is barely over 50% gold.  Refining the melted scrap into bullion is another expensive and somewhat toxic project.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on April 29, 2009, 04:44:24 am
But to trade those bars they must be assayed, an expensive and time-consuming step.

Hmm...  Perhaps a good skill to possess in a post-TSHTF society?  I'm ignorant to the process though.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on April 29, 2009, 10:16:12 am
Quote
Hmm...  Perhaps a good skill to possess in a post-TSHTF society?  I'm ignorant to the process though.

Physics is your friend. :D

Every element has a unique density. If you measure the weight of an object while is is immersed in water, and it's weight
dry, and divide the dry weight by the wet weight, you have the object's specific gravity. Comparing the S.G. of the pure
element to that of the test object can be a quick and dirty way to tell whether gold is pure or not. Same for silver.

Bear

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on April 29, 2009, 10:31:45 am
Quote
Hmm...  Perhaps a good skill to possess in a post-TSHTF society?  I'm ignorant to the process though.

Physics is your friend. :D

Every element has a unique density. If you measure the weight of an object while is is immersed in water, and it's weight
dry, and divide the dry weight by the wet weight, you have the object's specific gravity. Comparing the S.G. of the pure
element to that of the test object can be a quick and dirty way to tell whether gold is pure or not. Same for silver.

Bear



Outstanding!  I'm going to test this on some silver coins tonight...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on April 29, 2009, 12:11:49 pm
Here is an interesting link to understanding gold purity with links to testing.

http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasci/chem03/chem03778.htm

Bear

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 29, 2009, 01:44:25 pm
I agree that physics is your friend, but you'd better be damned good friends with physics if you're going to assay gold.  There is a lot at stake, and people have been refining the frauds for thousands of years.

Density is NOT fool proof for gold; tungsten is a 3-figure match (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tungsten) to gold's density (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold).  Gold plating a tungsten bar or coin blank is not only feasible, it's for sale on the web right now (http://www.tungsten-alloy.com/en/alloy11.htm).  It's very hard to detect gold-plated tungsten without extremely powerful x-ray florescence analysis equipment, excellent ultrasound equipment, or trepanning a sample from the bar.

Even coins are not perfectly safe; there are widespread but in my opinion unsubstantiated reports of fake gold and silver coins (http://coins.about.com/od/worldcoins/ig/Chinese-Counterfeiting-Ring/).  Minting coins is a capital-intensive business, and at today's silver prices it's hard to see a way to profit, except by faking collector's "rare" coins. 

Once gold and silver really take off I will be a lot more skeptical about accepting coins from people I don't know.  Bars are already out unless I get them at a Swiss bank. With a certificate matching the serial number on the bar.  An old Swiss bank.  I'm serious.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Who...me? on April 29, 2009, 02:30:35 pm
Correct me if I'm wrong but in a situation where there would be no way for most folks to identify a tungsten cored gold coin and it was then used as payment wouldn't it in effect be as valuable as a real coin. I mean if there was no way to know, like in a SHTF situation what would be the difference if it was accepted as the real deal. 

Of course I wouldn't like to be the one getting shot at if someone figured it out but you get my point.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on April 29, 2009, 02:45:45 pm


s for fake Gold, gravity test work, but most of the old timers I've read about carried small vials of concentrated nitric acid to test for purity or even if the metal in question was in fact gold.

True tungsten may be a partial way to defeat most tests, however creating tungsten cored, gold plated bars is no small thing either.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 29, 2009, 02:46:34 pm
Cut it in half with a pair of tin snips; if it is a real gold coin it will be easy, if it's tungsten, it will be impossible.

Of course, this reduces the coin premium on the coin's value, but if coins are circulating that premium is typically quite small, approximately 1%.  It wouldn't take much suspicion to justify a destructive test.

As to whether it would be as valuable, perhaps it will be accepted a few or even many times, but it is still a fraud.  Counterfeits hurt everyone in the market economy, just as an inflating fed fiat scrip hurts everyone.  Whether or not you get caught does not change the fact that the money is a fraud.  The damage is done by artificially increasing the supply of money and sending incorrect signals about the state of demand, price, and savings in the market economy.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on April 29, 2009, 04:38:04 pm
There might be a simpler, non destructive test to tell a gold coin from gold-over-tungsten.

Take a Canadian Maple Leaf and flip so that your thumb nail strikes it. It will ring.
Now do the same with an American Eagle. It will ring at a higher pitch, even though
it's a slightly larger coin. I think the reason is that the Eagle is 22kt, with additions of
silver and copper, whereas the Maple Leaf is 24kt, and therefore softer.

If the tungsten blank is not same hardness as the coin it's trying to fake, then it will
ring at a different pitch. All you need is a known-good coin to compare it to, and a
good 'ear' to compare them.

Bear

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 29, 2009, 04:56:06 pm
I'm not sure the ring test is practical.  The coin rings at a particular frequency governed by the speed of sound in the metal and the dimensions of the coin. 

The speed of sound in a solid is proportional to the square root of its elastic modulus and inversely proportional to the square root of density. The 22kt coins sounds different than 24 kt because the former is both harder and less dense.  Both the numerator and denominator are changing the speed of sound in the same direction, so there is a noticeable change in tone.

Since tungsten is a near-perfect match for gold in terms of density, the speed of sound in tungsten is differs from gold only by the square root of the elastic modulus.  Tungsten has a much higher elastic modulus and therefore somewhat higher speed of sound than gold. 

That's for a pure metal or uniform metal alloy.  Now wrap a tungsten slug in a relatively thick coating of gold and what do you get?  Damned if I know.  I wouldn't trust a calculation, there's too much at stake and a whole of physics going on. I'd want to try this with a fake and then a real one before I would trust this method.

If I run into enough fakes, maybe I can learn to hear the difference in ring tone.  For now, if I am suspicious, it will be tin snips.  One of the great things about gold, a characteristic that makes it so useful as money, is that gold is fungible.  Two halves of gold coin are worth very nearly as much as the original coin.  Not quite, but close enough.  Heck, an ounce of gold is worth so much I'll need halves for change anyway.   ^_^

Peace,

Silver

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: socalserf on April 29, 2009, 06:48:43 pm
Has anyone used one of these?
The Fisch tool.

http://www.fisch.co.za/home.htm

Too good to be true?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Who...me? on April 29, 2009, 07:05:07 pm
I saw on survivalblog that JWR recommends them as one of the best ways to authenticate coins in a SHTF situation. The belief being that they are easily transportable and a coin would be of a known weight, diameter and thickness.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Mr. Dare on April 29, 2009, 07:07:20 pm
 
Has anyone used one of these?
The Fisch tool.

http://www.fisch.co.za/home.htm

Too good to be true?
  The laws of physics being what they are, I'd say these things would spot all but the most determined fakers of precious metal coins. At 500 bucks for the set though, you would have to spot an awful lot of fakes to pay for the purchase price. I can see where these would be quite handy though.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Who...me? on April 29, 2009, 07:16:14 pm
Has anyone used one of these?
The Fisch tool.

http://www.fisch.co.za/home.htm

Too good to be true?
  The laws of physics being what they are, I'd say these things would spot all but the most determined fakers of precious metal coins. At 500 bucks for the set though, you would have to spot an awful lot of fakes to pay for the purchase price. I can see where these would be quite handy though.

Actually at close to 1 grand an oz for gold if you spotted one gold eagle that was fake you just paid for it.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Mr. Dare on April 29, 2009, 07:23:19 pm
  You are correct sir, I guess I was thinking of more exotic counterfeiting metals which. Lead would be pretty easy to spot I think, but yeah it may indeed be a better deal than I first gave it credit for.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 29, 2009, 08:38:27 pm
Has anyone used one of these?
The Fisch tool.

http://www.fisch.co.za/home.htm

Too good to be true?
I have a set.  They pay for themselves if you find a fake. They can't spot a plated tungsten slug, but they will easily detect lead.  Most fakes will probably be lead or other easily spotted metals.  The bad guys make their money on ignorance, not investment in sophisticated coin presses and plating equipment.


Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on April 30, 2009, 05:06:23 am
Wow... ask one question and the forum goes wild!  Thanks for all the info.  I received a silver eagle in the mail yesterday and I will try the specific gravity test tonight if I have the chance.  (Late night at work yesterday so collapsed in bed early...)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on April 30, 2009, 07:11:37 am
Has anyone used one of these?
The Fisch tool.

http://www.fisch.co.za/home.htm

Too good to be true?
I have a set.  They pay for themselves if you find a fake. They can't spot a plated tungsten slug, but they will easily detect lead.  Most fakes will probably be lead or other easily spotted metals.  The bad guys make their money on ignorance, not investment in sophisticated coin presses and plating equipment.


Peace,

Silver

I have 2 of the 4 sets. Unfortunately, he/they discontinued the 50 peso scale which I would like to have had. They measure thickness, diameter and weight. All must pass or it is a fake or bad mint. I expect that when/if au price gets lofty, a test service will be marketable using the Fisch gauges. Wouldn't plated tungsten weigh more than au and if it were the same thickness it would weigh more than an au coin? I guess the point is it would be very close and therefore be harder to detect since it is 1224#/CFT versus 1204 or only 1.7% heavier. Good catch Silver.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on April 30, 2009, 11:52:25 am
I'm in the same boat, I have two of the four sets and now wish I had purchased all four.  The triple test of thickness, diameter, and weight is pretty good, easy to do, and fast.  I've seen them used at coin and gem shows. FWIW, I don't think they discontinued the gauges; when I bought them he was still living in the US.  I get the impression he invested in the dies and made one production run, and has been selling from that inventory ever since.  If/when gold goes mainstream, other people will surely make and market similar devices.  They are just too useful, and with some competition the frankly outrageous price will drop like a lead slug in water.

The best references I can find (old books) list gold as 1.932 gm/cm3 and tungsten as 1.925.  They are both 19.3 to 3 significant digits rounding; there is only a 0.36% difference. One part in 275.  I doubt the Fisch gauge is up to detecting such a small difference.  Mechanical measurements are hard.  With some investment in a true flat measuring table (thick granite, not very portable) and precision instruments you can make the measurements with sufficient accuracy, but are you willing to reject every 24k gold coin with a ding or a fingernail mark on on side? 

I wasn't too worried about the tungsten ploy until I saw the tungsten-alloy.com website.
(http://www.tungsten-alloy.com/image2/gild.jpg)

The website pretty much says it all:
Quote
Since gold and tungsten bear the similar specific gravity, tungsten materials enjoy the superiority to be the best substitute for the costly metal of gold.

As an old saying goes, Not All That Glitters Is Gold! In details, pure tungsten, in the forms of round disc, plate, sheet, ring, and etc., can be perfectly coated with gold layer with clinquant shine, to replace gold merchandise except it's currency function.
(http://www.tungsten-alloy.com/image2/gild4.jpg)

There's no doubt what they are doing.  The only question is who buys them, how many, and where are they subsequently sold?

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on April 30, 2009, 04:04:12 pm
Silver:

I don't believe that the Fisch would convey the Tungstun forgery because it is slightly heavier meaning the fulcrum would fall conveying the appearance/behavior of au.

Damn, thats a real problem!

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on April 30, 2009, 05:24:51 pm
I think I may be on to something. I went to this site: http://www.webelements.com/
and printed out the physical property data sheets for both gold and tungsten and
found some interesting things.

While it's true that tungsten is close to gold in density, there are big differences in
velocity of sound through the two metals, and their rigidity modulus, which I think
is a measure of how much they will bend under stress.

Idea 1: Sound test.

The suspect coin is placed in a device so that on edge of the coin is in contact
with a transducer which emits a sound pulse, and a transducer on the other side
which records the received signal. A timing circuit measures the time between
the sent and received signals. Sound travels nearly 3x as fast through tungsten
as it does through gold,
so it should take approximately 1/3 the time for the
sound signal to travel across the coin. In fact, with the tungsten ingot coin,
you might get 2 signals: 1 through the center tungsten ingot, and the second
through the gold 'skin' of the fake.

Idea 2: Rigidity test.

The rigidity of tungsten is nearly 6x as great as gold. Place the coin in the device
so that the coin is held flat (horizontally) by one edge. Place a lever arm with a known
weight across the coin so that the fulcrum is on the far edge of the coin from where
it's held. Measure the deflection. The Tungsten coin will only defect 1/6 as much
as the real gold coin.


GoldTungsten
Velocity of Sound1740m/sec5174m/sec
Rigidity Modulus27 GPa161 GPa


What do ya think?

Bear

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on April 30, 2009, 05:43:50 pm
Bear:

Thease are great thoughts, really. My lament was that the Fisch could be "tricked" which is a bad bad thing since a set can fit in your pocket and require no power or other devices. I think the tungstun would have a higher pitched sound (tinny) when dropped on a hard surface but that would be a questionable basis to make certain decisions.


I think I may be on to something. I went to this site: http://www.webelements.com/
and printed out the physical property data sheets for both gold and tungsten and
found some interesting things.

While it's true that tungsten is close to gold in density, there are big differences in
velocity of sound through the two metals, and their rigidity modulus, which I think
is a measure of how much they will bend under stress.

Idea 1: Sound test.

The suspect coin is placed in a device so that on edge of the coin is in contact
with a transducer which emits a sound pulse, and a transducer on the other side
which records the received signal. A timing circuit measures the time between
the sent and received signals. Sound travels nearly 3x as fast through tungsten
as it does through gold,
so it should take approximately 1/3 the time for the
sound signal to travel across the coin. In fact, with the tungsten ingot coin,
you might get 2 signals: 1 through the center tungsten ingot, and the second
through the gold 'skin' of the fake.

Idea 2: Rigidity test.

The rigidity of tungsten is nearly 6x as great as gold. Place the coin in the device
so that the coin is held flat (horizontally) by one edge. Place a lever arm with a known
weight across the coin so that the fulcrum is on the far edge of the coin from where
it's held. Measure the deflection. The Tungsten coin will only defect 1/6 as much
as the real gold coin.


GoldTungsten
Velocity of Sound1740m/sec5174m/sec
Rigidity Modulus27 GPa161 GPa


What do ya think?

Bear


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on May 01, 2009, 06:56:16 am
Those are good ideas, but I would want to test them first.

Remember, a fake will be gold plated.  The plating will have to be relatively thick so the coin can take a pass in the press and show the proper marks, rim, reeding, etc.  It's the combination of gold on the outside with a tungsten core that worries me.  Even if the slug is only 1/3 the total weight it's still a profitable fraud.  I'm sure with appropriate ultrasonic equipment one could detect the difference, but that's expensive gear.  If the fake is of a 24 kt coin like a Maple Leaf or Panda, the soft gold will deform if you try to flex the coin, whether it is real or fake.  I know about the ring of a 22 kt coin, but I don't make a habit of tossing soft 24 kt bullion in the air, or letting it hit the table. If you push hard enough you'll reveal the slug, but now we're getting close to my tin snip test.

Gold plated bars are easier to make; the same physics can be used to detect them, but at the moment I know of nothing as elegant and simple as the Fisch scale that could be used to find fakes.

It's an interesting problem; let's hope it stays academic.  It's still entertaining to discuss possible means of detection.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on May 11, 2009, 12:12:00 pm
Doug Hornig of Casey Research has published an article on fake gold at the 321gold.com website.

All That Glitters is NOT Gold: The truth about counterfeit gold (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey051109.html)

I've been doing some of my own research and may have something useful to report in a few weeks.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on May 21, 2009, 07:56:13 pm
The Turn of the Coin:  GOLD - 2000 to 2009

(http://delanion.com/xg/au00-09.gif)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on May 22, 2009, 06:15:54 am
Great chart, Junker.

Technical traders call the wiggle at the top a "head and shoulders" pattern.  Jim Willie CB has an article on 321gold.com today, Loud Paradigm Shift Rumblings (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie052209.html).  He posts a blow-up 2007-now, shown below.
(http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie052209/2.gif)

Gold is over $950 this morning, clearly a run at $1000 is possible, and who knows how high it will go.  A lot higher than it is now is all I know.

The Point and Figure chart is a favorite among technical traders, it is also suggesting a run at $1000.

(http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$gold,pltad[pa][da][f!3!!]&pnf=y)

Hang on, it may be a bumpy ride!

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on May 24, 2009, 12:19:23 pm
... on 321gold.com today, Loud Paradigm Shift Rumblings (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie052209.html). ...

Interesting set of observations. Although the power shift is on-going,
I don't think any of the players will go to commodity-backed currency.
They too appreciate the theft/power part of fiat.

People need to consider a boycott on all fiat, or shift in and out of
silver/gold as needed. Inflation pays for the conversion fees in less
than a month or two. I'm tempted to minimize land since the yahoos
will just tax it more and more, or convert to a "land conservation" non-
profit.

Interesting times, as they say.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on May 24, 2009, 12:57:50 pm

Thanks for that analysis Silver, the chart looked like a "V" to me, the top, the "head and shoulders" pattern is a term I've never heard before.

I hope people who are deterred by the high price of gold realize the "real" Inflating of the Dollar has not really happened as of yet, the FedGov is still running on the relatively "mild" GWB budget of 2008, when 2009 hits and the Deficit reaches 1.7 trillion (more then likely 3 trillion, they always underestimate) Gold will seem a great value at 1,000.

Silver at 14.50 is a whopping bargain as well, it's recent high was 22.00, when Gold prices itself out of the ability to buy it Silver and maybe things like Palladium will increase in value as the bastard step children of Gold.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on May 25, 2009, 07:11:28 pm
I hope people who are deterred by the high price of gold realize the "real" Inflating of the Dollar has not really happened as of yet, the FedGov is still running on the relatively "mild" GWB budget of 2008, when 2009 hits and the Deficit reaches 1.7 trillion (more then likely 3 trillion, they always underestimate) Gold will seem a great value at 1,000.

I am finally dipping my toe into the golden pond.  I'm still concentrating on silver but when I find a couple extra 100 FRN's I put them towards the glittery stuff.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on May 25, 2009, 07:14:39 pm
I hope people who are deterred by the high price of gold realize the "real" Inflating of the Dollar has not really happened as of yet, the FedGov is still running on the relatively "mild" GWB budget of 2008, when 2009 hits and the Deficit reaches 1.7 trillion (more then likely 3 trillion, they always underestimate) Gold will seem a great value at 1,000.

I am finally dipping my toe into the golden pond.  I'm still concentrating on silver but when I find a couple extra 100 FRN's I put them towards the glittery stuff.

Good knobster, but keep in mind the IMF has a 400 million ton Gold Bomb they are preparing to drop on the world market, that will effect prices in the short term despite the recent run up in prices.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on May 25, 2009, 07:15:47 pm
Good knobster, but keep in mind the IMF has a 400 million ton Gold Bomb they are preparing to drop on the world market, that will effect prices in the short term despite the recent run up in prices.

Sweeeeeet.  Any idea when?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on June 03, 2009, 03:34:19 pm
LRC/blog (http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/027058.html) (Karen DeCoster, June 02, 2009):

Some Major Insight Into the Future of the Dollar, the Depression, Etc.

... "You have to see this." Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co., the
third-largest U.S. life insurer, went out and bought gold. This is a very
significant and telling move on the part of an insurance giant. The
company accumulated $400 million in gold. A quote from the company's
CEO:  "The downside risk is limited, but the upside is large," Zore said. "We
have stocks in our portfolio that lost 95 percent." Gold "is not going down
to $90."
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: khagler on June 03, 2009, 10:00:55 pm
I am finally dipping my toe into the golden pond.  I'm still concentrating on silver but when I find a couple extra 100 FRN's I put them towards the glittery stuff.

I've found that when buying gold it's best to regard it as a way of saving your money that ensures you'll never lose everything you have, as you might with fiat currency. If you spend a lot of time reading about gold on websites, you'll discover that the subject draws crackpots like crazy. Don't buy gold think it's a "great investment" because some loony tunes wrote an article on the web saying that gold would be worth $10,000/ounce next year, buy it because it will never be worth $0/ounce.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: khagler on June 03, 2009, 10:05:49 pm
Good knobster, but keep in mind the IMF has a 400 million ton Gold Bomb they are preparing to drop on the world market, that will effect prices in the short term despite the recent run up in prices.

Sweeeeeet.  Any idea when?

Based on the total amount of gold mined ever as of 2006, and if we assume production per year remains constant at the tonnage mined in 2001 (the most recent years for which I can find figures) and the IMF controls all gold everywhere in the world, it will take until about 155,555 AD for the IMF to have that much gold. In short, don't worry about it.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on June 04, 2009, 12:04:36 pm
I've always said that I buy gold not because I'm sure it is a good investment, but because I'm sure it is not a bad one.

I've bought stocks whose value has gone to zero.  Gold may go up and down in price, but it will never go to zero.

I don't worry too much about the price except to try and buy on the dips.  It's how much metal that counts, not how many FRNs you can get for it.  That will become even more important as the tsunami of newly created dollars washes away all vestiges of their value.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on June 04, 2009, 01:25:12 pm
Good knobster, but keep in mind the IMF has a 400 million ton Gold Bomb they are preparing to drop on the world market, that will effect prices in the short term despite the recent run up in prices.

Sweeeeeet.  Any idea when?

The peasantry is not privvy to that information, the last info nugget was the IMF had petitioned to be able to sell it's gold at the last "summit" and China had offered to purchase the 400 tons but they had not recieved approval to sell it.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/faq/goldfaqs.htm

Quote
Last Updated: May 12, 2009


Strictly limited gold sales (403.3 metric tons) are being discussed by the membership of the IMF as part of a package of expenditure and income measures to put the IMF's finances on a sustainable basis. No Executive Board decision to sell gold has been taken.

Quote
Q. Has the IMF decided to sell gold?


• No Executive Board decision to sell gold has been taken. Under the Articles of Agreement, a decision to sell gold requires an 85 percent majority of the total voting power.

• The United States authorities have informed the IMF that U.S. Congressional authorization by law would be required before the U.S. Executive Director could support a decision for the IMF to sell gold.

• The United States Treasury announced on February 25, 2008 that it will seek authority from Congress for a limited sale of gold, consistent with the Crockett Committee's recommendation. On April 16, 2009, President Obama urged leaders of Congress to support an IMF gold sale as part of a larger package of measures requiring congressional action.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: sharp_shepherd on June 08, 2009, 11:35:10 am
I don't have gold but i have been picking up alot of silver, most of which was last year when i cleaned out the bs saving accounts.  How about that 26+% increase in value last month.  Even at the current prices (which should be going down a bit) i'm still going to continue to buy. 
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on June 24, 2009, 12:20:10 pm
Well, it didn't break $1000, although it got close. Now its back closer to $930 and climbing back.  If you didn't buy at $980 because it was too high, will you buy now?

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: tex703 on June 24, 2009, 02:52:04 pm
I can't afford to buy Gold right now, so I think I will keep on buying Silver for right now.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on June 24, 2009, 04:09:32 pm
I can't afford to buy Gold right now, so I think I will keep on buying Silver for right now.

Nonsense.  Everyone can afford to buy gold, the only question is how much.  It's fine to have a preference for silver, but don't fool yourself: you can afford to buy gold.  Genuine gold bullion coins.

If you have $4, you can buy a gold coin. (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=21685.msg273993#msg273993)

If you have $54, you can buy a Mexican 2-peso gold coin (http://www.goldmastersusa.com/mexico_mint_gold_coins.asp).

If you have $120, you can buy a US gold eagle coin (http://www.goldmastersusa.com/gold_eagle_coins.asp).

That is, if you buy them today.  I have no idea what the price will be tomorrow, but I'm pretty sure what these prices will be a few years from now: a whole lot higher.  I'm not so sure about silver, so for now, I'm buying gold. 

The amount you have to spend just determines how much premium over spot you pay, and gold looks pretty good compared to silver IMHO.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on June 25, 2009, 04:44:41 am
I can't afford to buy Gold right now, so I think I will keep on buying Silver for right now.
Nonsense.  Everyone can afford to buy gold, the only question is how much.  It's fine to have a preference for silver, but don't fool yourself: you can afford to buy gold.  Genuine gold bullion coins.

I agree.  I was of the same mindset when I first start buying silver but when I heard of the tiny gold coins that one could pick up for a couple of bucks, I was hooked.  I'm still buying silver eagles but am adding bits of gold to my hoard all the time.  Think of yourself as a mondern-day dragon!   :laugh:

Hmm... I may have to change my icon now.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: atika on June 29, 2009, 04:54:37 pm
Has anyone heard of plans to make the trade of precious metals illegal?  A friend of mine called this morning said he heard something on Bloomberg but I cannot find any information.
Wouldn't even the rumor of this or the rumor of confiscation drive a sell off or price manipulation?
Any thoughts?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Mr. Dare on June 29, 2009, 05:22:59 pm

Wouldn't even the rumor of this or the rumor of confiscation drive a sell off or price manipulation?
   Yes most commodity markets are prone to being rumor driven. In the absence of hard facts and reliable information though, you would be well off to avoid investing on the basis of unsubstantiated speculations. Gold is a good solid investment, but there is a lot of bum information floating around. Claims of gold confiscation plans surface from time to time, there is a quick flurry of activity and prices spike. When the hoopla subsides, so do the prices. The Y2K silver market is a case in point of an alarmist market driving prices up beyond what is prudent to invest. Someday perhaps such a rumor may turn out to be factual, but the odds are someone wants to sell and drive up the prices before they do it. Buying when the market is in a tizzy is a bad idea most of the time.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Freedom Prevails on July 04, 2009, 06:58:00 pm
Whew.. this thread has been ever so educational.  I started at the beginning (4 years ago)?, then decided to start at the last pages and head back to read the more up to date news.  I c/p'd all the important stuff so when I try and tell someone about it, I'll have it right in my Gold documents.  Hopefully I won't gather so many gold docs that it takes me days and weeks to go through each one in search of one link.  :laugh:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on July 10, 2009, 06:32:00 pm
Inflation Calculator (http://www.westegg.com/inflation) - Consumer Price Index, from 1800 to 2007


1914-2007
  1914 $1000 = 2007 $20,732.49
  inc cost 2,073%
  dec value 0.005%
     1914 $49.58 = 2007 $1000 (or, 50¢ = $10.00)

1914-1959
  1914 $1000 = 1959 $2945.04
  inc cost 295%
  dec val 0.34%
     1914 $342.27 = 1959 $1000 (or, $3.42 = $10.00)

1960-2007
  1960 $1000 = 2007 $7039.79
  inc cost 704%
  dec val 0.15%
     1960 $146.03 = 2007 $1000 (or, $1.46 = $10.00)


Also there:  Other Inflation-related Sites
     Inflation Calculator for Italy
     Consumer Price Index Home Page at the Bureau of Labor Statistics
     Consumer Price Index Conversion Factors
     Statistical Abstract of the United States, from the Census Bureau
     Inflation Calculator in Java
     Current Value of Old Money
     Canadian Inflation Calculator
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Freedom Prevails on July 12, 2009, 10:05:36 pm
Speaking of gold, I remember reading on here at one time that someone was making gold or silver medalions, and the feds confiscated it.  Maybe it was elsewhere that I read it, but.. my question is, If we buy gold ($4.00 coins), will this gold actually be able to be used as in the gold standard of the day?
It probably appears to you that I don't know what I'm talking about, and yes, you are most definitely correct.  :rolleyes:

Now that I am ready to buy some gold, exactly how do I do it?  Are the same places mentioned from 4 years ago still up and running now?  Is doing COD possible?  Is there a way to pay cash, etc?  Ah, so many questions.. and probably the answers are in the notes that I have already.
Thanks for your time...
Freedom
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on July 12, 2009, 10:12:01 pm
Speaking of gold, I remember reading on here at one time that someone was making gold or silver medalions, and the feds confiscated it.  Maybe it was elsewhere that I read it, but.. my question is, If we buy gold ($4.00 coins), will this gold actually be able to be used as in the gold standard of the day?
It probably appears to you that I don't know what I'm talking about, and yes, you are most definitely correct.  :rolleyes:

Now that I am ready to buy some gold, exactly how do I do it?  Are the same places mentioned from 4 years ago still up and running now?  Is doing COD possible?  Is there a way to pay cash, etc?  Ah, so many questions.. and probably the answers are in the notes that I have already.
Thanks for your time...
Freedom

Gee FP, A whole lot of shaking goin on...

Where to buy is influenced by quantity. I recommend Tulving and Apmex depending on the what and the how much. Tulving is a recommendation of "Silver's and appears to sell at great prices. stay with a reliable source and an easily provable denomination like a krug, maple leaf or 50 peso coin.

Good luck
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Jebur27 on July 13, 2009, 04:31:54 pm
Speaking of gold, I remember reading on here at one time that someone was making gold or silver medalions, and the feds confiscated it.  Maybe it was elsewhere that I read it, but.. my question is, If we buy gold ($4.00 coins), will this gold actually be able to be used as in the gold standard of the day?
It probably appears to you that I don't know what I'm talking about, and yes, you are most definitely correct.  :rolleyes:

Now that I am ready to buy some gold, exactly how do I do it?  Are the same places mentioned from 4 years ago still up and running now?  Is doing COD possible?  Is there a way to pay cash, etc?  Ah, so many questions.. and probably the answers are in the notes that I have already.
Thanks for your time...
Freedom

If you want to pay cash, look for a local coin dealer.  We've purchased both gold coins (1 ozt) and 1/10 bags of pre-1965 silver that way.  We have also bought from Camino (mentioned earlier in this thread). 
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Avington on July 14, 2009, 07:59:40 pm
Where is the best place to buy gold, namely on the internet.  I did take the time to read through most of the posts in this thread, and opinion is someone mixed. 

I have dealt with APMEX in the past without problems, my only real problem is the shipping charges. 

Thanks.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on July 14, 2009, 09:37:17 pm
Where is the best place to buy gold, namely on the internet.  I did take the time to read through most of the posts in this thread, and opinion is someone mixed. 

I have dealt with APMEX in the past without problems, my only real problem is the shipping charges. 

Thanks.

Typically the trade off is volume for shipping. All sellers "forgive" shipping costs if you buy a large enough quantity. I think you will probably do better with Apmex and shipping then you will do locally. Maybe, maybe not. You could place multiple orders with a dealer and ship only when you have reached their threshold quantity. More complex but a possibility.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on July 26, 2009, 11:13:12 pm
LRC (http://www.lewrockwell.com):

23.7 Trillion Reasons To Buy Gold (http://www.lewrockwell.com/rozeff/rozeff304.html)

[The Office of
the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset
Relief Program (SIGTARP).] is here. The grand total of
all government and FED programs aimed at absorbing or
supporting bad loans has now reached $23.7 trillion.
...
[/list]
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: socalserf on July 27, 2009, 12:03:07 pm
Has this been posted yet?

LRC:

The Federal War on Gold by Jacob G. Hornberger

"Given the rising price of gold and the fact that federal spending is totally out of control, the prospect of gold confiscation and criminalizing the private ownership of gold by federal authorities inevitably rears its ugly head.

There are few things that federal big spenders hate more than gold. Why? Because they know that, historically, gold has provided the best means by which people could protect themselves against the ravages of a rapidly depreciating currency. "


http://www.lewrockwell.com/hornberger/hornberger114.html
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on July 28, 2009, 05:02:52 am
Looks like it is time to make all my gold/silver purchases in cash...  no electronic footprints here!
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on August 19, 2009, 05:16:31 pm
Doug Casey doesn't worry too much about gold confiscation. (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey081309.html)  I tend to agree with him.

Quote
Never say never where government stupidity is involved. But all things considered, a modern-day gold confiscation is not high on our list of financial worries.

Sure, if you write big checks or use a wire transfer to buy your gold, it leaves a trail.  But then the trail ends.  No one knows where you put the gold, or if you sold it.  It could be under your mattress, buried in your garden, or in a safe deposit box in Switzerland.  No one knows, unless you tell.

Confiscating gold will be more trouble than it is worth.  I don't worry about trying to find ways to buy gold with cash; it's a lot of money to carry around, cash attracts attention, and checks or wire transfers are quick and easy.  Sure, they leave a trail, but face it: if they are interested enough to pull up every financial transaction you've made, you're toast.  It doesn't matter what they find, not these days.  I try not to attract too much attention, but I don't try to leave no footprints at all.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on September 05, 2009, 04:07:30 am
I can't tell for sure, but it kind of looks like a certain train is about to leave the station.

All aboard!
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 06, 2009, 02:32:24 pm
For those interested in historical context of past events, I found this newspaper access.

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=YM4MAAAAIBAJ&sjid=yWkDAAAAIBAJ&pg=5390,5357640&dq=roosevelt%27s+bank+holiday


Use the scroll function in the right hand window to navigate. Topics include the Bank Holiday, Gold Hoarding and special session of congress. Some interesting cartoons as well
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on September 12, 2009, 06:35:58 am
When I started this thread in late April 2004 gold coins could be had for less than $400:
Quote
April 27, 2004                                                                             UPDATE on April 28
1 oz Eagle: $421  tube of 20 x 1 oz: $8,420                         1 oz Eagle $404 tube of 20 x 1 oz $8,080
1 oz. Maple Leaf: $413.50                                                  1 oz. Maple Leaf: $404
1 oz. Krugerand: $407.49                                                   1 oz. Krugerand: $392

Today the same coins cost
1 oz Eagle: $1058  tube of 20 x 1 oz: $21,139                         
1 oz. Maple Leaf: $1038                                                 
1 oz. Krugerand: $1030

That's IF you can find those coins to buy; they are much harder to find than they were 5 years ago.

The price of a Krugerand has gone up 262% in a bit over 5 years.  I could claim that represents a return of nearly 20% a year, every year, but the truth is much worse.

Everyone who did not buy gold in 2004 and since has had the value of their dollars, their bank accounts, their 401(k) and IRA plans, everything they own that is measured in dollars relentlessly stolen and devalued.  Your dollar buys  less than it used to.  A 2009 dollar buys only 38% as much gold as a 2004 dollar, and only  3% as much gold as a dollar would buy in 1890, 1913, or 1932.  A dollar buys less food, less gasoline, less car, less house, and less time than it did 5 years ago, or 10, or 20.

When I wrote in 2004, gold was coming off of lows approaching $250 in 2001.  It had been a lousy investment  1985-2000.  I know; I still have the coins I bought for $350 in 1985.         

But the times, they are a changin'.  The US has flooded the planet with dollars and bombs.  The patient Chinese have at last grown weary of making things Americans want and taking depreciating paper promises in return.  This particular chapter in the saga of paper money draws to a close.    A few short years from now, people may look back and  wonder at the folly and cupidity of people who would let a privileged cartel rob from so many to enrich so few.   They will understand that the 20th century was the bloodiest, most war-torn in human history precisely because  so many people were stupid enough to allow their governments to control their money.

It was big news, and more than a little nerve-wracking, to watch gold struggle to break and stay above $400 in 2004.  That mini-drama was repeated at $500, $600, $700, $800, and $900.  Now the price of gold is battering $1000.  It has closed above the 4-digit mark only a few times, and retreated afterwards.  But like a battering ram at the gate,  this challenge will not go away.  It will be repeated again and again, and eventually gold will go above $1000 and  stay there.

$1000 has no magic except in human psychology, but that aspect is important.  Interest in gold in the US  public remains low.  That will change.  The Chinese are urging their citizens to buy gold and silver.  The Chinese government is a major buyer and almost certainly a key factor in the present run-up in the price of gold.  The Chinese  politicians are no less criminal and corrupt than their American counterparts.  The difference is that the Chinese don't worry about the next election, but about clinging to power for the long haul.  To do that, they need most Chinese people to be relatively content.  With the Greater Depression looming over the entire planet, the Chinese politicians know that a  peasant forced to return to the family farm after he loses his bubble-driven job in the city will be a lot happier, and lot less likely to cause trouble, if he makes that trip with some gold and silver coins in his pocket.

American politicians, in their ignorance and arrogance and attention span limited to November 2010 and 2012 will never understand why poor Chinese should buy expensive gold coins.  American politicians literally can't conceive of a world where they are not in charge, getting their way with endless floods of dollars they can create at will, backed by endless streams of bombs purchased with those same dollars.

Those who read these words are different.  They can see possibilities and futures that politicians dare not contemplate. 

If you didn't buy gold in 2004, it was probably because it was too expensive, or you didn't have the money, or didn't think it was very important.  The same excuses were in use in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008.   But think of all the dollars that have passed through your bank account and your wallet in that time.  Would it really have been that hard to set aside a bit, to hedge your bets, to protect yourself against what is rather plainly coming?

To ask the question is to answer it.  Those who have gold can sleep well and find good vantage points to observe the greatest train wreck in human history as it unfolds in all its awesome tragedy.  Those who don't own gold are on the train, hoping for the best, or perhaps just in denial and not thinking at all.  Not to decide is a decision.  Not to act is an action.  Choose now, while there are still choices.

Got gold?

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 12, 2009, 10:55:55 pm
Tracker broke out of long term resistance yesterday.
Title: A strange thing happened to the price of gold on Friday
Post by: Silver on October 03, 2009, 07:08:23 am
The image below is quite remarkable.

Gold opened trading early Friday morning on the London exchange trading just below $1000.  At 8:30 AM EDT, the paperhangers at NYMEX went to work.  It's not at all unusual to see the NYMEX paper futures trading (as opposed to the 400-oz phyiscal gold bar trading in London) hammer the price of gold on a slow Friday.  The typical hit is $10-25 per oz, sometimes more.  It happens so regularly that I generally watch the price of gold on Fridays, and if possible order a few coins Friday afternoon.

But on this Friday, the initial slam was quickly overcome by a strong hand (or hands).  In less than 2 hours, the price rose from a low of about $987 to nearly $1007, closing at $1002.

I strongly suspect that this is an example of the Beijing Put (http://www.gata.org/node/7761) at work.  Basically, China has had enough of US dollar hegemony, bullying, and stealing.  The Chinese government has stated in multiple public forums that they are buying gold.  They are advising their citizens to buy gold and silver.  And they admit that they are buying on the dips, as discussed in the linked article.

I like buying on dips, it has served me very well for the past 6+ years.  But this is new. The Beijing Put means that gold probably won't go much below $1000 again, at least not very far, nor very long.  The Chinese have literally trillions of dollars to spend, they know the dollars are literally worth less every day, and will all too soon be entirely worthless.  They have the ultimate strong hand and can outbid any other entity in the gold market, and we know they are participating in that market.  We also know that the big bullion banks who dominate NYMEX do the bidding of the fed and the US Treasury. Now there seems to be a new boss in town.

I suspect but can't prove that this curious blip on an otherwise unremarkable Friday was part of a deliberate backhand to the US in general and the federal government in particular.  The IOC threw out the US bid to host the Olympics in the first round, a very public and definitely intentional rebuke to Obama and the US.  The questions of one IOC panelist about the shabby treatment of people attempting to enter the US went unanswered.  There really is a price to pay for bullying and bad manners.  On the same day, the big bullion banks practicing business as usual slamming gold down got slapped back hard.   I think it left a mark.

To those who claim that the price of gold is manipulated by the fed and other central banks, I've always replied "Bring it on!"  I LIKE low prices on gold coins.  Now it may be that if there was manipulation, it has met its match.  That means no more cheap gold for us little folk.

The next few months will be very interesting, in the full Chinese curse sense of the word.  I doubt we'll see 3-figure gold prices again.  If we do, I'm going to find a way to buy.  The times, they are a changin'.

Got gold?

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on October 06, 2009, 10:06:34 am
To quote the Mogambo Guru:

Quote
Hey! This investing stuff is easy! Whee!
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on October 10, 2009, 06:10:37 pm
Duplicated from Gen Disc. Worth reading and considering:

Celente's talk (http://www.examiner.com/x-9341-Manhattan-Headlines-Examiner~y2009m10d8-Gerald-Celente-explains-Obamageddon-forecast-amid-call-for-The-Great-American-Renaissance) on the future.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: byron mc on October 22, 2009, 10:31:05 am
Quote
gold has risen to new nominal highs at $1,066 per ounce. In this same time period the U.S. currency has fallen by 5%. Oil is trading at $78 per barrel almost exactly where it traded two years ago.



Quote
I forecast the following most likely scenario:
1) The dollar will test its March 2007 low point of .7132 (see graph above).

2) Gold will appreciate over the next two years toward the $1500 mark, silver toward $35.

3) The current eight-month bear market equity rally will stall.

4) Asia, and particularly Chinese citizens, will seek safety in a dollar-for-gold and silver trade. Please remember that China was yanked off the silver standard by an American president many decades ago.

5) The jury is out on interest rates and the inflation/deflation tug of war rages on. Eventually we think interest rates must rise.
High Gold Prices Here To Stay
10.21.09
When gold hit $700 people said it would fall. Wrong. And wrong again at $1,000.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/21/gold-bull-run-markets-commodities-michael-berry.html

That first quote puts it in perspective very nicely.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: mutti on November 03, 2009, 02:45:21 pm
You know your friends are finally listening when they call to tell you "Hey, did you hear gold bounced above $1085?" during their afternoon break.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on November 03, 2009, 03:23:52 pm
Yeah, we're starting into the second stage of the decade+ long bull market in gold.

In stage one only the gold bugs and other contrarians invest; they are called names and ignored.  Gold has put in positive returns for 8 years in a row.  It's getting harder and harder to ignore that, particularly since those of us who got in early are looking at 3x and 4x returns, at least when measured in dollars.

Stage 2 is when the mainstream big investors start to buy.  These are professionals who realize that there is no way to make money in a rigged stock market, high risks in other places, but potential large returns plus relatively safety in gold.  So they start buying - and they have a lot to spend.  The gold market is so small, it can shoot up $25 or more in a single day.  Like it did today.

Stage 2 is where your retirement fortune is made.  It will last some time, probably several years.  I've been a steady buyer of gold from $280 to $980.  Sooner or later I'll buy some above $1,000, although I admit it is a psychological leap. 

In stage 3, everyman wants in.  The stock market will crash again, probably spectacularly.  Hyperinflation will be more than a hypothetical.  Everyone with a spare dollar will want some gold - and will pay whatever the market demands for it.  This is when the blow-off top occurs.  This is when, as Doug Casey puts it, the price of gold doesn't go to the sky; it goes to the moon.

This is when the smart investors, drawn mainly from those same cranks and fools who were buying gold at $280 and $300, sell it back to the masses.  This is the public service provided by speculators: when no one wants to buy, and everyone wants to sell, they buy.  When everyone wants to buy, the speculator sells.  An investor risks 100% of their capital for 10% return.  Speculators risk 10% of their capital for a 100% return.

I'm a bit of both.  Mostly I am a saver, using gold to preserve the wealth that I have.  That part of me knows that $1085 is just a sign of the market's evaluation of the dollar.  The 1 oz gold coin I bought for $320 hasn't changed.  It issued no dividend, no press releases.  It didn't split or multiply.  It just sat there.  But the world is being drowned in a torrent of dollars, and now there are so many of them stinking up the joint that I can trade that coin for more than three times as many dollars as it took to buy it.

Buy why would I want dollars?  What would I do with them?  I'll let that gold sit a bit longer, probably many years longer.  When I see gold coins on the front page of popular magazines, I'll start thinking about selling, and finding the next best place to park my wealth.  Whatever it is, it will be something that most people think is silly; just like they thought I was a nut job in 2003.

Hey, this investing stuff is easy!

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Claire on November 03, 2009, 03:57:07 pm
I'm a bit of both.  Mostly I am a saver, using gold to preserve the wealth that I have.  That part of me knows that $1085 is just a sign of the market's evaluation of the dollar.  The 1 oz gold coin I bought for $320 hasn't changed.  It issued no dividend, no press releases.  It didn't split or multiply.  It just sat there.  But the world is being drowned in a torrent of dollars, and now there are so many of them stinking up the joint that I can trade that coin for more than three times as many dollars as it took to buy it.

Buy why would I want dollars?  What would I do with them?  I'll let that gold sit a bit longer, probably many years longer.  When I see gold coins on the front page of popular magazines, I'll start thinking about selling, and finding the next best place to park my wealth.  Whatever it is, it will be something that most people think is silly; just like they thought I was a nut job in 2003.

Hey, this investing stuff is easy!

Peace,

Silver

Bravo, Silver. You and your friend The Mogambo are eloquent as always. Even more than usual. That'll be the trick ... to find that moment and be willing to let go.

Back in the 1980s silver boom, my mom -- who was no right-wing nut but who understood hard money -- had silver bars. She wanted to unload them when they soared to $40. But my sister and I talked her out of it, sure that silver would go ever higher.

Well, silly us. $40 was a manipulation by the Hunt Brothers, and silver hasn't been within spittin' distance of that since. About half. Max. Not counting inflation. So we were fools and Mama paid for it.

Still ... knowing that right letting-go moment ... that's hard. Takes wisdom.

Still, I expect we're years away from that.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on November 03, 2009, 07:00:36 pm
I like multiplying ounces x $1,000... easy.
Next stop, $10,000  :laugh:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on November 03, 2009, 07:01:10 pm
Thank you for the kind words.  Eloquence comes easier when your trades pay off.

I wouldn't kick myself too hard over your miscue on the silver play.  What the Hunt brothers did was perfectly legal.  They were brought down by the same forces that took out Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers - fantastic levels of naked short selling by insiders.  The Hunts knew there wasn't as much silver as was being sold into the futures markets, and they started taking delivery.  It was only called an attempt to corner the market as a means to demonize the Hunts.

In a free market, it's NEVER worthwhile to corner all of a commodity.  The marginal prices demanded by the last few sellers are too high, and the high price causes additional supplies to appear, via mining, or dishoarding, or scrap recovery.

The only basis for the charge was that the Hunts ended up owning claims on over 3/4 of all the silver in existence.  But that was possible only because the same banksters bleeding us today had sold promises to deliver a whole lot more silver than actually existed.  The Hunts claimed they were just trying to protect their considerable wealth after Nixon broke the last tie between the dollar and gold in 1971.  Everything the Hunts did was consistent with their claims.  In the end, the government had to change several rules to force the Hunts into bankruptcy.  Only the power elite are allowed to profit from the fundamental defects of our monetary system.  The Hunts, Bear Sterns, the upstart southern Jews at Lehman, they weren't part of that club, and got their comeuppance.

So don't feel too bad about what happened.  Had the market been allowed to work, a short squeeze for the record books would have sent silver prices to the moon.  Instead, the rules were retroactively changed and the upstarts smacked down.  Some things never change.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: spatter on November 04, 2009, 06:18:53 pm
I went to college with the younger Hunt kids.  They are such straight arrows.  I could never get my mind around how the older children in the family could be crooks.

Sounds like they weren't.

Spatter
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on November 05, 2009, 03:12:34 pm
That'll be the trick ... to find that moment and be willing to let go.

....

Still ... knowing that right letting-go moment ... that's hard. Takes wisdom.

Still, I expect we're years away from that.

Jeff Clark, part of Doug Casey's organization, has a great rant (for some fool calling the top of the gold market) discussing how to spot the market top.  He's well worth the read.

Why Gold Has a LONG Way to Go (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey110509.html)

Quote
How about you - are you feeling bombarded by TV and radio ads and segments on precious metals? Do you have the clear impression gold and silver are the hot new investing trend around the world? Are you Tivo-ing certain TV shows because of all the great info they provide about picking the next great gold stock?

He discusses several other signs of a top.  None are subtle.  It may not take wisdom so much as advance planning and paying attention.  It will be hard to sell gold, but I've learned both the hard way and the good way not to time market tops too closely.  Buy low, sell high only works if you actually sell high.  That means selling before the absolute top.  Selling gold will be hard, but at the right time I hope to have the courage to do so.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: spatter on November 07, 2009, 12:40:44 am
Another excellent article by Roger Weigand - http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wieg_cor/roger_oct302009.html
Quote

Zombie Government Reality Check


The stats and growth prognostications from tout television, New York banksters, our Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury, and various U.S. Government fiscally incestuous cabal members are replete with liars, exaggerators, and crooked politicians. The U.S. Government and several others are economically dead; they just haven’t admitted it yet.

The United States’ financial affairs are an empty burning hulk of disaster.


There is not enough taxing power, stealing power, money and bond-printing power on this globe for these dudes to worm their way out of a major collapse. It may take some time, but its coming for sure. There is no way out except to inflate. And, we know how that one ends. Read about Germany’s hyper-inflation of 1921-1922.

We are not yelling fire in this theatre of the absurd but rather giving an untenable situation the cold, blank, fishy-eyed stare of an auditor. Two and two isn’t 20 and never will be. Most everyone is broke and going broker. Even those with no debt and holding supposedly strong assets in government paper and real estate reside in quicksand. Why, because these assets are only worth what a buyer will pay for them on any given day. And, on this day, most asset values are plummeting.


The entire article is worth reading.

Spatter
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on November 10, 2009, 04:52:40 am
I'm all for his last suggestion:

Quote
Personally, with all of these wonderful new suggestions, we might suggest someone develop and build a new chain of insane asylums to house those mentally unstable folks spouting these great new ideas. Now there is good idea! That would be a flash of brilliance! With thousands of these nut-cases on the loose, those buildings would fill literally overnight.

Excellent article.  Scary, but a good read.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on December 02, 2009, 10:03:24 pm

Thanks for that analysis Silver, the chart looked like a "V" to me, the top, the "head and shoulders" pattern is a term I've never heard before.

I hope people who are deterred by the high price of gold realize the "real" Inflating of the Dollar has not really happened as of yet, the FedGov is still running on the relatively "mild" GWB budget of 2008, when 2009 hits and the Deficit reaches 1.7 trillion (more then likely 3 trillion, they always underestimate) Gold will seem a great value at 1,000.

Silver at 14.50 is a whopping bargain as well, it's recent high was 22.00, when Gold prices itself out of the ability to buy it Silver and maybe things like Palladium will increase in value as the bastard step children of Gold.

Gold has hit 1200 Silver recovered from a low of 9.35 up to 18.00 and Palladium has almost doubled:

(http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/pd1825nys.gif)

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on December 03, 2009, 05:20:48 am
The last 365 days in gold... from $754 to $1215.

(http://www.delanion.com/xg/au-1.gif)

A  $461 increase in one year.
That's about 61%.
Title: Liberty is measured in gold
Post by: byron mc on December 06, 2009, 12:26:56 pm
I think you goldies will like this one:
Quote
Vladimir Lenin observed, “The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency.”

What Lenin knew, we would do well to understand.
On November 10, 2009, it was $1,102.00 per ounce. That is a 98% increase in the value of gold; or more accurately, a 98% devaluation of the dollar, in 96 years.


Quote
If you own lots of gold this is great news. However, if you rely upon Federal Reserve Notes to pay your mortgage and feed your children, it is devastating. Based upon this trend, the dollar will be worth nothing by 2012.
Liberty is measured in gold
November 10, 2009
http://www.examiner.com/x-29000-Habersham-County-Conservative-Examiner~y2009m11d10-Liberty-is-measured-in-gold
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: motomom on December 10, 2009, 02:03:31 am
Silver, I have now spent hours reading all 38 pages of this thread, and it was very educational.  Thank you for starting it.  I just purchased both some gold and silver, mostly because of Rawle's advice on the survivalblog.  It wasn't much of a dip that I bought in, but better than nothing, I guess.  I just wanted to protect my savings against what has to become hyperinflation of the paper money now being manufactured.

Thanks for all the information in this thread!  Great stuff!
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on December 12, 2009, 05:22:34 pm
I remember when...

The old, still locked, Gold & Silver (http://www.thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=2306.msg33588#msg33588)  thread
    « Reply #152 on: November 29, 2004, 10:25:36 PM »

              Nov 20      Today
Gold      $446.40    $455.90
Silver         $7.57        $8.01
Copper      $1.45        $1.49

    « Last Edit: December 01, 2004 »


It was a very good year for large-bulk buys.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on February 17, 2010, 12:04:55 pm
There's a German firm that prints high quality banners that you can mount on interior doors or up-and-over garage doors.
I'd love to mount one or the other shown below on my garage, but it might attract some unwelcome attention!

http://www.style-your-garage.com/

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on February 17, 2010, 10:44:33 pm


I have a theory and would love to hear some feedback on it:

Gold is the new Oil circa 2004-2009.

Meaning that the Intl Banksters were manipulating the price of oil basically because they could, with the Obamao in office, they have shifted their attention to Gold and manipulate the prices via pump and dumps but within a narrow price range.

During the Crash of 08, AU's price adjusted down to the high 700's, since then it has only went one way...upwards with dips large enough to make a profit, but not large enough to crash the market.

Silver broke the 10 dollars per oz price in 09, since then it has traded in the 13 to 20 dollar range.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on February 18, 2010, 04:21:01 am
There are lots of theories, most lack much supporting evidence.

Certainly the central bankers, bullion banks, and banksters have means, methods, motives, and opportunities.

The interesting part about these theories is that if true, the small investor can use the manipulation to their advantage.

Just buy the dips.  Whenever gold or silver goes down, buy some physical metal, keep it secret, and keep it safe.
If the manipulation theories are true, you get to buy gold and silver below the true market price.

Works for me!

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bennie on February 18, 2010, 04:22:47 am


I have a theory and would love to hear some feedback on it:

Gold is the new Oil circa 2004-2009.

Meaning that the Intl Banksters were manipulating the price of oil basically because they could, with the Obamao in office, they have shifted their attention to Gold and manipulate the prices via pump and dumps but within a narrow price range.

During the Crash of 08, AU's price adjusted down to the high 700's, since then it has only went one way...upwards with dips large enough to make a profit, but not large enough to crash the market.

Silver broke the 10 dollars per oz price in 09, since then it has traded in the 13 to 20 dollar range.

Ed Steer http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayGsd.php has a free daily email that describes just such a manipulation. He watches and reports the goings-on of the buys/sells/shorts/longs manipulations each and every day around the world. I like reading it.

"With Monday being a holiday in the U.S... the activity in the global precious metals market was moribund for the entire trading day.  Most of the movement in both gold and silver was dollar related... but once gold broke through $1,100 the ounce around the London a.m. gold fix... every attempt to move about that price was quietly repelled. ............................ a lot of the price action in the metals had to do with the dollar.  But it's those 'on-the-hour' price changes that tell you that someone is foolin' with the foreign exchange markets... and, by extension, the precious metals market... which, of course, are currencies in their own right. ................. And, as Ted mentioned in his interview with Eric King on Saturday, how high gold and silver prices go on the next rally will be 100% determined by whether or not JPMorgan et al take the short side of all the long positions that will be placed as the rally progresses.  As I said before, if they do that, it will be a rally just like all the rallies that have preceded it.  But if they don't... then pick a very large number for both metals.
At least once a week I mention the fact that there are only three possible outcomes to the economic, financial and monetary problems facing governments and central banks right now... or a combination of all three.  One is an outright deflationary collapse... the second, a hyperinflationary depression... and the third, a return to a gold standard of some sort... with gold at some astronomically high price. Which will it be?  Whatever outcome it is... it's not, dear reader, very far away." 

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on February 27, 2010, 08:26:19 am
In 2006 I posted Open a Real IRA (http://billstclair.com/clairewolfe.com/wolfesblog/00001946.html) on Claire's blog.  I followed up with a post on Performance of the Real IRA (http://billstclair.com/clairewolfe.com/wolfesblog/00001991.html).

With April 15 fast approaching, I decided to update the performance chart.  I assumed that one made the maximum contribution our government "allows" you to save each year, and that you aren't (yet) over 50.

   Annual 
   Contribution
4/15/2000   $2,000
4/15/2001   $2,000
4/15/2002   $3,000
4/15/2003   $3,000
4/15/2004   $3,000
4/15/2005   $4,000
4/15/2006   $4,000
4/15/2007   $4,000
4/15/2008   $5,000
4/15/2009   $5,000

Then I calculated the performance of three different portfolios:

1) Buy the S&P 500 (via an index fund) every year
2) Pay a financial adviser to promise you 8% returns year after year, ala Bernie Madoff
3) Buy as many 1 oz gold coins on April 15 as your yearly contribution allows.  Include a 5% premium and $25 shipping. Pocket any cash left over after buying the coins.

The results are shown in the image below.  The 2009 totals are

S&P 500:      $26,318
Madoff 8%:  $47,556
Real IRA:      $58,780, 66 coins, plus $2051 in leftover cash from 2000-2009.

At the price of gold as of yesterday's close, the 66 coins in the real IRA would be worth at least $73,781.  Of course the S&P has done well this year also, but that one has the most ground to make up.

10 years of modest savings, 66 oz of gold. How many will you buy this year?

Peace,

Silver

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on March 06, 2010, 07:30:08 pm
LRC (http://www.lewrockwell.com):

Gold Money: Power to the People (http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north821.html) by North



Good. Recommended.

Also...
The coming round(s) will include trade in bits of metal, and
outlawing trade in bits of metal. Note, the French
debacle included decapitation as punishment-- it didn't stop
outlawed trade.


 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AssignatAssignat[/url)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: byron mc on June 01, 2010, 01:57:38 pm
Is Gold Just Another Fiat Currency?
June 01 2010
http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/Main/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/120379/Is-Gold-Just-Another-Fiat-Currency.aspx

Quote
In this week’s Barron’s, Richard Wiggins, chief investment strategist for First Michigan Bank, says that gold is just another fiat currency.

Quote
Quote
Gold is just another fiat currency. The only reason gold is valuable is that we believe it is valuable. Ultimately, this gold bubble ends in tears. When and how far gold’s price will decline is anyone’s guess, but a smart bet is "sooner rather than later."
via
http://seekingalpha.com/article/207771-is-gold-just-another-fiat-currency?source=feed
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on June 03, 2010, 07:00:44 am
This fellow is certainly not bashful about displaying his ignorance of the English language, economics in general, and gold in particular.

Like most loads of BS, it takes much longer to refute a pack of lies than it does to tell them, and time is something I lack.
In brief:

There is nothing "fiat" about gold.  Fiat means that something is so because someone says it is so.  That someone is generally a ruler or government when fiat refers to money.  Gold money has been the choice of millions of people for thousands of years.  The folks who prefer fiat money: rulers, tyrants, governments, criminals; these people hate gold because of the severe constraints it places upon their behavior. 

Gold is valuable for a variety of reasons.  Stating that the only reason something is valuable because we believe it is valuable is to challenge the basis of the marketplace, the peaceful and voluntary exchange of goods and services.  Today the market values reality TV shows and cops shows way higher than I ever would, but I don't propose to impose my will upon those markets.  The unspoken but plain implication is that Mr. Wiggins disagrees with the market's valuation of gold.  Unlike tripe TV, the market's opinion of gold  has been remarkably consistent for at least 6,000 years.  I'll stick with what works.

Gold is valued for industrial purposes, for jewelry, and for money.  The demand for gold as money has been suppressed for 100 years but that is changing, with a return to the 6-millennial norm quite likely.  Industrial demand is higher than ever, as is the demand for jewelry.

Wiggins is welcome to sell his gold, but I doubt he has any.  He is a bankster mouthpiece doing his job.

I'm keeping my gold, and wishing that he might be right, so that I could buy more gold on a big dip.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on June 04, 2010, 09:50:08 pm
PM's are gyrating in what I would term instability, the situation in Euroland bears watching as they are fundamentally dependent on the Euro, but have enough wealth to choose between Euros/Gold and PM's/the "dollar", imvho were that money goes to retain value in the face of Hungary joining the PIGS will determine the next price level for Precious Metals.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on June 23, 2010, 10:50:12 am
Since I updated the REAL IRA portfolio performance in February (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=1083.msg321650#msg321650), the value of those 66 gold coins has gone from 73,781 FRNs to 81,378 FRNs, meaning that the FRN has lost over 9% of its value in only 4 short months.  Project that out for another four or ten years and then look at your bank statements.

Whew!  Are you sure you don't want more gold?

My only problem is waiting for another dip to buy some more.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on June 25, 2010, 05:09:14 am
Since I updated the REAL IRA portfolio performance in February (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=1083.msg321650#msg321650), the value of those 66 gold coins has gone from 73,781 FRNs to 81,378 FRNs, meaning that the FRN has lost over 9% of its value in only 4 short months.  Project that out for another four or ten years and then look at your bank statements.

Yikes.  9% in 4 months.  Scary times indeed.  Well then, I'm off to exchange another 100 FRN's for some PM's.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: LaughingBear on June 25, 2010, 06:19:39 am
Quote
I'm off to exchange another 100 FRN's for some PM's.

Please excuse my ignorance, but PM's?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on June 25, 2010, 06:54:59 am
PMs = Precious Metals
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on June 25, 2010, 04:17:13 pm


Silver, if I may ask:

-Do you feel/think/believe/ that 1,100 is the "new' floor price for Gold?

I ask as I always keep an eye out for market manipulation by the various Reserve Banks simply manuevering Gold prices via behind the scene trading.

-What do you feel/thin/believe Silver's floor price is?

I ask that as imho 10.00 "was" the floor price for silver, however it seems to me Silver has moved into the 13.00-19.00 dollar range since 2008's low of around 8 dollars per OZ.

My general rule is to sell (25% or so) on large upswings, then buy on the way back down to my perceived floor.

And do you have a good reference source for the amount of scrap gold and silver hitting the bourses?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on June 25, 2010, 07:46:19 pm
I infer from your questions that you are buying silver to trade, to make more FRNs.  I don't trade PMs, I acquire them, so I am probably not the best source for these kinds of questions.  I've put what answers I have below each of your questions below.

Silver, if I may ask:

-Do you feel/think/believe/ that 1,100 is the "new' floor price for Gold?

I don't know.  There is good evidence that the Chinese and perhaps other foreign governments are stepping into the markets and buying on dips.  Certainly my strategy of buying on dips has become much more difficult to execute.  If true, this puts a floor on the price of gold, at least for awhile.  $1,000 to $1,100 is certainly a good estimate of the current floor.  A few months ago it was closer to $1,000.

Quote
-What do you feel/thin/believe Silver's floor price is?

I bought silver when it was under $5.  It looked cheap at that price, so I bought.  Silver is an industrial metal, much more so than gold, so the supply/demand dynamic is quite different.  It's certainly been in the $13-19 range for some time now.

Quote
And do you have a good reference source for the amount of scrap gold and silver hitting the bourses?

The World Gold Council, gold.org, publishes free reports on the supply and demand for gold, including their estimates of scrap supply.  I think you have to give them an email address to get those reports.  I don't know of an equivalent source for silver.  There may be one, I just don't know it.

Gold is almost certainly in a long-term bull market, at least as far as the price in FRNs.  But the value of FRNs is certainly falling, and will continue to fall for the foreseeable future.  Gold's price will go up and down but more up than down for the next few years at least.  None of the fundamentals, none at all, suggest otherwise.

Silver will probably, but not certainly, be dragged along with gold.  Trading in such a market is very risky.  As I said, I don't do it.  There's too much chance of being wiped out when what looks like a large upswing isn't followed by a downswing.  The value of my PM holdings in FRNs goes up and down.  That doesn't bother me.  The value in terms of troy ounces only goes up.  That's why I sleep better at night, and don't worry about my 401(k) becoming a 201(k).  But that's just me.

Good luck.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on June 25, 2010, 09:23:50 pm
I infer from your questions that you are buying silver to trade, to make more FRNs.  I don't trade PMs, I acquire them, so I am probably not the best source for these kinds of questions.  I've put what answers I have below each of your questions below.

Silver, if I may ask:

-Do you feel/think/believe/ that 1,100 is the "new' floor price for Gold?

I don't know.  There is good evidence that the Chinese and perhaps other foreign governments are stepping into the markets and buying on dips.  Certainly my strategy of buying on dips has become much more difficult to execute.  If true, this puts a floor on the price of gold, at least for awhile.  $1,000 to $1,100 is certainly a good estimate of the current floor.  A few months ago it was closer to $1,000.

Quote
-What do you feel/thin/believe Silver's floor price is?

I bought silver when it was under $5.  It looked cheap at that price, so I bought.  Silver is an industrial metal, much more so than gold, so the supply/demand dynamic is quite different.  It's certainly been in the $13-19 range for some time now.

Quote
And do you have a good reference source for the amount of scrap gold and silver hitting the bourses?

The World Gold Council, gold.org, publishes free reports on the supply and demand for gold, including their estimates of scrap supply.  I think you have to give them an email address to get those reports.  I don't know of an equivalent source for silver.  There may be one, I just don't know it.

Gold is almost certainly in a long-term bull market, at least as far as the price in FRNs.  But the value of FRNs is certainly falling, and will continue to fall for the foreseeable future.  Gold's price will go up and down but more up than down for the next few years at least.  None of the fundamentals, none at all, suggest otherwise.

Silver will probably, but not certainly, be dragged along with gold.  Trading in such a market is very risky.  As I said, I don't do it.  There's too much chance of being wiped out when what looks like a large upswing isn't followed by a downswing.  The value of my PM holdings in FRNs goes up and down.  That doesn't bother me.  The value in terms of troy ounces only goes up.  That's why I sleep better at night, and don't worry about my 401(k) becoming a 201(k).  But that's just me.

Good luck.

Peace,

Silver

Thanks Silver, my strategy is sell into strength, buy on dips, but the margins are shrinking.

Buying pm's now means even larger price moves to recoup initial investment then use those profits to buy more on dips, the margins are just to thin.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on June 27, 2010, 03:10:16 pm
djomama (http://djomama.blogspot.com):

Greek Scramble For Physical Brings Gold Price To $1,700 Per Ounce (http://djomama.blogspot.com/2010/05/greek-scramble-for-physical-brings-gold.html)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on July 22, 2010, 09:35:22 am
Is now a good time to buy gold? (http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial/3532?ppref=GLD014ED0710B)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on July 22, 2010, 09:44:22 am
Gold Coin Sellers Angered by New Tax Law (http://abcnews.go.com/Business/gold-coin-dealers-decry-tax-law/story?id=11211611)
Amendment Slipped Into Health Care Legislation Would Track, Tax Coin and Bullion Transactions
Quote
Starting Jan. 1, 2012, Form 1099s will become a means of reporting to the Internal Revenue Service the purchases of all goods and services by small businesses and self-employed people that exceed $600 during a calendar year.

Those who worry about confiscation will note that the new law creates a mechanism to track gold coin sales.  I doubt that was the intention, what they wanted is to  find more money to steal, and to slam small business in general.  But it will force many smaller gold coin dealers out of business, and create a paper trail for gold coin sales.

Gary North has a suggestion:  The 1099 Tsunami (http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north846.html)

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on July 22, 2010, 06:46:55 pm
Is now a good time to buy gold? (http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial/3532?ppref=GLD014ED0710B)

Funny isn't it? A month ago asked about the floor, gold retreated below 1,200 a month later.

I'm a touch hesitant to purchase gold at the moment, imho the various encarnations of the Federal Reserve around the globe are manipulating prices downwards for the time being and imho the price of Gold will be depressed further in an attempt to force the willy nilly gold buyer to sell off and either spend, or invest in paper assets.

Silver though, still looks like a moderately good buy as the risk is very low in comparison.

Strictly my .02.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Duespo on July 25, 2010, 09:10:05 pm
I've read through some of the replies to this topic, but I did not find any relevant to what I'm about to ask. (if there is, I apologize in advance.) For starters, I do collect gold and sliver.

However, aren't we assuming gold and silver will have some special meaning which there is no basis, other then large groups of people saying there is basis?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on July 30, 2010, 06:26:08 am
Welcome Duespo!

You won't find the answer to that question in this particular thread.  In the very first post on this thread, I wrote:

Quote
I'm deliberately not going to try and convince anyone to buy gold.  There's plenty of information on that topic, excellent web sites include 321Gold, Kitco, The Daily Reckoning especially the rantings of the Mogambo Guru (despite the name and the attitude, this guy speaks a lot of truth) and the book Financial Reckoning Day.  Just don't read the book at night, you'll have nightmares.

My premise, based on conversations and correspondence, is that there are many people who want to buy gold, but don't know how, and are afraid to make mistakes.  Gold is expensive, and no one wants to lose their money.  So here's a very short take on how to buy gold.  I'll be glad to answer questions.

So this thread is more of a how-to than a why.  But since you asked, I'll make a short answer.  For a longer one, I suggest What Has Government Done to Our Money? (http://mises.org/money.asp)  It's free.  Buy the book, it's easier to read.

Quote
aren't we assuming gold and silver will have some special meaning which there is no basis, other then large groups of people saying there is basis?

I assume nothing.  I know that free people and free markets invariably move from barter to money.  The commodity they choose for money depends on what is available, but always has the following desirable properties:

It is rare.  It can't just be picked up anywhere, it requires effort and resources to find and produce.  It's supply is nearly constant or grows slowly.

It is fungible - one looks and is valued pretty much as all others.  You can cut it in half and the two halves are worth pretty much the same as the whole.

It is durable.  It doesn't rot or corrode or melt.

It is valuable.  One can carry a small fortune (or better still, a large one) in a pocket, purse, or strong box.

It is desired by most if not all people.  Once it starts to be used as money, even those who didn't particularly want the thing for itself want it to use as money.  Everyone accepts it - if they believe it is genuine, because they know they can trade it for what they want.  That is the essence of money.

Gold and silver have been selected as money over a market process spanning 10,000 years and nearly every human civilization.  Many things have been used as money - rare sea shells, fish hooks, copper, tobacco, cigarettes, chiseled rocks, cows, camels, horses, salt, the list goes on and on.  But every time an economy using a commodity other than gold or silver starts trading in the wider world and encounters people offering gold and silver, they switch their money to gold and silver as well.

Every time.

I assume nothing.  Gold and silver meet the requirements for money better than any other commodity.  That's not my opinion, that is the result of a market process involving billions of people making trillions of trades over thousands of years. 

The assumption that is being tested, and that will be found flawed, is that paper with fancy printing or digital bits on computer memories are an acceptable substitute for gold and silver as money.  That assumption is false, and we are all going to pay the price.  Those of us who have gold and silver, no matter our reasons, will be much better off than those that have none.

Peace,

Silver

Title: China seeks to widen gold market
Post by: Silver on August 05, 2010, 09:51:05 am
Quote
China has moved to liberalise its gold market further, increasing the number of banks allowed to trade bullion internationally and announcing measures that will encourage development of gold-linked investment products.

The move by Beijing’s central bank comes as the country’s investors pour record amounts of money into gold, in a trend that is becoming a significant factor on global prices.

Last year, Chinese investors bought 73 tonnes of bullion, up from 18 tonnes in 2007. The new policies were likely to increase liquidity in the domestic gold market and spur the development of gold financial products, analysts said.

China is the world’s largest gold producer and the second-largest consumer, after India, but its domestic market remains constrained by limited investment products.

“This is a positive sign for the gold market,” said James Steel, precious metals strategist at HSBC in New York.

“The Chinese statement reaffirms the vigour of the emerging markets’ demand for retail physical bullion.”

Read the rest (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/49c6bbac-9f2a-11df-8732-00144feabdc0.html)

So China, already the largest consumer of gold in the world, is working to make it more available to 1.3 billion new customers.

There's about 0.7 oz of gold per human being on the planet.  How much will the price rise if/when some fraction of a billion people decide they want more gold?  Physical, retail bullion?

I'm guessing quite a lot.

Peace,

Silver

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: JohnGalt on August 05, 2010, 10:53:07 pm
So you mentioned only gold coins.  What about bars?  I never understood the appeal of gold coins specifically.  You are paying an extra premium for a fancy design.  But in the end, the intrinsic value is just the gold.  In an economic collapse, you could melt it down and destroy the fancy design you paid for and it would still be worth the same.  So why do people always recommend buying coins specifically?  I would think that gold bars would be better?

I don't know much about gold investing, but I'm currently trying to learn.  That's just something I've been trying to figure out before I actually start buying gold...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on August 05, 2010, 11:35:08 pm
So you mentioned only gold coins.  What about bars?  I never understood the appeal of gold coins specifically.  You are paying an extra premium for a fancy design.  But in the end, the intrinsic value is just the gold.  In an economic collapse, you could melt it down and destroy the fancy design you paid for and it would still be worth the same.  So why do people always recommend buying coins specifically?  I would think that gold bars would be better?

I don't know much about gold investing, but I'm currently trying to learn.  That's just something I've been trying to figure out before I actually start buying gold...

JohnGalt,

Coins fall into one of two categories: plain bullion coins, or numismatic 'collectable' coins. One ounce bullion
coins have only a modest mark up over the bullion value, usually, and you often get that back when you sell.
Collectible coins (bullion or not) have a much higher 'mark up' over their bullion value.

Gold coins have an advantage in that they are widely recognized and do not need to be assayed when resold,
whereas some gold bars may require that. Also, gold coins are anonymous, where as gold bars often have
serial numbers. Do you want your bullion to be anonymous or traceable? It depends on what you want.

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on August 05, 2010, 11:46:25 pm
As of the moment I type this, gold is selling for $1,195.53 per ounce in quantity (bulk).
One ounce, clearly defined as an ounce by a shape that is hard to counterfeit is selling for $1,252.54 if you buy 10 or more.  That same store (Northwest Territorial Mint (http://bullion.nwtmint.com/gold_americaneagle.php)) will buy them back at $1,207.53.

Using minted ounces, halves and tenth-ounces in recognizable cast pieces of pure gold is simply a convenient way to facilitate the exchange of gold among non-alchemists. It actually reduces transaction cost over puddles of pure gold.

Besides, they are really cool to have and hold

(http://bullion.nwtmint.com/images/goldEagleObv.jpg)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on August 06, 2010, 09:42:12 am
So you mentioned only gold coins.  What about bars?  I never understood the appeal of gold coins specifically.  You are paying an extra premium for a fancy design.  But in the end, the intrinsic value is just the gold.  In an economic collapse, you could melt it down and destroy the fancy design you paid for and it would still be worth the same.  So why do people always recommend buying coins specifically?  I would think that gold bars would be better?

I don't know much about gold investing, but I'm currently trying to learn.  That's just something I've been trying to figure out before I actually start buying gold...

How about this post (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=9245.msg115421#msg115421)?
Quote
Stay away from bars.  They need to be assayed (there is 4,000 years of knowledge on how to make a lead bar look and feel like gold) and assays will be very difficult if TSHTF. Coins are much harder to forge, and the reeding on the edges lets you know if someone has clipped the coin.  That can be very hard to see on a bar. In a world where 0.01 oz of gold may be worth a lot, clipping will become very profitable. Bars are for people with much more than 400 oz of gold (a standard "good delivery" bar is roughly 400 oz), when you have that problem, you can lecture me about real wealth.

There's plenty of information here, the Search button is your friend.

Coins are not the same as bars, and the market participants demonstrate that fact by awarding a small premium to gold coins over gold bars.  The premium applies to both purchases AND sales.  While you may get a different premium for a coin when selling than you paid when buying, the price of the coin is nearly always higher than the price of a bar of the same weight.

There is no intrinsic value to gold, or anything else.  There is only supply and demand.  With gold, supply is more or less strictly limited.  Demand is not similarly limited.  As more people turn to gold, first to preserve wealth, and eventually as money, the purchasing power of gold will increase.  Mises explained it in his typical thorough fashion:  The Determination of the Purchasing Power of Money (http://mises.org/daily/3803).

Peace,

Silver

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on September 01, 2010, 07:02:20 am
This morning gold is $1253, almost exactly a factor of 3 rise since I started this thread just over 6 years ago.

Anyone else have any three-bagger investments?  You put in one bag and take home three.

As the Mogambo Guru says:  Wheeee!  This investing stuff is easy!

Seriously, we all know it is the dollar circling the drain.  What counts is how much metal you have saved, not how much toilet paper it will buy.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: mutti on September 16, 2010, 01:20:04 pm
Congressmen Weiner and Waxman Set Gold Hearing (http://seekingalpha.com/article/225579-congressmen-weiner-and-waxman-set-gold-hearing)

Quote
A press release from Rep. Anthony Weiner, Democrat of New York, not yet (as of this instant) posted on Mr. Weiner's Web site, announces that a September 23 hearing of the Subcommittee on Commerce, Trade, and Consumer Protection (a subcommittee of Rep. Henry Waxman's Commerce Committee) will focus on "legislation that would regulate gold-selling companies, an industry who's [sic] relentless advertising is now staple of cable television."

Looks like they are specifically going after Goldline (and maybe the "famous" personalities who endorse).

The comments are great - and as usual - Tweedle-Dee and the Wonder-Dummy are being the shils vs prosecuting them  :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on September 24, 2010, 06:21:14 pm


Gold hit 1,300
Silver 21.46
Palladium 557.00

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on September 25, 2010, 07:20:58 am
Whew!  Gold up $44 in just over 3 weeks since my September 1 post.

The price will pull back sooner or later, it is the nature of commodity markets to climb and retreat a bit.  But the rise of gold has been firmly in place for 10 full years now, and there is no reason to think it will stop soon.

There are many reasons to think that gold will continue to rise, at least in terms of dollars.

1) Over $1 trillion in newly created money, currently penned up as bank reserves held by the fed, will someday be unleashed on the economy, setting off a major bout of inflation that could easily morph into a full blown hyperinflation.  The "best" scenario is 5-10 years of double-digit price increases in the cost of pretty much everything.

2) The fed is already signaling that they plan to monetize still more debt and flood the market with new money.

3) Ron Paul will introduce a bill in 2011 to audit the gold reserves at Fort Knox and the Fed's vault in NYC.  It will never pass, but it will get more people to connect the dots and realize that the gold is almost certainly gone.

4) China has already stopped buying more Treasuries, eventually our meddling and threats will annoy them to the point where they sell them.  That's another trillion-dollar time bomb.

5) More and more people are beginning to understand that the fed is monetizing debt (http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig11/lira5.1.1.html).  More and more are realizing that the Austrians had it right all along, predicted the mess, and know what happens when you monetize debt.  Major money will eventually start dumping dollars, and gold is one of the things they will want. 

6) Bangledesh, one of the poorest countries on the planet, just purchased $400 million worth of gold.  They traded 400 million scarce (for them) US dollars for 10 tons of metal.  They bought at an all-time high price, over $1250.  Other governments and wealthy individuals will notice.

7) A billion Chinese with new wealth from their capitalist economy are already putting some of their prodigious savings into gold.

This list goes on, but the point is clear.  Gold may fall a bit from its present high; that's an opportunity to buy if you believe any of the factors above have merit.  In the long term, it is the dollar that will fall.  Not so very long now.  As Doug Casey puts it, the price of gold isn't going to the sky, it's going to the moon.

Peace,

Silver


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on September 25, 2010, 11:27:24 am

Palladium's rise is somewhat stunning as well.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on October 01, 2010, 07:53:53 am


Silver, if I may ask:

-Do you feel/think/believe/ that 1,100 is the "new' floor price for Gold?

The price of gold during trading on September 30 suggests that the "Beijing put" is now set at $1,300.

Note how the moment the New York exchange opens, the paper hangers go to work, driving down the price over $15 in a matter of hours.

But then a strong hand (or hands) enters the market, and the price is restored as rapidly as it had fallen.

My "buy the dips" strategy may be toast...

Peace,

Silver


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on October 01, 2010, 08:02:12 am
Since I updated the REAL IRA portfolio performance in February (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=1083.msg321650#msg321650), the value of those 66 gold coins has gone from 73,781 FRNs to 81,378 FRNs, meaning that the FRN has lost over 9% of its value in only 4 short months. 

At today's spot price, those 66 gold coins are now worth 86,956 FRNs, although it would be foolish indeed to trade metal for rapidly depreciating paper.  The dollar has lost nearly 15% of its value in 7 months.  That's about 25% per year. At this rate, if you put $1,000 in a bank account, in 5 years it will be worth about $246.

But don't worry.  Inflation is low.  Helicopter Ben says so, so it must be true.

I can't be certain what gold's price will do in the near term, although the evidence of the Beijing put suggests it will continue to climb.  The real mania hasn't begun, yet, but I fear we may be very close.

Doug Casey's group has posted a new essay: Welcome to the Mania (http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial/3713?ppref=GLD197ED0910C).

Quote
Your relatives once teased you but now hound you with questions at family get-togethers – what stocks do you own? What's that gold newsletter telling you? Where can I keep my bullion? You don't want to be the life of the party, but they force it – it's all anyone wants to talk about. Your brother tells you he dumped his broker and is trading full-time. Another relative shoves his account statement in front of you and wants advice. You sense someone will ask for a loan. You don't know what to tell people. The attention is discomforting, and you feel the urge to escape.

At first it was exciting, then breathtaking. Now it's scary. You're drowning in obscene profits but are becoming increasingly anxious about how long it can last. Worry replaces excitement. You don't know if you should sell or hold on. Nobody knows what to do. But the next day, your portfolio screams higher and you feel overwhelmed once again.

You grab the local paper and read the town's bullion shop had a break-in last night. They hired a security company and have posted several guards outside and inside the store. Premiums have skyrocketed, but lines still form every day. The proprietor hands out tickets when locals arrive: your number will be called when it's your turn… the wait will be long… please have your order ready… yesterday we ran out of stock at 11am.

They set the essay a short way into the future, but I'm living it now.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on October 01, 2010, 10:14:59 am
Since I updated the REAL IRA portfolio performance in February (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=1083.msg321650#msg321650), the value of those 66 gold coins has gone from 73,781 FRNs to 81,378 FRNs, meaning that the FRN has lost over 9% of its value in only 4 short months. 

At today's spot price, those 66 gold coins are now worth 86,956 FRNs, although it would be foolish indeed to trade metal for rapidly depreciating paper.  The dollar has lost nearly 15% of its value in 7 months.  That's about 25% per year. At this rate, if you put $1,000 in a bank account, in 5 years it will be worth about $246.

But don't worry.  Inflation is low.  Helicopter Ben says so, so it must be true.

I can't be certain what gold's price will do in the near term, although the evidence of the Beijing put suggests it will continue to climb.  The real mania hasn't begun, yet, but I fear we may be very close.

Doug Casey's group has posted a new essay: Welcome to the Mania (http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial/3713?ppref=GLD197ED0910C).

Quote
Your relatives once teased you but now hound you with questions at family get-togethers – what stocks do you own? What's that gold newsletter telling you? Where can I keep my bullion? You don't want to be the life of the party, but they force it – it's all anyone wants to talk about. Your brother tells you he dumped his broker and is trading full-time. Another relative shoves his account statement in front of you and wants advice. You sense someone will ask for a loan. You don't know what to tell people. The attention is discomforting, and you feel the urge to escape.

At first it was exciting, then breathtaking. Now it's scary. You're drowning in obscene profits but are becoming increasingly anxious about how long it can last. Worry replaces excitement. You don't know if you should sell or hold on. Nobody knows what to do. But the next day, your portfolio screams higher and you feel overwhelmed once again.

You grab the local paper and read the town's bullion shop had a break-in last night. They hired a security company and have posted several guards outside and inside the store. Premiums have skyrocketed, but lines still form every day. The proprietor hands out tickets when locals arrive: your number will be called when it's your turn… the wait will be long… please have your order ready… yesterday we ran out of stock at 11am.

They set the essay a short way into the future, but I'm living it now.

Peace,

Silver

Disagree somewhat Silver, one should trade valuable metal for depreciating paper IF there is a identified bargain purchase to be made.

Land, firearms, homes etc.

I'm somewhat stunned that Silver has not increased in value much faster, at 20 bucks an ounce, that is still a bargain as the upside potential is greater than the downside risk.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on October 01, 2010, 10:48:37 am
Since I was discussing the "Real IRA," I think the admonition against trading is justified.  Using regular savings for planned purchases is fine, but in general Real IRAs are for retirement living, not real estate and preps.

There are certainly some folks who try to trade in and out of gold.  I'm not one of them.  I buy and hold.

I can't tell if silver is a bargain or not, but it certainly has not kept up with gold.  I've warned before that the silver market is heavily influenced by industrial demand, and industry in general is down right now.  Gold is mostly investment and jewelry demand, with high-carat jewelry being another form of investment in places like India.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on October 04, 2010, 10:58:41 am
Very good news: Individual gold holdings are now larger than those of central banks.

The Power Has Shifted: Individuals Now Own More Gold Than Central Banks (http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/10/power-has-shifted-individuals-now-own.html)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on October 04, 2010, 01:36:53 pm
Very good news: Individual gold holdings are now larger than those of central banks.

The Power Has Shifted: Individuals Now Own More Gold Than Central Banks (http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/10/power-has-shifted-individuals-now-own.html)

Doesn't that mean that Central Banksters could sell gold holdings to burn the non insiders ass?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on October 04, 2010, 06:01:02 pm
They don't have much left to sell. Britain sold most of their hoard at the very bottom of the gold price.  The announcement compares unverified claims of the central banksters against honest best estimates of private gold holdings.  The first number is almost certainly bullshyte, as we will learn some day.  The fed and other western CBs have lent or sold most of their gold, and they can't get it back.

Even if they did sell, the private sector and central banks that are not puppets of the US would snap it up, and take delivery.  The central banksters of freaking Bangladesh, with an average annual income below $1,000, just bought 10 tons for $400 million.  India's central bank bought 212 tons.  That gold is not staying in the fed's NYC vault; it is being loaded on ships and sent to its new owners.

No, this is good news, because it reflects a fundamental shift of power.  All of the gold in central banks was stolen from private citizens. The world has suffered for a full century under their tyranny.  There is a reason the 20th century was the bloodiest in human history; central banks finance endless wars that gold-standard taxpayers would never tolerate. 

Now the base of their power is eroding rapidly, with the only money that isn't someone else's debt increasingly in private hands.  The banksters won't go without a fight, but they will go.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on October 07, 2010, 12:17:11 am
Very good news: Individual gold holdings are now larger than those of central banks.

The Power Has Shifted: Individuals Now Own More Gold Than Central Banks (http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/10/power-has-shifted-individuals-now-own.html)

Doesn't that mean that Central Banksters could sell gold holdings to burn the non insiders ass?

Quite the opposite. It means they no longer have enough gold to manipulate the market.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on October 07, 2010, 03:49:54 pm
Very good news: Individual gold holdings are now larger than those of central banks.

The Power Has Shifted: Individuals Now Own More Gold Than Central Banks (http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/10/power-has-shifted-individuals-now-own.html)

Doesn't that mean that Central Banksters could sell gold holdings to burn the non insiders ass?

Quite the opposite. It means they no longer have enough gold to manipulate the market.

You'd think, but when the Fed can purchase US .Gov Debt directly and through Zombie Banks, why would the stop at manipulating gold prices as well?

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on October 07, 2010, 06:46:37 pm
I don't expect them to avoid manipulating gold prices.  In fact, I expect it.

Because if they have been holding down the price of gold, then I and every other little investor buying a few coins here and there have benefited.  We traded fewer FRNs for metal than an unhampered market would have allowed.

But I'm also expecting them to run out of gold eventually, maybe already.  And I'm quite certain that the day will come when they can buy all the treasuries they want with their digital dreck, but no one else will want either FRNs or treasuries. 

The amazing thing about the FRN is that it has lasted almost 100 years.  Most paper money scams implode in less than half that time.  But they all fail, every one.  There are no exceptions. This time will be no different, but we get to live through it.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on May 27, 2011, 09:26:41 am
So gold is back above $1500, after a longer than usual dip.  Who bought the dip?  When I started the thread Gold is still cheap (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=27478.0), it was "only" $1400.  Today it's $1533 and climbing.  That's a 10% change, which just about balances out the 10% or so actual price inflation we are presently experiencing in the early days of the hyperinflation.  Gold is doing its job, protecting wealth for those who own it.

Silver is recovering after a jaw-dropping fall from over $48 to under $33, nearly a 1/3 reduction from the peak price.  It's back up to $38 and rising.  Who bought that dip?

Silver is much more volatile than gold, but also much cheaper to buy.  You can still get bags of pre-1965 silver coins at $0.20 BELOW spot price, with free shipping.  If you buy the lower-grade 40% silver  coins, the price is $0.80 below spot.  What a great deal!  At today's prices, that represents an investment of nearly $11,000, but if a few people pool their money they can still get silver below spot.

This thread is over 7 years old.  Since the first post, the price of gold has increased nearly 400%, and the price of silver has gone up 540%.  The reasons to own both gold and silver have only grown more compelling since 2004.

Got gold?

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on June 08, 2011, 06:19:45 pm
Silver,

May I ask what determines the price of gold and silver "today" and what if anything would you or could you do to affect the price of that gold and silver?


       I know I'm not "Silver", but I think I could shed some light on the topic. Silver is VERY unregulated, so the big banks make up new rules as they go along to suppress the price to where it will be profitable to them. For instance, if silver gets too high and the big banks will go broke by paying off obligated contracts on a certain date, they will raise the limits on contracts repeatedly, forcing all the little guys to sell, therefore dropping the price to a level that won't bankrupt the banks. All of this is done in ETF's though (paper silver, not physical). Unfortunately the paper silver trade is seen as being the same as physical silver so a high volume of large transactions of "funny silver" (ETF's) effects all silver. Now gold, IMHO seems to be going up and down in symathy of the silver market. All that being said, I still recommend buying all of the PHYSICAL silver/gold that you can afford and safely store in your home or even buried in the back yard. Trust no one- Be prepared.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on June 09, 2011, 09:30:17 am
There are some half truths in that statement, but several misleading ones.

Silver is no more or less "unregulated" than gold or any other commodity.  Trading futures in any commodity is regulated.  Trading the physical metal is much less regulated; you are quite free to buy and sell silver or gold coins, but when you reach certain financial volumes, your state and/or the feds may require registration.  The IRS regulates dealers who buy or sell over $50,000 per year (http://www.irs.gov/businesses/small/article/0,,id=154465,00.html).  That includes the precious metals gold and silver.  Silver is not any less regulated than gold.

Allegations of the "big banks" manipulating the market are common, but convincing evidence is rare.  I hope they do manipulate prices lower, that way I can buy the physical metal for a bargain price. 

It's certainly not true that the "big banks" will "will raise the limits on contracts repeatedly."  First, this is about silver (or gold or other commodity) futures, not about the physical material.  Second, the "limits" weren't raised.  You can buy as many futures contracts as your bank balance will allow.  What was raised was margin requirements, margin meaning someone is loaning you part of the price of the contract.  The margin requirements specify what fraction of the contract price you must pay when taking a contract.  Margin requirements are set by whomever runs the particular futures market.  You might be able to argue that the "big banks" have excessive influence on the decisions of the market makers, but that isn't what you said.  Banks don't raise margin requirements, people running futures markets do.

Silver futures in the US are traded on COMEX, the New York Mercantile Exchange and Commodity Exchange.  Margin changes are nothing new, they happen quite regularly.  In some ways raising margin requirements makes perfect sense.  The standard silver futures contract is 5,000 troy oz.  That's about $187,000 at today's silver price.  The margin requirement was raised for the third time in a week on May 4 (http://goldandsilverblog.com/comex-increases-silver-margin-requirements-for-third-time-in-past-week-0231/) to $16,200.  That's less than 10% of the contract price, not an especially large margin.  Back in 2004, when you could buy silver for less than $6 and a contract was worth less than $30,000, the margin ranged from $2,000 to $4,000; a bigger percentage of the value than today.

If you want to buy stocks on margin, the Federal reserve sets a limit of 50% on new positions and 33% on maintenance positions (http://www.moneymentor.com/Reference%20Material/about_margin_requirements.htm).  If those margins applied to silver, the requirement would be over $90,000.

One can complain about how COMEX manages their margin requirements, or one can avoid silver futures contracts purchased on margin and buy the physical metal.  We agree that is the best strategy.

If one wants to buy 5,000 oz of physical silver using Comex, margin requirements mean nothing.  Just make sure you  have enough cash to buy the full amount of the contract, and when it comes due, take delivery.  Taking delivery may be a bit of a chore, involving armored cars and warehouses in NY or NJ, but margins don't enter the picture.  Pay your money and take your metal.

Gold and silver are fundamentally different markets.  Gold demand is primarily for investment and jewelry, which is a form of investment in many cultures that buy a lot of high-carat gold jewelry.  Gold is almost never consumed, nearly every ounce mined is still with us. 

Silver is an important industrial metal, and it is consumed in many applications.  By consumed I mean that it is not profitable to recover the metal.  The industrial demand fluctuates with economic activity but has been increasing.

Silver as an investment is a very much smaller market than gold.  Some people claim to discern a correlation between silver and gold prices.  Beyond the ongoing debasement of the dollar no such link is apparent to me.  They are different metals, wanted by different people for similar but different reasons.  It's no wonder that their prices move in different ways.

Peace,

Silver

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on June 09, 2011, 02:22:08 pm
There are some half truths in that statement, but several misleading ones.


     I stand corrected :ohshit2: You obviously have more knowlege of the market than I do. I am just a lowly coin collector, but I have at least some knowlege. I guess that you saying "There are some half truths in that statement, but several misleading ones." that I'm close to half right, or at least on the right track :laugh: Thank you for the info. I am learning as I go. My false understanding of the topic is due to never dealing with ETF's. I only buy physical silver, and only in the form of coins. I feel that coins, with their numismatic value as well as their bullion value provides more bang for your buck in recent times. Many mid-grade coins, which had a premium 5 years ago, are going for melt price. The price of silver has gone up faster than the coins have appreciated from a collector stand-point. Even professionally graded coins. If/when the silver market cools, those mid grade coins will retain value over bars of silver. Also, silver coins that are easily recognizable (eg- pre 1965 dimes,quarters,halves-Morgan/Peace dollars-Silver Eagles) will be great for barter in a post collapse economy. Perhaps I'll leave the silver questions to be answered by you. At least until I get my confidence back :notworthy:

Be Prepared,

DiabloLoco  :threvil:

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on June 09, 2011, 03:20:01 pm
It sounds as if you know more about numismatic values; I don't know much at all about collectible coins.  I've confined my purchases to pre-1965 silver coins, US and Canadian bullion coins, and private mint silver rounds.  I have a very few collectible coins for my personal enjoyment - I didn't buy them with the expectation that they would be good investments.

I investigated gold and silver futures while understanding for myself whether the frequent allegations of manipulation have merit.  In broad terms, what I found was that most of the people complaining were the ones who lost in the futures (aka paper) markets.  People who buy physical metal arguably benefit from manipulation that drives the price down. 

I'm not saying the there isn't manipulation or even outright fraud, I just can't prove it.  This reinforces my belief that us small fry shouldn't play in a ring where people can buy 1,000 times our net worth using what amounts to small change for them.  When you know there are big sharks in the water, it isn't very smart to swim.

Like you, I avoid ETFs.  I have alerted people here to CEF (http://centralfund.com/), SBT.U (http://www.silverbulliontrust.com/), and GTU (http://www.gold-trust.com/) - these are closed-end trusts, not ETFs. First they buy the metal and store it safely in a vault, then they sell shares.  For that reason, I think they are preferable to ETFs.  They are not as good as metal in hand, but you can buy them with IRA or 401(k) accounts.  While it is possible to buy bullion directly with IRA and 401(k), it's expensive and a lot of work. 

Peace,

Silver

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on June 09, 2011, 08:52:04 pm
Too bad there are not more categories of threads...

       saving assets for a rainy day
       saving assets for "retirement"

and betting
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: clarence on June 09, 2011, 10:34:33 pm
Too bad there are not more categories of threads...

       saving assets for a rainy day
       saving assets for "retirement"

and betting

as long as you have an accurate 'weather' forecast, rainy days are a sure thing.
'retirement' assets are a gamble, in that the assets may not be worth enough at the end of the timeline.
saving 'assets' is always a gamble.

clarence
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on June 09, 2011, 11:39:28 pm
Too bad there are not more categories of threads...

       saving assets for a rainy day
       saving assets for "retirement"

and betting

I think you can consolidate them.

Betting you will need on that rainy day what you saved beforehand.

Betting you will live long enough to spend what you saved and that it has enough value to carry you to your deathbed, but not so much left over that those rude, inconsiderate relatives will fight over it.

Betting for the fun of betting.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Ajax76 on June 10, 2011, 12:05:23 am
Like you, I avoid ETFs.  I have alerted people here to CEF (http://centralfund.com/), SBT.U (http://www.silverbulliontrust.com/), and GTU (http://www.gold-trust.com/) - these are closed-end trusts, not ETFs. First they buy the metal and store it safely in a vault, then they sell shares.  For that reason, I think they are preferable to ETFs.  They are not as good as metal in hand, but you can buy them with IRA or 401(k) accounts.  While it is possible to buy bullion directly with IRA and 401(k), it's expensive and a lot of work. 

I'm in the midst of this dilemma myself.  I have an IRA that I want to get invested mostly in gold.  I was leaning toward buying physical metal and letting my brokerage store it for me (for a fee, of course).  I thought that preferable to the ETFs.  I hadn't done any research on the closed-end trusts, I just assumed they were similar investment vehicles, which I see now was incorrect (after doing some reading).

A few questions I still have:

1.  Are you able to take possession of your trust shares, in metal?  Even if so, it appears the ones you mentioned only store bullion in 400oz bars, one of which dwarfs the amount my entire IRA would purchase.  What do you think it's worth, to be able to take possession of your gold anytime you wish?  I suppose I could invest in the trust, liquidate when I want to take possession, and buy physical gold with the proceeds.  However, I assume that transaction will take some time, during which the value of gold could increase drastically.  After all, if I'm wanting to take possession, it probably means there are some pretty ominous warning signs afoot.  And at that point, could demand for physical gold be so high that it could be impossible to purchase?  Has that kind of physical shortage ever happened in the past?

2.  The trust houses their gold at a bank.  What would happen to the gold backing the fund if the bank went under?  How much S has to HTF, before these trusts are no longer safe, or at what point would you start getting worried about it? 

3.  How can you tell what you are getting, when you purchase a share of the trust?  I assume they have a record of their stored bullion, which you then have to do some calculations to see what % an ounce of gold 1 share buys you.  I'm guessing the value of the fund then hovers around the equilibrium point, whereby investing the spot price of gold gets you a proportion of shares equivalent to 1oz?  






  
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on June 10, 2011, 05:51:56 am
1.  Are you able to take possession of your trust shares, in metal?  
No.  I'm not aware of any fund that is redeemable in bullion.

Quote
What do you think it's worth, to be able to take possession of your gold anytime you wish?
I think it is worth quite a bit to have SOME of my metal close to hand.  It's not as important to have ALL of it nearby.  In fact, I like having it spread about a bit, harder to find and steal that way.

Quote
 I suppose I could invest in the trust, liquidate when I want to take possession, and buy physical gold with the proceeds.  However, I assume that transaction will take some time, during which the value of gold could increase drastically.  After all, if I'm wanting to take possession, it probably means there are some pretty ominous warning signs afoot.  And at that point, could demand for physical gold be so high that it could be impossible to purchase?  Has that kind of physical shortage ever happened in the past?

What would happen to the gold backing the fund if the bank went under?  How much S has to HTF, before these trusts are no longer safe, or at what point would you start getting worried about it? 
 

It's possible.  If you wait too long in a hyperinflation, there might not be any gold to be had at any price.  On the other hand, the Central Fund people that run all three closed-end trusts take pretty good precautions.

Quote
gold and silver bullion holdings may not be loaned,
subjected to options or otherwise encumbered in any way.

...bullion is stored on an allocated and fully segregated basis in the
underground vaults of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (the “Bank”), one
of the major Canadian banks.

There are no guarantees, but these folks have been running these funds for 49 years.  They started long before gold and silver were fashionable or popular.  They've taken a lot of precautions.  The metal is most certainly there, in allocated storage, in a major bank vault.  So long as you can prove your claim to the shares, you should be able to redeem it in something you can spend.  It might make sense to wait for a hyperinflation to run its course.  You'd most likely find that you are quite wealthy.  No huge rush to get at this metal, you have other stores, right?

Quote
How can you tell what you are getting, when you purchase a share of the trust?  I assume they have a record of their stored bullion, which you then have to do some calculations to see what % an ounce of gold 1 share buys you.  I'm guessing the value of the fund then hovers around the equilibrium point, whereby investing the spot price of gold gets you a proportion of shares equivalent to 1oz?   

They do that calculation (http://centralfund.com/Nav%20Form.htm) for you, every day.  Using CEF as an example (the other two are run the same way by the same people)
As of June 9, the net asset value (NAV) per share was $21.74.  The shares were trading at $21.68.  That's right, you can buy claims to silver and gold bullion for a 0.3% discount over the spot price.  Try buying an Eagle for that price!  I've purchased when the discount reached 5%.  Other times when demand is high the shares trade at a premium to the NAV.

The NAV calculation is pretty simple, since 98% of their assets are in bullion.  They have 1,694,644 oz of gold, 76,964,103 oz of silver.  There are 254,432,713 shares. 

Read their annual report (http://centralfund.com/annualreport/annualreport%202010%20with%20MDA.pdf).  It's a joy to read, especially if you've ever read one of the weasel-worded tomes of a typical publicly traded firm.

You can set up a self directed IRA, but it will cost several thousand dollars.  Once you do, you can order CERTAIN TYPES of gold and silver bullion coins.  Be careful, and have professional advice.  I am not a professional, and this is not advice. But with a SD IRA, you can have the bullion - for a price.

Peace,

Silver






Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on June 10, 2011, 05:59:16 am
Too bad there are not more categories of threads...

       saving assets for a rainy day
       saving assets for "retirement"

and betting

I have all three, and from time to time I reconsider the allocations.

Rainy day assets are a few gold coins, mostly 0.1 oz Eagles, plus pre-1965 silver coins and silver rounds.  I figure those are all small enough to trade for food, fuel, etc. in a SHTF scenario.

Retirement assets are for when I'm too old, tired, or sick to work.  All gold, I figure to sell them slowly, at the best prices.

Betting funds are 10% of my IRA, so that the profits aren't eaten up by taxes.  An investor risks 100% of his capital hoping for an 8% return.  I speculate with 10% of my capital, looking for  100% returns.

Speculation is work.  You can make money, and you can lose money.  If you don't work hard at it, do your homework first, you will lose.  But if you put enough time and keep your discipline, that 10% of the IRA can become 90% of the total in a few years.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Ajax76 on June 10, 2011, 01:42:04 pm
No huge rush to get at this metal, you have other stores, right?
...
You can set up a self directed IRA, but it will cost several thousand dollars.  Once you do, you can order CERTAIN TYPES of gold and silver bullion coins.  Be careful, and have professional advice.  I am not a professional, and this is not advice. But with a SD IRA, you can have the bullion - for a price.

Yeah, I have a decent stash of silver coins tucked away, and even if I lost the entire IRA I'd be able to survive just fine.  My IRA is self-directed.  I've been investing in stocks and such, and doing okay (though I think a monkey throwing darts would have done okay during that run).  It was just recently that I realized I probably need to be out of stocks, and into something else (I sold off last week, which turned out to be a good move).  The more I think, the more (seemingly) obvious it becomes to me that our financial/economic/political system is approaching critical mass.  Something has to give.  My main goal now is to preserve as much of my current wealth as I can throughout the coming storm, as opposed to when I started I was doing quite a bit of short-term tinkering to try to make money.  Gold definitely looks like the best bet, for what I want to accomplish now.  I'll probably start out by buying shares in the trust and keep my ear to the ground (might be a good day to buy, looks like CEF is down 2.6%).  If the economic situation starts getting considerably worse, I'll probably try to decrease those holdings in favor of metal in hand.

Thanks for the info! 
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: clarence on June 17, 2011, 08:49:26 pm
New Metals Trading Restrictions (http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/89868.html) from lrc

i could not find a notice on the front page of either forex.com or forex-metals.com in regard to the provisions of dodd-frank being implemented. but then, i'm not a trader on the otc market.

looks like another way to protect big-money shorts in pm's.

clarence
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: mutti on June 18, 2011, 06:20:59 pm
New Metals Trading Restrictions (http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/89868.html) from lrc

i could not find a notice on the front page of either forex.com or forex-metals.com in regard to the provisions of dodd-frank being implemented. but then, i'm not a trader on the otc market.

looks like another way to protect big-money shorts in pm's.

clarence

I did a bit of looking, Zero hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/trading-over-counter-gold-and-silver-be-illegal-beginning-july-15) made comment as well:

Quote
So far we have only received this warning from Forex.com. We are waiting to see which other dealers inform their customers that trading gold and silver over the counter will soon be illegal.

It appears that Forex.com's interpretation of the law stems primarily from Section 742(a) of the Dodd-Frank act which "prohibits any person [which again includes companies]from entering into, or offering to enter into, a transaction in any commodity with a person that is not an eligible contract participant or an eligible commercial entity, on a leveraged or margined basis."

Last years summery of the Dodd/Frank Act (PDF (http://www.mofo.com/files/Uploads/Images/SummaryDoddFrankAct.pdf)) by Morrison Foster did not seem to indicate that this was anything more than dealing with "Paper" representing Metals stored in a vault somewhere. Unless of course one cannot take Physical Delivery of Precious Metals within 28 days (according to FXstreet)  (http://www.fxstreet.com/education/markets-regulation/us-markets-on-new-regulation/2010/08/06/)(which is the case with some of the larger dealers and large orders) - then the "little guy" will be affected?

Now post #52 on this forum (Forexfactory) (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=257726&page=4) seems to have some good information. I follow there, but don't feel smart enough to participate.

In the end I suppose that buying OTC from a local source or junk silver are still the way to go.

Silver - any thoughts?



Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on June 19, 2011, 06:41:32 am
Not really.  I don't know much about Forex (FX), which is trading one currency against another.

I have no idea why Dodd-Frank outlaws speculation against PMs; some of the discussions at the links you provided seem to indicate that the CFTC is being overly aggressive in their interpretation of the new law.

I've always believed FX to be a fool's game for small fry; these waters are deep and there are some very large sharks. Consider this recent statement (http://www.ny.frb.org/newsevents/news/markets/2011/fx110513.html) from the Federal Reserve:

Quote
The U.S. monetary authorities intervened in the foreign exchange markets on one occasion during the first quarter, on March 18, buying $1 billion against Japanese yen, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said today in its quarterly report to the U.S. Congress.

During the three months that ended March 31, the dollar depreciated 5.5 percent against the euro but appreciated 2.5 percent against the Japanese yen.  In this period, the dollar’s trade-weighted exchange value depreciated 3.7 percent as measured by the Federal Reserve Board’s major currencies index.

So if you had the foresight to predict that the dollar would appreciate against the yen and took out a 100:1 leveraged trade on that basis, the Fed and other central banks stepped in and very possibly wiped you out.

I don't like the odds, the rules, or the other players, so I don't play.

In the bigger picture, this is just another example of the increasing restrictions on individuals getting their capital out of US dollars.  It's becoming very difficult for US citizens to open foreign bank accounts.  Capital controls become draconian as countries go bankrupt, ours will be no exception.

This has nothing to do with buying physical metal; that's still legal - for now.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: mutti on June 19, 2011, 07:31:53 am
Quote
Capital controls become draconian as countries go bankrupt, ours will be no exception.
This has nothing to do with buying physical metal; that's still legal - for now.
Thank you.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on July 13, 2011, 12:46:49 pm
Whew!  Gold is $1585 today, silver is above $38. I feel dizzy.

What a difference 7 years makes:
April 28, 2004
1 oz Eagle $404 tube of 20 x 1 oz $8,080
1 oz. Maple Leaf: $404
1 oz. Krugerand: $392

0.5 oz Eagle: $217
0.25 oz Eagle: $109
0.10 oz Eagle: $45

July 13, 2011
1 oz Eagle $1655.49 tube of 20 x 1 oz $33,062.25
1 oz. Maple Leaf: $1648.09
1 oz. Krugerand: $1625.11

0.5 oz Eagle: $847.55
0.25 oz Eagle: $427.73
0.10 oz Eagle: $175.85

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: sharp_shepherd on July 24, 2011, 12:03:04 am
Here is something interesting that happened over the last 24 hours.  I had a friend call me and say his friend is selling a 1996 Gold Eagle 1 oz. coin that his grandmother left him a few years ago so that he can buy some furniture to move into his new place.  I asked what he was selling it for and was told "market value" in which I responded for him to give me a price of what he wants.  He came back asking $1450 in which I replied that I could get them all day for $1375 (not really) but would give him $1350.  Well, it's a done deal.  Picked it up for about $330 under what it would cost me at my usual place. 

My question is should I feel guilty for fibbing and talking him down when he had the chance to do research and tell me to get lost?  He didn't want to go through a dealer and I came with cash which is what he wanted. 
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bennie on July 24, 2011, 01:38:45 am
Here is something interesting that happened over the last 24 hours.  I had a friend call me and say his friend is selling a 1996 Gold Eagle 1 oz. coin that his grandmother left him a few years ago so that he can buy some furniture to move into his new place.  I asked what he was selling it for and was told "market value" in which I responded for him to give me a price of what he wants.  He came back asking $1450 in which I replied that I could get them all day for $1375 (not really) but would give him $1350.  Well, it's a done deal.  Picked it up for about $330 under what it would cost me at my usual place. 

My question is should I feel guilty for fibbing and talking him down when he had the chance to do research and tell me to get lost?  He didn't want to go through a dealer and I came with cash which is what he wanted. 

I don't understand why you did what you did. Couldn't you have just offered $1350 instead of giving him the lie? If he had refused you could have bumped up your offer.

He asked for a lot less than spot. He could have sold it at the gold & silver exchange for spot minus 5 to 7% which brings him to about $1490. He didn't want to go through a dealer which was to your advantage because you had cash. ......................*** then there is the consideration that market value of this coin is more than spot. a 1996 1 oz gold eagle bullion is going for about $1700 give or take 25 bucks***

You could have offered $1350 without the bullshit, and gone from there. I don't understand the bullshit, the lie, the fib...whatever you want to call it. Obviously it was not needed.

But hey, you got your bargain. More power to you. If that is how you do business with a friend of a friend, just hunky dory...you broke no law. None of my business....but you did ask. And, when you ask, we all got an opinion and an asshole.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Junker on July 24, 2011, 11:02:21 pm
"Thou shall not..."

All supported by the local tyrants. Its nice if the populous you're robbing
doesn't lie.  Support the priest and he'll support you.

...think or otherwise cause trouble.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: sharp_shepherd on July 26, 2011, 09:32:39 am
You guys are right.  I came clean and told him in which he could have cared less.  Still got the coin for $1350
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on August 09, 2011, 05:03:05 am
Yowza!  Gold is up over $100 since Friday's close as I write this.  $1663 to over $1765 in less than 36 hours.

I thought this would be like a roller coaster ride, but the hills keep getting higher and steeper.

Now I'm thinking more like a bull ride, but one must hang on a lot longer than 8 seconds!

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: gaurdduck on August 09, 2011, 06:07:10 am
Yowza!  Gold is up over $100 since Friday's close as I write this.  $1663 to over $1765 in less than 36 hours.

I thought this would be like a roller coaster ride, but the hills keep getting higher and steeper.

Now I'm thinking more like a bull ride, but one must hang on a lot longer than 8 seconds!

Peace,

Silver

Silver is up too...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Moonbeam on August 09, 2011, 03:13:25 pm
JPMorgan says gold may jump to $2,500/oz by year-end

August 9, 2011

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/commodities/jpmorgan-says-gold-may-jump-to-362500oz-by-year-end_574415.html

<snip> JPMorgan said on Monday it expects spot gold prices to climb to USD 2,500 an ounce or higher by year-end, on very high volatility, following the downgrade of US debt.
 
"Before the downgrade, our view was that cash gold could average USD 1,800 per ounce by year end. This view will likely now prove to be too conservative," analysts Colin Fenton and Jonah Waxman said in a note to clients.
 
Spot gold was up 2.8% at USD 1,708.59 an ounce by 12:11 p.m. EDT (1611 GMT), having hit a record USD 1,715.01 earlier and marking all-time highs against sterling and euros .
 
While the analysts expect most commodity markets to convulse lower after the downgrade, those geared to the growth of emerging markets, infrastructure investment and inflation could stabilize relatively faster and outperform markets more anchored to developed economies and consumption.
 
"The macro backdrop better parallels mid-cycle pauses in 1995 and 1998, rather than end cycle 1981 or 2008, though the risk of a worse outcome is rising and should not be ignored," they said.
 
The analysts said they would want to own a basket of Brent crude oil, gasoil, gold, raw sugar, copper, corn, and wheat in the near-term, while underweighting or shorting a basket of WTI crude oil, RBOB gasoline, aluminum, zinc, and North American natural gas.
 
The revised gold price estimate puts JPMorgan way above the consensus view of USD 1,602.58 an ounce in a Reuters poll on July 22. </snip>

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on August 09, 2011, 06:40:52 pm
Moonbeam,

I think it's quite likely that gold will reach, and probably exceed, $2,500 an ounce.
The question in my mind is "when?"

The end of the year? Sure, why not.
By this time next year? I would think so.

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on August 09, 2011, 07:54:59 pm
Quote
I think it's quite likely that gold will reach, and probably exceed, $2,500 an ounce.

Yeah?................and?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Moonbeam on August 09, 2011, 10:34:20 pm
Yeah?................and?

Mrowr!
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: MommaHen on August 09, 2011, 10:37:53 pm
Sent Silver an incredibly uneducated and rushed message, basically saying "AHHH I can't buy until September."

Is this where hindsight is 20/20 comes in?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Moonbeam on August 10, 2011, 12:27:04 pm
Is this where hindsight is 20/20 comes in?

Yep. Many of us have regrets: http://www.thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=27306.75
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 10, 2011, 03:36:50 pm
Is this where hindsight is 20/20 comes in?

Yep. Many of us have regrets: http://www.thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=27306.75
Yup, I have regrets. I was just saying something along those lines to a friend of mine the other day. "Can you imagine how much silver we would have if we had bought it back in 2000 when it was $4.00/ounce instead of all the weed we used to smoke?" My friend- "Yeah, I know. Probably about 12 or 13 ounces of silver per week for each of us. Multiply that by 52 weeks. It makes me sick....lol"
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: mutti on August 17, 2011, 07:35:41 pm
How will this affect Gold supply/price do you think?

Chavez: Venezuela recalling $11B in gold reserves (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9P659JO0&show_article=1)

Quote
President Hugo Chavez announced Wednesday he is nationalizing Venezuela's gold mining industry and intends to bring home $11 billion in gold reserves currently held in U.S. and European banks.

He said the recall of the gold reserves is intended to help protect this oil-producing country from the economic woes in the United States and Europe.

"We're going to start to bring back our gold to the Central Bank," Chavez said in a telephone call broadcast live on state television.

It wasn't clear how soon the overseas gold reserves are to be brought to Venezuela.

The Central Bank said recently that the country has about $17.9 billion in gold out of a total of more than $28.6 billion in international reserves. Chavez said $11 billion worth of the gold is held in other countries.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on August 18, 2011, 06:03:18 am
It shouldn't directly affect the supply or demand for gold.  Venezuela like many other countries owns gold held in the custody of the Federal Reserve in NYC.  Before Nixon killed us all in 1971, nations could exchange their dollars (earned when Americans bought foreign goods) for gold.  They would also swap gold with other nations to settle account balances.  Say Venezuela sold a bunch of oil to Chile for a price set in dollars.  Rather than convert Chilean pesos to dollars, then dollars to Bolivars, Chile would just transfer the equivalent amount of its gold in NYC to Venezuela's account.  Gold is heavy and expensive to move securely, so leaving gold in the federal reserve vault made sense.  Nearly all of the gold in the fed's NYC vaults belongs to other countries.

There hasn't been much swapping of gold between nations since 1971 (at least not officially) but many have left their bars at the fed's vault.  Chavez doesn't like the US government (who can blame him?) so he's basically making a public statement by paying to have Venezuela's gold shipped back to Venezuela.

So it doesn't directly change the supply, it's just moving about 200 tons from NYC to Venezuela's central bank vaults.

There might be some minor psychological effects; Chavez is basically saying he doesn't trust the fed.  But anyone who own gold or is thinking about buying it figured out that part a long time ago.

Peace,

Silver

(http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/2009/11/12/news/economy/us_gold/1968_ny_fed_gold.co.03.jpg)

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: mutti on August 18, 2011, 08:10:37 am
Thank you Silver. I suppose that many countries already have a "low opinion" of our monetary policy, so this won't have the "let's all run to take back the gold" concept I considered possible.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on August 18, 2011, 09:37:34 am
I did some more reading after my last post.  Chavez pulled gold out of the NYC fed vaults some time ago, there wasn't much there to begin with.  This latest round is pulling it back from the Bank of England (nearly half of the total parked there since 1980) plus bullion stored at banks like J.P. Morgan Chase.

He's also nationalizing the gold mining industry, but that's not much.  Venezuela ranks about 23 in gold production, perhaps 10 tons a year.  Aside from wiping out several private firms who were foolish enough to place large capital investments in a socialist hell hole, it won't change the gold market very much.  I think there is only 1 publically-traded gold mining company still doing business there.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Moonbeam on August 18, 2011, 03:53:30 pm
So it wouldn't matter much if every country/nation decided to pull their gold from our vaults? What would matter is if other countries tried to sell off their FRN's?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on August 19, 2011, 06:17:31 am
Pulling gold from US vaults doesn't change the amount of gold in the world, so in that sense it doesn't matter.  Since we have a "faith based currency" psychology does matter, a lot.  So the symbolism of moving gold, in effect stating that you no longer trust the Fed or US banks to be honest custodians, that might make a difference.

Selling dollars could make a huge difference. If China wanted to end all of our wars and meddling, they could do it with one phone call.  "Sell."  With over a trillion FRNs, they could swamp the market and collapse the dollar overnight.  Several other countries hold enough that dumping them would certainly leave a mark.

It's unlikely that China or any of our other numerous creditors will do this.  They would be destroying the value of their own asset. China is quietly buying stuff with all its dollars: mineral deposits, grain contracts, oil, mines, etc.  It would take a major bit of stupidity and cluelessness on the parts of the US government to piss off China bad enough that they would dump the dollar.  Oh, wait.

Darn.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on August 20, 2011, 12:00:41 am
The "interesting" thing about countries moving their gold out of the care of the Fed,
is that if there have been any shennanigans with 'leasing' other people's gold, it must
all be resolved when the physical gold leaves the vault.

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: clarence on August 20, 2011, 12:08:02 am
The "interesting" thing about countries moving their gold out of the care of the Fed,
is that if there have been any shennanigans with 'leasing' other people's gold, it must
all be resolved when the physical gold leaves the vault.

Bear


it won't have to be resolved until the last physical gold leaves the vault. then you have to deal with the countries that still want their gold, leased or not.

clarence
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: clarence on August 22, 2011, 04:34:22 pm
gold closed in new york at $1898.10 after peaking over $1900.00 briefly. a gain of $45.00. silver ended the day at $43.72 for a gain of $.82.

i wonder if there is even any manipulative strategy left to keep gold from going stratospheric.

clarence
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on August 22, 2011, 05:36:59 pm
The "interesting" thing about countries moving their gold out of the care of the Fed,
is that if there have been any shennanigans with 'leasing' other people's gold, it must
all be resolved when the physical gold leaves the vault.

Bear


it won't have to be resolved until the last physical gold leaves the vault. then you have to deal with the countries that still want their gold, leased or not.

clarence

Ok, you're right. That's when the pretending must come to an end. I think I was suggesting that when
the gold starts leaving, thats when thing begin to get unwound.

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: clarence on August 22, 2011, 06:19:19 pm
The "interesting" thing about countries moving their gold out of the care of the Fed,
is that if there have been any shennanigans with 'leasing' other people's gold, it must
all be resolved when the physical gold leaves the vault.

Bear


it won't have to be resolved until the last physical gold leaves the vault. then you have to deal with the countries that still want their gold, leased or not.

clarence

Ok, you're right. That's when the pretending must come to an end. I think I was suggesting that when
the gold starts leaving, thats when thing begin to get unwound.

Bear


well, (being real cynical here) if some of the gold supposedly still in the vault belongs to a nation that the .gov could designate a "terrorist-supporting nation", then would there ever have to be an unwinding?

clarence
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Moonbeam on August 23, 2011, 03:05:34 pm
http://www.moneynews.com/Headline/gold-record-/2011/08/22/id/408118?s=al&promo_code=CE49-1

Gold Advances to Record as Economy, Debt Concern Spurs Demand
Monday, 22 Aug 2011 07:10 AM

Gold rallied almost 2 percent to a record near $1,900 an ounce on Monday as a sputtering global economy boosted expectations for further monetary easing, raising bullion's appeal as a hedge against inflation. Bullion held near its new record at $1,894.10 as Wall Street erased early gains. Global markets will focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech on Friday in Wyoming's Jackson Hole, where policymakers and academics meet once a year to talk shop. Analysts said anything short of a third round of quantitative easing would likely provide limited support for gold as the Fed had already vowed to keep interest rates low into 2013. Bullion could also correct sharply after it rose 6 percent in the last three sessions, and by $400 since July.

"Gold is driven by the expectation that at some point inflation will come back, and a continuation of people looking for a safe haven beside just the U.S. Treasury bonds," said Leo Larkin, metals equity analyst at Standard & Poor's. "It's still susceptible to a pretty big pullback as things are overdone based on technical indicators."

Spot gold was up 1.6 percent at $1,888.90 an ounce by 11:33 a.m. EDT, building on its strongest one-week rise since February 2009. It is one of this year's best-performing assets, now up 33 percent. Silver rose 2.2 percent to $43.80 an ounce. Investors have flocked to the yellow metal as a haven from the euro zone debt crisis, weakness in the U.S. economy, and volatility in the currency markets. However, analysts are worried that August's near 15-percent rally has been overdone.

"People talk about gold as an insurance premium, but right now it's a really high insurance premium to pay," said Bayram Dincer, an analyst at LGT Capital Management.

Gold has benefited from the ultra-loose U.S. monetary policy of recent years, with successive rounds of quantitative easing -- which translates into printing money -- undermining the dollar and keeping real interest rates low. Bernanke's much-anticipated speech on Friday will be closely watched for any signs of Fed policy direction. At the same meeting a year ago, Bernanke announced a $600 billion bond-buying program that sparked a rally in gold. Platinum rose 1.3 percent to $1,894.74 an ounce, having earlier hit its highest since July 2008 at $1,897.50. It is trading near parity against gold, with the yellow metal the chief recipient of safe-haven flows.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on August 23, 2011, 03:21:20 pm
Gold has since  broken $1,917 an ounce.

Check out www.kitco.com They have a near-realtime display (window on right side)
that shows the last 24 hours.

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: MommaHen on August 24, 2011, 04:05:27 pm
Gold down today....?

Thoughts....
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on August 24, 2011, 04:40:50 pm
Gold down today....?

Thoughts....

Most likely profit taking. Got to remember that 'most' of the people in the market for gold are not
buy-and-hold, but buy-and-sell to make a profit. So.... from time to time when the price rises quickly
the day traders sell some or all of their gold to get the profit.

I think it's like getting life jackets out of a locker on a sinking ship and selling them. You make a
lot of money when you're done, but you're still standing on the deck of a sinking ship.... not too smart.

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 24, 2011, 04:47:24 pm
Gold down today....?

Thoughts....

Most likely profit taking. Got to remember that 'most' of the people in the market for gold are not
buy-and-hold, but buy-and-sell to make a profit. So.... from time to time when the price rises quickly
the day traders sell some or all of their gold to get the profit.

I think it's like getting life jackets out of a locker on a sinking ship and selling them. You make a
lot of money when you're done, but you're still standing on the deck of a sinking ship.... not too smart.

Bear

It really doesn't matter. It's not like they are selling physical gold. Only paper. I don't think that a life jacket made from paper is going to do you any good when the ship is sinking.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on August 24, 2011, 05:01:43 pm
Gold down today....?

Thoughts....

Most likely profit taking. Got to remember that 'most' of the people in the market for gold are not
buy-and-hold, but buy-and-sell to make a profit. So.... from time to time when the price rises quickly
the day traders sell some or all of their gold to get the profit.

I think it's like getting life jackets out of a locker on a sinking ship and selling them. You make a
lot of money when you're done, but you're still standing on the deck of a sinking ship.... not too smart.

Bear

It really doesn't matter. It's not like they are selling physical gold. Only paper. I don't think that a life jacket made from paper is going to do you any good when the ship is sinking.

It only matters _to us_ so far as it effects the market price. However, if margin requirements are increased again (and again) to
cause short covering to force the price down, the side effect will be to have the paper pushers have less and less influence
in the market.

I'm not worried about it because I buy and hold physical metal.

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 24, 2011, 05:06:17 pm
Gold down today....?

Thoughts....

Most likely profit taking. Got to remember that 'most' of the people in the market for gold are not
buy-and-hold, but buy-and-sell to make a profit. So.... from time to time when the price rises quickly
the day traders sell some or all of their gold to get the profit.

I think it's like getting life jackets out of a locker on a sinking ship and selling them. You make a
lot of money when you're done, but you're still standing on the deck of a sinking ship.... not too smart.

Bear

It really doesn't matter. It's not like they are selling physical gold. Only paper. I don't think that a life jacket made from paper is going to do you any good when the ship is sinking.

It only matters _to us_ so far as it effects the market price. However, if margin requirements are increased again (and again) to
cause short covering to force the price down, the side effect will be to have the paper pushers have less and less influence
in the market.

I'm not worried about it because I buy and hold physical metal.

Bear

I'm not worried either. I buy the dips  :mellow:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Moonbeam on August 25, 2011, 01:10:39 pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/23/us-gold-usgold-minera-idUSTRE72M1ZB20110323

Gold may hit $5,000 an ounce in 3-4 years: Canadian miners
By Polly Yam

HONG KONG | Wed Mar 23, 2011 9:41am EDT

<snip> The price of gold may hit $5,000 per ounce, nearly three times current levels, in three to four years, as demand from sovereign states, central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) rises, the chairman of two Canadian gold mining companies said.

"Gold is used as insurance for bad governments," Rob McEwen, chairman and chief executive of Minera Andes Inc and US Gold Corp, told Reuters on the sidelines of the Mines and Money conference in Hong Kong on Wednesday.

Gold is traditionally used as a hedging tool against inflation and economic uncertainty. The yellow metal has also been a favorite investor hedge against loose monetary policies in the wake of the global financial crisis. McEwen said gold was in the middle of a super cycle that could end by 2015, adding that the length of the gold super cycle and the $5,000 forecast were based on historical gold prices and the ratio of the Dow stock index against gold since 1970. </snip>
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on August 25, 2011, 03:59:09 pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/23/us-gold-usgold-minera-idUSTRE72M1ZB20110323

Gold may hit $5,000 an ounce in 3-4 years: Canadian miners
By Polly Yam

HONG KONG | Wed Mar 23, 2011 9:41am EDT

<snip> The price of gold may hit $5,000 per ounce, nearly three times current levels, in three to four years, as demand from sovereign states, central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) rises, the chairman of two Canadian gold mining companies said.

"Gold is used as insurance for bad governments," Rob McEwen, chairman and chief executive of Minera Andes Inc and US Gold Corp, told Reuters on the sidelines of the Mines and Money conference in Hong Kong on Wednesday.

Gold is traditionally used as a hedging tool against inflation and economic uncertainty. The yellow metal has also been a favorite investor hedge against loose monetary policies in the wake of the global financial crisis. McEwen said gold was in the middle of a super cycle that could end by 2015, adding that the length of the gold super cycle and the $5,000 forecast were based on historical gold prices and the ratio of the Dow stock index against gold since 1970. </snip>

That would be nice, but what would really make my day, is for some genius
to decide to back all of the dollars 100% with the gold available at Ft Knox.
That would drive the price up around $25,000 an ounce, and I could pay
off  my house.

Of course, that would not happen unless we had a full-blown currency collapse
and this was done to give the dollar some credibility. :(

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on August 27, 2011, 01:11:36 pm
How will this affect Gold supply/price do you think?

Chavez: Venezuela recalling $11B in gold reserves (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9P659JO0&show_article=1)

There's an interesting if rather uninformed article (http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/08/23/how-to-get-12-billion-of-gold-to-venezuela/) regarding the logistical difficulties Chavez will confront when moving 200+ tons of gold from the Bank of England (BoE) to the Venezuelan central bank's vaults. (H/T to Bruce Scheiner's blog (http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2011/08/moving_211_tons.html), where the comments got so out of hand the mods had to step in.  His is blog on security, and flame wars about economics are not tolerated.)

I've been watching news and commentary on this development since Mutti alerted me to it.  It seems to me that Chavez is rightly concerned that England, which is in too many respects a US sock puppet, would freeze Venezuelan assets, which would include the gold.  Mr. Chavez may not be a nice man but he is no fool.

The author is openly ignorant and dismissive of gold:
Quote
the market in physical gold is tiny, and largely comprised of nutcases.
  Nice.  So I'm a nutcase.  Actually I lose my mind on a regular basis, but it is so sick it never gets very far.

I strongly doubt the claim that it has been 75 years since anyone moved 200+ tons of gold.  It may be true that people don't move that much in one shipment.  Annual gold production is over 2000 tons a year, and ALL of that is moved.  Barrick Gold, one of the largest miners, produces more than 200 tons of gold every year, and they ship all of it somewhere.

Securing any asset worth 10+ billion dollars is a serious responsibility, but hardly an insurmountable one.  Breaking the shipments down to smaller quantities, then securing those with overwhelming force from their armed forces or mercenaries will work.  The idea is to make the cost of stealing any one shipment much too high for the attacker.

The article does get enough right to acknowledge the potential for swaps.  Venezuela produces some gold, and the neighboring states produce considerably more.  Instead of shipping their product to the BoE, they can ship it to Caracas, and take possession of a similar amount already in BoE vaults.

Very heavy, very valuable merchandise is shipped with some regularity.  Nuclear fuel is one example; crude oil supertankers another.  If it's stupid to put $10 billion onto one ship, then put $1 billion onto 10 ships, or 5 ships and 5 airplanes.  It has to be done with care, but it can certainly be done.

There is a lesson here: one of the many reasons governments hate gold is that it is somewhat inconvenient to move government-sized chunks of it about.  Most of us could put all of our gold into a backpack and barely notice the weight; for free men gold is highly portable.  For a government, it's more of a boat anchor.  Yet another reason to own gold!

Peace,

Silver 
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Moonbeam on August 27, 2011, 01:59:35 pm
Securing any asset worth 10+ billion dollars is a serious responsibility, but hardly an insurmountable one.  Breaking the shipments down to smaller quantities, then securing those with overwhelming force from their armed forces or mercenaries will work.  The idea is to make the cost of stealing any one shipment much too high for the attacker.

Just wondering out loud here.... One doesn't hear about large shipments of gold being stolen. Does that mean it doesn't happen or that we wouldn't learn of it?...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on August 27, 2011, 02:45:27 pm
Probably both.  I recalled one famous case, and found it easily with Google:

1983: £25m gold heist at Heathrow (http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/26/newsid_2529000/2529235.stm)
and wiki:
Brink's-MAT robbery (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brink%27s-MAT_robbery)

Inside job.  Six armed men had a key to the front door of a Brinks Mat warehouse.  They overwhelmed guards and  made off with 6,800 gold bars. 

Gold was less than $400 an ounce.  Those were the days. They made off with roughly $170 million in today's dollars.

Some were caught and put in prison, others got away.  Most of the gold was never recovered.

Peace,

Silver

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on August 27, 2011, 03:11:09 pm
I also found this link regarding shipment of gold:

The Story of the Two Greatest Gold Shipments In The History of the United States Mints (http://www.coinlink.com/News/general-collecting/the-story-of-the-two-greatest-gold-shipments-in-the-history-of-the-united-states-mints/)

The first, smaller shipment was 270 million dollars in gold coin and another 61 million in silver coin.  If I did my math right, that's over 400 tons of gold.  Security was contracted to Wells Fargo & Company, plus the U.S. Marshal in San Francisco.

The second shipment was done in public.  The link doesn't list the amount, but claims it was far larger.  The US Army and San Francisco police provided security.

Nick Rizzo, whoever he is, doesn't know jack about shipping gold.  Apparently he isn't too swift with search engines either.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Moonbeam on August 27, 2011, 04:03:39 pm
...Apparently he isn't too swift with search engines...

I'm not either  :laugh:  Er, but to be honest, I do get complacent and lazy  :rolleyes:  Thanks for always being a good teacher, S.   :wub:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on August 27, 2011, 05:44:27 pm
Maybe you're lazy, but you're not writing under a Reuters byline.

This is a textbook example of what's wrong with the MSM.  The reporter/blogger Felix Salmon knows nothing, but since he works for a major news agency, he has access to a helper.  His helper, Nick Rizzo, serves him a pile of steaming BS, including claims that
Quote
The last (and only) known case of this kind of quantity of gold being transported across state lines took place almost exactly 75 years ago, in 1936, when the government of Spain removed 560 tons of gold from Madrid to Moscow as the armies of Francisco Franco approached.

I spent no more than 30 minutes looking into this topic, and found many examples of larger shipments across state and national lines.  The Nazis shipped huge quantities of gold to Switzerland.  After the war, the US and Britain shipped huge quantities to themselves; spoils of war.  The US shipped 2x this amount across state lines in 1908.  The list goes on; back when gold was used as money, it was shipped all over.  It would take some dusty book research to do a decent job on this topic.  But I can show that Rizzo and/or Salmon is an ignorant fool with a few minutes on google.

Either Mr. Rizzo spent a lot less time, or he is an incompetent fool who is stealing when he cashes his paycheck.  Or he is paid to spread lies.  Take your pick.  Perhaps all three are true.

Now take that lesson and apply it every single thing you hear on the radio, see on a TV newscast, or read in a newspaper.  The depth of misinformation and lies peddled as news is so vast that it takes a long time to comprehend the scope of the swindle.

If I could get paid for unearthing gross stupidity in the MSM, I'd be rich by now.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: clarence on August 27, 2011, 06:48:31 pm
Quote
If I could get paid for unearthing gross stupidity in the MSM, I'd be rich by now.

heh, if one could get rich doing so, there would be a glut of millionaires. :laugh:

clarence
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on September 09, 2011, 06:12:56 am
The median price of US homes is back down to 1980s levels - when measured in gold.

(http://www.chartoftheday.com/20110909.gif)

Just 100 gold coins will buy a nice house.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Crash on September 09, 2011, 08:29:21 pm
Very useful information and thank you all.  I have been stocking up on the 2 G's for some time now.  I never really thought about food and water.  Duh.  Do you guys just buy lots of canned food and gallon jugs of bottled water?  I have no idea.  Is there a thread on here I can be directed to? 
Thanks in advance!
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bill St. Clair on September 10, 2011, 05:50:31 am
Very useful information and thank you all.  I have been stocking up on the 2 G's for some time now.  I never really thought about food and water.  Duh.  Do you guys just buy lots of canned food and gallon jugs of bottled water?  I have no idea.  Is there a thread on here I can be directed to? 
Thanks in advance!

That's one of the major focuses of these forums. There's a whole board devoted to it: Gulching/Self-Sufficiency (https://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?board=18.0), 106 pages of topics, including over 4,000 posts on "What did you do today to prepare?"
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on September 14, 2011, 10:06:12 am
I started this thread over 7 years ago to explain and answer questions about the process of buying gold.  Like many threads, the topics have turned and drifted.

One thing I assumed in 2004 was that anybody reading this forum already understood that the US dollar, US government, and 2004 US lifestyle was doomed.  I had figured that out by studying Austrian economics 2 hours a day for 3 years.  Once you understand how the economy works, how the fed works, the consequences of government violence in the free market, the logic is inescapable, the future all too clear.

I was far from the only one.  Ron Paul, Lew Rockwell, Bill Bonner, Doug Casey, Peter Schiff, the Mogambo Guru, John Williams, and many others had been stating unwelcome truths for years, and continue to do so.

Here's an excellent summary published in The International Speculator in July 2006, over 5 years ago. The Coming Currency Crisis (http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/coming-currency-crisis) 

It's worth reading today, both to understand how truly screwed the dollar and our former way of life really are, and to see how well people who understand basic economics can see what's coming.

Anyone can learn economics.  The price is time and effort, not money.  It doesn't require above average intelligence, just a decent attention span and the willingness to follow chains of logic to their conclusion.

Go to mises.org and start with What has government done to our money? (http://mises.org/resources.aspx?Id=7184a3af-b7ff-4465-aab5-68a3c773b48b)  Work you way through some essays, read Economics in one lesson (http://mises.org/store/Economics-in-One-Lesson-P33C9.aspx), and eventually work your way through Man, Economy, and State (http://mises.org/resources/1082/Man-Economy-and-State-with-Power-and-Market).  If you want to be a true economist, tackle Human Action (http://mises.org/resources/3250), but be prepared to spend a year on that one tome.

If you want more structure, you can pay the princely sum of $350 to take the Home Study Course in Austrian Economics (http://mises.org/store/Home-Study-Course-in-Austrian-Economics-P211.aspx).  You can enroll in the Mises Academy (http://academy.mises.org/) and not only get daily lectures, but experience today the new method of learning that will soon destroy all but the very best colleges and universities.

If you spend 2 hours a day you'll be a free man in a year, an expert in two, and you can become a scholar in three, picking particular areas for your own investigation and contributions.  If two hours a day seems like too much, think of it this way: This is prepping for the rest of your life, not just for TSHTF scenarios.  This is tuition to join the society of free men.

Economics is the study of free men and free markets.  While not everyone needs to be a scholar, you can't be free while ignorant of the subject.  People who don't understand these fundamental laws and forces are constantly buffeted and impoverished by things they don't understand.  They are fooled and duped by governments and thieves, but I repeat myself.  The choice is yours.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on September 14, 2011, 10:36:59 am
Much appreciated Silver.  I'm starting my study today.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: LaughingBear on September 14, 2011, 10:46:08 am
Silver,

Thanks for the usual high bang for the buck post, your knowledge and willingness to share same is much appreciated.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on September 14, 2011, 11:07:52 am
Thanks for the kind words, LaughingBear and Knobster, I appreciate them.

Knobster, you made my day.  Good luck.  Ask questions!  PM me or post on the forum.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Clip Johnson on September 14, 2011, 11:10:14 am
I echo the above sentiments in regards to your help in better understanding these matters. I guess it was nearly a year ago when I took your advise and began reading various books on the subject (i.e., Thomas Woods, Murray Rothbard, Ludwig von Mises, Frederich Hayeck, and perusing the extraordinary valuable website - mises.org (http://mises.org)). I can say that all of your recommendations have been very much appreciated, as my understanding has increased vastly, and continues to do so. Which I acknowledge that it wouldn't have been so without your insight shared within the confines of this forum. And for that, I can't thank you enough for your labors, and your help here on these boards regarding a great number of topics.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on September 14, 2011, 11:50:28 am
If bad ideas had immediate, negative, consequences, it would be easy for most people
to stumble towards the good ideas.

The problem is that in life, even bad ideas can appear to work for awhile. Since the
human animal has a lazy streak, most folks never look past what seems to work right now.

I think this explains an awful lot.

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on September 15, 2011, 05:30:41 am
<snip> Since the human animal has a lazy streak<snip>.
Bear

Very true.  Why, I remember when... ah never mind, perhaps I'll write more later.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on September 15, 2011, 05:44:44 am
Thanks for the kind words, LaughingBear and Knobster, I appreciate them.
Knobster, you made my day.  Good luck.  Ask questions!  PM me or post on the forum.
Peace,
Silver

I've made it through The Coming Currency Crisis and am now reading through it a second time.  It is frightening to think how many foreign countries have a lot of their holdings in the US Dollar.  Particularly that we (the US) expect foreigners to invest in us to the tune of 2 Billion a day.  So... let's keep fighting those wars and occupying more and more countries to try and win their hearts and minds!  They'll love us!  Sheesh.  'Got gold' indeed...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on September 15, 2011, 10:29:24 am
<snip> Since the human animal has a lazy streak<snip>.
Bear

Very true.  Why, I remember when... ah never mind, perhaps I'll write more later.

<snort>  :laugh:

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on September 15, 2011, 10:33:37 am
Thanks for the kind words, LaughingBear and Knobster, I appreciate them.
Knobster, you made my day.  Good luck.  Ask questions!  PM me or post on the forum.
Peace,
Silver

I've made it through The Coming Currency Crisis and am now reading through it a second time.  It is frightening to think how many foreign countries have a lot of their holdings in the US Dollar.  Particularly that we (the US) expect foreigners to invest in us to the tune of 2 Billion a day.  So... let's keep fighting those wars and occupying more and more countries to try and win their hearts and minds!  They'll love us!  Sheesh.  'Got gold' indeed...

Does The Coming Currency Crisis tell us more than what regular readers already know? I mean, if you understand the
built-in dangers of fiat money, and know about the fragile web of derivatives which bind the financial sectors of the developed
countries together, and how this is likely to lead to a world wide financial collapse, is it still worth reading the book?

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on September 15, 2011, 12:16:25 pm
It's not a book, just a short article.  I think it's worth the read.  I'm especially impressed at  how prescient the article reads a five full years after publication.  Predictions are hard, especially about the future.  Knowing what is coming is not the same as knowing when it is coming - as many preppers and market timers learned to their chagrin.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on September 16, 2011, 05:32:11 am
Yes, as Silver said, it is just an article.  It discusses the deficit (breaking it up into the gov't, we the people and trade) and also delves into how much we depend on foreigners investing in the ol' USofA. 

I also really liked the five natural reasons that Aristotle gave as to why gold is money.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on September 29, 2011, 07:26:50 am

TM, Gold and Silver is suffering through a fairly large correction.

Anyone know why? Any ideas?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: 0point on September 29, 2011, 10:23:36 am
TM, Gold and Silver is suffering through a fairly large correction.
Anyone know why? Any ideas?

As with any market move, there is rarely just one reason for a move.  With that caveat, it appears to me that the proximate cause of this correction is the Fed's announcement of the "Twist", which seems to mean they say in coming months they'll buy more of the longer-dated bonds (10-, 20-, 30-year bonds) and not as many of the shorter-dated notes & bills (1-, 2-, 5-year varieties).

It could be that lots of people moved money out of PM's into the T-bonds, hoping to buy now and sell to the Fed in coming months at higher prices.  Or it could be yet another coordinated attack by TPTB on PM's, detailed by our GATA friends (http://www.gata.org/), to keep as many people as they can from remembering that gold is money, not FRN's.

0
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: hangman on September 29, 2011, 04:35:17 pm

TM, Gold and Silver is suffering through a fairly large correction.

Anyone know why? Any ideas?

Because it was so overbought. Oh, and the constant manipulation of course.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: 0point on September 29, 2011, 05:47:11 pm
A different take from Mr. Casey (http://www.caseyresearch.com/cwc/doug-casey-buying-physical-gold-and-silver):
Quote
...when the global markets get whacked – and they just got whacked hard – everything tends to dip, as various individuals and institutions are forced to sell whatever they can get a bid on to cover margin calls, redemptions, and such. As gold became more volatile, exchanges naturally raised margin requirements, which forced a lot of weak longs out of the market. Some people say it’s because some “bullion banks” are in a conspiracy to suppress the price of gold, but I find that reasoning ridiculous. No bank – no government even – can fight a decade-long secular bull market… entirely apart from the fact that most US and European banks are dead men walking. They’re bankrupt, and only seem alive because of massive government bailouts with newly printed paper money. Survival is the main thing on their minds now, not trying to suppress the price of some commodity they still believe is nothing more than a barbarous relic. And even if some group of fools was trying to drive down the price of gold, they’d only be giving the Chinese and the Indians a bargain as they buy more.

0
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: padre29 on September 29, 2011, 09:32:37 pm

TM, Gold and Silver is suffering through a fairly large correction.

Anyone know why? Any ideas?

Because it was so overbought. Oh, and the constant manipulation of course.

Well, my take is small investors got scared off of PM's by the stock market correction and ran to "dollars".

A 16% and 25% correction is significant though.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: jamie on September 29, 2011, 10:15:38 pm
You guys have it all wrong.  According to this talking head, gold isn't money because it isn't  backed by anything.  And so people are going to the u.s. dollar which unlike gold  is backed by the u.s.g. and the fed. So the dollar is a safe investment.

Gold Is Backed By Nothing, Unlike the US Dollar Which Is Backed by the American Government



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSsIRSqEW90&feature=player_embedded


I never thought that people actually exist with this level of stupidity.

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: mutti on September 29, 2011, 10:19:50 pm
Unless you live in France (Swiss tie in anyone?) :

Tightening the Noose: France Bans Cash Sales of Gold/Silver over $600 (http://www.realnewsreporter.com/?p=8192)

Quote
A couple of weeks ago our report that some Austrian banks had begun restricting the sale of gold and silver to 15,000 Euro (~$20,000 USD) reportedly because of money laundering issues was met with disbelief by many readers of financial news and information web sites. As we mentioned in that commentary, it is our view that governments, namely in Western nations, are making it more difficult for individuals to make gold purchases, as well as to do so anonymously.

The law quoted later does not specifically cover Gold/Silver -

Quote
According to independent reports the law was passed to curb the illegal sale of stolen metals like copper, steel, etc. Given the rampant rise in thefts of these metals from telephone poles, construction sites and businesses here in the United States, we can certainly see this as a reasonable assessment for why the French passed this law.

I dunno' -  :tinfoil: anyone. At this point - maybe it's just half tin-foil and half saran-wrap...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Claire on September 30, 2011, 09:14:40 am
http://www.businessinsider.com/dont-panic-on-metal-tumble-2011-9

Six reasons not to panic.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on September 30, 2011, 10:48:12 am
Sometimes a picture helps with perspective.

Gold (and silver) had very large, very rapid price increases, which are nearly often followed by corrections.
I'm viewing this as a buying opportunity.  I held off buying for much of the past few months, now I'm going to look for some bargains.

(http://www.chartoftheday.com/20110930.gif)

You can see there have been corrections almost every year in this decade-long gold bull market.  The fall from the peak in 2007 to the depths of 2008 scared off many savers.  Not me - I understand the underlying economic principles.  This isn't a bubble, it is a clinic in Austrian economics, and those who know the rules will come out of this mess very well.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on September 30, 2011, 03:46:57 pm
Contrast the gold chart with an equivalent chart showing the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 2000.  Like the gold chart, this uses a logarithmic vertical axis.

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fc/DJIA_2000s_graph_%28log%29.svg/500px-DJIA_2000s_graph_%28log%29.svg.png)

Those folks who didn't get the memo: the bull market in stocks ended in 2000.  This chart isn't corrected for inflation, and it doesn't include the just-finished quarter ending Sept. 30.  It's the worst quarter since 2008, with the Dow ending at 10,910.  In almost 11 years the stock market hasn't gained at all.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on November 21, 2012, 06:28:47 am
Chart of the Day documents the 12-year bear market of the Dow - when measured in gold:

(http://www.chartoftheday.com/20121121.gif)

The Dow peaked in 2000; it's been downhill since.  Today you can "buy the Dow" for 7.5 ounces of gold.  In 1999, it took 44.8 ounces to make that trade.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on February 18, 2013, 03:18:24 pm
Central banks are buying gold.  Watch what they do, not what they say.

From Doug Casey's group:
Bloomberg Gold Report Misses the Mark (http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/bloomberg-gold-report-misses-mark)

Quote
Jim Rickards, a highly respected author and hedge fund manager, said last month that China has probably already accumulated between 2,000 and 3,000 tonnes of additional gold reserves. If he's right, that would be roughly double or triple the 1,054 tonnes it reported in 2009 not the 40% increase Bloomberg's numbers suggest.

At the very least, we can say that the Bloomberg report left consideration of China's imports and production out of its report naming Russia the top gold buyer of 2012. Okaybut so what?

Well, Jim thinks the next big catalyst for gold will be an announcement from China about its reserve position. Here's what he told me in late December (which we reported in the January issue of BIG GOLD, my precious-metals advisory).

"The catalyst for a spike into the $2,500 to $3,000 price range for gold will be an announcement by China, probably in late 2013 or 2014, that they have acquired 4,000 tonnes or more in their official reserve position. This will put China on an equal footing with the US in terms of a gold-to-GDP ratio, and validate gold as the real foundation of the international monetary system. Once that position is validated, gold will move to the $7,000 range in 2015 and beyond."
(bold emphasis added)

Quote
"The current international currency system is the product of the past," said Hu Jintao, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China.

...

Economist Kyle Bass recently spoke to a senior member of the Obama administration about its planned solutions for fixing the US economy and trade deficit. When he asked, "How are we going to grow exports if we won't allow nominal wage deflation?", the answer he got was, "We're just going to kill the dollar."

Yes, we're talking about the US dollar. Perhaps some investors have gotten complacent about the risks to the world's reserve currency but not central bankers. It's not hard to see why: whether they admit it or not, central bankers must know what it means to run the printing presses the way the US has since 2008, even if price inflation is not immediately obvious. It's no surprise they want to hedge their bets, moving more reserves into something with actual value... something that can't be debased by a few computer keystrokes by an increasingly unfriendly government.

The US dollar has been the world's reserve currency since WWII. That's beginning to change, and the movement into gold is just one facet of that change. The buying by central banks is exactly what one would expect to see as we approach the end of the dollar hegemony.
(bold emphasis added)

Quote
If central banks are preparing for a major change in the value of the dollar, shouldn't we? The fact remains that the US dollar cannot and will not survive the ongoing abuse heaped upon it by government planners and federal officials. That not only means the gold price will rise, but that many, if not most currencies, will lose a significant amount of purchasing power. This has direct implications for all of us.

Embrace the messages central bankers are telling us the ones they tell with their actions, not their words. Buy gold. Your financial future may very well depend upon it.
(bold emphasis in original)

Got gold?

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on February 18, 2013, 03:27:03 pm
http://www.businessinsider.com/dont-panic-on-metal-tumble-2011-9

Six reasons not to panic.

Note the date - September 30, 2011.  Over 16 months ago.  Gold fell from $1900 to $1600 in 2011, and from a high of just below $1800 to a low of $1550 in 2012. But year-over-year, gold went up, both of those years, as it has since 2004.  If you bought gold and held it, you were OK.  If you bought on the dips in 2011 and 2012, you are OK now.  Only if you panicked and bought high, then sold low, were you hurt.

Today gold is trading near $1600, silver near $30.  As Casey discussed in the previous post, there are ample reasons to believe that time is running short. 

If you want more gold and silver, now might be a good time to buy.  I've been buying.  Buying the dips has done very, very well for me over the past 10 years, and I look forward to many more years of chanting the Mogambo Guru mantra:

Quote
Whee! This investing stuff is easy!

Peace

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on March 06, 2013, 01:57:42 pm
Acting-man.com reports today (http://www.acting-man.com/?p=21995) that gold is in backwardation.  That means that you can sell gold today and simultaneously buy a contract to have gold delivered in a month or two, and make a profit on the deal.

It means that gold today is less then the promise of gold in the future.

This is contrary to basic economic law and never lasts.  When backwardation does appear, it usually is an omen of change. 

The level of backwardation is small, about $0.76 per ounce.  A bullion bank could in principle sell a million ounces today and pocket $760,000 essentially risk-free profit.  For us small fry, commissions and storage fees eat up the tiny profit.

When I last wrote about gold in backwardation (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=1083.msg254674#msg254674), it was late 2008, and the spread was $4 per ozt on a gold cost of $780, almost exactly half of today's price.  Gold shot from $780 to $880 in just over 3 weeks, and the backwardation disappeared.

If the acting-man article is correct, the current, lower level of backwardation has persisted for some weeks.  It is a curious thing.  Since I'm not interested in conspiracy theories, but only the facts of conspiracies, I have nothing more to say at this time.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on March 06, 2013, 07:02:55 pm
I realize this is in the realm of fantasy, but does anyone know what
the price of gold would be if the US went back to a 100% gold standard,
and all the gold in Fort Knox is actually still there and owned by the Treasury?

With the expansion of the money supply that's gone on, my wild-assed-guess
is somewhere between $10,000 and $40,000 an ounce.

Bear

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on March 07, 2013, 03:50:45 pm
It was more than $30,000 per ounce some time ago; adding $85 billion a month must have pushed that figure up significantly.

It gets to an interesting question of what money would be backed; the monetary base is the most common choice.  You can look up the monetary base figures at the St. Louis Fed, they are updated every 2 weeks.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on May 27, 2013, 09:12:55 am
Using the monetary base, currently 3.1 trillion FRNs, and the official US gold reserve of 261,498,000 troy oz, the price would be 11,800 FRNs/ozt.

The whole point of the monetary base is to allow banks to create money from thin air. The more common measure, M2 is presently 10.6 trillion FRNs, for a ratio of ~40,000 FRNs/ozt.

The more honest measure of money supply, M3, was discontinued by the feds - even banksters have some shame.  But John Williams at Shadowstats.com still calculates it.  About 15 trillion FRNs, over 57,000 FRNs/ozt.

The US government will never back a gold standard, but other governments probably will.  That would disconnect them from the bullying and extortion of dollar printing. 

Eventually no amount of FRNs will buy an ounce of gold.  There are unconfirmed (by me) reports of gold markets in Asia failing to clear.  Gold holders refuse to trade metal for FRNs at the rigged values imposed by the paper markets.  Even historic high premiums don't work. 

If just one contract-holder in 10 on the COMEX futures market demands delivery, there would not be enough metal in the vaults and the longs would get paid in FRNs instead, which is exactly what they don't want.  The default would rip the curtain away and destroy the paper market.

The end may be closer than we know.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on May 27, 2013, 09:26:50 am

If just one contract-holder in 10 on the COMEX futures market demands delivery, there would not be enough metal in the vaults and the longs would get paid in FRNs instead, which is exactly what they don't want.  The default would rip the curtain away and destroy the paper market.

The end may be closer than we know.

Peace,

Silver
I read this earlier. Seems like this would be a good time/place to post it. It goes along with your post, Silver. I found the article on www.coinflation.com

JIM SINCLAIR: EXPECT 100% CASH MARGINS IN GOLD & SILVER AS THE GOLD BANKS ATTEMPT TO EXECUTE THE COMEX

http://silverdoctors.com/jim-sinclair-expect-100-cash-margins-in-gold-silver-as-the-gold-banks-attempt-to-execute-the-comex/

Quote
In his latest alert to subscribers, legendary gold trader Jim Sinclair asks rhetorically where all of JPMs gold has gone, and whether the gold banks are in the process of executing the COMEX.  Sinclair states that COMEX is experiencing a death rattle, and that they will soon per-emptively raise margins in gold and silver to 100% cash to prevent a full default.
Where has all the gold gone?
Is this where all the gold in Morgans vault went?
Are the Gold Banks executing the Comex exchange?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on May 28, 2013, 11:58:15 am
Pardon my ignorance, but I don't understand what 100% cash margin means.

Does this mean that the actual delivery price is spot price +100%, or does it
mean that there will be no more gold deliveries and all settlements will be
in cash?

Sorry.

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on May 28, 2013, 01:09:06 pm
Pardon my ignorance, but I don't understand what 100% cash margin means.

Does this mean that the actual delivery price is spot price +100%, or does it
mean that there will be no more gold deliveries and all settlements will be
in cash?

Sorry.

Bear
Basically, it means that you have to back your position in silver/gold 100%. The publicly traded paper market, not the physical market. "Silver", the person not the metal, has a very good grasp on this. I would never buy shares of PMs.....EVER....but I think that he does or has in the past. Hopefully he will chime in and explain it correctly. I think that he did explain it once to ML. Not sure what thread it was though. :huh:


Found it!!!

This is the thread- Silver; ANY GUESSES AS TO TIME OF TRUE MOVES OF THE SILVER PRICE UP OR DOWN?

http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=32905.0

There is other good info there too. Hope this helps you!
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on May 28, 2013, 05:32:21 pm
Pardon my ignorance, but I don't understand what 100% cash margin means.

Does this mean that the actual delivery price is spot price +100%, or does it
mean that there will be no more gold deliveries and all settlements will be
in cash?

Sorry.

Bear

There are no stupid questions, no need to be sorry.  This is somewhat complex, hence a long answer to a short question.

Margins are amounts of cash held by COMEX (or broker, or other market clearing places) to help ensure that people who buy and sell futures contracts can pay.

Let me say out the outset that the figures below assume I am putting up all the money for a trade.  In reality, brokers will lend me an amazing amount of money for a very small initial deposit.  You'll see why in a moment.  I'm leaving out that part below, it is just another level of complexity but doesn't change the basics of what is happening.

I'm also ignoring bid/ask spreads and the difference in borrowing costs to borrow a dollar versus an ounce of gold.  Borrowing gold is usually cheaper, IF you can find someone who trusts you.  Us small fry rarely get that chance.

A COMEX gold future contract is for 100 ounces of gold delivered on a given date.  Today I can buy a contract promising to pay for delivery of 100 ounces of gold in October 2013 for $1713.60 per ounce.  (See futures prices here (http://www.ccstrade.com/futures/GC/prices/).)  That means I have to pay $171,360 to actually take possession of the gold in October.  I'll also need an armored car, but that's another story.

If I had to pay 100% margin, I would be obliged to put down all of that money today, when I bought the contract for October delivery of 100 oz of gold. But that is not how COMEX works right now.

There is initial margin and maintenance margin.  This is no different than a bank account or mutual fund that requires e.g. $2,500 to open a particular account, with a minimum balance of $1,000. 

The current COMEX margins (http://www.ccstrade.com/futures/GC/margin/) for gold contracts are $9,113 initial margin and $6,750 maintenance margin.  In theory I can put down just over $9k to buy the right to purchase over $171k worth of gold in October.  Because the contract is for 100 ounces of gold, every $1 change in the price of gold causes a $100 change in the dollar value of the contract.

Today the spot price of gold is $1381.50.  If the price doesn't change between now and October, I was wrong about the price going up.  But I have agreed to pay whomever took the other side of the contract $176,360 for gold they can (should have) bought at spot today for $138,150.  (They also could already own a gold bar in the COMEX vault.  Today that bar is worth $138,150, and they effectively tie it up when they agree to sell it to me in October.)  If the gold spot price does not change, in October the owner of the gold bar today would make a profit of $33,210 on our contract.

To make sure I can make that payment in October, Comex will require me to deposit at least $33,210 between today and delivery day in October.  Here's how that works:

Let's say that tomorrow the October future's price of gold goes down $20.  The contract is now worth $2,000 less, $169,360.  My margin was $9,113, but has been reduced to $7,113.  No problem.

The next day gold for October delivery drops another $20, to $1,673.60. My margin is reduced another $2,000, to $5,113.  That is less than the maintenance margin of $6,750.

I get a "margin call."  I must either deposit another $4,000, to bring my margin back up to $9,113, or forfeit the contract and all the money I have paid so far.  The broker holding my account can demand that funds be deposited within 24 hours (or even sooner, at the broker's discretion). If the funds don't appear, the broker can sell the position and liquidate my account. I lose everything.

This is why the broker is willing to lend me lots of money.  I might pay only a hundred dollars to the broker to borrow $10,000 for a year, but if the market moves against me, the broker gets everything I put down.  Margin calls give speculative investors nightmares.

There is a flip side.  The person who sold me the contract was betting that gold would not go above $1713.60 in October.  He is supposed to have the gold bar when he makes the contract with me.  He must put down the same $9,113 margin. 

But if there is some geopolitical shock in July, gold for October delivery could rocket to $1,900 per ounce, $186.40 higher than today.  Then the price of the contract is $190,000.  HE gets a margin call.  He must deposit $18,640 to maintain his position.

This valuation of the contract is done every day.  You are free to keep more than the maintenance margin in your account, but if the value drops below that level, you get a margin call, and have to deposit more money pronto.  Since the value of the contract moves $100 for every $1 in gold price, you can make or lose a lot of money very quickly.

The price of gold tomorrow is a lot easier to guess than the price of gold 4 months from now.  By evaluating the value of the contract every day, and enforcing the margin every day, on the day the contract executes, the value of the contract is essentially equal to the spot price of gold times 100. 

The margin is intended to cover the expected changes in the price of gold daily.  With a maintenance margin of $6,750, gold price would have to move more than $67.50 in one day before I need to worry that the other guy might not be able to pay me tomorrow.  It has moved more than that, so I am a little bit worried.

Most of the time, I don't take delivery of the gold bar.  That costs money for armored cars and such.  I just take the difference in cash. Because COMEX has been enforcing the margin requirements, I know that the other guy is good for the money.  COMEX (actually my broker through COMEX) makes the transfer; I go home happy if gold is above $1713.60, or sad if gold is less than $1713.60.

Or gold could have exploded to $3,000 an ounce overnight, inflation is 10% a week, and I demand delivery of the 100 oz bar.  In theory the fellow who sold the contract has to give me his 100 oz gold bar, but there is an escape clause that lets him pay me in cash.

If he has it.  He only had the margin on deposit with COMEX, not the full amount.  I can sue him, and I might even win, and might even collect in a few years.  By that time the hyperinflation has run its course and Newdollars are worth 1 billion olddollars.  Whatever I get is worth nothing.

That last problem goes away if COMEX imposes 100% margins.  I may not get the gold bar, but I would know he has the cash.

But 100% margins eliminate that lovely leverage, the ability to control $170,000 worth of gold for just $9,113, or more like $100 if you borrow the money from your broker.  A 100% margin requirement would drive speculators out of COMEX.  Hedging, where people like jewelers basically insure themselves against gold price movements, would still work, but would be expensive and therefore not so attractive.

I'm not sure we'll see 100% margin requirements; a default is also possible.  If just 10% or so of the people holding futures contracts were to demand delivery, there would not be enough bars in the COMEX vaults to pay everyone.  Some would get dollars instead of gold.  That would destroy the credibility of COMEX and put an end to paper gold trading, at least for a while.

Clear as mud?

Peace,

Silver

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on May 28, 2013, 08:07:03 pm
Thank you for explaining it so thoroughly and in a way that I could understand. I've always been a bit fuzzy on the whole paper market too. Seems like the high-rollers table at a casino! :laugh:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on May 31, 2013, 04:28:11 pm
Silver,

Thanks for the explanation. I'm thinking that 100% margin backing would be a good thing
as it would take some of the volatility out of the market. There could still be market manipulations,
but it might not be as deep.

It's sad to think that the casinos in Vegas are better regulated that the COMEX.

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on June 07, 2013, 02:14:36 pm
The Largest Gold Mine in the World Has Been Shut Down

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/06/05/65-733am-pub-the-largest-gold-mine-in-the-world-ha.aspx

Quote
It's been a challenging year for Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX  ) . The company faced a number of obstacles to its now-closed acquisitions of Plains Exploration & Production and McMoRan Exploration Company. The good news, at least if you were in favor of these transactions, is that the deals are now closed and it can move forward.

Unfortunately, it faces more daunting problems in its legacy mining business that need to be addressed even as it works to integrate these two major acquisitions. It's not enough that its top two commodities, copper and gold, have seen prices plunge this year, which will negatively impact its bottom line. Now, one of the company's mines is being shut down.

This isn't just any mine. This is Freeport's Grasberg mine, the second-largest copper and largest gold mine in the world by reserves, which has been temporarily shut down for three months. The Indonesian government wants to conduct an investigation into why a collapse that led to the deaths of 28 miners occurred last month.


Wait.......WHAT?!? Why is this the first I have heard of this?!? First the the Bingham Canyon Mine in Kennecott Utah (world's largest copper mine, also a top producer of silver/gold) collapses on April 10th, and NOW I see that the world's second largest copper mine, as well as the largest gold mine (by reserves) collapsed on May 14th and is shut down for three months?!? WTF is going on here? Why have these events not triggered an uptick in the metals market? Seriously......Something weird is happening.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on June 07, 2013, 07:52:21 pm
"Seriously......Something weird is happening."

The two biggest mines in the world inexplicably collapse months apart...
among the few that could weather the collapse in price making it cost more to mine than not...
said price engineered by the dominant banksters who trade in paper promises...

If you aren't ready for a run on the real metal, you are not paying attention.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on June 07, 2013, 08:49:38 pm
"Seriously......Something weird is happening."

The two biggest mines in the world inexplicably collapse months apart...
among the few that could weather the collapse in price making it cost more to mine than not...
said price engineered by the dominant banksters who trade in paper promises...

Interesting angle there slide. I don't know why I didn't see that!

Quote
If you aren't ready for a run on the real metal, you are not paying attention.


Oh yeah! I'm ready. :mellow: I'm TRYING to pay attention. I'm just wondering why this is the first news I've seen of the collapse! The Utah collapse didn't hit even the ALTERNATIVE media until a week or so after the event.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on June 07, 2013, 11:28:10 pm

Oh yeah! I'm ready. :mellow: I'm TRYING to pay attention. I'm just wondering why this is the first news I've seen of the collapse! The Utah collapse didn't hit even the ALTERNATIVE media until a week or so after the event.

lamestream media, politicians, comex, central banks ... all under the same ownership.  The truth comes from elsewhere.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on June 08, 2013, 07:27:26 am

Oh yeah! I'm ready. :mellow: I'm TRYING to pay attention. I'm just wondering why this is the first news I've seen of the collapse! The Utah collapse didn't hit even the ALTERNATIVE media until a week or so after the event.

lamestream media, politicians, comex, central banks ... all under the same ownership.  The truth comes from elsewhere.
I know. That's why I was surprised that it took almost a month for the alternative media to pick up on it.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on June 20, 2013, 04:26:37 pm
The stock market and the PM market took a massive dive today on the heels of a recent announcement from the Fed. The Fed announced that they will begin to back off of their easing, starting in a few months. (maybe September?) Silver is now $19.69/ounce (down $1.65 today) and gold is now $1277.70 (down $73.60 today). Also the Dow dropped 353.87 and is now at 14758.32 .

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100831276

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-prices-drop-as-fed-signals-stimulus-slowdown-2013-06-20?siteid=yhoof2

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-struggle-on-energy-demand-fed-worries-2013-06-20


My advice would be to reduce positions in the stock market and keep up with the regular buying of PM's. PM's WILL eventually rise. When they do, they will rise fast. It could be next week, or it could be in 5 years, but it WILL happen. Also, oil may be a good bet right now, and for the next 6-8 months. Turmoil in the Mid-East (Syria) will cause shipping problems and will drive up the price per barrel regardless of what the dollar index is at.

*disclaimer*

I am not an expert. I'm a nobody. I'm navel lint. My chances of being right are no better than a coin flip, or a roll of the die. Actually, I'm may be showing just how little I know. :dontknow: Time will tell. :popcorn:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: casca-503 on June 20, 2013, 09:35:47 pm
okay...1st.   i'm old....not  well versed  in money issues....so that said...what's  a  P.M.  ???
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on June 20, 2013, 09:52:07 pm
okay...1st.   i'm old....not  well versed  in money issues....so that said...what's  a  P.M.  ???
Precious metal.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: casca-503 on June 20, 2013, 10:36:23 pm
thanks   D.L.   /  i welcome   info...knowledge /   all offered...again, thanks.../     casca...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: casca-503 on June 20, 2013, 10:39:01 pm
my favorite  P.M.'s   =     brass   & lead....try to always  keep some on  hand...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on June 21, 2013, 06:49:33 am
my favorite  P.M.'s   =     brass   & lead....try to always  keep some on  hand...

Amen brother!
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on June 21, 2013, 09:25:04 am
beans bullets and bullion in balance

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on June 21, 2013, 02:50:41 pm
beans bullets and bullion in balance
Of course! I just figured that was a given. :laugh: Beans, bullets, and bandaids first, then barterable goods, THEN bullion.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on June 22, 2013, 08:08:00 am
Beans, bullets, bandaids, bullion, battle rifle, baby wipes, B vitamins, BBQ sauce, big bag of b... uh...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 09, 2013, 01:50:33 pm
PM's seem to be edging up lately. I hope that the trend continues! :mellow:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 12, 2013, 01:28:37 pm
Still going up! Silver up .90/oz so far today! :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Rarick on August 13, 2013, 08:14:15 am
<Finger to lips>  b.b.b.b.b.b.b.b.b.b.b.b.b.b.b.   ^_^ definitely picking up the occasional bullion.   Beans, bullets, bandages, barter, bullion, (Need a B for tools)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: MamaLiberty on August 13, 2013, 08:26:06 am
(Need a B for tools)

Beautiful?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Rarick on August 13, 2013, 08:29:00 am
Bodgers? Bangers is misinterpret territory.....  Maybe a loaner from a different languge?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on August 13, 2013, 11:37:17 am
<Finger to lips>  b.b.b.b.b.b.b.b.b.b.b.b.b.b.b.   ^_^ definitely picking up the occasional bullion.   Beans, bullets, bandages, barter, bullion, (Need a B for tools)

Hmm...

blades, bits, band saws, box cutters, big-jawed pliers (OK, that last one was a stretch)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 13, 2013, 11:37:35 am
I always call 16d or larger nails big bangers. :laugh:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Rarick on August 16, 2013, 06:14:20 am
a "B" for the whole class of implements used by the super simians known as humans........

"The instrumentality of Man" summed up with a B word.........

Brasura?!
Burn Bash bond bend?

Bodgeology?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on December 05, 2013, 12:15:24 pm
Got enough gold (and silver)?  Now might be a good time to buy. (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=4352.msg418360#msg418360)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on January 22, 2014, 12:15:17 pm
Great free article at Caseyresearch.com
Sprott CIS: This Might Be One of the Great Trades of All Time (http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/sprott-cis-this-might-be-one-of-the-great-trades-of-all-time)

Quote
John Embry is the Chief Investment Strategist of Sprott Asset Management, a position he's held for nearly a decade. Having studied precious metals for over thirty years, John knows all there is to know about gold. He's invested in precious metals through both crushing bear markets and raging bulls, giving him unique insight into where gold may be going next.

In short, John Embry's opinions on gold are worth paying attention to and he has some very strong opinions about where gold prices are going in the next twelve months.

Quote
I am really fascinated with the gold and silver markets for a simple reason: I believe that the fundamentals that should be driving the price couldn't be better. At the same time, because the price of both gold and silver have been driven down relentlesslygoing on two and a half years now for goldthe degree of undervaluation against any method that I look at is approaching historic records.

As a result of this counterintuitive price action that we've seen in both metals, the sentiment in the market is horrible. I don't think I've actually ever seen people so negative and disinterested in the subject, which I think represents one of the greatest buying opportunities in history.
(bold emphasis added)

Quote
The Germans asked for their gold, that was being held at the Fed, to be returned a year ago. We're told, remarkably, that they'll only get the 300 tons back over seven years. Quite frankly, if the gold were actually there, they could put it on a couple of cargo planes and get it back to Germany in a week.

It begs the question: Is the gold there?

It turns out that a year later, they've returned about 37 tons. If they're stretching it out evenly over seven years, then they should have delivered substantially more than that. It also turns out that the gold has been re-refined! I think that one of the great scandals that's going to emerge when all this is over is that this gold, which is allegedly in official hands, has been lent and hypothecated, and it just isn't there anymore. When that comes to widespread attention, I think that the impact on the price of goldand by extension, silveris going to be enormous. And I think we are dealing with a time frame on the order of 12 months for this to happen.


Read the whole, short interview, very worthwhile.

FWIW, I agree with his analysis, particularly the point that the fundamentals are very strong.  I don't feel as confident about predicting when the inevitable explosion in the FRN price of gold will occur.

If your PM preps are not in order, now would be a very good time to think hard about your priorities.  Once you have PMs you'll have a lot more options about the rest of your preps, and your life.  When the price goes to the moon, you will enjoy the ride of a lifetime, and have every reason to prosper.

Please DON'T do something silly like draining your IRA and/or running up a big debt or tax liability so that you can buy gold or silver.  Stay within your means, and be ready to be happy if gold stays at $1200 for a few more years, or even if it goes down a bit more.  This is a long term investment in your future and your freedom, not an opportunity to make a quick buck.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on January 23, 2014, 07:04:14 am
Thanks for sharing Silver.  I have noticed the near-complete absence of "Buy gold!" commercials on the radio these past months.  Indeed it seems to be a good time to add to my little stockpile.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Rarick on January 23, 2014, 09:22:05 am
Bullion!  Bazinga.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on January 27, 2014, 11:27:43 am
Got Gold?  Apparently the US fed does not.

It was a full year ago that Germany demanded the gold supposedly held in safety at the fed vaults in NY and in French vaults.  The fed owes Germany 300 tons of gold.  They promised to return it over a period of 7 years.  But they would not allow the Germans to see the gold when the Germans asked in early 2013.

Returning the gold over 7 years would mean shipping 40+ tons a year, every year.  Instead, in 2013 the fed shipped a total of 5 tons to Germany.  The French shipped 32 tons.

What's more, the gold bars were re-refined.  Whatever the excuse, this allowed the fed to ship different bars than the ones Germany deposited for safe keeping after WWII.  Refining is expensive and adds the security risks of shipping first to the refinery, then to Germany.  It makes no sense if the fed had the original bars.

If you have gold, count yourself lucky.  It seems the fed does not.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on February 04, 2014, 05:25:30 pm
It seems that COMEX, where paper gold is traded, is also running quite low on gold.

A stunning 20 tons of gold was delivered from the JP Morgan vaults the past two weeks.  That's 64,000 troy oz gone, probably east.  Registered gold bars don't usually leave the vaults.

The chart below shows the decline in the past year.  There is an interactive chart at 24hgold.com (http://www.24hgold.com/english/interactive_chart.aspx?title=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED%20GOLD&etfcode=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED&etfcodecom=gold)  As of Feb. 3 it shows less than 400,000 oz, down from over 3 million ozt just months ago.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on March 12, 2014, 10:21:32 pm
The same chart (I haven't checked its bona fides, yet) now shows a small increase to over 636,000 ozt available for trades.

Still a huge reduction from 1 year ago, when the stock was over 2.5 million ozt.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on March 31, 2014, 01:33:03 pm
I found this over at coinflation. It seems that more and more Japanese people are waking up to the inevitability of economic collapse too.

Japanese Prepare For "Abenomics Failure", Scramble To Buy Physical Gold

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-28/japanese-prepare-abenomics-failure-scramble-buy-physical-gold

Quote
According to the FT, "Tanaka Kikinzoku Jewelry, a precious metals specialist, reported that sales of gold ingots across seven of its shops are up more than 500% this month. At the companys flagship store in Ginza on Thursday, people queued for up to three hours to buy 500g bars worth about Y2.3m ($22,500). March has been the busiest month in Tanakas 120-year history."

Of course, while the Japanese consumers know what is the best defense against runaway inflation and purchasing power destruction, the government also knows that just like in India, where massive gold imports to satisfy local demand so skewed the current account deficit that India spent most of 2013 imposing gold capital controls, it simply needs to make gold purchases impossible in order to redirect spending into more Keynes-approved products and services.

However, for now Japan is happy just to crush its population's meager disposable income with soaring energy prices. Which also means the locals can allocate their personal capital in the most efficient way: one which discounts a very unpleasant future.

Investors are being drawn to the metal not just because of higher taxes, said Itsuo Toshima, an adviser to pension funds.Slowly and steadily, people are preparing for the worst, which is the failure of Abenomics." To protect the value of wealth, gold comes into play as an inflation hedge, and if the economy goes back to deflationary circumstances then, again, money seeking safe havens would flow into gold.
Wait, did someone in Japan finally admit the inevitable, i.e., that Abenomics will crash and burn in a pyre of runaway inflation and a crashing economy? Well, good. The problem is that when that moment happens, the response to the government's "all in" bet to led its population into the slaughter will mean that one will need lead far more than gold.

But we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. For now, we eagerly look forward to yet another major buyer of gold emerging on the global landscape, alongside China, India, and all other countries not transfixed by the dulcet tunes of central-planning and nominal paper profits.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on March 31, 2014, 02:55:08 pm
Another factor for the Japanese market is a consumption tax that will rise from 5% to 8% in April.

Japanese inflation went from essentially zero in 2012 to 1.2% in 2013.  Gold demand tripled from 6.6 tons to 21.3 tons.  Pension funds were big buyers.  Some Japanese can read the handwriting on the wall.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on May 02, 2014, 09:15:29 am
Peter Schiff riffs on a belief I've expressed many times here:

IF the gold price (silver price) is being manipulated, it is a tremendous gift to those of us who want to buy and hold metal.

The Gold Price is Fixed. So What? (http://www.lewrockwell.com/2014/05/peter-schiff/so-what/)

Quote
If gold price manipulation is true, then these banks and governments have done a tremendous favor to those who understand the gold market. Unexpected volatility and bull market corrections shake out those speculators who are trying to make a quick buck or who do not have the courage of their convictions. Investors have been given a multi-year free pass to learn about monetary policy, commodities, and investing while gold waits at affordable prices to be bought.

Perhaps absent these manipulations, gold would have grown into a frenzied mania as the whole Western world attempted to safeguard their wealth at once. In fact, I believe this is a likely outcome as the various schemes that are keeping the West afloat start to come apart.

If youre skeptical of big banks and big government, gold manipulation shouldnt put you off investing in sound money. Instead, consider it as you would a gift horse. Instead of looking it thoroughly in the mouth, smile and graciously accept your good fortune.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on November 07, 2014, 04:09:46 pm
Today, Nov. 7, gold shot up $23, and silver $0.24 to $15.66.  It's by far the best day in over a year.

But try to buy physical PMs at all at these prices.  The US Mint is sold out of silver coins.  Premiums are going through the roof.  Expect to pay 6% premium or more for 1 oz of gold, closer to 7% for silver rounds, and a whopping 25% premium for silver eagles.

Shortages and high premiums are signs that the market for physical PMs is diverging from the paper markets, where gold and silver futures are traded.  Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge claims that someone has been dumping massive amounts  (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-05/because-nothing-says-best-execution-dumping-15-billion-gold-futures-0030et)on the gold and silver paper market at 30 minutes past midnight EST.  Over $1.5 billion in some cases. 

That's not proof of manipulation, but it is rather curious.  The people at Casey Research warned that a steep drop in PM prices was likely, and their analysis was not based on manipulation. 

The dollar is rising sharply - not due to any real faith in the US economy or better government policies, but because right now the dollar looks a lot better than the Euro - where they are now charging negative interest rates on large private deposits - or the Yen. 

This run to the dollar is unlikely to last, but predictions are hard.  With oil below $80, many of the new shale and fracking plays won't be profitable, and will be mothballed or sold at firesale prices.  The same thing will happen to gold mines, but that is a tiny industry compared to oil and gas.

A big selloff in oil firms would trigger a massive slump in orders to heavy equipment makers.  Some, like Caterpillar, are well known, but most are specialty firms that you never heard of.  Watch for more rapid falls in the price of basic commodities like copper and steel as the heavy projects are delayed or cancelled.

Then there's Obombya, who has just infuriated the Saudis by writing secret love letters to the Ayatollah in Iran.  For 60 years the US and the House of Saud had an agreement - they sell oil for dollars, and the US props up the corrupt kingdom and defends their oil fields.  It's called the petrodollar - look it up.

The Sauds will view US overtures to Iran as betrayal and negation of any agreement.  Oil is a HUGE business.  If that business stops needing so many dollars, the demand for dollars will plummet, and we could see not only a market crash, but a ripping hyperinflation once everyman realizes how deeply we are screwed.

Yeah, PMs are cheap today.  If you don't have all you want, now might be a good time to buy.  Will they go lower?  Maybe.  Will they go higher?  Absolutely.  The trick is knowing when.

Or you can avoid tricks by trusting in basic economic and monetary theory, and realizing that the reasons for owning PMs today are as strong if not stronger than they have ever been.  If the recent plummets are the result of manipulation, they are a gift to small-fry investors like us. 

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Rarick on November 08, 2014, 06:16:32 am
all my "Paper holdings" are treated as such, something that might be burned to warm the house for a few moments......  I managed to get rid of all those when I realized what they actually were a few years ago when I woke up.  All my precious metal is in possession or at a secure location......subject to the usual loss of possession clauses of life.......

I remember reading that article where you mentioned that governments were probably manipulating at least the paper/ contracts part of the market and took steps.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: da gooch on November 09, 2014, 03:16:27 pm
and me with NO frns to spare ....  *sigh*  wouldn't you just know it?
At least my luck is consistant.
Looks like I had best have a yard sale.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on January 27, 2015, 11:59:47 am
In the latter part of 2014 the German central bank (Bundesbank) significantly stepped up their repatriation of gold from the vaults of the NY Fed.  Recall that in 2013 a palty 5 tons were shipped from NY.  In 2014, they shipped 85 tons (http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-01-19/news/58231491_1_gold-reserves-world-gold-council-gold-holdings).

That still leaves a lot.

Quote
Germany's gold reserves are the second-biggest in the world after those of the United States and totalled 3,384.2 tonnes this month, according to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council.

For decades the Bundesbank's gold holdings have been kept in the treasuries of other central banks -- in Paris, London and New York.

According to the German central bank's own data, 1,447 tonnes are stored at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York, 438 tonnes at the Bank of England in London and 307 tonnes at the Banque de France in Paris.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: phoenix227 on March 02, 2015, 06:07:19 pm
I LOVE GOOOOOOLLLD !!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sr0gNJ090JA
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on May 27, 2015, 12:43:57 pm
Austria joins the parade of nations repatriating their gold.  Venezuela, the Netherlands, and Germany have gone before them.  Politicians in France are calling for a return of French gold.

Austria thinks they own 280 tonnes of gold, but 80% of it is in Britain.

After severe criticism, the central bank has agreed to move about 110 tons back home to Austria. That will mean about 50% of Austrian gold is held in Austria.

We'll see how long it takes to get their gold.  I'm also keen to know if, like the Germans, they don't get the original bars back.

Austrian central bank to repatriate gold from Britain (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/05/22/austria-gold-idUKL5N0YD3R320150522)

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on August 21, 2015, 10:42:14 am
The Great Financial Catastrophe (https://goldswitzerland.com/the-great-financial-catastrophe/) by Egon von Greyerz.

I don't know Egon von Greyerz, but he write a compelling gloom-and-doom essay.

Quote
Most people are blissfully ignorant of the fact that 2007-8 was just a mild rehearsal of what we soon are going to experience. The additional $60 trillion in credit and printed money since then and the lowering of interest rates to zero have given the world the impression that all is now well again.

Let me be very clear, nothing is well. As a matter of fact in the 8 years since the start of the Great Financial Crisis the bubble economy has now properly spread to the worlds second largest economy China.  China has had exponential growth in debt from $2 trillion to $28T this century. A major part of this debt has financed white elephant projects and ghost cities. It would be surprising if the total Chinese bad debts were below $10 trillion before all of this is finished.

The bubble contagion has also totally infected most emerging markets. With massive growth in debts, a stronger dollar and collapsing commodity prices, almost every emerging economy is now starring into the abyss. As Michael Snyder of the Economic Collapse Blog recently pointed out, 23 stock markets around the world are now crashing. Of the 23, there are 22 emerging economies and the 23rd is Greece which definitively is not emerging but sinking into the Mediterranean. But dont believe that this epidemic will just affect EMs. No, the contagion is already spreading to the West and this autumn we will see stock market falls that will shock the world, spreading massive fear throughout the world economy. I expect this autumn to be the beginning of the end of the 100 year old failed experiment of manipulation and repression of the financial system by bankers and central banks.

So the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-9 will now transcend into the Great Financial Catastrophe. This could very well involve a total reset or more likely a collapse of the world economy, financial system and world political system. And it wont be orderly. It is likely to take a very long time and will involve bankruptcies of  major parts of the financial system as well as many major nations. It will also lead to social unrest, escalation of wars, major poverty and famine with the world population going down significantly.

I'm less certain it will be next month, although it certainly could be.  The cracks are many and growing wider, and the months of September and October have been cruel to stock markets for at least 500 years.

If he is right, and the collapse does come in September/October, it makes sense to hunker down, buy some gold, and not lock in any big deals or long-term debts. Gold is cheap right now, probably put in a bottom at just below $1100, and is now $1150 and rising.  Nothing is certain except the eventual destruction of the dollar.  The question is when, not if.

If he is right, the gold price will skyrocket, real estate values and commodity prices will plummet, and you'll be in a position to cherry pick by next spring. 

If he's wrong, you'll still have the gold, and can do with it what you want.

Good luck to all of us.  The coming storm looks like a really bad one.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 21, 2015, 02:12:27 pm

I'm less certain it will be next month, although it certainly could be.  The cracks are many and growing wider, and the months of September and October have been cruel to stock markets for at least 500 years.

If he is right, and the collapse does come in September/October, it makes sense to hunker down, buy some gold, and not lock in any big deals or long-term debts. Gold is cheap right now, probably put in a bottom at just below $1100, and is now $1150 and rising.  Nothing is certain except the eventual destruction of the dollar.  The question is when, not if.

If he is right, the gold price will skyrocket, real estate values and commodity prices will plummet, and you'll be in a position to cherry pick by next spring. 

If he's wrong, you'll still have the gold, and can do with it what you want.

Good luck to all of us.  The coming storm looks like a really bad one.

Peace,

Silver
It may be starting early. The DOW has dropped over 300 points (just over 2%) for two days straight. I think that the market "top" was in May. As much as I love PM's, I'm pretty set there. Lately, my strategy has been to solidify and reinforce my current preps, and stockpile cash. The cash (physical/not in the bank) will still be good in the initial phase, and just may be the only way to pay for anything. At least until that average Joe realizes that it's just colored paper.

Edit- HOLY CRAP! As of right now (4pm) the Dow has dropped an additional 200 points from my first posting. It is now down 530 points on the day (-3.12%). That's a heluva drop! Largest 1 day loss in over 4 years. :thrshocker:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on August 21, 2015, 03:23:19 pm
The PPT was probably taking Friday off to get a long weekend, knowing that they have their work cut out for them in September.

We'll see what happens Monday, and after...
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 21, 2015, 04:56:20 pm
The PPT was probably taking Friday off to get a long weekend, knowing that they have their work cut out for them in September.

We'll see what happens Monday, and after...
Indeed. :popcorn:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: da gooch on August 22, 2015, 12:27:32 pm
Not to broadcast my ignorance of economic terminology to loudly but ... PPT?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: StillaGhost on August 22, 2015, 08:18:37 pm
 
 
   Yeah well y'all note that oil bounced of 40 too , keep in mind that it went to 32 in '08. And some oil is already being discounted as deep as 36 , Iran just came fully online which will add to the glut.
 
  It;s going to get worse , much worse , start tracking the moving average ( Dow) and take note of the money coming off the peaks , a lot of that is going off-shore.
 
  Then you have all the markets in the " emerging and third world" sector , check how many of those are in free fall , the Asian theatre due to the Chinese devaluing the Yuan , the Eastern Euro ones dragged down by Greece the S. American ones by the drop in oil.
 
  And I disagree on precious metals , the market is being propped up by the players and that can't last forever.
 
  The Central Banks are tapped , there'll be no bailout this time.
 
   Just watch how the currency bubble ( check the float(s) sometime) and devaluing the Yuan affects the American worker.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on August 23, 2015, 06:16:47 am
Not to broadcast my ignorance of economic terminology to loudly but ... PPT?
It's jargon, I should have been more explicit.

PPT stands for Plunge Protection Team, the colloquial term for the Working Group on Financial Markets (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets).  The PPT was created by Executive Order in March 1988 by Ronald Reagan, in response to the crash of 1987.

The PPT has almost certainly metastasized well beyond the already dubious boundaries set out in the EO.  A 2005 report by Sprott Asset Management, The Visible Hand of Uncle Sam (http://www.illuminati-news.com/pdf/TheVisibleHand%5B1%5D.pdf), (41-page .PDF) documents the methods and provides evidence suggesting PPT action in (at least) 1989 (miraculous 1-day recovery after a crash), 1992 (on July 28 equity prices suddenly dropped after reports of plunging consumer confidence), 1998 (Long Term Capital Management crisis), 2001 (post 9/11), 2003 (pre-Iraq invasion), and 2008 (beginning of the Greater Depression).

They work though the large banks, buying massive quantities of stock market index futures contracts.  That lets them affect the overall market level without picking individual winning and losing stocks.  The use of futures contracts, a type of derivative, gives them more leverage.

Good, short question, long answer.  The Sprott report is worth reading if you want to see the facts of a conspiracy rather than conspiracy theories.  I found the linked copy on a tinfoil-hat website, but Sprott certainly did release that report.  I couldn't find it on the Sprott website.  The linked one appears legit.

Peace,

Silver

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on August 24, 2015, 09:15:54 am
The PPT was probably taking Friday off to get a long weekend, knowing that they have their work cut out for them in September.

We'll see what happens Monday, and after...
Indeed. :popcorn:

The DOW opened down nearly 1,000; the PPT has given a mighty shove to push it to -500 as of 10 AM.
This is most likely the beginning of the inevitable crash.  The problems that led to the panic of 2008 are not only still with us, but have been festering and growing much worse on a steady diet of zero interest rate policy by the fed.  The malinvestments have infested oil and gas, real estate, government bonds, corporate balance sheets, and much more.  The damage is deep and severe.

We have been in the eye of the hurricane; now we begin to pass through the storm wall again.  It looks to be a whopper.

Meanwhile, gold is holding steady and silver is down a little - silver is an industrial metal and is more susceptible to market and broad economy conditions than gold.  Gold is primarily an investment metal, with a much smaller fraction of industrial uses.

So I'm munching my popcorn and enjoying the spectacle of what may be the greatest trainwreck in human history.  Since most of my savings and investments are in silver and gold, I can take a page from the Mogambo Guru: 
Whee!  This investing stuff is easy!

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 24, 2015, 02:29:21 pm
As of right now (appx 3:30PM), the DOW is still down 660 points, or 4%. The Chinese markets lost 9% today. WOW! Like I said, this seems to be starting early. Maybe not though. I still think that there will be one more rally before it all comes crashing down. My best guess is that when it's all said and done, the DOW will settle at around 10k, but I have heard estimates of 5k-6k though. Time will tell.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: StillaGhost on August 24, 2015, 10:20:10 pm
As of right now (appx 3:30PM), the DOW is still down 660 points, or 4%. The Chinese markets lost 9% today. WOW! Like I said, this seems to be starting early. Maybe not though. I still think that there will be one more rally before it all comes crashing down. My best guess is that when it's all said and done, the DOW will settle at around 10k, but I have heard estimates of 5k-6k though. Time will tell.

 
   Oil is down to 38.24 , the dollar lost groun to both the Pound and the Euro , the bond yield is down to 2 percent , the Asian sector is still in freefall along with certain of the European and S.A. markets.
 
   Yeah it's imploding.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: MamaLiberty on August 25, 2015, 07:56:09 am
U.S. Equity Futures Surge After Global Rout, China Rate Cut
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2015/08/25/us-equity-futures-surge-after-global-rout-china-rate-cut/

Can kicked down the road a little farther, maybe.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: StillaGhost on August 25, 2015, 10:01:08 am
U.S. Equity Futures Surge After Global Rout, China Rate Cut
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2015/08/25/us-equity-futures-surge-after-global-rout-china-rate-cut/

Can kicked down the road a little farther, maybe.

 
 
  Yup , the first surge. Those who didn't get out early are likely to get out at the top of such surges so as to minimise the loss , and that money won't go back in until the floor is found.
 
 Oil is back up to almost 40 , that won't last long.By the end of October we may well see the 30 level.
 
  Gold is down 17 so far and the commodities market is getting hammered , less dividends will be paid out from the companies in the mining sector.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 25, 2015, 03:30:08 pm
ROLLERCOASTER!!

Keep your hands and feet inside the car at all times, please. :laugh:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Koxa2fsoqyM
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Silver on August 25, 2015, 05:42:25 pm
You ain't seen nothing yet  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cia_v4vxfE)

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 25, 2015, 05:50:40 pm
You ain't seen nothing yet  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cia_v4vxfE)
:laugh: :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: penguinsscareme on August 26, 2015, 03:15:40 pm
In case this really is it, good luck, everybody. Good luck to us all.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: da gooch on August 26, 2015, 06:15:35 pm
In case this really is it, good luck, everybody. Good luck to us all.

It's good to hear from you PSM.
Yes indeed Good Luck to us all and to all that we love.

Stay in touch all.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on August 27, 2015, 07:01:03 am
In case this really is it, good luck, everybody. Good luck to us all.

It's good to hear from you PSM.
Yes indeed Good Luck to us all and to all that we love.

Stay in touch all.

As long as there is juice in my laptop battery and the internet is kickin', I'll be reading and posting.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 27, 2015, 01:54:05 pm
In case this really is it, good luck, everybody. Good luck to us all.

It's good to hear from you PSM.
Yes indeed Good Luck to us all and to all that we love.

Stay in touch all.

As long as there is juice in my laptop battery and the internet is kickin', I'll be reading and posting.
Ditto. :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 28, 2015, 05:02:28 am
FYI. DOW futures are down over 100pts before the bell. Let's see if the last two days of gains are eroded away today.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: knobster on August 28, 2015, 06:30:51 am
FYI. DOW futures are down over 100pts before the bell. Let's see if the last two days of gains are eroded away today.

 :popcorn:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Moonbeam on August 28, 2015, 02:22:34 pm
We have been in the eye of the hurricane; now we begin to pass through the storm wall again.  It looks to be a whopper.... So I'm munching my popcorn and enjoying the spectacle of what may be the greatest trainwreck in human history...

Silver, if the whole world (or just the USA) implodes, and the US dollar is rendered completely useless, what would happen to folks like me living in their homes? Would the banks still operate collecting mortgages? Would there be a reset, if you will? Would someone pretty damn scary come along to remove us from our home?
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 28, 2015, 02:30:40 pm
Silver, if the whole world (or just the USA) implodes, and the US dollar is rendered completely useless, what would happen to folks like me living in their homes? Would the banks still operate collecting mortgages? Would there be a reset, if you will? Would someone pretty damn scary come along to remove us from our home?
Being removed from your home will be the least of your worries in that situation. Most likely, they will be too busy to worry about the likes of you and yours anyways. Or me and mine. At least until a replacement is forced upon the rabble.

What will replace the dollar? Who knows. The Amero, perhaps? Maybe this is the run-up to a one world currency? :dontknow: I doesn't really matter to me. My silver and gold will still hold value. :mellow:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on August 28, 2015, 05:15:26 pm
We have been in the eye of the hurricane; now we begin to pass through the storm wall again.  It looks to be a whopper.... So I'm munching my popcorn and enjoying the spectacle of what may be the greatest trainwreck in human history...

Silver, if the whole world (or just the USA) implodes, and the US dollar is rendered completely useless, what would happen to folks like me living in their homes? Would the banks still operate collecting mortgages? Would there be a reset, if you will? Would someone pretty damn scary come along to remove us from our home?

Well ... it could get interesting.

The banks don't want _bad_ loans on their books because it looks bad to the stock holders.
If they reposes a house, they want to turn it around and get it off their books as soon as
possible. We've seen in some cases where there are no buyers, they are slow to reposes.

If this is a world wide economic crash, buyers will be few and far between.

Also, if there is hyper inflation before hand, you may be able to pay off the mortgage
with practically nothing. There was a case during the hyper inflation at the end of the
Weimar Republic where a farmer paid off the mortgage on his farm with a single egg.

That's right, 1 egg.

The old debts don't get re-written to adjust for inflation, and the value of real goods
rises with devaluation of the currency. So... if you can produce something of practical
value and we do have hyper inflation, things might turn out well as far as the house goes.

The whole thing is scary to contemplate, but there could be some bright spots if it
all goes down the drain.

Bear


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: slidemansailor on August 28, 2015, 08:07:28 pm
Bear, that's impressive on the Wiemar egg story.  Talk about your proverbial nest egg....

DL, imagine the plight of the Sheriff, elected by the people of his county ...  65% of the families cannot pay mortgages or rent. International bankers who are off in some bunkers somewhere tell the sheriff to kick his neighbors out of their homes. The sheriff is not only out-gunned, he cannot possibly pull it off even if he were Superman.

I think the default is that the squatters become the new owners. The bankers are out the paper they printed before the crash.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: StillaGhost on August 28, 2015, 10:56:35 pm
My silver and gold will still hold value. :mellow:

 
 
  Just perhaps not as much value as you put out to get it. This has the potential to end up as what investment will hurt you least in the end run.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on August 29, 2015, 12:00:14 am
Bear, that's impressive on the Wiemar egg story.  Talk about your proverbial nest egg....

DL, imagine the plight of the Sheriff, elected by the people of his county ...  65% of the families cannot pay mortgages or rent. International bankers who are off in some bunkers somewhere tell the sheriff to kick his neighbors out of their homes. The sheriff is not only out-gunned, he cannot possibly pull it off even if he were Superman.

I think the default is that the squatters become the new owners. The bankers are out the paper they printed before the crash.

My best,  Wild-Assed-Guess, is that if the economy collapses such that most folks can't pay either full rent
or the full payment on their mortgages, some paperwork slight-of-hand will be invented to make it "ok and legal"
to stay in the homes.

1. If there is no buyers, there is no point to kicking people out other than
    asserting property rights.

2. People who have been living in a place and paying for it are more likely
    to take better care than the squatters who will move in when it's empty.

3. A small partial payment is still bigger than zero.

4. If the homeowner / renter signs a contract addendum promising to
    catch up on the debt when things improve, the contract becomes a
    financial asset, and we call all pretend that it has value, so the bank /
    land lord is really not out all that money (wink, wink).

5. If the Sheriff does evict large numbers of people from their homes,
    he now has a huge homeless problem on his hands where before it was
    only a small homeless problem.

6. In the West, outside of the urban centers, quite a few people are armed,
    and might not take well to be evicted. All it takes is one incident where
    neighbors come to the aid of a neighbor being evicted for the deputies
    to discovered they are out numbered, out gunned, and surrounded. Such
    an incident would change the political landscape.

7. Home owners are also likely voters. They won't forget being evicted at
    election time. Sheriffs know this.

Off the top of my head, those are my ideas why mass evictions won't happen.

Bear
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 29, 2015, 03:21:15 pm
My silver and gold will still hold value. :mellow:

 
 
  Just perhaps not as much value as you put out to get it. This has the potential to end up as what investment will hurt you least in the end run.
A common misconception. Without manipulation, gold never goes up or down. At least not much. The currency that it's pegged to (US dollar) gets inflated/deflated.

In reality, there is no such thing as an inflation of prices, relative to gold. There is such a thing as a depreciated paper currency.

Lysander Spooner

For more than two thousand years golds natural qualities made it mans universal medium of exchange. In contrast to political money, gold is honest money that survived the ages and will live on long after the political fiats of today have gone the way of all paper.

Hans F. Sennholz

Gold is forever. It is beautiful, useful, and never wears out. Small wonder that gold has been prized over all else, in all ages, as a store of value that will survive the travails of life and the ravages of time.

James Blakeley

Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: MamaLiberty on August 29, 2015, 04:38:01 pm
Gold is forever. It is beautiful, useful, and never wears out.

Hmmm, except that the metal is very soft and does wear away.  It may not actually vanish from existence, but the fine particles that wear off in a pocket, etc. will not likely be recovered and will therefore not be useful again. Same for silver, actually. Someone might give some thought to fixing that problem. :)
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: StillaGhost on August 29, 2015, 04:40:45 pm
My silver and gold will still hold value. :mellow:

 
 
  Just perhaps not as much value as you put out to get it. This has the potential to end up as what investment will hurt you least in the end run.
A common misconception. Without manipulation, gold never goes up or down. At least not much. The currency that it's pegged to (US dollar) gets inflated/deflated.

In reality, there is no such thing as an inflation of prices, relative to gold. There is such a thing as a depreciated paper currency.

Lysander Spooner

For more than two thousand years golds natural qualities made it mans universal medium of exchange. In contrast to political money, gold is honest money that survived the ages and will live on long after the political fiats of today have gone the way of all paper.

Hans F. Sennholz

Gold is forever. It is beautiful, useful, and never wears out. Small wonder that gold has been prized over all else, in all ages, as a store of value that will survive the travails of life and the ravages of time.

James Blakeley

 
 
  Yeah , yeah , yeah.......I'm not unfamilar with Spooner etc. and I've heard the line of reasoning prior to this. Thing is I live in the *REAL world* where gold at 700 an ounce costs me less than gold at 15 hundred an ounce.
 
  And the FACT remains Dl that if you're in for an average of say 1000$ an ounce and it drops to 500 then you've lost 50% of your investment.
 
 Real world effects are....well........real world effects.500 buys less beans than a 1000.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: StillaGhost on August 29, 2015, 04:47:21 pm
Gold is forever. It is beautiful, useful, and never wears out.

Hmmm, except that the metal is very soft and does wear away.  It may not actually vanish from existence, but the fine particles that wear off in a pocket, etc. will not likely be recovered and will therefore not be useful again. Same for silver, actually. Someone might give some thought to fixing that problem. :)

 
 
  And in addition and from a completely utilitarian standpoint gold is completely useless due to the factors you have cited , can't cast slugs or drop shot with it , too soft to make a knife out of , or any other tool for that matter......I guess you could tie a chunk on a fishing line for a sinker though , so maybe not completely useless.
 
  You can't chew and digest it either , personally after an economic crash if someone attempted to barter with me an all they had was gold it would take a great deal of it to even pique' my interest , a fifty lb bag of beans or rice , ingots of lead ,linotype ,sheet steel or copper , pic iron , med supplies ,ammunition , a good knife or other good tools , solar panels and ancillary power generation equipment etc.etc.etc......
 
   Those would interest me infinitely more.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Tahn L. on August 29, 2015, 05:24:51 pm


 
 
  And in addition and from a completely utilitarian standpoint gold is completely useless due to the factors you have cited ,
[/quote]

As I have said before, probably on this very thread, 16k gold makes great fillings for teeth. It's hard enough to last and soft enough to work with.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: StillaGhost on August 29, 2015, 05:45:52 pm


 
 
  And in addition and from a completely utilitarian standpoint gold is completely useless due to the factors you have cited ,

As I have said before, probably on this very thread, 16k gold makes great fillings for teeth. It's hard enough to last and soft enough to work with.
[/quote]
 
   Ok so far we have fishing sinkers and dental fillings , anyone else able to come up with actual utilitarian uses for gold? I guess a brick of it would make a good doorstop.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: heyoka on August 29, 2015, 07:21:32 pm
Gold is often used in high end electronics for relays, switches and connectors for low impedance, corrosion resistant gas tight connections. The computer your reading this on probably has gold in the film cable conductor alloy going to the heads in the disk drive. If it's a laptop there's probably gold in the film cable conductors from the keyboard to the display.
Pharmaceutical uses of gold include symptomatic relief for arthritis sufferers via injections.
Golds malleability makes it a favorite of artisans and craftsman for decorative inlays on all sorts of objet d'art, including firearms and edged weapons.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 29, 2015, 07:40:54 pm
Silver is used in TONS of consumer goods. Also, it is the best known conductor of electricity, the highest thermal conductivity, the highest reflectivity of any metal, AND has antibacterial qualities.

Since 1964, (on average) the value of a silver dime will buy you a loaf of bread and a silver quarter will buy a gallon of gas.

As for gold, SaG, in a "unmanipulated" market, if gold loses half of it's value, it will still buy the same amount of goods. The same number of aforementioned beans. That would be chalked up to deflation. I live in the real world too. :mellow:

PM's may be worthless in a SHTF scenario, but will be extremely useful in a rebuilding phase. As I have said MANY times before as general advice- Always make sure that all of your preps are in order before purchasing PM's.

EDIT- btw, I may be slow in responding for a few days. My damned cat chewed my power cord to my laptop. I only have a 1/4 charge right now. I have ordered a replacement, but it's not supposed to be here until wednesday. :angry4:
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: StillaGhost on August 29, 2015, 10:05:41 pm
 
 
   You've missed the point there DL , and in complete meltdown things such as precious metals won't be so precious.  And if you recall I've stated in the past that folks might want to see to their actual preps prior to such investment. You might also recall that I've also spoken previously as regards the manipulation of the market in precious metals.
 
   The precious metals are a commodity , and the commodities market can be highly volatile , metals have historically gone up when the stock market goes down and I've been around long enough to have seen the market rise and fall and a lot of folks get hurt by holding gold too long or not long enough. Have I invested in it in the past , of course but I treat it just as I do stocks i.e.dollar cost average in with a target sell level in mind and get out at that level.
 
  But sock away Krugerands or Maple Leafs under the bed ( so to speak)........nope. And D.L. , back off with the " you're stupid" tone , do you *really* think you need to explain deflation to me?I mean really? Or market manipulation for that matter.
 
  Heyoka , while I'll give you those current uses they are current and unlikely to apply during a complete societal meltdown.
 
  If we end up driven back to a barter society trade goods of a wide variety are quite likely to be infinitely more valuable than precious metals , or precious stones for that matter.
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: Bear on August 29, 2015, 11:16:17 pm
IMHO, there are two times when having gold or silver could be very useful.

1. During a hyperinflation when faith in fiat currency is lost. My crystal ball is murky,
    and I'm not sure that we will have hyperinflation when TSHTF next time. I think
    that this time the hyperinflation phase could be very short before the currency goes
    away completely.

2. During the rebuilding phase, after the worst of the collapse has passed. People
    will need money to get beyond barter, and they won't want paper money. Gold
    and silver have met this need, repeatedly, over the past 5,000 years.  Could happen
    again.

In the worst part of a collapse, anything which is not immediately useful will be passed
over by most folks. This could be a real opportunity for forward thinking folks will to have
their reward later, if they take payment in something not immediately useful.

Bear


Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: StillaGhost on August 30, 2015, 06:09:42 am
IMHO, there are two times when having gold or silver could be very useful.

1. During a hyperinflation when faith in fiat currency is lost. My crystal ball is murky,
    and I'm not sure that we will have hyperinflation when TSHTF next time. I think
    that this time the hyperinflation phase could be very short before the currency goes
    away completely.

2. During the rebuilding phase, after the worst of the collapse has passed. People
    will need money to get beyond barter, and they won't want paper money. Gold
    and silver have met this need, repeatedly, over the past 5,000 years.  Could happen
    again.

In the worst part of a collapse, anything which is not immediately useful will be passed
over by most folks. This could be a real opportunity for forward thinking folks will to have
their reward later, if they take payment in something not immediately useful.

Bear

 
  Both are quite valid considerations.........
Title: Re: Got gold?
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 30, 2015, 06:59:30 am

 
 
 And D.L. , back off with the " you're stupid" tone , do you *really* think you need to explain deflation to me?I mean really? Or market manipulation for that matter.

So sorry. I believe in the "golden rule". Treat others as you expect to be treated yourself. I am pretty sure that you ascribe to that philosophy as well, so when YOU wrote to me in such a manner, I responded in kind. I figured that was how you wanted to be responded to, since you were writing to ME like I was som